Monday Message Board

Back again with another Monday Message Board.

Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. If you would like to receive my (hopefully) regular email news, please sign up using the following link You can also follow me on Twitter @JohnQuiggin, at my Facebook public page   and at my Economics in Two Lessons page

69 thoughts on “Monday Message Board

  1. GB It might be crazy but its starting to happen. The whole report is an interesting read. Part of the reason for the quick disruption is that in the case of the dairy industry only a small proportion of the milk produced goes to whole milk. The vast bulk is used in the rest of the food industry and doesn’t have to be a perfect substitute, just good enough. Exponential growth ( yay capitalism ) will cause the cost to quickly decline below real milk prices and the rest will happen very quickly.

  2. Its a fundamentally unsound idea. Just shows how much industry is now controlled by the whims of lunatic financiers. It should be opposed vigorously for environmental and energy stress reasons. To stop floods, droughts and fires we need many feet of black spongy soil and that means water harvesting and herbivores. This Frankenstein meat must go. It should probably be outlawed as another aberration foisted upon us by the finance cartel.

  3. Fossil CO2 and GHG emissions of all world countries, 2019 report
    “Main findings
    Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels combustion and processes further increased by 1.9% in 2018 compared to the previous year reaching a total of 37.9 Gt CO2. In 2018, China, the United States, India, the EU28, Russia and Japan – the world’s largest CO2 emitters – together accounted for 51% of the population, 65% of global Gross Domestic Product World Bank, 80% of total global fossil fuel consumption and emitted 67.5% of total global fossil CO2. Emissions from these five countries and the EU28 show different changes in 2018 compared to 2017: the largest increase in the emissions between 2017 and 2018 is found for India (+7.2%), followed by Russia (+3.5%), the United States (+2.9%) and China (+1.5%)…”

    Fossil CO2 and GHG emissions of all world countries 2019 Report
    Executive summary
    Policy context
    “…In order to track the progress in GHG emission reduction strategies, the Paris Agreement has set the transparency framework under which all Parties are requested to implement bottom-up inventories of the national GHG emissions and to report them to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).Reported emission inventories, however, do not cover the entire globe, have data gaps for specific sectors, and lack decades-long time series.

    The European Commission’s in-house Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) fills these gaps, completing the global picture with time-series for each country, contributing to enhanced transparency and providing a benchmark against which national and global estimates can be compared. The current version of the EDGAR database (EDGARv5.0_FT2018) contains estimates of fossil CO2emissions from 1970 to 2018, while estimated non-CO2 GHGs (CH4, N2O and F-gases) emissions are provided from 1970 to 2015.” – p 4

    Key conclusions
    “…Trends (2018) vary also across the other 11 countries with more than 1% share of total global fossil CO2 emissions, showing decreases of 4.5% in Germany, 2.3% in Mexico, 1.3%in Brazil, 1.1% in Saudi Arabia and 0.1% in Canada, and increases of 0.6% in Turkey,0.9% in Australia, 1% in South Africa, 2.9% in Korea, 4.8% in Iran and Indonesia. Emissions from international aviation and shipping increased by 1% and 2% respectively compared to 2017, and are in 2018 equivalent to 3.3% of total global fossil CO2 emissions.” – p 6

    “…China (1.5%), the United States (2.9%), Russia (3.6%) and India (7.2%) all increased their emissions in 2018, representing 29.7%, 13.9%, 4.6% and 6.9% respectively of the global total. Outside the larger emitting countries, the largest increases are observed for Iran by 4.8% (1.9% share), South Korea by 2.9% (1.8%share) and Indonesia by 4.8% (1.5% share). Global CO2 per capita emissions have increased by ca 17% from 4.25 t CO2/cap/yr to 4.97 t CO2/cap/yr between 1990 and 2018. Among the EU Member States, Germany, responsible for 2% of the global emissions, had the largest reduction (4.5%). ” – p 12

    “…China’s fossil CO2 emissions, after a slight decrease in 2015 (-0.1%) increased in 2016by 1.3%, in 2017 by 1.1% and in 2018 by 1.5% reaching 11.3 Gt CO2. The equivalent per capita CO2 emissions (8 t CO2/cap/yr) in 2018 are 18% higher than the European average, while CO2 emissions per GDP unit, amount to about 499 kg CO2 /1000USD(PPP)/yr, i.e., the highest of the top-15 emitting countries.” – p 13

