Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. If you would like to receive my (hopefully) regular email news, please sign up using the following link
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John Quiggin 
As Ikon said and thank you; “It’s a pity the Pell argument has derailed the issue raised earlier by Magic Magee. I’d like to see a bit more discussion on that suggestion.”
And all these important topics;
KT2:”Please make knowledge public and rail against private hidden research. JQ said “when knowledge was spread around-so was prosperity”.
Free access to research.”. And this is how you are able to do what you are doing : “ATP synthase ( And potentially dangerous in nefarious hands)”
Magic Magee: “at these historic low rates of 1.5%, I believe that it would be worthwhile to consider other options for inflation targeting and economic stimulation.”.
Gregory any answer please: “Didn’t QE end up via bond holders back in corporate pockets?:
Svante – with appropriate digression to economic underpinning of the historic conviction; Cut all Australian commonwealth government handouts to religions, and fully tax the lot of them. End all government relations with foreign religious power, inclusive of ER.” And later “but religions cost all current Australian taxpayers somewhere between $40billion and $60billion per year in taxes foregone, ”
Me: a sunami of ptsd: ““one the Internet’s most dystopian jobs” and ” an advert outside my woolies – seriously – for novated leases. Financialisation”.
Gregory J. McKenzie “The global economy is on a tipping point. With Russia desperate for foreign currency we may see a collapse in the world oil benchmarks.”
Me again. THIS: ““ATO whistleblower faces six life sentences, roughly the same as Ivan Milat”. They will come for you next. Must. Generate. Content. Not. Consume!
Svante: “Senator Marise Payne now focused on securing of “No Extradition Guarantee” to allow Julian Assange to address Breach of Bail matter.”
Luke E & kt2, at least trying to foster dialogue and actions not exegesis; “Any better suggestions welcome. My simple one perception re stigma of reporting – culture. Fund police more and provide them with trained trauma violence health workers with police directly at time of first call out.” And luke elford “A more plausible explanation is that we are headed down the US route, where political affiliation has little effect ”
“Poselequestion “The fallout from privatisation of government assets can have far reaching deleterious especially when they are interrelated.”
If there was as sandpit we would all be blind. Our host may have some ointment?
Hi grandkids – sorry…
“climate scientists at the California Institute of Technology this week produced a new glimpse of a possible long-term future for the planet if emissions stay as they are.
Their study, based on two years of complex supercomputer calculations and published in Nature Geoscience, shows that if the accumulation of carbon in the atmosphere continues at the current rate for another century or so, it could precipitate the breakup of the subtropical cloud belt that currently reflects back into space about 30 per cent of the sun’s light.
With that giant stratocumulus reflector gone, the earth’s surface temperature would rise quite abruptly. By about 8 degrees celsius, according to Tapio Schneider, Colleen Kaul and Kyle Pressel. That would be in addition to the approximately 4 degrees of extra warming generated directly by the carbon accumulation.” smh.com.au/politics/federal/inconvenient-truths-for-our-coal-cuddling-pm-20190301-p5119o.html
” In the simulations, stratocumulus decks become unstable and break up into scattered clouds when CO2 levels rise above 1,200 ppm. ”
“Possible climate transitions from breakup of stratocumulus decks under greenhouse warming”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0310-1
£62.
Support “ Plan S
Plan S is an initiative for Open Access publishing that was launched in September 2018. The plan is supported by cOAlition S, an international consortium of research funders. Plan S requires that, from 2020, scientific publications that result from research funded by public grants must be published in compliant Open Access journals or platforms.”
https://www.coalition-s.org/
” In the simulations, stratocumulus decks become unstable and break up into scattered clouds when CO2 levels rise above 1,200 ppm.”
Current levels are about 400, so they’d have to multiply by 3 for this scenario to play out. Not exactly “a future for the planet if emissions stay as they are”.
Sydney silk Bret Walker is handling Pell’s appeal, but doesn’t mean that Richter has been put in the (cardinal, or even venal) sin bin, regardless of his performance in the trial. The skills needed to assess evidence, cross examine witnesses and dazzle a jury are different to those needed to argue points of law before three judges of an appeal court.
Conservatives in politics and the media have spent years demonising Africans. Peter Dutton tells us Melbournians fear going out after dark ‘cos Africans while Miranda Devine, Andrew Bolt and co. whip up the hateful racist mob at every opportunity.
