168 thoughts on “Election open forum”

  1. It was depressing turning up at a large rural booth and the only visible presence were the LNP. This is Queensland after all.

    What strikes me as very unusual in the economic debate was the line of “our vision for the country is that our surplus will be bigger than your surplus”. Doesn’t running government surpluses cause dissaving in the private sector that has to be met by net borrowing in that sector.
    And where was the debate on managing aggregate demand, investment and efficiency to take the country to a more sustainable footing.

    And why, with unemployment and underemployment rampant in our community, are the least capable made to personally carry the burden of a failure of through the abandonment of full-employment as the goal of government. Back of the envelope numbers: 10% underemployed from 10million workforce * (min wage – new start) $300 * 52 weeks gives $16billion.

    Who’s really paying for those surpluses?

  2. I am almost ashamed to be an Australian after this terrible race to the bottom by both major parties. I am particularly disappointed to see the ALP agree to defer the review of the appallingly inequitable Commonwealth school funding “scheme” and the shameful treatment of refugees. (By the way, where have the churches been during the debate on some of these most desperate and needy people?) I can almost forgive the caving in to the medicos because of their political influence – but there has been no debate on the fairness of providing GPs (who are just another small business) with the protection and unaccountable financial handouts that they have been promised by both parties. And as for the miners – Thursday’s Fin Review showed how hollow those cries of protest were. Twiggy Forrest, the spokesman for the poor over-taxed miners, runs companies that have not paid a cent of tax for years. I could go on – but won’t.
    It has been a very dispiriting election.

  3. John, I am a bit more optimistic and give Labor more than an even chance of winning outwright. But on another note what I am more concerned about is the proposed Lend Lease development for Barangaroo (former Hungry Mile docklands in Sydney) which is absolute crap. In my opinion there should be a nature reserve rather than more high rise buildings. Time to stop the rot.

  4. I walked to the school where the voting booth was located, chose not to receive any pamphlets on how to waste my vote, and then went inside and wasted my vote anyway 😦
    I mean, how do you decide whether “Family First” should come before or after “Climate Sceptics Party”? Both came before the Liberals though; I’m still traumatised by the scenes of the religious experience of Costello with Hillsong and Howard with Exclusive Brethren…

    If the Libs do get in, I doubt very much that they will continue Kevin Rudd’s practice of providing diplomatic jobs for both ex MPs from both major political parties. We couldn’t have that, could we?

  5. Well I am feeling a little hopeful now.

    I had three greens handing out on the booth today (all day). I live in blue seat (a dumb blue seat because it is longstanding true blue but its fast becoming the most congested overdeveloped true blue seat around – home to TA and BB – second only to the North Shore I imagine) but we had more helpers and more people asking for a HTV.

    Liberal has promised nothing to this seat (zip dollars for transport for decades of loyalty around here) nor Labor (zip for the seats disloyalty). On the other hand dear old Benelong almost next door went marginal and hey presto its been promised millions and millions of dollars for transport infrastructure.

    Just like that.

    There are some really dumb people that live in my seat….they dont know how modern politics plays out between the two majors. There is no big vision from either major party. Its just vote buying from one election to the next.

    This seat is Mackellar.

    If people dont change nothing else will.

  6. I know this is off-topic, but I’ll keep it brief. This is sick, what this guy Ken Cuccinelli is trying to do. He is the Virginia Attorney General, and he has been trying to get the all of the emails made or received by climate research scientist, Michael Mann, when Mann worked at the UVA. But, that’s the mindset.

  7. Similar to Don Oats. Was too irritated to take how to vote cards, avoided the cardies, took my time to work through the senate. Now we wait.

  8. I am a swinging voter in the marginal seat of Greenway in NSW, have been genuinely disgusted by the negative campaign on both sides. After voting for Kevin in 07, I decided to give Julia a go until I arrived at my local school to vote. The school fence was wrapped in more negative plastic signage and it reminded me how she stabbed Kevin in the back in his first term and what a crappy negative campaign this has been. At the ballot box I voted for Tony not because I thought he was better, but because I did not want more negative politics from Labour if they win, who knows how many leaders we would have gone through by the next election, the people want vision and a plan not negativity.

