Queensland election

In the opening days of the Queensland election campaign, I thought the most likely outcomes were either a narrow LNP victory or a minority government of some kind*. But the campaign has been a disaster for the LNP and for Campbell Newman in particular. He is now in the ludicrous position of refusing to answer any questions, except to repeat scripted lines about jobs. And he is suing and being sued by all sorts of people, mostly from groups traditionally associated with the political right.

The big issue has been asset sales, and again the LNP strategy has been bizarre. Having cut services in breach of all their promises, they are now promising to restore them (notionally funded by the proceeds of asset sales) but only in electorates where the LNP wins. Labor has avoided matching these promises, and has offered a package that’s fiscally sustainable in the medium term, even if it doesn’t really address the fundamental problem of inadequate revenue. With public opinion solidly against asset sales, that should be enough to neutralise the LNPs perceived superiority in economic policy.

Newman’s main calculation, I suppose, is that holding an election in January ensures no one will pay any attention (though he had the hide to say that this is the most important election in Queensland’s history), and that may be right. Still, I now think that an outright LNP win is unlikely and that there is little chance of a minority LNP government being formed. There’s even less likelihood of Campbell Newman being re-elected in his own seat.

Labor leader Annastacia Palaszczuk has also (very foolishly, IMO) ruled out a minority government, but I doubt that she would be willing to follow through with another election if she had the option of forming one.

* I’m avoiding the silly phrase “hung Parliament”. By analogy with a “hung jury”, this implies a Parliament that is unable to produce a workable government. In reality, the existence of a disciplined majority, effectively at the command of a quasi-presidential leader, has generally produced bad government, particularly in a unicameral system like that in Queensland. By contrast, minority governments have often run their full term, and been more transparent and open than their majority counterparts.

38 thoughts on “Queensland election

  1. Apparently the Bjelke-Petersen legacy is not finished yet, same script, different actors, how very, very depressing, perhaps it’s caused by the tropical climate.

  2. Advice please: I want my vote to do the most it can to keep LNP out. Do I number all the squares, with them last, or number all but them? Thanks in advance.

  3. JQ got in a good left hook for the team highlighting the $ 2 billion loss of revenue from the asset leases (no one has pointed out yet that you get less revenue from a lease than from an outright sale) leaving Nichols floundering for a suitable retort,……. 28 million left of the ALP budget estimate, ….he claims.

    Barnaby Joyce now admitting that”‘we’ are not infallible,.. we do make mistakes some times”, Duh.

    Then the other doubtful comment of the day with the closing comment “thank you Barnaby Joyce, good to talk with you…..”

  4. @Debbieanne

    You only have one vote. So leaving LNP out altogether guarantees they do not get a vote from you (although I tried to work out how they could “accidently” get a vote from a ballot that put them last – and I can’t see how that would happen because by the time you get to last preferences it would seem logical that there must either be a 50/50 dead heat between the last 2 contenders or there would already be a clear ‘winner’).

    As I suggested in a previous Qld election thread, the “Number every box and put the LNP last” is just a sneaky way of saying “Vote ALP”, without actually saying it – because it would be off-putting to so many people. Both duopoly parties are terrified of a minority/hung parliament.

  5. As an outsider to the Qld electoral process and culture in general, but a long term witness and participant, once, of an AUS march that crossed the Tweed border from NSW to Qld, in defiance of Joh’s anti-democratic public assembly laws, I’d like to comment that I m genuinely distressed about the absence of comment or reportage on the burning issues. Climate change. Where is it?

    Seriously, if you aren’t talking climate change then you are talking ‘bau’ or, as has been previously noted, ‘if you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem’.

  6. @jungney

    PUP has pledged to get 1 million houses solar – but we can’t talk about them because Palmer made his billions out of coal and therefore our heads would explode.

    And don’t forget the Greens. They want daylight savings! An idea that has probably been done to its pointless death up here.

    And just to insult us all further, Adam Bandt brought a curtain from his home in Melbourne to show us backward banjo-playing, six-fingered pointy-heads that it wasn’t faded!

    Oh, and the reef or something. But mostly a silent message: “Preference the ALP”.

    The Qld Greens are a sad sub-branch of the ALP.

  7. @jungney
    Climate Change? Bwwaaaahahahahaha! Didn’t they remove the sea-level rise risk amelioration provisions from council hands, ensuring idiots can build really really close to the current shore, really really close to current sea level? Or something like that.

  8. @Megan

    You can’t trust a capitalist. So forget about PUP. It’s run by a billionaire capitalist. He was a Joh supporter in the bad old days. Have you forgotten that?

    As for the Bandt thing, can’t we laugh at ourselves? I laugh at Melburnians all the time. I mean them and their silly, precious AFL for instance. When it comes to other sports, a billion Chinese don’t care. When it comes to AFL, 7 billion inhabitants of planet earth don’t care.

  9. @Debbieanne

    Both those strategies are (depending on how somebody wants to look at it) equally effective, or equally ineffective: that is, both will have exactly the same effect on how your vote is counted at each stage. If there are, say, five candidates in your seat and you put one each of the numbers from 1 to 4 in the four boxes of the candidates who are not the LNP candidate, then it makes no difference to the electoral result whether you put a 5 in the box of the LNP candidate or leave it blank.

  10. I don’t think that anyone has raised the point that if you lease assets you get a lower return than if you sell them, and as has been well covered if the lease is for 99 years then that is for all intents and purposes a sale other than for the price. This is the other stupid part of Newman’s plan. He was prepared to take a much lower price just so that the word “sale” could not be used.

  11. @Uncle Milton
    Uncle Milton,

    Centrebet has Alp winning Ashmore. So has Sportsbet and Sporting bet.

    The betting markets still show the liberals winning, but;

    Who will take over as premier if the Liberals win and Newman loses his seat?

  12. Here is an article that talks to motive, particularly Newman’s motives.

    http://www.theguardian.com/public-leaders-network/2015/jan/23/nervous-super-rich-planning-escapes-davos-2015?CMP=share_btn_fb

    The leaders closing debate had some absolute gems.

    Newman accused Annastacia Palaszczuk of colluding with bikies, “Oh RUBBISH” she exasperates, “its in todays PAPER” Newman exclaimes energetically, to which the audience explodes with a gale of laughter. Palaszczuk just raised he arms to the “need I say more” position. Newman was snookered,….delightfully.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s