33 thoughts on “Sandpit

  1. Hermit, solar is being installed in Australia for $2 a watt right now before any subsidy. So the $2 a watt is a maximum price. Since with a $2 a watt installation and a 30 cents a kilowatt-hour price for grid electricity many Australians who own roofs will be able to produce electricity from rooftop solar at under a third the cost of grid electricity, even with no feed in tariff, they will have an incentive to install rooftop solar even if they use less than half the electricity it produces and export the rest to the grid. Even people with a 10% discount rate could still save money in a good location with a 50% self consumption rate. Now there are no doubt plenty of people in Australia who have a higher than 10% discount rate, but that doesn’t matter because there are plenty who don’t. So given that solar costs $2 a watt to install, that grid electricity costs households and many businesses about 30 cents a kilowatt-hour, and given the fact that there is plenty of roofspace, do you agree that Australia seems certain to get at least 25% of its electricity from rooftop solar if those factors remain constant?

  2. RB your calculations seem to show that it makes sense for roof owners without PV to get it installed. I’m saying that people don’t do these calculations but wait for bobbydazzler incentives like rebates, feed-in tariffs, discounts whatever. Unless something new comes up it could well be that most people who will ever get PV in Australia already have it, perhaps some 3.5-4 GW in total. Australia’s average electricity consumption is about 28 GW (full time) based on BREE data.

    A possible game changer is the type of scheme where the roof owner pays nothing up front and gets power bill reductions. The installer which could be a utility that also owns big power stations effectively rents the roof space. An argument has been made that it is better for grid operators to control home batteries which eventually may cost (opex not capex) as low as 8c per kwh. See several recent articles in http://theenergycollective.com/
    Therefore 25% PV penetration may be possible then again it may never happen.

  3. @Hermit
    Hermit, it is possible that the last person who wants solar installed on their roof in Australia applied for it today. However, that doesn’t seem very likely to me. It’s hard to see why people would stop installing solar and leave all that meat on the table. It just doesn’t make sense. It’s like predicting Australians will stop buying new cars and start cycling and using public transport instead. Technically possible, but not believable.

  4. Andrew Bolt has accomplished the extremely challenging feat of writing the most ridiculous thing I have ever read on the Israel-Palestine conflict:

    I’d suggest also this: which nation most clearly shows white in conflict with brown, Western civilisation in conflict with the Oriental; capitalism in conflict with the tribal; reason in conflict with the “romantic”, the strong in conflict with the weak? In every fault line, Israel is on the opposite side to a certain kind of tribal Leftist. Israel is once again the canary in the coal mine of civilisation.

    More at Loon Pond.

  5. The second par of my comment @31 was a quote from Bolt that I should have formatted accordingly. Sorry!

  6. Meanwhile, Andrew Bolt’s good friend the Prime Minister was on the news tonight saying that he is “putting forward the long, strong arm of Australia” to protect people in Iraq from “the devilish hordes of the Islamic State”.

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