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John Quiggin 
Testing.
What happened to my earlier effort? Not even moder-hell, rather straight in to the ether?
Oh, put it a link and all vanishes. That the problem.
Next test without the HTTP…
Article in New York Times online.
“U.S. Companies Brace for an Exit From the Euro by Greece”
I won’t try to post a link given Freelander’s problems above.
This whole artificial “Euro” crisis?!! Why the bankruptcy of Greece should require it to leave!? Why anyone would make such an absurd connection!? Iceland needed an association with the Eurozone to get out of its own floating hell?! How is the Greek cure a radical shift to a position of total balance sheet destruction and Greece’s international trade evaporating?
The answer is that all this Euro crisis nonsense only serves the cause of the evil empire, the U. S. o. A., and then only in the imaginations of those American patriots who believe continuingvworld domination is possible for this late, once great, power. But this wholey caused created
crisis. The mess created will only help the relative rise of Asia, in particular the Chinese ascension. But the mayhem, all though theirs maybe one of the least damaged and therefore a gainer in relative terms in unlikely something China woulddesire. Mayhem brings many unneeded risks, and growth would likely be slower than otherwise.
The US dollar has now long been history as far as being a suitable global reserve. There long battle to destroy the brand of its logical replacement seems to have succeeded but that won’t save the dollar. What happened to DSK should be seen in the context of destroying the Euro brand. When as head of the IMF he started truth talk about the US dollar, I thought this is brave but needed to be said. When he got some justice American style I was no more surprised than when Assange came to grief. Of course, the universe inhabited by some who deem themselves quality thinkers is
Full of the most amazing coincidences, extremely convenient coincidences, which they manage to brush assure with there oh so clever and convoluted reasoning.
Wake up people. The US is not your friend. The US is not even in the least bit a friend of the average American.
The US is only a friend to those well healed flag of convenience
individuals like the Rupert formerly known as Australian.
Do not ask who is to be included in the drone’s latest toll; the stone’s toll includes you.
Damn auto correct drone not stone!
Politics of the EU-Aus ETS deal
If Tony Abbott wins the next election, will the recently announced EU-Aus carbon market deal
tie his hands and make it more difficult for him to kill an Aus carbon market?
Just wondering…
Here is a useful document on the Carbon Price
Click to access CPA%20Summary-of-australian-governments-climate-change-plan.pdf
@het
I think so. With some extra finagling the effective carbon price goes from $23 to ~$10 in the sense our big emitters can buy Euro offsets. PM Abbott would look mean spirited if he took that away while people felt it was making an effort.
I suggest the essential difference between our last two PMs is
Rudd ETS – cancelled
Gillard ETS – watered down.
The one good thing that might come out of this is that a customs union between Europe and Australia could impose a carbon tariff on goods made in China. Unlikely though.
The small mercy about what is bring done about climate change is that a framework is being put in place. When they do get serious that will save some tome. The Greens just continued their “Yes, we’re not really serious contenders for government” by insisting on the tax lead in. The tax as a lead in has no real point and was an example of the worst sort of power play – the exercise of power simply for the sake of it over a very important issue, where instead they ought to have gotten their act together, shown they were a potential alternative government,rather than a bunch of self involved latte sipping urban hippies
@Freelander
The tax lead-in does have a point – it creates a stable market price for carbon emissions at the introduction of the scheme, to reduce investment uncertainty and market instability. This was one of the lessons learnt from the early stages of the European scheme. Also, the tax lead-in was part of the Rudd scheme as well as the Gillard one, so the Greens aren’t to blame for it. Mind you, IMHO the Greens chose posturing over good policy when they opposed the Rudd scheme, which is substantially the same as the Gillard one they endorsed.
Hermit,
In the unlikely event that Abbott became Prime Minister he has absolutely no option but to repeal the Carbon “Tax”. He has campaigned claiming to be honest, and repeated at least 1000 times that I have heard that he would “get rid of that toxic tax”.
Seems to me that the watered-down carbon price mechanism leaves us with a situation where companies can try and “wait” it out, to see if the current government gets booted out. The point, which I would have thought was to encourage companies and individuals to redirect their dollars towards better approaches to their power consumption (ie moving to more efficient use, less use, and less CO2e intensive power sources), seems to have evaporated with the removal of a floor price. Damn shame.
Still, it does at least give a demonstration that the carbon “tax” isn’t going to bankrupt the nation, and certainly not in the new form. Whether it achieves its stated aim, that’s another question entirely.
PS: Spring sunshine sees our solar system powering on, on steroids. Can’t wait to see the summertime sun’s effect on it.
@Donald Oats
What makes you say that?
@Tim Macknay
No it doesn’t. It’s a tax not a market. No market, so talk of ‘stable market’ is a selection error. Without a market punters wait until the tax lead in expires to gain experience in the new environment.