  9. On 1 December 2009 when Abbott won the liberal leadership by 1 vote, who would have expected that the 2010 election would not have Rudd as the sitting PM, and have asute pundits such as Richo changing their minds on who will win almost hourly on election eve. Richo is tipping labour by a nose or a hung parliament?

    What more, if many on this blog are to be believed, the opposition leader is ignorant and unfit for office and this is obvious to all. Are the Liberals close to winning despite Abbott’s efforts? That is what some on this blog seem to believe.

    As Richo explain in an op-ed today, in 1971, when he started out, 10% of voters were swinging voters. He now puts the figure for swinging voters above 30%.

    Looking past today, winning the 2013 election will require the labour party to develop more insight into the people who might vote for them rather than those that do vote for them time and again no matter what and just sneer at those that do not.

    The “Listen here stupid…” communications approach used by some on this blog is not a political strategy to either retain or win back elected office.

  10. The real Julia’s latest scare tactic is claiming voting for Abbott will see work choices return.

    Does a labour and greens controlled senate ever plan to pass such a law?

  11. How anyone can even think of voting the scam artists in again is beyond me ,after all they did try to sign us u to a treaty that would have handed our country over to the eu luckily the climate gate scam was busted and showed it was a fraud which of course they knew all along as they are still pushing it ,Gillard is a full on Marxist and was the head of the communist party read her writings it states she will use the Labor party to gain power ,now she is Fabian Socialist like the worst dictators in history ,they lied to us about everything and the green scam is the greatest con in history and was proved to be as fake as they are.All the Labor people said Krudd was great we saw how that turned out even Labor kicked him out ,shows how bad they are at judging anything ,watch those 10 ft waves petals ,and go on u tube and look up eu agenda 21 that’s what your voting for .

  12. John, further to my last comment I should have stressed that any future proposal with respect to the Headland Park the Approved Concept Plan states: ‘The future design of the park will include forms that interpret the pre-existing built forms and shoreline’. In other words a ‘natural reserve’ nothing less and nothing more.

  13. @Neil of Greenway
    Dear Neal,in a nutshell you have put the reason for the shout-in-your-face style of electioneering we have all had to endure .

    you made up your mind at the last minute?

    you voted on an emotional whim for a party (personality) that shadow shifted uncosted policies in open contempt for the electorate.

    you trusted “trust me”.

  14. Banish those gloomy thoughts! There are reasons to be cheerful.

    Apparently a new branch in the philosophy of science has emerged: Strocchiology. Formally defined as “looking over how right or wrong one has bee…a peculiar science known to insiders as Strocchiology”.

    And the results of this method have been fruitful over the past few electoral cycles. They point to a reasonably comfortable ALP victory.

    That noted Strocchiologist, Jack Strocchi, posted this comment at Larvatus Prodeo a week or so ago. Its a kind of archeological dig showing the workings out of the Strocchi-ological method, otherwise known as Back of the Envelope social science.

    As we enter the home straight I want to review my predictions about this election made over the past year or so and put them on the public record for analysis, criticism and acclaim or ridicule.

    I do this both to get in some early bragging rights (Alter Ego: careful, don’t count your chickens before they are hatched, Ego: get it while you can]. But also to promote accountability in psephological science. Economics, politics and anthropology are blighted by the chronic unwillingness of practioners to subject their theories to predictive scrutiny. Apart from Pr Q who is a striking exception and to whom we are all in debt for his willingness to go out on a limb.

    Basically the ALP will win because incumbents usually win, especially if the economy is doing alright. The ALP should have cruised to a big victory (ALP 53 L/NP 47), had they passed an ETS of sorts and kept Rudd in as leader. As it is they will probably get a comfortable victory – I predicted ALP 52 L/NP 48 after Gillard got in.

