Stafford by-election

Another big loss for the Newman LNP government here in Queensland, with a swing of nearly 19 per cent in the Stafford by-election. I did my little bit for this, speaking at a public forum on asset sales. However, since only the Labor and Green candidates showed up, and no-one in the crowd seemed inclined to vote for the LNP or Family First anyway, I doubt that my contribution to margin was noticeable.

Like Newman’s previous drubbing, this by-election was caused by the resignation of the sitting LNP member. However, whereas in the previous case, the resignation resulted from personal financial scandals, the member for Stafford was a doctor who resigned as a result of disagreement with Newman’s health policy. So, the outcome may fairly be interpreted as a rejection of the government’s approach, both in terms of policy substance and authoritarian style.

There is so much disillusionment with politics at present that just about anything can happen. My own guess is that the state election, due in March next year, will see Newman lose his own seat of Ashgrove (held on a margin of 5.7 per cent) and that no party will secure a majority. After that, who knows? Informed or uninformed speculation welcome.

32 thoughts on “Stafford by-election

  1. is the electorate still favors labor if I’m not mistake (40 seats in Brisbane 49 outside)

    historically this is the high water mark for a challenger (24-30 months after the last election) and the libs didn’t have the benefit of the sophomore effect which is worth about 1.5 points

    So if the total swing was 18.5 points 9 months out from an election against a non incumbent I would expect a total swing of 11-12 plus or minus 3 for whoever wins the campaign. I would expect the couriermail to help newmann a lot in the campaign

    Rough gut feeling is that labour have a 1 in 3 chance of winning

  2. @James Wimberley

    ‘People abhor liars, narcissists and megalomaniacs’ (just like ‘Australians abhor liars, narcissists and megalomaniacs’) is a broad generalisation about tendencies. It doesn’t mean ‘all people [or ‘all Australians’] abhor all liars, narcissists and megalomaniacs all the time, and this abhorrence always overrides all other considerations’.

    If you seriously want to suggest that there is, as a general rule, substantially less abhorrence of liars, narcissists and megalomaniacs in the UK (or in England, or in London) than in Australia, you are going to need more than a couple of examples to make your case. Are you prepared to affirm that liars, narcissists and megalomaniacs never get elected to important political positions in Australia?

  3. @Graham.

    Can you please explain to us exactly how you got from 18.5 or 18.66 %, down to 11-12 ?

    Is this based on mathematical / statistical / political theory or practice ?

    Or have your guts come into play ? 🙂

  4. @totaram

    I would not be in the least surprised to discover a wide individual variation in people’s attitudes to liars, narcissists, and megalomaniacs, but I would be surprised to discover a systematic variation between the attitudes typical of Australians and the attitudes typical of people of other countries.

  5. @John Chapman
    mostly guts

    its a little optimistic given this (or pessimistic depending on your political stripe)
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/07/19/stafford-by-election-live/

    also check out the graphs on the right hand side. A couple of observations

    1. challengers usually get about a 4-5 point poll bounce 12 months out from the next election (roughly). Labour is probably at their high water mark here

    2. The lowest point before the last 12 months of government is a very good indicator of the final result for the government

    I think newman will loose his seat but i doubt labour will win from here

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