A new sandpit for long side discussions, conspiracy theories, idees fixes and so on.
To be clear, the sandpit is for regular commenters to pursue points that distract from regular discussion, including conspiracy-theoretic takes on the issues at hand. It’s not meant as a forum for visiting conspiracy theorists, or trolls posing as such.
16 thoughts on “Sandpit”
There were lots of things that could have been done in Europe and North America to stop the spread of the Coronavirus. I will not even list those things because I do not want to embarrass anyone. But the experts, those who have recieved training in Chemical, Biological, and Nuclear warfare will know what they are.
Every thing that the Tiawanese know about the subject they learned from their military. Everything that the Tiawanese military knows about the subject they learned from the American Military. Every thing that the American Military knows about the subject they stole from the Soviet Union, but I degress. Everything that the people of Vietnam know about the subject they learned from thier military. Everything that their military knows about the subject they learned from the Soviet Union.
Do any patterns now become apparent? Do thees patterns provide a clearer picture than the debattes about masks? If the transmission of the desease could have been shut down in Tiawan and Vietnam it could have been shut down everywhere. But obviously it is reported that desease has been allowed to go rampant in so many places.
What conclusion can be drawn from the apparent lack of a good faith effort to stop the spread of the desease other than the experts REALLY WERE NOT making a good faith effort to contain the spread of the desease? Well if the experts were not really making a good faith effort to stop the spread of the desease can a person reach any other conlusions?
Curt, “Do thees patterns provide a clearer picture than the debattes about masks? ”
I tried responding to KT2’s comment yesterday on the train but the login process trapped the comment so I’ll try again today from a pc. KT2, your lancet paper actually backs up my point admirably, though you can’t tell from the abstract. There were 29 studies that they could obtain estimates from, but only three of these were in non-health-care settings. Figure 4 shows the results disaggregated by setting and shows that there was a risk reduction of only 44% for (RR 0.56) for non health care settings. These were very small studies (as opposed to the very large ones in some of the healthcare settings) and two of the three found no effect. The quality of evidence in all these studies was also poor – no RCTs and a GRADE quality of evidence of low to moderate. The best you could say about these studies is they show a moderate benefit of mask-wearing. Note that one of those studies that had quantifiable effects (Lau et al) was within households, and none of them were specifically about COVID-19 (they were for SARS). Given we know that the reproduction number of COVID-19 is somewhere between 3 and 5, a 0.56 reduction in risk still means that the virus will be more contagious (at least) than influenza and easily twice as contagious. And we don’t have any great certainty from these studies that masks will work at all.
You’re proposing to end a strategy we know works (lockdown) in favour of a strategy for which we have no strong evidence, where the best available evidence in the Lancet finds a questionable moderate effect, against the backdrop of 40 years of HIV experience that tells us that promoting barrier methods doesn’t work.
Do you have a response to this? Or indeed, to the previous 4 points I answered for you, which you ignored?
(Incidentally, in answer to another question of yours – I wear a mask every time I leave the house, as requested by my community, because I’m not a dick. But I don’t think it works. On the 18th June we had 68 cases in Japan, 41 in Tokyo. That’s an approximate tripling since the end of lockdown in Japan generally, and an 8-fold increase in Tokyo – and over that period we still had some lockdown restrictions in place. Everyone in this city is wearing masks all the time. It does not help!
faustusnotes, I apprexiate your points and passion. And the detailed reciew of the paper.
I thought your low blow of the p word laughable and ridiculous and still need to see a retraction from you on that point. If you think I rip other peoples work – detail it. Or retract insinuation .
I too have had posting problems. Due to serious crime perpetrated on myself and a relative, and identity theft, all you will see from me is text. Zero logging in or details given. To any entity.
I have a study you have probably read saying end masks for infection control full stop. Can’t see that happening anytime aoon.
I am a single parent due to events related to above para. So timely detailed study and responses are difficult for me. I have not ignored your responses but upon reading your blog and quoting your commenta to you I thought that would cease ping pong.
“You’re proposing to end a strategy we know works (lockdown) in favour of a strategy for which we have no strong evidence,” paraphrase and not nuanced. I will correct your impression sometime.
I am still keen to see “the mask” issue fully resolved.
We can bat studies showing as you say minor effects.
Papers up to 2016 seem useless. A meta review in 2013 stated not enough data.
Paper you detailed above again says as you note, a large field study needed.
And after large field study, over to the statisticians, as the small effects in various settings will need extreme justification. Or not.