    “… Per capita GHG emissions decreased in the 1980s and 1990s to a minimum of 5.7 t CO2eq/cap/yr but have since increased by 13.4% from 2000 to 2015 to reach 6.7 t CO2eq/cap/yr. In 1990 CH4 and N2O emissions accounted for 23.6% (7.7 GtCO2eq) and 6.3% (2.1 Gt CO2eq) of the global total, respectively, but these shares decreased to 18.8% (9.2 Gt CO2eq) and 5.2% (2.6 Gt CO2eq) by 2015, respectively. These patterns can be explained by the changes in the economic structure of most emerging economies, moving from agricultural societies, with a large share of N2O and CH4 emissions coming from agricultural activities to industrialised economies, with significant increases in fossil CO2 emissions from the energy and industrial sectors.” – p 15

    Good one-page graphic summaries..
    World p 33, Australia p 47, China p 77, Saudi Arabia p 200, UK p 235…

  4. Svante,
    Yes I fully share your pessimissism. The end is no more than the decades away. Those who think that technology will save us if the face of all the locked in sociological or geo-physical trends are like the parents of children with stage 5 cancer who are confident who are confident that a medical breakthrough that will save their child is just around the corner. Such things do actually happen. But they clealy can not be counted upon.
    That is why my mottto has become, WRITE A BETTER ENDING. Of course the slogan write a better ending is not directed at everyone. It is directed at the world’s military intellegence branches, and the world’s secret services, and the world’s police forces, in particular the internal affairs divisions and murder detectives. Of course some lucky (unlucky?) people outside of these circles may also end up playing a role if they are in the right place at the right time.
    Of course the chances that anyone will be motivated to actually undertake action to WRITE A BETTER ENDING are remote. People who work in those institutions that I mentioned above would have to not only betray the leadership of their own organizations they would have to in many cases betray their own colleagues. Lots of people would consider betraying your own colleagues evil. I myself would find it commendable when ones colleagues have been acting with less integrity than the members of the drug cartels for decades.
    But even if there are people in such positions who want to do something they have to know how. Ones options when acting alone are clearly quite limited. Yet attempting to build a group of more than one person comes with risk at each attempt to find an ally. I myself am generally a very risk averse person.
    But the more pissed off a person gets the more motivated they become to take a risk. And there are people who actually thrive on risk. On the other hand many of the people who thrive on risk also thrive on status. An undertaking to out manipulate master manipulators is not one in which one can look forward to acclaim, disdain is much more likely.
    There is one point that is crucial though when considering this possibilty. The point is that the defection of one individual is almost surely destined to be a lost cause. But if a unit were to defect in mass the possiblities of creating a movement of defectors grows enourmously. The leader’s world’s military industrial complexes of course recognized this long before I was born. Therefore there are multiple overlaping systems of watchers watching the watchers. But in the end this does not get them anywhere. It just created a system in which there are more opportunities for an entire unit to defect.
    I suppose the reasoning was, yes this may happen but then such a unit will have much more work to do before it can corrupt (from the point of view of the leadership) the entire system.
    There is of course very little evidence that an entire unit of the military industrial complex of any country, let alone the USA or any of its close major allies has ever occured. But little is a lot more than none at all.
    Allow me to review the scanity evidence up to this point. Of course I am aware that evidence in no way shape or form rises to the level of proof.
    2005 June 5th, A US Army Colonel Westhuising, a former ethics instructor at West Point commits suicide and leaves a scathing suicide not behind. Could that act have provide a reasonable spark?
    2006 December 26 through Janaury 2007. What I am about to write has never appeared in any open source. But something did occur at the end of this period that makes sense in the context that I am about to provide. I aquired information that a US institution was setting up a front organization in Leipzig Germany. I did not have direct information that the purpose of this organization was to assist in manipulating the results of German Federal elections. I passed on my information to the German Bundeskriminalamt which is their version of the FBI. At that time I was unaware or had forgotten that the German Agency more responsible for investigating my alligation was German Verfassungsschutz.
    It was a lucky break because the public perception is that the leadership of this organization is very right wing. I also latter learned that what I discovered was quite similar to the case of Chrisopher Bryce I think his name in comming across information of the US government trying to manipulate the Australian elections. Now a cynic may just say that I am reporting this to make myself look good. But it is actually for a much more importanat reason. It is to provide a plausible story of how introductions could have been made between defectors in the US intellegence community and the German intellegence community. Now of course my word may not count for much. But if you search you will be able to find that at the end of January in 2007 the German government issued arrests warrants against 6 or 8 Americans who it was publically aledged worked for the CIA. The official reason for these arrests warrants were for kidnapping a German citizen of middle eastern descent and having him sent to another country for torture. Yes drawing a connection between my alligation and the alligation of the German courts is certianly not sceintific.
    Another that has troubled me for over a decade is whether I had actually uncovered something real or if was just staged to test how I would react with this information. Either way it could have created a path for the expansion of a conspiracy.
    Of course one could cast doubt on my story be saying if it was true I would have likely been arrested.
    If not arrested I would have at least lost my position with in the military community. But the obvious answer to this is if I would have been arrested then a lot of really embarrasing details to the military would have come out. In fact even retaliating against me or my family would just have confirmed my accusation.
    2007, March 9th, A retired (jewish heritage) FBI agent, Robert Levison, travels to Iran and disappears. Now to me this is a super suspicious event. The US governement has changed its story many times about why Mr. Levison made this trip to Iran. The latest version, that he was on an unauthorized CIA mission sounds as phoney as hell for many reasons. The vast majority of FBI agents are not stupid.
    Of course any retired FBI agent of Jewish heritage would know that by traveling to Iran alone he would be taking a huge risk. He must have considered the risk worth it. He must have also figured that he would get away with because he would be brining with him something that he figured that the Iranians would find of immense value.
    2008-2016 Not much here to report except the increased tensions between the US and Nato on one hand against Russia, China, and the leftist movements in Latin America. The reasons for these tensions are completely ludicrous. Is the real reason that a US conspiracy would need to cooperate with foriegn intellgence service to help the keep score in a manner of speaking. What I mean is to help determine who is really on the side of the conspiracy and who is only pretending to be on the side of the conspiracy to work thier way in to leadership positions to be able to derail it from achieving its objectives?
    Ok I am going to write the most recent part of the story in a following comment incase this one is to long to send.