    Back in NOV 2009, when Rudd was leader, I predicted the election would be ALP 53 – L/NP 47. My reasoning at the time:

    I have always thought that the polls average 55-45 was an over-estimate of the ALP. I am going for a 53 (ALP) – 47 (L/NP) spread in 2010, which is what I predicted for the 2007 election.

    It is possible (probable?) that the 53 (ALP) – 47 (L/NP) spread is the new equilibrium point for median voter preference in AUS’s two-party preferred electoral pendulum. This follows from the systematic pro-ALP bias amongst Baby Boomers, NESBs and single-mothers.

    My interpretation of the polling data since 2006 is that underlying support for Rudd-ALP has remained pretty stable. Although the observed polling data jumps around a fair bit it tends, IMHO, to overstate the ALP’s vote.

    Obviously things changed a bit since late 2009. In 24 JUN, just after Gillard took over, I aired the possibility of a voter back-lash on the morrow of Gillard’s coup. I was also the first to predict the campaign would go “post-modern”:

    Remember these are the same geniuses that gave us the Latham Experiment. How did that work out for them? And the preference deal that gave Steve Fielding a Senate spot. And they have been managing things in NSW ever since Carr flew the coop. Not a pretty sight.

    So they are not infallible.

    Its quite possible that Gillard could put in an ordinary performance during the campaign. Or that the voters could get cynical about ALP leadership merry-go-rounds and opportunistic policy back-flips. Or that Abbott could amaze us all.

    That being the case then all bets are off.

    So the ALP is prepared to take big political risks (changing leaders just prior to the campaign). But not prepared to take big policy risks (going to the voters with a DD on ETS).

    Says it all about post-modern politics, really.

    Nevertheless, after a night to sleep on it, on 25 JUN 2010 I predicted the election would pan out as ALP 52 – L/NP 48, with the government suffering some slight punishment for excessive political opportunism, but still heading for a comfortable victory:

    I now think that Gillard will do at least as well, if not better, than Rudd would have done. So I posit at least a 52 ALP – 48 L/NP outcome. With a more respectable performance by the ALP in the marginal seats in resource-rich states, esp since RSPT dropped.

    That slump did eventuate, but apparently it was only a temporary reversal of fortunes for the ALP. In retrospect the ALP slump should be seen as a form of voter time-out/sin-bin to the ALP back-room factional wheeler-dealers.

    As the campaign progressed I became more alarmed about the ALP’s bizarre antics (the new Julia makeover, the clandestine Rudd meeting, the Latham serial pest). On 03 AUG 2010 I cataloged the ALP’s elementary errors:

    the ALP’s political strategy…has violated some basic psephological principles, and squandered the advantages of incumbency:


    – “don’t change horses in mid-stream”,
    – “governments lose elections, oppositions don’t win them”,
    – “governments should run on their record”,
    – “oppositions should be portrayed as risky”.

    I must give some credit to mumbles for correctly predicting the (temporary) voter back-lash against ALP’s cynical machinations.

    But I stuck to my guns about the eventual ALP victory. I suggested that the ALP needed to re-focus on Abbott in order to regain the initiative and claw back the lead:

    Still, the ALP’s remaining advantages, plus the disadvantages of Abbott, should be enough to get them over the line. But to exploit these factors the ALP MUST take the focus off Gillard and onto Abbott.

    Later that day, 03 AUG 2010, on Crikey, I suggested that the L/NP’s surge would run out of steam:

    I guess the big question is “does the L/NP have the Big Mo?”, as in “Mo-mentum” to carry it through to victory on polling day. My guess is “No” to the L/NP’s “Big Mo”, but I sure did not predict the L/NP closing the gap with such alacrity so early in the campaign.

    So, to sum up, I predict that the ALP’s comfortable lead will be consolidated over the final week, with the result likely to be ALP 52- L/NP 48, as predicted over the course of the year. For reasons outlined here, back on 23 JUN 2010, the day Rudd was overthrown.