I appreciate your passion. I dont appreciate the p word bandied about. I’ve involved in the f111 fleet down, organised seed funding from csiro chief sci with someone from the space lab. Nor did I sell the code for the 3rd only (1yr after cdroms released) cdrom retrival software as raw c files to telecom – I returned it to an extremely relieved developer who unbelievably left it in the board room table during negotiations. Nor ever in 5yrs at a worley parsons subsidiary as I had every costing on just about every client of every bank and the big 4. Plus access to every ecological model.
Retract insinuation or detail charge. With evidence. In the sandpit. Thanks.
Most recent intel report update about COVID-19.
Changes based upon reports of the spread of the virus in Russia.
This report should be used for entertainment purposes only. Unless
1.) There is a 15% chance that the desease is real and quite deadly and that it is being directed in very grob (?) unrefined (?) course (?) crude (?) way by Chinese Government assets around the world. If this version of reality is correct the motive for the attack was the US attack on Iran and Iraq in January of 2020 which the Chinese knew about it advance due to a mole in the US government or perhaps just a technological breakthrough that allows the Chinese to peer in to the innerworkings of the US deepstate. This version would also imply that the Chinese have a vaccine or at least an effective treatment for the desease otherwise it is unlikely that they would have released it.
2.) There is a 20% chance that the desease is simultaneously real and not real and that the spread of the virus and reports of the virus are being directed by non human sources whose technology is so advanced compared to human technology that we would be hard pressed to consider ourselves ants when our technology is compared to theirs. Humans are not even capable of understanding real and not real simultaneously because humans have trouble understanding things that go against their common sense and expirience. How our perceptions would change if we had 7 senses instead of 5.
If this is the correct version the motive for such behavior on their part could be to prevent all the ants in their ant experiment from dying.
3.) There is a 25% chance that this desease is real and that the characteristics of this desease were studied and that it was chosen from among several contenders before it was released by an international rogue movement not under the control of any government whose members are desperate to save the world from climate change by collapsing the world economy now when it might not be to late to save the world. The leaders of this organization would of also known of the planned US attacks on Iran and Iraq and the timing of the outbreakd of the desease was chosen to make it appear that the Chinese did it retaliation for that attack so that world leaders would not be looking over their shoulders and under their beds at night for people who might be betraying them. A key implication of this version is that this international rogue movement is widespread. But, it lacks the power to change things, that need to be changed, overtly
4.) There is a 40% chance that the entire pandemic crisis is a 100% psycological operation that uses statitistics and untrue stories to spread fear throughout the human population again for the purposes of collapsing the economy to save humanity from global warming. Why would I point this out if it is true?
I after all support the goal of causing the entire imperialist edifice to collapse.
Because an implication of this version is that if it is true the international rogue movement not under the control of any government is already so powerful they could take power in many places, including the USA anytime they damned well feel like it. Their members and hopefully their leaders as well are motivated by the desire to save humanity from the adverse effects of global warming. If this version is true there are other objectives that need to be achieved before the members of this movement take power away from those who have it. Honestly I do not have a clue what those objectives might be.
But that seems to me to be a good explination for why events are unfolding so slowly.
There is something REALLY COOL to consider if number 3 or 4 are the correct version of reality.
That is the international rogue movement will be trying to convince those who are not a part of it that the size and capabilities of the organization is just the opposite of what they are. Damn that is as facsinationg as hell.
THERE IS NO CHANCE WHAT SO EVER THAT THE COVID-19 VIRUS ACCIDENTLY JUST HAPPENED TO JUMP A SPECIES BARRIER AND INFECT THE HUMAN SPECIES, Any human who has studied military history as a lay person and who has a degree in Sociology, training in NBC warfare, and who has had some personal expiriences in dealing with past covert operations would know beyond any shadow of a doubt that this crisis is no accident. This virus did not escape from a lab. If by chance patient zero was infected by this desease at a wild animal food market, or any other way that would appear to be a natural explination, that event is merely the cover story to hide non human intervention in human affairs.
The version number 2 of reality has several variations depending upon who exactly the non human actors are.
I’m not quite a mirror image of that, but nearly. I’m not sure whether it works, but I figure if my community isn’t requesting it, then I won’t wear one.
If you can spare the time to consider it, though (and I understand that you may have better things to do with your time), what do you make of this?
(If it’s already been brought up, I apologise profusely: I haven’t done a cross-check for it all the way back to the beginning of this exchange.)
J-D, I aspire to write a para like “If it’s already been brought up, I apologise profusely: I haven’t done a cross-check for it all the way back to the beginning of this exchange.”.
It wasn’t, because there would be no exchange.
I have a mate who is a tesla coul nut. So I wondered about electrostatic charged filters for masks.
So for all of us… here is the ” more than you ever knew” paper about masks, particle size, effectiveness, pressure drop etc etc.
Electrostatic charged nanofiber filter for filtering airborne novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and nano-aerosols
I hope faustusnotes runs an eagle eye over these to studies.