  5. 2016 July 31, U.S: Major General (P) John Rossi commits suicdie. He was scheduled to take command of the Space Command (I think it was) with in days. I do not think that he was murdered.
    But I do think that when he learned about what his command was supposed to be prepared to do with in the time period that he would be expected to command it he could not live with himself. Ok this is not directly related to the growth of a conspiracy. It is evidence that there is among some officers a minimal standard of ethics.
    2018 November 30, Fleet (?) Admiral Stearny commits suicide. Yes I do think that he was murdered
    But I will have to finish this story later. He was in charge of US naval forces in the middle east.

  6. “There is of course very little evidence that an entire unit of the military industrial complex of any country, let alone the USA or any of its close major allies has ever occured. But little is a lot more than none at all. … It is evidence that there is among some officers a minimal standard of ethics.”

    Obama had to sack/reassign and reform the entirety of human resources then deployed for US ICBM launch sites. On the slide for years. A near miss that one! At least under Putin alcohol consumption in Russia is markedly on the slide!

  7. Svante,
    Yes I am aware of that.
    I had left off with the death of Admiral Stearney. His death was an unparalleled event in US history. If it really was a suicide it was the first time in US history that a commander above the O-7 level in command of US forces actually engaged in combat operations has committed suicide. If on the other hand he was murdered it would also be a first time event in US history. The timing of the event is very suspicious. In Sept 2018 it was announced that the DOD had ordered their serivices to be prepared for operations against Iran.
    Then after his death his 2nd in command did not acting command over the forces that Admiral Stearney had been in charged of. A Fleet Admiral was rushed in from the Pentagon to take command of the forces. And investigators were brought in from outside the command to investigate his death. Of course that last step could be justified on the grounds of avoiding an appearance of conflict of interest since anyone with in the command could have theoretically had a personal reason to want the Admiral dead. (He was having an affair with my wife kind of thing)
    Then just a few weeks after his death the Stars and Stripes reported that a civilian employee at the US Army Hospital in Landstuhl was under investigation for trying to poison the hospital blood supply. Of course scientists would never dare say that there is a connection between the incident at Landstuhl and the death of Admiral Stearney. But it would certianly occur to an artist, or a real estate agent, to wonder if there was some kind of connection and if we put these two peices of the puzzel together if they might fit neatly somewhere in to a even larger part of a puzzle.
    Because no suspect was named in the article about the attempt to poison the blood supply in Landstuhl my conclusion is that it is a 100% fake story. But the question then is, who is it designed to fake and why? That is another long story in itself.
    2019 June 20 President Trump makes an announcement that he canceled a planned US attack on Iran 10 minutes before the targets would have been destroyed. Yet the details of this story do not make any sense and no one believes this version of events. On the other hand no one, except me, has ever suggested that the reason that Trump was forced to cancel this attack is because something went seriously wrong. I can not say for sure what it was that went wrong. But I can come up with a couple of possibillities. One that more than one field grade officer refused to carry out their orders because this attack had not been authorized by Congress. Or, there was some kind of technical glitch in the equipment or ordenance that was to be used in the attack.
    A short time later the Senate passed a resolution that President Trump does not need congressional approval to order such an attack. Some weeks after that the House of Representives passed a resolution that Trump does need congressional approval.
    The other version could be supported by the fact that there were two crashes of military aircraft in Germany a few days after the aborted attack on Iran and on the day that these crashes occured the White House was “shut down” for a while because a package had been thrown over the fence at the White House.
    Another thing that could concievably be connected is that 3 field grade officers in the US fleet that is responsible for the western pacific and most of the Indian Ocean were relieved of from their positions in August or September 2019. Units from this fleet could have had a supporting role in the planned attack on Iran.
    One thing that really surprises me though is if there is a conspiracy and it has reached a point that it can get away with kllling Admirals, and therefore potentially Generals, I would expect to see many signs of instability in the system. The troubles that Trump is going through do not count as signs of instabilty for the system. His troubles are just a play scripted years in advance to decieve people as to the true nature of the rulers. This would have nothing to do with the type of conspiracy that is needed to bring change that we can believe in.