    There is simply no precedent for a government as well-run and well-received as Rudd-ALP doing badly in its first run at re-election. Rudd-ALP tick all the boxes for re-election:


    – reasonably fresh incumbent;
    – economy humming smoothly, due to good govt fiscal & financial;
    – competent leadership triumvirate of Rudd-Gillard-Swan;
    – reasonably united party-room Caucus;
    – no ugly festering ministerial scandals.
    Meanwhile Abbott-L/NP look like a bad bet:
    – not very popular leader, prone to risky off-the cuff moves;
    – party room divisions over leadership;
    – unpopular policies on industrial relations and climate change.
    Moreover there is some evidence of a partisan realignment on the basis of profound demographic shifts in the electorate, namely the replacement of the Menzies-era gloomers with the Whitlam-era boomers in 55+ voting cohort. The aging hippie3s have have an allergy to voting L/NP, at least relative to the normal conservative tendency of older people.

    In short, the Rudd-Gillard swap probably slightly harmed the ALP, implying that all the ALP’s political machinations amounted “a tale, told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, Signifying nothing”.

  16. A wonkish point – a clear win(loss) for Labor will be win(loss) for the view that betting markets outperform polls and pundits. Both the latter groups have been predicting at best a narrow win for Labor, while the markets have had them as consistently short-priced favorites. The story is complicated by the fact that the individual seat betting markets are much less favorable to Labor, – obviously that’s a point against the efficient betting markets hypothesis.

  17. No doubt, dreamed up by a bookmaker.
    JQ, when I switched off tel in disgust about twenty minutesd ago, the Eags were consuming my Bulldog lot.
    God help me/us if this is not the nadir of a frowsy sort of day.. if the evening isn’t better I will be in a1995 mood, for sure. The headache can only worsen.

  19. @Jim Rose
    You do know how the senate works don’t you Jim? Abbot will have control (with the help of that compliant little twerp from the so-called “Family First”) until July 1 2011. He’ll have ten months to ram through anything he wants, and he will.

  20. Neil of Greenway:

    the people want vision and a plan not negativity

    And you voted for Tony Abbott? You’ve obviously yet to learn the concept of irony.

  24. World

    For most of my life all I can remember is Laurie Oakes and Michelle Grattan commenting on AUS federal elections. Is it just me or does everyone else’s heart sink when they see one of those two offer their boring platitudes up for public consumption. Nobel prizes to both of them for stating the bleeding obvious.

    JS

  25. Jack, Those two were old when the world was young. Hopefully it will be the last election for both of them.

  28. Are the Liberals being cleared-out of the ACT.

    The Greens in the Senate at on 29%, the liberals are on 28%.

    See: ACT Senate

    Canberra – Liberal free?

  30. Am not a psephologist, so am I reading right that Steve Hutchings might be gone for Lee Rhiannon?
    At Ant Greens.

  32. A good win for our sensibilites… wake up, smell the coffee, and think about what politics (not just electoral policts) is all about…

  33. Well how wrong was I for initially it looked OK before it all started to go downhill but alas I thought I not the only one who got it wrong we all got it wrong and now it’s up to the GG to decide as to who is best to govern Australia or not.

  34. Well it looks like I get my wish – a hung parliament. There is no denying the country took a step to the left yesterday.

    A pox on both major parties.

  35. So when Tony as Prime Minister morfs into Tony the Terrible, who then will feel safe?

    Pensioners, or Jamie Packer?

    Minimum wage workers, or Murdoch funded minions?

    Hair-shirted community services or gilded Corporate enterprises?

    Social justice seekers or profit seekers?

    My instinct is that this mad, bad, monk will divide society, lie and deceive the public, manipulate the media and wreak havoc even worse that Howard.

    Maybe the Senate will save us? Abbot aint no Liberal – he is a right-wing Christian.

    The very worst that a democracy can show.

  37. I was doing How To Vote for Labor in Bowman yesterday, where Liberal signs and volunteers outnumbered Labor four to one. The Libs had a LOT of money behind them. I agree with Maxine McKew that there was a sullen vibe from many voters. There was also the usual sprinkling of “I hate the Greens more than anyone”, and “I fish so I’m not voting for you.”
    In general, there was not a lot of sweetness and light 🙂 So maybe policies don’t matter anymore? They didn’t seem to yesterday.

