In place of the usual weekend reflections, here’s a forum to discuss the election. I’m feeling gloomy about the outcome, but I don’t claim any special insight and my gloom may just reflect the awfulness of the whole business.
- Comment
- Reblog
-
Subscribe
Subscribed
Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
John Quiggin 
This is starting to feel a little like The Stange Death of Labor Australia.
I do not know what drugs Penny Wong, Julia Gillard and Stephen Smith were on last night, but they were clearly very powerful drugs. You do not go from 83 seats to 72 (the most optimistic projection at this stage) and then congratulate on yourselves on how well you’ve done, what a great campaign you’ve run and how good a leader you have. There is a slim chance the Coalition could get a majority if everything falls their way in every remaining doubtful seat, but the Senate will be controlled by Labor and the Greens and most likely the balance of power in the House will be held by the country independents and the Greens.
We do not yet know who has won the two party preferred vote (which is really only a math construct of who would have won if all those inconvenient independents and minor parties were not in the election) but declaring the outcome a famous victory for either big party is merely drinking the KoolAid.
We do not really need to think very hard about the policy conditions the country independents will want around issues like the NBN, or the policy conditions the Green will want around climate change. It will be fun to watch such polarising leaders as Abbott and Gillard trying to form a minority government with its need for consensus and compromise.
Alice,the Greens deserve a pat on the back but in my opinion not all is lost Labor given the GG’s will take into account issues such Human Rights and Equal Opportunities before making her decision and I wouldn’t want to be in Abbott’s shoes.
Was baffled at Chris Warren suggesting smallpox for the greens and only cowpox or acne for the NSW right.
Perhaps he meant this the otherway round?
Labor wont get rid of the right, the right will get rid of what’s left of real labor, as they have been doing for some time. and as the Tories did with their more independent or rational few over the same time frame.
why did labor fail?
Because it could not overcome the contradictions between their obscured real program, that is neolib and the rational promises they made in 2007, which actually adressed reality.
Paul Walter, if it wasn’t for the NSW fascists within Labor then Federal Labor may have done better but to say the left is finished is wrong.
Alice @ #46 said:
Err, no, on 07 JUN 2010 I suggested that Minchin’s Martyrdom Operation made the militant Brown and Abbott the big winners. Thats a reasonable mention.
And I did make a prediction that the GREENs would not crack the critical 10% primary threshold. If it makes you feel any better I am happy to concede “I WAS Wrong” 04 JUN 2010 on that. As I mentioned at the time, if the GREENs and the L/NP do well we will have to “re-write the psepho text books”.
[sound of scribes furiously scribbling late into the night]
Sorry Mosh, the comment stands unamended.
Labor proposed a program, that reempowered Australia, while simultaneously acceding to the proposotion that neoliberalism was prior to community interest, as one (relative ) insider explained to me the other day.
@Tony Abbott for PM
the abc has the primary vote for the greens increasing by 3.7%, and the primary vote of the lib-nats increasing by less than half that, so i don’t know how you can possibly assert that “Australia has clearly decided that an ETS or carbon tax is not the way for Australia to move forward”.
It will be interesting to see how the green preferences split.
the opinion polls and TV projections assume 80:20 as in 2007.
A newspoll a few months ago which I read which asked about second preferences when the greens were 13% rather than there usual 9% of the total vote had their preference split as low as 68:32.
Imagine, the Tories returned to power on green preferences. menzies won by one seat in 1961 on communist party preferences to Jim Killian.
a drop to 75:25 is an extra swing to abbott of 1/2 of one percent. there are plenty of seats in play within that margin, as I recall from last night.
Paul Walter, the NSW Labor fascists are on the nose and unless they change their ways then they are doomed. I will give you an example the proposed Lend Lease development for Barangaroo (former Hungry Mile docklands in Sydney) in not in the best interest of the people and in my opinion will break the backbone of the fascists for it is absolute crap.
huge informal vote this time
Jack Strocchi:
The electorate has become much more polarized, aided by Rudd’s poor decision-making and poor advocacy. Fat lot of good the Greens balance-of-power is going to do for Green policy. Green policies require a positive vote but the only thing they’re capable of doing now is voting things down. Along with Rudd’s shortcomings, this election was decided when the Greens decided to vote with global warming denialists. If the extremists vote together, the moderates haven’t got a hope.
Paul Walter, you must also remmember that even if the NSW Liberals get into power they will be no better so now is the time to act and speak up in opposition to the proposed development of Barangaroo. Enough of high rise developments, give the land back to the people of NSW to enjoy what nature created and not some monstrosity.