Yet no conservative ever spends a minute worrying about whether the hate frenzy they’ve whipped up might poison the well of public opinion and prevent an African-Australian from getting a fair trial.
Nope, the conservatives save their tears Cardinal Pell, a man who has dodged numerous accusations of sexual assault on minors dating back to 1961, when he was a 19 year old seminarian accused of sexual assaulting little boys at a youth camp.
ps.- there is a significant and well integrated South Sudanese community in the town near where I live. The only violence associated with them that I am aware of is a case in which a group of intoxicated white guys jumped out of car and beat a South Sudanese guy senseless as he was walking along the footpath.
So Chris Pyne’s quit. I had my money on him being the next opposition leader, and this… actually shakes me a little bit.
I mean, he’s been manager of government business in the house since the liberals were elected: this isn’t a man who shies away from a low-profile high-workload job. Done an outstanding job too, it’s worth noting. And he’s done his time as senior cabinet minister and all of that, on any shortlist of candidates for next leader he’d have to be pretty high up. His seat looks safe enough, too [~5% tpp], or certainly worth a roll of the dice if the swing is what the public polls are saying.
So really the only reason that comes to mind for Chris Pyne to quit is because somebody’s told him the party would never vote for him as opposition leader because he wasn’t enough of a dumb fuck.
KT2
I did correct my omission. Frankly I thought at the time that a new topic of conversation was needed given the stream of low level drivel regarding the Pell trial.
Poselequestion. Cheers.
“the stream of low level drivel” [ plenty of messaging, hardly any mesaages ] + sandpit just makes sandcastles. Very ephemeral. I checked meaning and free dictionary happened by serendipity to have a fantastically relevant quote.
Ephemeral: Lasting for a markedly brief time: “There remain some truths too ephemeral to be captured in the cold pages of a court transcript” (Irving R. Kaufman).
Love serendipity.
Irving Kaufman – from Truman on… death penalty, and gave a life back to others. And “Kaufman presided over the three-judge appeals court panel reviewing the deportation of John Lennon and rejected the government’s attempt to deport him from the United States to the United Kingdom based upon his having pleaded guilty in England to possession of hashish.”
wikipedia.org/wiki/Irving_Kaufman
@ Collins Street. Chris Pyne was a member before 2004 so gets a defined benefit pension (more than $200000) based on his Ministerial salary. I suspect the prospect of forthcoming electoral annihilation probably had him counting his pennies.
Pity. He was an effective Minister.
@harryclarke
Yes and no. Pyne had a free option. He could have contested the election and, assuming a bad loss and the prospect of many years in opposition, resigned afterwards with the same pension, which is based on highest salary, not the last salary.
Rats deserting a sinking ship.
Nature bats last, sure, but how would you like your toast?
KT2, March 2, 2019 at 9:27 am: “climate scientists at the California Institute of Technology this week produced a new glimpse of a possible long-term future for the planet if emissions stay as they are. … With that giant stratocumulus reflector gone, the earth’s surface temperature would rise quite abruptly. By about 8 degrees celsius, …”
http ://johnmenadue.com/peter-sainsbury-sunday-environmental-round-up-3-march-2019/#more-25632
PETER SAINSBURY: …My graph this week comes from a report by McKinsey (page 29) who have, they assert, used their global expertise to compile a ‘Reference Case’ of what the global energy future looks like. The graph below illustrates their prediction that energy-related carbon emissions will increase until 2024 and then fall slowly to be 22% below the peak by 2050. If McKinseys are correct, we’re toast!
http ://johnmenadue.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Global-emissions-by-fuel-2016-50.png
Here’s the McKinsey page. Some graphics -“This downward trajectory, however, is still far off from a 2-degree pathway* – and the same somewhat problematic pdf report link per Sainsbury:
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2019
https ://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Oil%20and%20Gas/Our%20Insights/Global%20Energy%20Perspective%202019/McKinsey-Energy-Insights-Global-Energy-Perspective-2019_Reference-Case-Summary.ashx
http ://tapri.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Saunders-2018-finalV3.pdf
Why Do We Have a ‘Big Australia’?
Stephen Saunders 1 October 2018:
Realign our population trajectory with the environmental constraints
Whether or not under the name of ‘carrying capacity’, let us put the environmental parameters and
constraints back into our population plans. If these were taken at all seriously, we would see the need to
redraw our 2050 (not 2030) population plan much closer to 30m…
Smith9 & Svante. Sandpit.