There are arguments for a tax lead in, none of them good.
Those Green hippies need to shape up. Good intention are not nearly enough no matter how vigorously one fights for land rights for gender-confused whales!
Gillard will pay for the Gonski education reforms by increasing the GST to 15%. That way she can say that since the states get all the GST income, they are equally, maybe more responsible for the increase and we know they currently foot 70% of the bill.
There might even be enough left over to boost the new dental scheme and/or the disability support scheme.
If she can tie in the now majority liberal states, she can soften the impact of announcing this tax increase prior to the next election, so that the broken promises doesn’t arise.
At the beginning of July, I had an evacuated tube solar hot water system installed (with electric element back-up). I also had a 5.5 Kilowatt (nominal) Solar PV system installed. Naturally, I did this in part to get the solar feed-in tariff subsidy before Campbell Newman pulled the subsidy pin.
I agree with Donald Oats. My system has been “on steroids” since installation day. What has been astonishing to me is the effectiveness of solar generation in winter in Brisbane. A fully sunny winter’s day will see the system peak at 4,500 to over 5,000 watts and sit on a plateau of 3,500 to 4,500 or more from something like 8:30 to 3:30. In about 2 months, I estimate the PV system has made about 1,800 to 2,000 Kilowatts. (I lost a reading when my meter was changed over.) The solar hot water system’s energy harvesting for hot water is in addition to this.
I see the dollar investment upfront as a useful hedge against energy price inflation. With subsidies it should pay itself off in 4 or 5 years at worst and save/make money for another 20 years or more. Whilst the subsidy is arguably too generous and needed to be wound back, the new rules seem unfair to new starters. Newman cut the subsidy from 44c/kWh to 8c/kWh. I am not sure what energy providers pay for solar PV fed into the grid but I think it is another 8c/kWh.
I believe the government should pay a subsidy to new entrants sufficient to ensure solar power fed into the grid by consumers is paid at the same rate as it costs to use the power.
Perhaps more importantly it should look at ensuring the state’s next major power station is concentrated solar thermal with molten salt heat storage.
I’d like to see the Greens make a fist of it. To be taken seriously, they really need to show that they can do they hard work, and deliver on the basics. The two current political options are doing a poor job, but the public is aware that worse is possible. The Greens need to show they are not worse simply because regardless of their treasure trove of high minded ‘heroic’ humanity saving policies, many consider them to inept to handle the basic administrive tasks of executive government. To have a hope of gaining office they ought to follow the lessons from another era, that is “Make the trains run on time and their hearts and minds will follow!”
@Ikonoclast
Good move with the self-supply. The sun is still providing a lot of usable energy in lower lattitudes and in winter. If the system hadn’t been privatized to such a degree, and so many vested interests for the new highly flawed regime created, transition to a new more green and consumer centered regime would be not only possible, but happening or happened.
Of course, a prime milestone (millstone) on the road to our currently enjoyed electricity utility Nirvana was an early particularly gung-ho, but typical fact, relevant reference and coherent argument free report in the early nineties from the Industry Commission, aka IAC, Productivity Commission, thatfully Federally funded ‘think’ tank.
Oops, missed: libertarian ‘think’ tank.
@BilB
Abbott has two bridges to cross before he can get rid of the Carbon Tax.
1. Win government
2. Control Senate (or go for double dissolution).
A double dissolution usually fills the last vacancies from the States with progressive minor parties or candidates – (think Nuclear Disarmament Party – from NSW).
Once Abbott wins government it may be all over: “Ambition Accomplished”. Seems the way of the modern professional politician. Seemed there was no further ambition in John Howard than to be Prime Minister. No grand vision in evidence. Sure the office did provide scope to pursue petty prejudices, and (I speculate., ahem) Abbott has plenty of those. But keeping his promises? Not unless he feels he has to or actually wants to. In the lodge, Tony will feel the promises have evidently served their purpose, and for s second, third,fourth term he will just have to dig deep to supply further new promises. Easy to create new promises (new. hoped)
(new hopes) than waste energy trying to fulfill earlier ones.
@Ikonoclast
Ideally the feed-in tariff should adjust with supply and demand. If necessary smart meters could curtail PV output that threatens to swamp the grid on sunny days. Google a case of sunburn in Germany. It’s illogical to get the same FiT when it is 20C with blue skies as when there is heavy rain or it is 40C near sunset with max aircons running. I’m surprised you can get a payback period of under 10 years with an 8c FiT. If you export an average 10 kwh a day that’s just 80c about the same as the daily grid connection fee.
You raise an issue I’d call ‘micro-nationalism’. If there was a near-death panic attack over carbon the various States can go back to their native resources other than coal. For Tas that might be hydro for SA that might be uranium. However for Qld that might have to be sunshine. This sounds weird but I wonder if Queenslanders secretly feel carbon tax demonises them for their high coal use.