@Michael of Summer Hill
Yeah Moshie…from my point of view…I am winning not losing (a pox on mindless right wingnuts in both majors) and we WILL losing some of the mindless garbage right wing stuff no matter what the outcome.
Now Bob Kattor – here is an indepenedant who interests me. From dairy farming country obviously who says “why would I have any loyalty to that lot? (liberals). After twelve years and their dairy de-regulation we went to having one farmer commit suicide a week.
Mr Kattor – Id like to ask him to dinner at my place right now.
After all the mindless de-regulation and globailsation by the liberals and the loss of jobs that went with it here, I agree with Mr Kattor.
I dont think Tony Windsor has been very impressed with jobs initiatives in country regions either under the prior coalition policies.
This is going to get very interesting indeed but either way – I couldnt give a fig about which major can cobble a government from this mess.
@Jack Strocchi
Well Jack – it would seem I found a a strocchiverse slip up!
“I WAS Wrong” 04 JUN 2010 on that. As I mentioned at the time, if the GREENs and the L/NP do well we will have to “re-write the psepho text books”.
Now how about a bit more on the Greens in future JS? They are the clear winners here and we certainly need a new textbook.
No Michael. The GG will do no such thing. There are three hundred years of convention as to what she will do and unless she wants to be remembered with the same odium as Sir John Kerr, she will follow them scrupulously. The opinion of sundry partisan hacks, statisticians with Two-Party Preferred vote or other dubious characters cut absolutely no ice. The GG acts solely on what her primeminister and her speaker tell her. Gillard remains primeminister until she resigns or loses a no-confidence motion, in which case she must resign or be sacked. Traditionally, she then advises the primeminister to call upon the leader of her Loyal Opposition to see if he can form a government, but until then, Abbott doesn’t get a look-in. The Westminster system gives the PM a lot of power. The ball is in her court. It’s up to her to persuade the independents to support her in forming government.
Alice, in a hung parliament the Governor General will take note of what the major party’s come up with but will only endorse the formula which in her opinion is in the best of the nation.
If only the federal government could sack non performing state governments. Keneally and Bligh will get washed out in a major mudslide but its a shame people have to wait so long.
Sorry Alice, I am having problems with my PC which is slowing down and going on the blink. The above should have read ‘ best interest’.
@Alice
Yes, you would like Katter.
As frustrated DLP voter yourself, you would support his Labor political views from the 1950s style outlook, including opposition to privatisation and economic deregulation and a dark conspiratorial suspicion of big business.
like every good lefty, Katter is all for rent-seeking by people he likes and all for treated people he does not like as a source of money for the in-group.
most of all, katter thinks he can tell a good monopoly from a bad monopoly, which is the foundation stone of progressive polictics.
Perhaps the psepho textbooks are not so far off the truth. They all say that governments lose elections, oppositions dont win them. And they tend to agree that a governments chances of re-election depend on:
The ALP had both these variables running in its favour coming into the election. How did it handle its two greatest assets? It squandered them both.
Incumbency It chucked incumbency status out by changing leaders two months prior to election. Blame the NSW Right.
Economy: It failed to sell its moderate but effective role in managing the GFC. Blame Wayne Swan.
And more generally, it failed to capitalise on its mandate to implement a climate change policy. Blame Kevin Rudd.
So really the ALP have no one to blame but themselves, or their leaders. They were a pretty weak bunch.
Moderate Lefties need to grow some balls if they want to win. Take a leaf out of Gough’s book.
Neither major cares to undo mindless de-regulation in this country and that they still dont give a damn about all those dairy farmers committing suicide here (and they dont care that Parmalat now owns our milk industry and send all the profits offshore and has forced those poor dairy farmers who still produce dairy down to starvation wages at their farm gate).
Now is that smart?
No its not. It hasnt even kept the milk price down for Mums and Dads. Its just opened a gate and let Parmalat shovel massive profits straight out of this country (just like the mining companies do and a whole host of others).
This isnt sustainable development. This is industry and country destruction, destruction of our tax base and destruction of employment and production and basic living standards for people in Australia in favour of only the largest already hugely profitable international companies.
What are we? Human sacrifices?
No Amused, the GG does have wide reserve powers to do as she pleases in the best of the people.
Hands up who wants to be a fly on the wall when Alice has Mr Kattor (correct spelling: “Katter”) to dinner?
A minister in the Joh Bjelke-Petersen government, a man who thinks the Mabo decision is disgraceful, who believes a person should own as many military semi-automatic long arms as one wishes, & correct gun storage is to lean them against the corner in any or all rooms of the house, a firm believer in property rights, an opponent of free trade (or blocker of imports of products that are grown in Australia). Amongst other things.
