Abbott out

Tony Abbott’s resignation must surely mark the end for Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership and therefore, in all probability, for the deal with Labor over the ETS.

Ultra-optimistic scenario: Turnbull quits and Abbott is installed, the deal is cancelled and Rudd calls a double dissolution based on the original bill, winning easily. Since the original bill clearly needs amendment he doesn’t use the joint sitting mechanism but instead makes an agreement with the Greens who now have the balance of power.

Rudd’s preferred scenario: Turnbull holds on long enough to deliver seven senate votes tomorrow and pass the watered-down ETS. He is promptly rolled and the Liberal party splits. Abbott as new leader, starts with a commitment to repeal the scheme, but abandons it because this is the last thing big business wants. Labor reduces the divided opposition to rump status at the next election, and ends up dealing with three or four different parties in the Senate, needing only one to get its legislation through. This is probably more plausible than mine, but the timing will be very tight tomorrow. The decision is to be made at 3:45pm, apparently.

80 thoughts on “Abbott out

  1. One last comment ( should be at “lunatics” thread as a continuance of Freelander and myself’s conversation about Abbott’s pathology )
    After quickly consigning Turnbull to the dust bin of history because of Grech,
    Guy Rundle reckons that the elevation of Abbott to rebuild the libs ignores the reality that the electorate regards Abbott as “a prick”. I include following in light of a previous conversation with Freelander, re the Abbott pathology.
    Rundle continues:
    ” … The Banton stuff, the teenage (non) paternity case, the RU 486 sleaziness, the Pauline Hanson stitch-up, the excess aggressiveness he shows toward female opponents; they all ring alarm bells, especially with women voters”.
    I don’t think this has been a sorted-out lad, at all, particularly if that alleged homophobia during seminary days is also true.

  2. @paul walter
    Pauls says “and we CAN call it “Tory”, now ?”

    Well only in the sense that mature aristocracies after a few hundred years of close association and natural genetic evolution tend to end up stark raving mad.

  3. Pr Q said:

    Rudd’s preferred scenario: Turnbull holds on long enough to deliver seven senate votes tomorrow and pass the watered-down ETS. He is promptly rolled and the Liberal party splits. Abbott as new leader, starts with a commitment to repeal the scheme, but abandons it because this is the last thing big business wants. Labor reduces the divided opposition to rump status at the next election, and ends up dealing with three or four different parties in the Senate, needing only one to get its legislation through.

    That accords with my (hastily revised post-bedlam) prediction. Prior to that I have repeatedly predicted that Turnbull will prevail in both ETS policy and LP leadership politics. I think he will fall over the line, presumably exhausted.

    The LP rebels have no electable candidate. The delusionists have the whole weekend to ruefully regret last weeks bender. It only needs a dozen or so to start having buyers remorse when a candidate like Tony Abbot is on offer.

    I predict that Hockey will NOT stand for leader of the LP. I dont think he fancies sipping delusionist Kool Aid from the post-Turnbull LP’s poisoned chalice. It’s way to early to sing out Hey Joe…

    The revolt has no legs. It represents a majority of the base but a minority of the LP primary vote. And a dramatically smaller minority of the LP’s total potential vote catchment area. It will also be opposed by LP donors and interest groups who have invested heavily in keeping the generous concessions extracted out of Rudd.

    I am unsure of the electoral math for the half-Senate election. But surely another big 54/46 TPP victory for the ALP in the 2010 election will allow it to rule outright in the next Parliament? Therefore obviating the need for “dealing with three or four different parties in the Senate”. It will be able to get its legislation through on its own numbers, no?

    Or will the ALP have to deal with the Greens holding the balance of power. That was Anthony Green’s prediction, made way back in the halcyon days of JUL 09.

  4. Hey Jack – sorry no ref to politics or economics but you just mentioned a great song…

    Hey Joe, where you goin’ with that gun in your hand
    Hey Joe, I said where you goin’ with that gun in your hand
    I’m going down to shoot my old lady
    You know, I’ve caught her messin’ around with another man

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