Blogs kill books. At least, that’s what I always thought. Between 1988 and 2000, I wrote four1 books and edited a couple of volumes. In 2002, I started blogging, and I haven’t done a book since then.
But, in the mysterious way of things, it turns out that blogs generate books, or at least book contracts. In comments at Crooked Timber not long ago, Miracle Max wrote
The discredited ideas theme really needs a book, and JQ appears to be the ideal person to write it.
I will even contribute the title: “Dead Ideas from New Economists.” No charge.
Brad DeLong picked it up, and a couple of days later I got an email from Seth Ditchik at Princeton University Press suggesting that it really would be a good idea. Now, we have a contract, and we’re going to use Max’s suggested title.
Of course, it’s much easier to promise to write a book than to actually write one, and I still have a more-than-full-time commitment to work on climate change and sustainable management. So, I have to find some spare time, and the blog-book conflict reappears. My brilliant(?) solution is to focus my blogging on the “discredited ideas” theme, and leave blogging on other topics for another day.
I plan to pop up various snippets as blog posts, crowdsourcing the task of pointing out, and hopefully correcting, my numerous errors. Past experiences suggests there are legions of commenters eager to do this free of charge and unsolicited, but I’m going to use my allocation of free books to reward the 10 commenters who do most to save me from error and to steer me in the right direction. Of course, Miracle Max will get the first one.
1 Actually five, if you count my self-published book of satirical songs and verse, Bobby, I Hardly Knew You
John Quiggin 
Congrats, John.
be sure to write a bit about the great moderation,
as steve keen pointed out in november 08, this piece deserves a prize of some sort
Welcome to ‘the Great Moderation’ – January 19, 2007
Historians will marvel at the stability of our era
… we are living through one of the great transformations of modern history. Almost unnoticed, most of the industrialised world, especially the Anglo-Saxon part of it, has enjoyed a period of unprecedented economic stability.
Recessions were once as frequent and as regular as World Cups or general elections. Now, like hurricanes in Hereford, they hardly happen.
… something historic has happened in the past quarter of a century. The business cycle has not been abolished, but in the US and the UK, it has been stretched, to improbably great lengths. In the process, the wild fluctuations of employment, output, inflation and interest rates have been firmly damped. The peaks of inflation have been lower, and the troughs of output shallower.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/article1294376.ece
a recent gem surely?
What a good idea – free book – signed?
7.30 Report did a segment on this tonight, with Alan Fels and the boss of Dymocks retailers coming out in favour of more deregulation regardless of cultural impact and Tim Winton and other writers arguing the opposite.
Interestingly, 7.30 Report then did a report on Turnbull’s pathetic attempt to direct scrutiny away from himself and his cronys, in the resurrection of Howards old “debt truck” dinosaur of the nineties.
Fortunately, the ABC hasn’t quite surrendered its journalistic principles in the way of the shabby Murdoch press, so Ross Gittens was called upon to comment, observing that the far more significant foreign debt figure had increased three fold during the Howard watch, something seemingly missed by Turnbull.
But, and this is where the connection with Fels et al as to deregulation of cultural industries and Turnbull’s attack on fiscal stimulus government (rather than private) spending dovetail, because both fit with neoliberal ideology, which demands both disintegration of responsible government in favour of open slather for big business, and the death of cultural memory for the same resistance-ending reasons.
Government only exists to”discipline” the masses, including and desirably thru poverty and ignorance, the emancipationary aspects of democracy are only impediments to the gains of the few.
Smiths
are you sure you have this right
“Recessions were once as frequent and as regular as World Cups or general elections. Now, like hurricanes in Hereford, they hardly happen.”
ha! In Australia there has been four major recessions since 1970 and none between the great depression and 1970…. this article is in jest?
Paul Walter,
I agree…the government is so out of step with the majority opinion one can only suspect it currently exists to “discipline the masses”
Ill quote Andrew Leigh (political economy of tax reform in Australia 2006).
“This paper seeks to shed light on a puzzle in Australian public finance. Despite the
fact that Australian public opinion is more strongly in favour of social spending than
tax cuts, the last two Australian budgets have seen substantial reductions in top
marginal tax rates. One possible reason that the tax cutting debate is so out of step
with popular opinion may be that many commentators do not realise how low the
income of the median Australian really is.”
and
“despite the fact that
popular opinion in 2004 did not favour tax cuts, the government nonetheless implemented
highly-regressive tax cuts in both 2005 and 2006. I suggest that one of the reasons for this
could be that public debates often misrepresent the income of the typical Australian.