  38. TerjeP :I’ve previously said “a pox on both their houses”. Success at last.

    Great Pox on the Tories, Smallpox on the greens, Chicken pox on the Trots, Cow Pox on the ALP Right.

  39. Chris G,

    Massive failure to understand the time.

    Both parties were well represented with views on health, education, broadband, employment, economic management, immigration, hate the other guy.

    End result? balanced opinion. Except for the Greens who grew in support.

    Neither major party had a solution for Global Warming. The Geens did, and they were the party that swelled with support.

    It is a very simple conclusion.

    With the endless flood of political spam that came through my mail box, not a single one asked me for my opinion on the issues with a check box questionaire.

    They just do not want to know…and they now pay the price. We all pay the price.

  40. “Except for the Greens who grew in support”.

    Does either major party get this? Only the Greens grew and they will keep growing if they keep pushing this right wing market drivel down our throats.

    The liberals dont deserve to run a government they despise. Labor lost its values the day they “watered down” workchoices and caved in on the mining super profits tax and ETS and showed they could be as ruthless as the liberals in knifing leaders.

    Move to the left both majors and keep moving until you reach sanity.

  41. Its fantastic that the Greens have the balance of power in the Senate….

    Yes!! Who cares about the rest of the scrabbling?

    Now is time for proportional representation as Bob Brown says. One person – one vote.

    Prof Q…. surely you cant be too gloomy now?

  42. Alice, the Greens did exceptionally well but given Parliament is made up of a House of Representatives and a Senate and the underlying principle of the Constitution is that the government of the people should be theoretically ‘chosen’ by the people there is an exception as in the case of a hung parliament that the GG will use his/her reserve powers and choose the Party who is best overall to make laws for the peace, order, and good government of the Commonwealth.

  43. @Michael of Summer Hill

    Moshie – the Greens did exceptionally well despite Murdoch and the media completely ignoring them. Explain that one to me?

    I would say people are voting Green because of the complete and utter garbage coming from both major parties.

    On one hand we have the policies of worker bashing, denialism and delusionism and fear of “reds” and hatred of “big government” in the Coalition.

    On the other side we have a labor govt that sees itself as so so “modern” faithfully pursuing a market/privatisation agenda with two state Labor Govts under them who have flogged everything publicly owned in sight and done nothing for ordinary people by way of transport or employment (and who are detested).

    Really Moshie – thats why the Green vote grew – despite the Machiavellian Australian Media attempting to ignore them completely.

    It wont stop growing now Moshie. Green shoots. Thats what we need for recovery.

  44. @Michael of Summer Hill

    Even if Abbott gets a minority govt and rams through all sorts of ugly brutal legislation – he will have a fight on his hands come July and hey? The green vote will just keep growing…
    Its Labor that needs to stop pretending to be “me too media hungry smarmy balmy liberals” Moshie, and get its act together at State and Federal level.

    It wasnt a popularity pageant. It was a policy pageant and neither of the majors had much “authentic” to offer.

  45. I WAS WRONG.

    The election vindicates Mike Steketee’s view (H/T Pr Q) that the ALP lost the election in NOV 2009 when they choked on climate change policy, failing to call a Double Dissolution election after the Senate double-rejection of CPRS pulled the trigger. Had the ALP had the political courage of their policy convictions they would be well into their second term with Rudd at the helm.

    More generally it vindicates the old saw that governments lose elections, rather than oppositions win them.

    Strong leadership on climate change was the key issue of the government’s first term. The ALP’s spineless caused disillusioned ALP voters to form into two blocs, swinging to the Far Left (voting GREENs) if climate change was their priority, or to the Moderate Right (voting L/NP) if strong leadership was their priority.

    The real winner of this election was Nick Minchin, whose Martyrdom Operation in early 2010 changed the face of AUS politics. I still didnt think that this was enough to win the election for the L/NP given Abbott’s unelectability. But voters are willing to overlook policy misgivings for a strong show of political leadership (which is why Brown and Abbott prospered).