I’m still waiting for evidence or retraction of ‘playjerism’ insinuation from faustusnotes. faustusnotes?
J-D, that paper hadn’t been brought up, and I checked it, and it has two immediate problems: 1) it uses ordinary linear regression to analyze the log of mortality rates (this is very bad practice but all too common in non-epidemiological quarters) and 2) the mask data is supposition, from a website that lists Japan as universal mask wearing based on a cnn report about Abe distributing masks. I wouldn’t put much stock in it. Also most African countries are listed as universal mask wearing, and because the epidemic hasn’t reached a lot of them yet (or mortality statistics are poor) it’s a problem to include them in the mask effect.
KT2 I’m not going to withdraw that insinuation because what you do (mixing copied text in with your own writing and then providing attribution without distinguishing between your own and the copied source) is textbook plagiarism. Any student doing that in an essay would be failed. You can fix it by learning to use blockquote tags, but if people can’t tell what is your voice and what is someone else’s then you’re doing plagiarism, whether intentional or not.
KT2 is not trying to make money, nor trying to get a qualification, nor trying to get a public reputation with those posts. Hence, it’s not a big deal. Being on a blog, it’s an informal social sharing of ideas. In any case, only capitalists get hung up on who owns ideas.
Masks can help in some cases if adequately rated and correctly worn. The key experts all say this now:
I am confident in the current advice from the Mayo clinic and CDC.
Thanks, I appreciate it.
Flattery will get you nowhere.
Ikonoklast, condoms can protect against HIV if adequately worn, yet have you noticed that HIV hasn’t gone away? What do you conclude from these three communities?
1. Men who have sex with men (MSM) in Japan: easy access to condoms and treatment, condom distribution campaigns regularly in place, low levels of testing, HIV increasing
2. Indigenous communities in Australia: access to condoms but limited testing and treatment options, syphilis increasing
3. Porn actors in America: high rates of unprotected sex with multiple partners, very regular testing, low incidence of HIV and STIs and outbreaks soon identified and stopped
Let’s look at the CDC’s advice on surgical masks:
Would you recommend condoms for the prevention of HIV – a 100% fatal disease before treatment became available – on the back of that endorsement?
The CDC advice also notes (without drawing the correct conclusion) that countries that used masks early in the pandemic (i.e. Japan and only Japan, contrary to popular myth among mask advocates) also did case isolation. This is a small confounding factor in their circumstantial evidence, wouldn’t you say?
Japan yesterday had 89 new cases nationally and 55 in Tokyo, an increase in one month exactly from ~20 cases nationally and ~5 in Tokyo. Everyone here wears masks all the time and yet it’s spreading. Any suggestions as to why?
It’s not capitalist to want to distinguish KT2’s opinion from the evidence he/she cites. Also, communism doesn’t specify the appropriation of personal possessions. It’s not inconsistent with a non-propertarian view to want to distinguish between KT2’s personal opinion and writing and the opinions and writings of others.
This post is entitled “Japan and only Japan, contrary to popular myth among mask advocates”.
With confidence faustusnotes says “that countries that used masks early in the pandemic (i.e. Japan and only Japan, contrary to popular myth among mask advocates) ”
No dates. No ref. / citation / evidence. Just assertion. 1 data.point. J-D?
Yet, “wearing protective face masks in public has been commonplace since Mongolia imposed partial quarantine due to the COVID-19 pandemic back in late January”.
“”MNT 150,000 fine for not wearing face masks
“Even though it was not compulsory, wearing protective face masks in public has been commonplace since Mongolia imposed partial quarantine due to the COVID-19 pandemic back in late January. However, the SEC sees that the public calmed down too soon and some people started walking outside without one.
“Despite the price rises, single use surgical masks or reusable cotton face masks are not that difficult to buy in Mongolia as they are just about sold in every pharmacy, retail store and supermarket.”…
Avg wage MNT996k or about 2 months wages or Aud $77.
“ULAANBAATAR (GoGo Mongolia) – According to the National Statistics Office data as of second quarter of 2017, the average monthly salary in Mongolia reaches 394 USD (966,000 MNT).”
https://mongolia.gogo.mn/r/160344 (probably playjereyzd )
“But not all public transportation was banned, within the capital the main bus lines were running, but were limited to running on “peak” hours. And even though in the U.S. the CDC advises that wearing a face mask isn’t necessary if you are not sick, they were mandatory while riding public transportation in Ulaanbaatar. Public officials and news broadcasters had even adopted to wearing masks through press conferences and news broadcasts.
