Adani’s Carmichael mine is unlikely to go ahead, and most people know it

That’s the headline on my latest piece in the Guardian, and sums up the content pretty accurately. A couple of key paras over the fold

The people of Townsville have seen announcement after announcement of the project’s imminent start, beginning as long ago as 2015. In June 2017, the regional headquarters was opened with a statement of “final approval” and a promise to start pre-construction works. It was even said that Gautam Adani would be there to cut the ribbon. Sadly, the event was put off because of forecast rain. The sun returned, but Mr Adani did not.

…. more argument on why everyone is shadow boxing on this ….

[Nevertheless] Adani plays a crucial symbolic role in all this. If the Carmichael project went ahead, it would open up the entire Galilee Basin, with catastrophic consequences for the global climate. Conversely, a clear-cut victory over Adani would signal the end of new thermal coalmines in Australia and, before too long, globally.

3 thoughts on “Adani’s Carmichael mine is unlikely to go ahead, and most people know it

  1. don’t disagree with any of the article except for the seatpoll.
    As either the admirable Kevin Bonham or the pollbudger would tell you seatpolls are worthless. You might as well look at betting in the seat for all the value you would get from it. Perhaps you might have said the vote in the Qld election did not show up any ‘Adani’ vote at all.

  2. From the linked Guardian piece: “Adani plays a crucial symbolic role in all this. If the Carmichael project went ahead, it would open up the entire Galilee Basin, with catastrophic consequences for the global climate. Conversely, a clear-cut victory over Adani would signal the end of new thermal coalmines in Australia and, before too long, globally.

    Well, hold on, not so fast, all may soon still be cooked. Never ‘misunderestimate’ the duplicity of the duopoly oligopoliy servants LIb&Lab, nor get between them and their mutual big secretive donors. Consider what liblab state and federal are cooking up with $1.64billion of initial taxpayer funds in the north Galilee Basin, close to existing rail, just west of Townsville, and right under the noses of electorates further afield who focus on the Adani Carmichael project hundreds of kilometres away in the central Galilee…

    Some background. First with some snips from a conversation seen:

    https ://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-can-55-million-get-clive-palmer-back-into-parliamentary-game-115811#comment_1900070
    Hugh McColl, In reply to David Young, 190424
    David, anyone in Herbert voting for Labor is inviting the establishment of a brand new coal export facility on the about-to-be-expanded Port of Townsville reclamation. The coal will come from the north Galilee Basin, hundreds of kilometres north of Adani, and located right next to the Mount Isa to Townsville railway. Take a look at TerraCom, a company stacked with ALP heavyweights, and holding an MOU with the ALP government-owned Port of Townsville, itself stacked with ALP luminaries. The 152 hectare reclamation, widened shipping channel and proposed rail corridor, all taxpayer funded, will for the first time overcome the one obstacle preventing exploitation of the north Galilee coalfield – no export port. In one step a Labor government would slip around Adani and Abbot Point, slide around the Reef 2050 sustainable ports plan and put a huge stockpile and coal loader right in the middle of the Dugong Protection Area in World Heritage-listed Cleveland Bay. Talk about chutzpah.

    In a few days, David, nominations for Herbert will close and we can see who the actual candidates are. If you wanted to see all Galilee Basin coal stay in the ground who would you vote for? And I don’t mean who your first preference might be. I’m thinking about the least worst candidate between Liberal and Labor – because one or the other will actually win the seat. It seems like all the likely candidates are pro-coal except the Greens and they are rooting around down at Adani while the ALP lines up the last ducks for a final assault on World Heritage Cleveland Bay and Magnetic Island. Imagine a metre of rain in a week on an open coal stockpile on a finger of land out in the bay. Imagine a metre of rain plus a couple of metres of storm surge in a 250 kph cyclone. Where do you think the coal will end up?

    If all this is hysterical greenie rubbish then let’s hear Bill Shorten put the kybosh on it right now. Let’s see a clear statement from Labor and the Liberals that they will actively prevent Galilee coal coming to Townsville. Then we can think about who the gullible fools are.

    https ://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-can-55-million-get-clive-palmer-back-into-parliamentary-game-115811#comment_1900218
    Hugh McColl, In reply to David Young, 190424
    Ken, you say: “Labor is on record as saying that taxpayer money will not be used. In view also that global banks are refusing funding, it seems a stretch that these multi-billion projects might proceed, given the current economic climate.”

    But you are talking about a project hundreds of kilometres away in central Queensland at Adani and its railway. I’m talking about an existing railway and a port in Townsville which is already doing major business with existing mining companies, some of which have expansion plans but only if they can move low value bulk product on a large scale. I hate to break it to you but the Townsville port expansion is already approved, the first steps, all taxpayer funded ($75 million each, state and federal), are already underway and there’s a billion dollars parked at the state government pipeline waiting to go.

    https ://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-can-55-million-get-clive-palmer-back-into-parliamentary-game-115811#comment_1900445
    Hugh McColl, In reply to David Young, 190424
    Ken, you are caught up in your obsession with Adani and the possibility of stranded assets. Adani and the rest in the southern Galilee cannot move until they have a rail line to the coast. That is their specific billion dollar obstruction. But in the north Galilee rail connection is not an issue, it’s the lack of a port that is the problem. The Townsville port expansion can solve that problem for Terracom. Adani and all those others cannot use Townsville but Terracom specifically can. That is why they have an MOU with the Townsville Port. They want to export out of Townsville and none of their coal competitors can do that. It’s that simple. But even better, taxpayers will fund the port construction.