    On 7 JUN 2010:

    The collapse of the Rudd-ALP ascendancy is a real puzzle to psephos who try to predict partisan alignments. I still have not given up my call that Rudd will win the election ALP 52 – L/NP 48. But its looking pretty shaky now.

    The only explanation that makes sense is that Minchin’s Martyrdom Operation, crashing the ETS into the twin towers of the ALP and L/NP moderates, has succeeded in polarising the nation and re-aligning the parties.

    Minchin achieved an astounding Bin-Laden like negative success: harming the moderates inside both major parties and helping the militants in the factions/minor parties. He has effectively de-railed the careers of the Parliament’s two most successful, and moderate, men in Parliament: Turnbull and Rudd. And he has elevated the careers of the two most militant men: Abbott and Brown.

    The parliament’s moderates, Turnbull and Rudd, are gone. The parliament’s militants, Abbott and Brown, are front and centre. Abbott is about to pick up the ruling spoils that Minchin’s divisions created.

    Minchin’s dark satanic majesty in the back-room wheeler-dealing department makes Richo and Arbib look like bumbling amateurs.

  46. For all the prescient projections illuminating us from Strocchiverse…he is like Murdoch…the Greens barely got a mention let alone a prediction..

    hmmm

  47. Tony abbot is a hero of all Australians. As Prime Minister he will provide a competent and stable government.

    @ Alice – I’m not sure what election you were watching but the country has taken a giant leap to the right.

  48. Strocchi – the moderates both parties have knifed is what Id see as collateral damage.

    Brown is the lesson Abbott needs.

  49. @Jack Strocchi

    Nick Minchin should also be afforded hero status in his role in stopping the greatest lie and scam in human history. Australia has clearly decided that an ETS or carbon tax is not the way for Australia to move forward.

  50. Labor could have tried selling a message other than “We Suck”.

    Claiming the BER and insulation programs for the ~97% successes that they actually were instead of turning their biggest selling point – GFC response – into a “Duh, we screwed up, sorry!”, and then focusing on BOATS garbage, bogan assembly, “New Julia”, ignoring the NBN until about the final week, and expecting a Corpo-Right media with a bloodlust against Labor to simply make Tony’s “unelectability” obvious to the public. My God, the ALP couldn’t have self-destructed better over the last 12 months if they were trying.

    The ABC has been unbelievable. The day before the election, after the morning where the liberals said they would cut 1.5 billion from education (to help poor students mainly), they ran a story saying “the most striking thing about education in this election is the lack of difference between the two parties” and of course not mentioning the cuts. One example of many – Howard sure knew what he was doing stacking that board – Albrechsten and Windschuttle ffs. If Julia scrapes back in they should be lined up and shot when their 5-year terms come up for renewal. But the ALP prefers giving their enemies plum jobs in Cyprus etc and will probably reappoint them.

    And Abbott – how funny it is thinking back to when his becoming leader was going to destroy the Libs. Any Indian sadhu will tell you how powerful a four-beat mantra can be. Debt, waste, taxes, boats. Keep it simple and don’t fill in any details, it’s not as if the evasive answers and walking out on press conferences and last-minute unnamed accounting firm dodgy costings will be mentioned by the media. More importantly; did Julia and Kevin make eye contact?

    This is the fruit of the ALP Right which has turned qld and nsw state governments into infectious sores and then thought it would be a smart move to that kill off their federal leader at the behest of the mining industry, after his popularity had tanked on account of following their advice, and put up a slogan droning puppet instead, who went out of her way to legitimize the narrative of Labor’s failure in order to justify her own ascent: “We Suck, but don’t risk Abbott!”

    Had the ALP won tonight then Sussex St would be congratulating themselves and solidifying their control. The balance of power in the lower house is being held by greens and agrarian socialists, a better outcome than an outright Sussex St win really – but they’ll probably argue that Abbott doing so well proves that Labor needs to be more Right – all the better for the Greens.

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