Could be some interesting reactions from our Dear Alice to some of Bob’s more firmly held philosophies.
@Jim Rose
Good JR. Someone needs to wake up in Australia (if it isnt going to be you – it will have to be me and Bob Kattor). The rest of you on the right (in both major parties) have gone stark raving mad.
@Steve at the Pub
As for Steve at the Pub – I think Id have more common ground with Bob Kattor than you (he can leave his weapons at the door) when it comes to mindless de-regulation. Personally I think pubs should have more regulation and less poker machines to go with it.
@Alice
did not read the below until after my last post:
“Despite almost two decades of deregulation, Katter – who admits he might be a member of the Australian Labor Party “if it was still the 1950s” – sees tariffs and subsidies as the burning issue in the bush.
One of his pet projects is to place not so much a tariff as 10 per cent duty on everything coming into the country.
“Fifteen per cent is probably more realistic,” he adds.”
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/maverick-mp-bob-katter-warns-major-parties-he-wants-action-if-he-holds-balance-of-power/story-fn5z3z83-1225901306928?from=public_rss#ixzz0xIZxSHIV
tariffs are implicit taxes on exports, so Katter’s views are more evidence of the power of expressive voting and rationally irrational voting.
we are about to live in interesting times. Katter is 65, so he may be willing to play hard, seeing this close election result as both his one chance and his last chance.
andrew wilkie will be even more unpredictable – ex-army, ex-young liberal and ex-green.
Yes, “the Bob and Alice show” would be mightily entertaining episode. Although, I fear, a one-hit wonder rather than a long-running series.
Amused, read Susan Downing Research Note 25 1997-98 on The Reserve Powers of the Governor-General and you will get a better understanding of what the GG can do.
A subsidiary point is the relevance of a state government performance to its party’s federal election chances. Its pretty clear that an average performance by the ALP candidates in QLD and NSW electorates would have generated a comfortable victory for the ALP in the FED arena.
But the ALP’s performance in these states was very much below average. Most commentators put this down to electoral cynicism about ALP careerism and corruption. (The Rudd sympathy vote was not a factor given that Rudd suffered a ginormous nine percent adverse swing.)
So the ALP party machine, contrary to its projection of invincibility, is an emperor that is very scantily clad.
And one should immediately discount self-serving spin by machine operators about the party losing the electorate in the second week with the “[fill in the blank?]” leaks. The ALP lost the election irretrievably when Rudd caved into the NSW machine and put-off the CPRS until 2013 ie never-never.
Jack Strochhi & Steve at the Pub, no harm in Alice trying to convert those on the political wright to come over and join those on the centre left.
JR
In the name of mindless de-regulation we have wiped out thousands of our jobs and eg razed hundreds of acres of orange groves around Wagga and we are now importing dry as old sticks inside large orange coloured manipulated gassed oranges from who knows where…
Id rather have my food grown here thanks and Id rather it give someone a job.
As a result we are left wailing “oh we cant upset BHP or RIO” (because we have so little else except for the spin ridden now damaged financial sector?) and politicians now routinely wear hard hats…not to show us they are actually building anything….but to protect them from coal lumps and iron ore rocks falling off mountains.
The de-regulation has indeed been mindlessly mindless. So has the privatisation agenda.
Jack Strocchi, no harm in Alice trying to convert those on the political wright to join the centre left progressives. I think you are jealous for not being invited.
@Steve at the Pub
the further to right and old left, new left and left over left support economic nationalism.
the positions of the green, hanson’s one nation, australian democrats and Katter on economic and immigration policy are similar. some of these just speak with a better spin than others.
the further to right and the old left, new left and left over left support economic nationalism because they thrive on policies that promote division, conflict between in-groups and out-groups, and rent-seeking. they win votes by telling you who to fear, who to blame and who to envy.
Wonderful result from the Australian Electorate at large – seems to me, we, have said, well we do not think much of either party and now we have said so and just to make sure a fifth of us voted Green not to warn you but to tell you that enough is enough, now work it out together or bugger off!!
@Alice
so you say that “The de-regulation has indeed been mindlessly mindless. So has the privatisation agenda.”
which of the following good old days regulatory regimes do you want to bring back?
• the two airline policy
• banks opening at10 and closing at 3
• no competition in telecommunications
• np interstate power market
• no pay TV
• no more free-to-air channels?
• no ABC 2?
Wilkie is fine. He has a moral compass and he is not a right wingnut and he is not a money grubber who just wants to be showered with moolah for his own seat.
