Startling news from the polls

In a piece that pretty much writes off Julia Gillard as PM, Laurie Oakes reports

ALP polling has produced a finding that has startled those around the prime minister.

It shows that, while only 30 per cent of voters plan to vote for the Gillard Government, 38 per cent describe themselves as Labor people.

The conclusion drawn from this is that the Government has to be seen as ‘more Labor’. It has to show more concern about, and become more identified with, things that are regarded as `Labor issues

Wow, how could anyone have predicted that?

29 thoughts on “Startling news from the polls

  1. Unfortunately, the political sideshow is becoming increasingly irrelevant. I doubt whoever we get, the current circus, toxic tony, or some new vaudeville act, the avoidance of the obvious and important, and increasingly the “too late to do anything much” will be the factors determining our fates over this decade. Nothing much has been done about derivatives post-GFC, and credit default swaps are currently an important but not sufficiently talked about factor in the European crisis, and it is all is getting rapidly worse on the climate change front with the increased global humidity making the 2011 torrential year simply a taste of worse to come.

    Are we entering an era of ‘government irrelevancy’? A just released PNAS paper would suggest that the (economic) impacts of climate change may have been grossly underestimated.

    http://m.pnas.org/content/early/2012/02/03/1120177109.abstract?etoc?etoc?etoc

    These political warm-up acts might be followed by a horror story main act.

    But, of course, nothing to worry about, as we know that climate change is just a greeny conspiracy by a coalition of greedy scientists after research funding, attention seeking wannabe celebrities, and red-green tree-huggers intent on a one world government!

  2. I don’t expect our mainstream media to be sympathetic to Labor under any leader – although I think they’d become even more harsh and relentless critics should Labor be stupid enough to imagine a leadership change could help them. Being more active and less reactive, able to stick to something, any at all, (beyond trying to keep their poll numbers up), would help.

    But ultimately they are going to continue to look like Liberal Light to me, at best pragmatic and practical managers for, one hopes, interests a bit broader than the real Liberal’s narrow corporate interests who are all take with just a little trickle for PR purposes. That rather than driven by deeper principles.

  3. FTR the forthcoming 2013 election is the most consequential contest for a generation, since Fightback 1993. The political story of partisan contests from the nineties through noughties has been slow and steady policy convergence, with plenty of political splicing and dicing of electoral demographics.

    But Minchin’s Martyrdom Operation changed all that, opening up a major partisan policy divergence on the fundamental issue of carbon costing and in effect deposing both Turnbull and Rudd. It also revealed a remarkable difference in political styles, the introverted policy-focused and outcomes-oriented Gillard versus the sound-byte oriented, oppoositional attack dog that is Abbott.

    It has also sets the stage for a truly memorable “half-time for Julia” comeback, if the ALP caucus can hold their nerve and if the disenchanted ALP voters can come to their senses. There is always a deal of ruin in the nation but you can’t complain about the political plot twists.

  4. There is no way that Rudd will be restored as PM. If he was impossible to work with last time then imagine how he would be if he was to return and feel absolutely impregnable. While the media like leadership instability and in fact helped destabilise Rudd for months before the night of the coup they are up against the fact that; there is no obvious successor; the independents will not support an alternative; and any change would lead to a quick election which at this point would not be in their favour. Not only that while Gillard has had trouble being accepted by the electorate she appears to be able to maintain loyalty where it counts – in caucus and has even had recent support from the Greens. She does face misogyny from the media pack and also from men who are conservative in their views but has managed to stand up to this attack.

    Her main weakness is in not seeming to have a moral compass to stand by – but in this she is no different to Tony Abbott who has trashed Liberal Party values fairly comprehensively as well as those values he has espoused in the past. Neither of them are to be trusted on policies where there are big, influential players likely to lose.

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