    http ://terracomresources.com/australian-projects/
    http ://terracomresources.com/australian-projects/hughenden/
    Resource and Exploration
    ..The stratigraphy of the coal reported in this resource correlates well with regional stratigraphy that has been previously published for the Galilee Basin, with the Betts Creek Beds Coal Sequence proving similar to that defined at the Adani – Carmichael Deposit and the Hancock – Alpha Deposit.
    Infrastructure
    ..Hughenden is located in close proximity to existing infrastructure with the Mt Isa to Townsville rail line running across the project area.
    TerraCom signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Port of Townsville Limited (POTL) in December 2010, to conduct a feasibility study on the logistics of exporting coal through Townsville Port via the Eastern Access Rail Corridor and utilising the Townsville State Development Area.
    In December 2012, TerraCom agreed to partner to major logistics company, Asciano Limited, to develop an integrated ‘pit to port’ solution for the Hughenden Project.

    http ://terracomresources.com/australian-projects/white-mountain/
    Infrastructure
    ..Like TerraCom’s Hughenden project, the Clyde Park Coal project is located in close proximity to the Mt Isa to Townsville rail line, with the southern boundary of the tenement located approximately 15 kilometres from a potential rail siding at Pentland.
    This project also benefits from the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Port of Townsville Limited (POTL) signed in December 2010, to conduct a feasibility study on the logistics of exporting coal through Townsville Port via the Eastern Access Rail Corridor.
    In December 2012, TerraCom agreed to partner to major logistics company, Asciano Limited, to develop an integrated ‘pit to port’ solution for the Hughenden Project.
    Feasibility and development
    ..The stratigraphy of the coal reported in this resource correlates well with regional stratigraphy that has been previously published for the Galilee Basin, with the Betts Creek Beds Coal Sequence proving similar to that defined at the Adani – Carmichael Deposit and the Hancock – Alpha Deposit.
    Further drilling will continue up dip towards the interpreted sub crop of the Betts Creek Beds Coal Seams to expand the potential open cut resources. With this style of mining in mind, resource calculations were cut-off at 300m depth from surface.

    http ://terracomresources.com/australian-projects/pentland/
    Infrastructure
    ..The Pentland Project will benefit from the same strategic opportunities as its sister projects at Hughenden and Clyde Park including the Memorandum of Understanding signed with Port of Townsville Limited (POTL) and a commercial agreement with Asciano Limited to conduct a feasibility study on the logistics of exporting coal through Townsville Port

    https ://www.qrc.org.au/our-members/terracom-limited/
    ..In Queensland, the Company’s assets cover an estimated 18,000 km2 across the coal bearing Bowen, Galilee and Maryborough Basins. The tenements are strategically positioned close to existing rail and port infrastructure.
    ..The Company is driven by a highly experienced board and senior management team that is moving quickly to develop its high priority coal deposits in both Mongolia and Australia.
    ..TerraCom is committed to:
    working cooperatively within the communities where it operates
    creating jobs for local people
    supporting local businesses and contractors
    helping to improve local services and infrastructure wherever possible.

    https ://smallcaps.com.au/terracom-thermal-coal-expansion-plans-queensland/
    ..In addition to Blair Athol, TerraCom has also set its sights on developing two further coal projects in Queensland – the Northern Galilee thermal coal project and the Springsure “high energy prime thermal coal” project.

    https://www.townsville-port.com.au/channel-upgrade/background/
    Demand for trade is increasing, so too is Townsville – the Northern Australia gateway
    ..The $1.6 billion Port Expansion Project (PEP) is a long-term development plan for the port. It includes capital dredging for channel widening, land reclamation to develop a new outer harbour, wharves, and associated infrastructure to be constructed by 2040.
    About… Exports Sugar, timber, general cargo, fertiliser, containers, cattle, refrigerated meat, magnetite, copper, lead, zinc, zinc ferrite, zinc oxide, silver, molasses, sand, gravel, coke, project cargo, tallow.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Townsville#Expansion

    https ://www.queensland.com/en-au/information/port-of-townsville
    ..Townsville is the number one port in Australia for copper, zinc, lead and sugar exports and services 70 per cent of the Northern Australia population. More than 20 shipping lines operate out of the Townsville Port, offering more 40 services and covering 136 ports around the world.

    The Port of Townsville was crowned the Australian Port or Terminal of the Year in both 2015 and 2016.

    https ://www.northqueenslandregister.com.au/story/5626772/port-steaming-ahead/
    Port of Townsville channel widening
    ..A MAJOR expansion of the Port of Townsville will soon get under way after Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced a $75 million contribution to the project.

    The $193 million project involves widening the shipping channels to accommodate larger ships and is the first stage of works under the $1.64(billions) Townsville Port Expansion.

    The Federal funding matches the $75 million already contributed by the State Government.
    ..“After more than ten years in the planning, our team is ready to start delivering the biggest investment project in our history.”

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