@Jim Rose
Warning – this segment of JRs is a mindless repeat.
@Alice
I repeat the list because you have no answer to it. Saying that consumers would be better-off without JetStar, Tiger, and Pay TV would be too much for you to risk.
in common with the red-baiters of old, much easier to denounce degulation in general without giving any specifics of what you oppose and what you want to reregulate?
Name names!
Which deregulated industries do you want to have regulatory barriers to entry and price competition restored? in which deregulated industries should consumers be protected once again from the scourge of lower prices and greater choice?
@Jim Rose
We only have two airlines JR. We had two airlines before de-regulation only they were safer to fly in and they gave better meals.
You people have no discrimination. The right engaged in an orgy of deregulation here and overseas and all we got was the financial mess we now have, higher unemployment and more people including Bob Katters locals, who probably lived sustainably for two hundred years before liberal idiot deregulation policies decimated the country of jobs.
If pay TV is your answer (what would we do without pay TV) – then you are obviously a spoilt city kid.
@MH
Im with MH. The vote was a thumbs down to both majors which is entirely in keeping with their indistinguishable policies. Mindless campaigning. Mindless policies and mindlessly run.
Even the electorate cant decide what they want but there are a hell of a lot more green voters even though the media tried its libloyal best to ignore the Greens.
How about this? A Nats Green coalition? Either way both parties (lib and lab) will have to moderate argue and negotiate with others who arent quite so right wing.
Im happy. Green shoots. Compassion. Empathy. Social concern. A moral and ethical compass. Its about time. Open the garbage bin and throw “rational man” and his global “market that knows best” inside. Then slam the lid shut and take it to the tip for recycling.
On the contrary, Alice, its the Greens who are the “rationals”. There is no doubt that the Greens economics is rational.
Its the perversion of market theory, the ideology that serves for resource exploitation for fetishism, before human need, exchange before use, international hegemony and psychic homogeneity under an actually plutocratic system run by patriarchal greed driven morons and their collaborators, that desperately needs “consigning” (by the smell).
Paul the real farce is yet to come…the bearing of our tax funded gift wrapped largesse in the courtship of the independents…oops there goes the Epping Parramatta link (Damn…again!).
Now would someone cost Abbott’s courtship dowry so I can remind him to stay outta debt?
Yes, some of us are rational but not Gillard or Abbott.
The ABC website is currently giving the Coalition 73 seats (prediction).
With three other Coalition members (camouflaged as Independents), there is the 76 needed to push Gillard off her perch.
So Abbott is probably assigning portfolios now.
McKew, a darling of the Right, deserved her comeuppance. When will the ALP learn it needs to grow its relationship with people in society and not try to parachute media identities from football teams (Mal Malinga), Rock Groups (Garrett), or the media?
The ALP cares less about workers rights than it does about “the economy”, has destroyed the role of trade unions, so society is destroying the ALP.
The only reason the Rudd ALP was elected was through a huge Your-rights-at-work campaign. But the stupid Rudd misunderstood this as a election victory due to his presence.
The only way out for the ALP, is to totally reorient itself away from all the meaningless jargon in its current Platform, and latch firmly onto the real interests of average Australians – jobs, wages, health and security (environmental and financial).
The ALP cannot win the next election unless it gears up all trade unions to campaign actively for a Labor victory 2014.
Alice, we can’t afford the dowry, since Abbott will knock the mining rent tax on the head.
@paul walter
Oh well Paul…I suppose Abbott will now be busying himself writing up “unemployment choices”. He would love to make his savings there.
I need to invite Katter to dinner fast.
If I was Katter Id hold out for complete dairy re-regulation and for Parmalat to be shown the way to the back paddock.
Rather than use up bandwidth this link is a brief discussion of my day at the polling booth
Some other issues here:
1. The mandate theory — always of doubtful credibility given the structure of political contests here, is absolute bunkum in this contest. Essentially the coalition leveraged its way to parity by running campaigns against the Queensland and NSW ALP governments. The Liberals lied shamelessly to do this, as I said above, linking “Labor debt” to rising electiricy and water prices, which had nothing at all to do even with the state government. Stupidly, the ALP Federally helped them do this by running against them too, even in their porkbarrelling. They threw the member for Bennelong metaphorically under a train in their enthusiasm to do this.