Contrary to figures that are often reported, median income (the income of the typical
Australian adult) is merely $27,000 per year.
From an AC Neilson survey quoted in this article…
”
2005: “Economists predict that the Federal Government will have a surplus to spend in
next month’s budget. Would you prefer to see this extra money used to provide an
income tax cut, or would you prefer the money to be spent on services?” Responses
were 29 per cent tax cut, 68 per cent services, 4 per cent don’t know.
”
Leigh noted from a number of AC Neilson surveys voters opposed tax cuts two to one.
and results of Leigh’s study?
“the tax cuts
in the 2005 and 2006 budgets were responsible for about a half-point rise in the post-taxgini coefficient.5”
So inequality worsened and voters didnt want it??
Appears so. Is this really the discipline we are getting from government?
So lets look at the real story on average income?
Table 2: What’s Average?
Typical person’s income (median adult income) $27,000
Use mean instead of median $37,000
Also ignore those who don’t work $42,000
Also ignore those who work part-time $56,000
The first switch that is frequently made is to use the mean income instead of the median income.The second switch is to exclude incomes of those not working.The third switch is to exclude those who work part-time.
Lies, damned lies and statistics.
DOn’t worry, the Great Moderation is Chapter 3, and the article you quote is one of the prime exhibits. I’ve already posted on this.
That article is a ripper. Stay tuned for the next exciting episode. How a few men in political power can ignore the majority of academic recommendations on policy also.
As well as The Great Moderation, I hope Murdoch’s ABC-subsidised “Golden Age of Freedom” will get taken out the back and asked to do the decent thing.
i probably did read about it here first john, but you know how it is,
you’ve read it but you cant think where and a search never seems to turn up the one you thought it would
Ok – Im poting the def of “the great Moderation” from Wiki
“The Great Moderation was a phrase sometimes used to describe the perceived end to economic volatility created by the new 21st century banking systems.[1] The term was coined by Harvard economist James Stock.[2] The validity of this concept as a permanent shift has been questioned by the economic crisis of 2008 and the financial crisis of 2007-2008.[3]
In the mid 1980s major economic variables such as GDP, industrial production, monthly payroll employment and the unemployment rate began a decline in volatility.[4] One research group viewed the causes of the Moderation to be “improved policy (20-30%), identifiable good luck in the form of productivity and commodity price shocks (20-30%), and other unknown forms of good luck that manifest themselves as smaller reduced-form forecast errors (40-60%).”[5] The greater predictability in economic and financial performance was caused firms to hold less capital and to be less concerned about liquidity positions.[citation needed] This, in turn, is thought to have been a factor in encouraging increased debt levels and a reduction in risk premia required by investors.”
Now I need a link to Prof’s post because I cant find it. I dispute the “great moderation ” Smiths, just as I dispute “the great moderation” in your link posted above.
This is utter nonsense. The peaks and troughs have been more volatile and caused more disruption since 1970, than before.
For goodness sake…is this “great moderation” just another lame exercise in Murdoch inspired brainwashing
“You are all richer than you have ever been! Breathe deeply and and at the sound of my voice…you will beleive…you are all better off than ever in history. You have never been better off. The business cycles are smaller. You are all richer. Dont you notice all the imported household appliances you can now buy to help you? Breathe deeply. You are not underemployed. You like life this way, to work one day a week…..breathe deeply, in, out and imagine the freedom and at the sound of my voice, counting to three, you will become wide awake, you will be immensely grateful and happy…. and you will remember nothing!
Yes Mr Murdoch. Whatever you write. Im stupid, hypnotised and happy. Everythings just fine.
Well I haven’t done a book since 2000. Blog, blog, blog, that’s all I do. But I haven’t, yet, found that “blogs generate books, or at least book contracts” – just can’t get “another damned, thick, square book” out of the watermelon blog (even though I inserted my last, unpublished book manuscript into my blog by popping “up various snippets as blog post”). Still I live in hope that some day one of my many visitors from the John Quiggin blog is going to turn out to be a publisher with a big cheque book and an empty press, and those snippets are going to find their way back into a book faster than you can say “Decline and fall”.