  8. One other piece of background information would be approriate in determining whether or not this story makes sense.
    When I was on active duty in the early 1980s I was subject to an Article 32 investigation. Maybe I forget the exact terminology but that was near 40 years ago now. I was not charged with any crime. But suspcions about where my loyalties lie was clearly never erased. I was transfered to a different unit.
    While at this second unit there was an incident in the Netherlands that I was involved in. There was a díspute between the US forces operating in the Netherlands and the Dutch authorities. Captain Raymond Duncan did not support the US position and supported the Dutch government who were after all the legitimate authority in the dispute. I enthusiasitlcally supported Captian Duncan’s position.
    Well a few months later there was a cook out at the battalion commander’s house. During this party the battalion commander gave a speech. The essence of this speech is that the US in United States stands for us. Captian Duncan replied that he agreed with most of the speech but that we are not obligated to follow orders under every case just because higher ranking officers say so. He said that to follow orders to attack a country that had not attacked the US or a US ally would nullify the WW2 war crime trials. If we were to follow such orders we would be acting like nazis not as Americans.
    I enthusiasitcally agreed and added that in all of Americas war of the past we had been the agressors most of the time. Therefore a time would surely come in the future in which we would be asked to wage a war of aggression. Therefore we better psycologically prepare ourselves to say no because if we say yes we will be acting like nazis not like true American officers. I also added that even if a vote by the entire population were held on whether or not to attack another country that did not attack the US first and such a vote were to pass by 100% the American people do not have the authority to delegate the power to attack another country to the US government therefore such an order is null and void no matter who it comes from.
    Well now many decades later. I realize that I was just being tested. It was only one of many tests that I was given without my knowledge. The fact that I had to be tested on these subjects shows what a deplorable defunct institution the US military was even at that time. And history shows that the leadership has only become more and more corrupt.
    I cant wait for harsh justice to be dealt out to those that deserve it. That desire may cloud my judgement.
    Who will write a better ending.

  9. I just realized that it might not be clear why this information in the story above is relevenat since so much the story is abbreviated. I guess the key thing is that the Netherlands was the NATO country most penetrated by Warsaw Pact spies.

  10. GB – “Try science.”
    And as if to underline that message, a US research group has predicted that – on the basis of experiments so far – global heating could reduce rice yields by 40% by the end of the century, and at the same time intensify levels of arsenic in the cereal that provides the staple food for almost half the planet.

    …Both the warning of catastrophic climate change and the steps to avoid it are familiar. But researchers at Stanford University in the US say they really did not expect the impact of world temperature rise on the rice crop – the staple for two billion people now, and perhaps 5 bn by 2100 – to be so severe.

    …The Stanford group report in the journal Nature Communications that they looked more closely at what climate change could do to rice crops. Most soils contain some arsenic. Rice is grown in flooded paddy fields that tend to loosen the poison from the soil particles. But higher temperatures combined with more intense rainfall show that, in experiments, rice plants absorb more arsenic, which in turn inhibits nutrient absorption and reduces plant development. Not only did the grains contain twice the level of arsenic, the yield fell by two-fifths.