Australia’s brutally tough carbon policies Part 2
Under ‘contracts for closure’ several small coal burners put their hands up though they were on their last legs anyway. However two big stations Yallourn 1.5 GW and Hazelwood 1.6 GW wanted more than the Feds are offering so I guess they’re staying
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/coalfired-power-stations-plans-abandoned-20120905-25dcq.html
Funny I don’t remember any of the asbestos companies getting a cent. Closure of these stations if I recall was slated for 2032 and 2031 respectively and would have made a genuinely serious dent in Australia’s emissions. Never mind we’ll have cheap international offsets.
@Freelander
Mm hmm.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/asia-not-all-its-cracked-up-to-be-in-education-20120904-25cji.html
I have months ago argued for this problem in Asian education system, and it would be a mistake to follow the Asian approach of education “reform”.
I’m sure that those who gives advice to the government knows this problem as well, however, the Asian approach is the only possible method for Australia to follow in the current political climate. Politicians of the major parties are so obsessed with budget surplus, in the same time they want to avoid raising taxes, and hoping to avoid addressing the problems with private education so they won’t be accused of “socialism”.
The Asian approach is simply not sustainable, over time, it would increase school hours, increase the stress of students and increase the spending on education (assuming you haven’t privatised all schools). China, now have 12 hour school days (excluding 2+ hours daily homework), 6 days a week and 1 day of tutoring for high school students (year 10, 11, 12). Not only so, a lot of students who “follow the above rules” fails to pass the mark required for them to get an entry to university. Not only so, Chinese students have major problems to regarding to physical abilities, an increase in students having “office associated disease”, and in my opinion, the mental development of students (especially top achievers) are not exactly good in anyways.
If we are to adopt the Asian approach. This will create unfairness and highly unsustainble future education system. Suppose we are to beat China in PISA, this will further increase their study hour; if that made them beat us in the next round, we will increase our study hour (loop continue forever). It’s the same as saying that the Olympic world records can be broken unlimited amount of times.
The focus on “teacher’s” in the school learning equation seems a little excessive, as though nothing else is of any importance in getting results. Also, what you want out of education, and what you can measure, and the acurracy of measurements is another dimension insufficiently discussed.
But who cares? Certainly not politicians. As far as they are concerned, just more of what they have little concern about except to the extent that it provides further useful material for that circus we call politics.
Or maybe I’m being cynical, a problem as age, decrepitness, and mental deterioration advance?
As long as the outputs vomitted from our school system can mouth those essential words “Would you like fries with your order?”
@Hermit
Nobody is keener than I am to see coal plants decommissioned but not at whatever cost the operators deem acceptable. We have argued the toss here on which abatement measures pass muster — partly in term of cost per tCO2e abated and so at some point there’s a limit. In the case of these especially filthy plants they really have no future and paying them to do what they will almost certainly have to do without a handout doesn’t seem like good policy to me. In this respect, I disagree with my party.
Imagine if the government announced a progressive phaseout of the tax deductibility of dirty power. Starting July 2014, anything with emissions per MWhe within 10% or above 0.9tCO2e is only 86% tax deductible. Those 10%+ better remain 100% deductible. The cap is progressively lowered every year until a benchmark of 0.15tCO2eMWhe is achieved. The deductibility of “dirty” power also falls evenly every year until it reaches zero.
Those assets would be pushed over the edge. They’d dump them as quickly as possible at a loss to themselves. Their refusal to negotiate seriously would make them look stupid.
In some cases, the investors are super funds of course but in cases where investments made before the new regs were introduced had subsequently lost value, those funds could recover their marginal losses directly from the fund pool created by the abolition of deductibility — thus protecting the unit holders. If a substantial number of these were non-citizens, then the compensation funds could be directed into the accounts of citizens.
I’m against the idea of parting with substantial public funds to protect stranded coal assets though.
I’d be using the funds freed up by these changes to support low/lowmiddle income households with suitable services.
also Iconoclast,there is the fact that the energy produced does not arrive via burnt fossil generation.
every watt used by you is paying off your system.
the future faced by the fossil power generation industry in the light of losing more and more customers is looking grim,the money looks to be in grid control rather than generation.
Wtf is Labor up to with Roxon’s Internet surveillance lunacy? And the Afghani turkey-shoot. And Cubby Creek. And mega trawlers?
Why are the Greens awol on environmental issues? Have they become a one-issue party or is the truncated media clamping down on them if they do raise issues apart from one particular one?
@paul walter
“…or is the truncated media clamping down on them…”
DING! Correct.