2. The Coalition traded on ostensible ALP disunity, based on “leaks” of at best doubtful provenance — quite possibly the invention of journalists. Virtually the entire media plus the ABC ran against them in making the campaign a kind of Masterchef election in which all content was dumped out. There was little debate about any matter of substance, and the coalition simply lied about the cost of its proposals while chanting its mantra about debt and deficit. Virtually nothing was said on health at all, except largely about state matters. And of course, the mining thugs ran their own separate scare campaign which set the stage for the removal of Rudd. And then there was the boat people issue …
So really, coalition rule would have absolutely no legitimacy at all. And the four indies and one Green all favour NBN and 4/5 of them favour a price on carbon. Abbott could not implement such policies without spitting on the campaign he just waged. So if tyhe Indies are serious about policy and stable government, they will support the ALP.
Of course, I’d be just as happy for them not to, as I don’t see this ragtag bunch of rightwing loonies seeing out three years or even 18 months. Once the suppurating boil of the NSW ALP government is lanced in March next year and an Abbott government falls apart under its own contradictions, the ALP will be back. Costello says 12 months, and that could be right. Indeed, Bligh only has until 2012, so 2013 would be an even worse time for a coalition government to have a poll.
I voted Greens and so far the results seems about right. Both in the fact that more Greens are in, and also both Labor and Liberal needed a big boot sunk into the nether regions on AGW.
@Alice
You say “We only have two airlines JR.” You are not alone in this conclusion: Quiggin (1997) says in the Australian Economic Review that “The Australian airline industry is a natural duopoly and the market is not contestable.”
Do you agree that you can buy a airline ticket from:
1. Qantas?
2. Jetstar
3. Virgin blue?
3. Tiger?
That totals to 4 airlines, not your claim that “We only have two airlines JR”!! Three others failed because the competition was too hot, including Annett. The failure of Annett did not deter new entry.
You also say “We had two airlines before de-regulation only they were safer to fly in and they gave better meals”
How do you know that? Have accidents increase per passenger mile?
No safety regulation were changed was the result of deregulation in Australia, NZ or USA as examples. Regulatory barriers to entry were removed.
Why do you assume that the non-price competition will go into competition in safety?
What reward is there for airlines over other non-price competition options such as the very famous over-building of capacity and networks and giving people flash meals as a way of getting around price controls?
Part of the rents from regulation was shared with unions as high wages to build political support. Other parts of these regulatory rents were shared with sub-set of consumers such as excessive capacity and jet services to regional cities and smaller states also to build political support.
Why is air safety special as a form of non-price competition in regulatory cartels?
Air safety pays more as a form of non-price competition in regulatory cartels only if passengers respond to safety records and patronise airlines with superior records. (If so, this would contradict the case for regulation is airline brand name capital is not enough to deter bad practices as compared to well-informed, far-sighted regulatory agencies who are, of course, never captured by the industries they regulate).
Why would this preference for safety among passengers disappear upon deregulation?
Indeed, the ability of safety aware passengers to punish unsafe airlines is greater after deregulation because they have three other rather than one other airline to choose from and these alternative airlines can choose their aircraft.
p.s. I grew up in a country town with no public transport.
@Chris Warren
Actually, unless the government did what has been histroically unusual for first term governments — concede no swing, she was always going to struggle to hold on with just 1.5% in the bank.
Against her she had:
1. RAID (the “Maxine’s ghetto” people protestibng against public housing ruining their property values from Day 1 of the Rudd government and Alexander being their ally from the time he got the nod.
2. The state government whom people could not chuck out first
3. Rudd’s dumping and her closeness to him
In her favour, those loyal to Howard were not a factor; strong preference flows from an enlarged Greens primary (about 11-12%).
Not enough.
With a parliament of 150, and a speaker who has a casting vote only, the current numbers are so tight that a 75:75 stand-off is possible, with neither side keen to supply a speaker.
if the coalition gets 73 to 72, they have a better chance of getting 76 with windor perhaps as the speaker.
if the ALP gets to 73 to 72, they have the better chance because the country independents spend a lot of time talking of stable government.
It all depends on whether the greens preference split stays up at 80:20 as in 2007, or drops a little lower, which could be the end for the real Julia.
If the split drops below 80:20, the greens will be the new DLP of australian politics. A way-station for people to move from labour to liberal while still making that protest vote that makes them feeling good about themselves but still voting liberal.
as a longer term factor, socially conservative labour and liberal swinging voters will be put off voting for labour if labour must concede to the left-wing agenda of the greens.
Bob Brown’s speech last night barely mentioned the environment apart from a carbon tax, and was an economic and social agenda at odds with many swinging voters.
several more green MHRs may brand the ALP as too left-wing to win narrow elections because they would have to go into coalition with the greens to get a small majority on the floor of the house. the rise of the greens may ensure that it will be a long time before the ALP again holds office federally.