    “By the time we get to 2100, we’re estimated to have approximately 10bn people, so that would mean we have 5 billion people dependent on rice, and 2bn who would not have access to the calories they would normally need,” said Scott Fendorf, an earth system scientist at Stanford.

  11. All lies. Try science. Extra CO2 does NOT reduce rice yields. So its lies. If rice yields are to fall something other than higher CO2 is doing it. I said “try science”. I didn’t say make a dick of yourself quoting conmen. So we know that higher CO2 levels increases yields and makes bush fires more frequent, for the same reason. Its because at current CO2 levels plants can barely get enough CO2. You cannot dance from foot to foot pretending that CO2 does one thing in one area and another thing in a different area. Its all about growing plants.

    Extra CO2 cannot both reduce and increase rain. In fact CO2 is neutral as far as rain is concerned. CO2 does not nucleate raindrops. Cosmic rays do and dust does, but not CO2. But soil loss can make both floods and droughts worse. So if we are having problems in agriculture, floods, droughts, yield problems, the loss of soil can explain all three whereas higher CO2 levels cannot.

  12. G;B., Svante is trying not to do what you said: “All lies make a dick of yourself”.

    And John above, etc.

    If you quoted one, just 1 sightation instead of all you derisive sighs, you might soil yourself less enabling you brain to cease flooding us.

    And allow us to play the ball, not the person.

  13. “Projections of global rice yields account for climate change. ”

    Look at the study. Its all nonsense and projections. The way they reach is incredible. The first sentence is a big problem because in an Orwellian fashion they are saying “climate change” when they mean CO2 increase. So thats a cognitive disaster right there from the start. Unrigged data fails to make a connection between CO2 and global temperature. However even given this failure there is still a likely increase in temperature where the air is dry. Its not proven because these people are useless. But its a reasonable idea and it could effect our hot dry desert winds. Our hot dry winds barrelling across the desert and hitting our East Coast fuel could be worsened by the CO2. Not proven but cannot be ruled out.

    But rice is typically grown where the air is almost always moist. And then despite this they project a problem with arsenic. Due to warming, not due to higher CO2 levels. So its drooling idiocy right from the start. No scientific merit whatsoever. Which is why politics and too much money always causes a problem in science. But this matter has a third problem and thats oligarchical direction and oversight. Oligarchical direction for the purpose of maintaining economic rent on energy production. Thus justifying huge ponzi-loans.

  14. As you would know most of the rice is grown surrounded by water. Not all but most. Right there thats a fine air-conditioned environment. So even though no CO2-heating has been shown or should even be assumed where the air is moist … we have this secondary INHERENT air conditioning factor to the rice. Its more likely that the rice could get too cold with the weak sun, then get too warm with the breeze blowing over the water in that way. The wild speculation about an arsenic problem by these maths-boy 101 types. Quite incredible. But in this environment thats the way to get published.

  15. “As you would know most of the rice is grown surrounded by water.“

    Yup, and as we all know when the sun shines, the wind doth blow and the rain don’t fall there’s just ain’t no water to surround the rice.

    It’s a plot, I know, just have to find out who’s responsible for this dastardly deed.

  16. GB, “All lies. Try science.”
    …Another paper you also apparently won’t read, apparently wouldn’t comprehend, and on this planet also can’t shred:

    World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency
    Published: 05 November 2019
    BioScience, biz088,

    Overview of attention for article, World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency,
    published in BioScience, November 2019
    “In the top 5% of all research outputs scored by Altmetric (likely still climbing?)
    9061 – One of the highest-scoring outputs from this source (#1 of 2,297)
    High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age (99th percentile) (3 weeks! S)
    High Attention Score compared to outputs of the same age and source (95th percentile)”

    “The highest ever Altmetric Attention Score is 11980 (as of November 29, 2018 (currently 12406 S)). The score belongs to an article titled, “How Diversity Works”, published in Scientific American in (October 1st) 2014.”

  17. I used to read these things all the way through. Not just the summary and the juicy quotes but the body and everything. But its the same every time. The World Scientists warning will be on the basis of the rigged data. Rigged data doesn’t count.

    But I will remind everyone that I think there is a great deal of validity when it comes to these bush-fires. Thats the one area where I seem to be in partial agreement with everyone here. And I don’t know why they aren’t employing people like me 5 days a fortnight to do something about the fuel problem and the parched land problem. This is big. We have to get on it. I am available and eager for that sort of work. Plus I think the alarmist scientists may be able to find honest, and maybe even alarming data when it comes to desert summer temperature maximums.

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