The media simply refuse to report (or deliberately misrepresent) the Green’s position on all of the above.
http://greens.org.au/press
@paul walter
Oh no! Tell me it isn’t so! I thought this “great firewall of Australia” which would ‘accidentally’ protect us poor sinners from so much more would have already died a quite death, and the that the never ending quest for thought criminals, and the uncovering of their thought crimes had ended. Shock me. Ms Roxon isn’t by an chance one of those demonstrably dangerous god-believer-inner. Should the franchise be extended tothese types? Maybe? But they should be banned from entering Parliament
That said, wholeheartedly support her sentiments concerning tobbacco.
I’m having difficulty with the credibility of the Gillard government with respect to emissions. Despite the fact it seems the big brown coal fired stations will be with us for another 20 years the PM insists we will easily make our target. That target is a 5% reduction below year 2000 emissions of 558 Mt meaning that the 2020 target is 530. However this is where bulldust comes in because we assume 20 years of 1+% erstwhile emissions growth to a virtual 690 Mt in 2020. Creative accounting at its best. The virtual reduction of 160 Mt is equivalent to taking 45m cars of the road the PM tells us. Let’s give ourselves a pat on the back.
This is more than a porky but blatantly dishonest and amateurish. The absolute emissions cut is a weak 28 Mt with 20 long years 2000-2020 to accomplish it. If we don’t make it on our own we can buy a few cheap offsets from some spivs on the international market. Somehow all that CO2 from the brown coal stations gets virtually erased even as we see them puffing away. Could Abbott be any more dishonest?
Surprised to not see a comment regarding Rinehart’s Ayn Randian tirades. She is moral and good, therefore she is wealthy. Poor people need to stop drinking, smoking and gambling (immoral vices and bad), and they too will become wealthy. Simple! Of course, if poor people start out with $70 million and screw their family out of shares, all the better for them. Her remarks were compounded by a recent rant where she implied that people in Australia should think themselves lucky because they’re being paid more than $2 per day.
People don’t have a problem with wealthy people – people have issues with plutocrats who fail to see that they were actually born on third base and think they hit a triple.
wow! heavy news from canada:-
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/elections/pq-quebec-election-victory-ends-in-tragedy-after-celebration-interrupted-by-gunshots/article4518887/
a.v.
@Hermit
I immediately wondered if the ‘break down’ in talks was simply a device to free up some.previously committed cash to repair the budget, if necessary? Though to be honest I can no longer be motivated to track and analyse the minutiae of their latest antics. If they were other than the latest in a series of expedient antics, maybe a further look might be warrented.
Our current choices under score those most important human rights, the right not to vote, and the right not yo register to vote. Those rights allow the message to be sent “Functioning Democracy? You’ve got to be kidding?”
The bogglie-eyed baron, sorry viscount, moncton is busy doing a star turn at wnd.
http://www.wnd.com/2012/09/we-freedom-lovers-are-not-winning-but-we-will/
@Pepsimax
If every worker, blue collar and white collar, were paid $2 a day in a modern western economy, the following would soon ensue.
1. Spending would collapse.
2. Economy would grind to a halt.
3. Workers and children would begin starve.
4. Starving populace would rebel.
5. Starving policemen and soldiers (also workers on $2 a day) would support the rebellion.
LOL, I don’t Gina Flintheart has thought this one through. Her “Africans work for $2 a day” comment is particularly insensitive coming at a time when striking African miners have been shot.
On a more practical note, we need to remember that if a mining project falls through, for the time being, it is not a problem. Those minerals in the ground aren’t going anywhere. Meanwhile, the scarcity value of all minerals increases as the world’s reserves get mined out. The longer the metal minerals sit in the ground, the more they will be worth when eventually mined. We don’t have to be in an inordinate hurry to mine it all now.
Malcolm Turnbulls article SMH shows possibility that there is intelligent life in LNP coalition.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/honesty-is-the-best-policy-turnbull-swipes-at-abbott-and-deficit-of-trust-20120905-25ezm.html
This is the Turnbull speech that generated the media response http://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/speeches/republican-virtues-truth-leadership-and-responsibility/
@Ikonoclast
The assumption that spending would collapse is based on an assumption that so-called elites would be unable to take up the slack. Thousands of years of human experience and the legacy left of landscapes littered with monuments suggests otherwise.
If Gina does have her way maybe a mountain will be carved into “The really really big Gina”?
Maybe Rhinoheart should have said, “Africans work for$2 a day and require no further compensation upon severence” (severence with extreme prejudice?)
The nature of the spending should at least change. If you were selling a discretionary product like a smart phone where, say, you estimate that 200 million people could comfortably afford one, compared to a market where only 10 million can; then you’re likely to experience a significant adjustment in sales. If you were selling a high end luxury item such as, say, a Ferrari; then you’d probably do well in a more inequitable economy.