This thread needs ointment. My eyes are dull of sandcastles.
nottrampis says:
March 1, 2019 at 7:58 am
We now have Guardian and SMH pieces ( they have senior barristers) saying an appeal looks good.
harryrclarke says:
March 1, 2019 at 9:23 am
I think Pell will be acquitted on appeal.
Oops.
Oops +1 with caveat.
2 to 1 not unanimous.
So pell defence seeking leave to apeal to high court.
My prediction;
High court will hear appeal.
Reject appeal but not a unanimous decision.
And by the time it is heard pell will be nearing parole.
Has his old earthly boss, the pope, said anything?
As we have seen, predicting what judges will say is a mug’s game. A lot of people who were so sure of themselves have been left wiping the omelette from their visages. As Mark Twain said, “It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.”
To be fair, the appeals court were unanimous on rejecting 2 of the 3 grounds for appeal and of the main one, the dissenting justice said “that in relation to the first incident, if the complainant’s evidence was the only evidence, he might well have found it difficult to say that the jury, acting reasonably, were ‘bound’ to have a reasonable doubt about the Cardinal’s guilt.”
It should be pointed out that prior to Pell’s conviction the evidence against Pell has been tried in many jurisdictions and in each instance Pell’s defence has been able to cross examine that evidence and yet the evidence has prevailed and been found to be credible.
IMO it was a great day for justice and for the jury system.
AFAIK an appeal to the HC would have to be on a point of law (they first must seek leave to appeal) and I doubt if they will have a snowflakes chance with that.
“IMO it was a great day for justice and for the jury system.”
I just watched Justice Ferguson explaining things, so I don’t know where you get that one rog. Its an incredibly ambiguous day for justice. I don’t think any of us can know that he’s guilty of the specific charges to hand. Certainly I myself lack that gift of second sight. An uncertain situation can never be a good day for justice, when a man has been given such a heavy sentence. The situation seems to be as much about referred pain as anything else. Of course I understand the pain. I just don’t think that we can be certain that its been focused at the right place.
The prosecution’s case wasn’t only the victim’s testimony. They called 23 other witnesses. The defence submitted no evidence: nothing.
Click to access pell_v_the_queen_2019_vsca_186_-_web_2.pdf
The defence’s dilemma: having to argue impossibility when you have no evidence of impossibility.
Why was the defence in that dilemma: because when Pell was interviewed by police, in between all the long fumbling pauses, and watching the cogs turning, and destroying that lolly on the desk with his fingers (see his lawyer looking at that), that’s what he emphatically argued over and again. That it was impossible, because there were too many people around, and he was never alone.
The defence couldn’t drop that at any stage, else it would have been obvious he was lying. But they couldn’t find anyone to offer him the alibi he’d claimed he had. What he so emphatically told police in that interview, turned out to be completely unsupported.
There were so many people around, it was impossible for his comings and goings to go unnoticed. Yet nobody could provide an alibi. Really. Pell asserted to police he couldn’t have gone unseen. It turned out nobody knew where he was.
Child exploiters are charming and try to get to know the kids. They would put six months into gaining the kids trust before springing inappropriate behaviour on them. This fellow is aloof, unapproachable if you are not a celebrity, always surrounding himself with pomp and ceremony. He had a string of alibis. Thats the whole point of it. Every aspect of what he was accused of amounts to an alibi by way of the sheer ridiculous nature of it. Looks like a psychological operation more than a trial. Watching the interview is a bit like watching building 7 fall out of a clear blue sky. If it is indeed a giant psychological operation then the accusations were probably so constructed as to be a bad joke.
I think its possible to know that he’s not guilty of the specific charges laid. But on the other hand, and at the very least, its clearly not possible for any of us to be sure he’s guilty.
Graeme, I would have disappointed to find you thought it had nothing to do with the twin towers.
Child rapists aren’t all charming and funny, offering sweets full of sedatives, and ‘getting to know’ their victims. Oh, you’re a bit tired are you, lie down and get comfy, does it feel nice if I stroke your forehead.
Who on earth told you that? Are you seriously that naïve?
As thousands upon thousands of police reports and convictions attest, many are violent psychopaths who use fear and strength and size to overwhelm children. They don’t groom their victims for months, they literally just rape them when they get the opportunity.
It’s common for teachers and priests who are paedophiles to target kids they’ve caught misbehaving, precisely because nobody is going to believe them. Those kids would say anything to get out of the trouble. They’re very aware trying to tell someone is likely to get them into much more trouble.