J-D, faustusnotes also says “The CDC advice also notes (without drawing the correct conclusion) “…
J-D, where are your citation and reference requirements? faustusnotes has just stated – opinion – that the whole of cdc has conclusions wrong. And no one asks?
Why faustuanotes, is the cdc conclusion not the correct one. Some evidence, data, citation, reference? Share your ‘better than the cdc’ conclsion with data. Please.
faustusnotes posted, to up the ante, double down, “the appropriation of personal possessions.” is just a slur and now insinuating theft. I assume you be insinuating I’ll be a terrorist next week. How many people have you insinuated have playjereyzd faustusnotes?
I’ll ask again, as that is the standard you are trying to hold me to, specify and produce the posts you are accusing me of playjerism. I am looking forward to it now. The only way is through.
Thanks Ikonoclast for you kind words, but as you can see it is a big deal for me and a continual hole for faustusnotes. He’s digging, I’m hit with the dirt, he wants citations, evidence, etc but doesn’t produce it himself.
I am extremely disappointed others are not holding faustusnotes to the same standards re personal attacks, statememts against me, statements like “Japan and only Japan, contrary to popular myth among mask advocates” and the bravado of nixing masks on JQ’s blog and not engaging him. And seeing as faustusnotes thinks he is smarter than Taleb, JQ, 100+ researchers I posted – oh, and the whole CDC as well, I would have epected J-D or someonr by now to ask for proof, not “thanks,I appreciate it”.
C’est la vie, c’est la guerre, c’est la pomme de terre. (probably playjereyzd)
KT2, every piece of information anyone presents about “culture of mask wearing” is assertion without evidence, because there are no studies of which countries wear masks and which don’t. Here for example is an article on Mongolia’s coronavirus response in February which quotes an unnamed American as saying “more Mongolians are wearing masks”. This isn’t evidence, anymore than me saying only Japanese wore masks is evidence. If you want “facts” about mask-wearing culture, find some. Otherwise you could admit that the real reason Mongolia prevented a coronavirus outbreak was quarantine and testing. Or do you want to tell me that the success of Mongolia, Vietnam or South Korea was all masks and not everything else they did?
Similarly, when I criticize the conclusion of the CDC report I don’t need a citation because I’m criticizing logic. When you say “a bunch of countries used masks and case isolation” and then conclude “thus the masks worked” I don’t need a citation to point out your logic is wrong.
My comment about appropriation of personal possessions was nothing about you, but was instead a response to Ikonoclast’s suggestion that plagiarism is a capitalist concern. I was simply pointing out that there is nothing in communism or any other non-propertarian ideal that says it’s okay.
And finally, I did try engaging with JQ on this issue, I pointed out to him how he is wrong in the thread on masks and he told me to move further discussion of masks to the Sandpit. I’m sorry, but it’s not my fault I can’t engage JQ on this issue.
I have made very clear what the problem is regarding plagiarism (why won’t you spell this correctly, btw?) Use blockquote and proper hyperlinking, separate your opinion from the text you’re copying from elsewhere, so it is clear when I’m arguing with you and when I’m arguing with someone else’s opinion, and you can fix the problem. It’s a simple matter of etiquette.
faustusnotes, I’m busy. Not shy.
You said above using quotes to attribute words to me incorrectly;
“When you say “a bunch of countries used masks and case isolation” and then conclude “thus the masks worked” I don’t need a citation to point out your logic is wrong.” You’ve quoted ??? me?
I searched the word ‘bunch’ in this sandpit, prior sandpit, and masks thread. As you put words you attribite to me in quotes, either retract or prove I said “When you say “a bunch of countries used masks and case isolation” and then conclude “thus the masks worked” … can’t wait to NOT apologise. Bow too? See also 1a) below.
[Anyone who reads this: just google “”johnquiggin.com” “a bunch of countries used masks and case isolation” to prove faustusnotes is now making up quotes, attribiting them to me, please tell me what this is called in this context]
Tricky you – besides NOT having the decency to detail your assertions around plajerizm (fire, rape – where – somewhere. Mr plod – are you making false or alarmist accusations? I’ll charge the accuser.), you’ve now attribited words to me NOT EVEN I CAN FIND NOR REMEMBER WRITING. What is such called faustusnotes?
Please prove something, not do worse than you accuse me of faustusnotes. [googl it seems is the best playj checker. You may be assured I will be using it – on you]
My report on your woeful actions, and both our pitifully detailed nor nuanced exchanges regarding scenarios where masks are appropriate, makes me think you enjoy saying JQ (“I pointed out to him how he is wrong in the thread on masks ” June 28, 2020 at 1:21 pm [rofl] & Taleb (“Clowns like Taleb” -JUNE 17, 2020 AT 12:44 PM [rofl]) etc, are drawing incorrect conclusions or – yelling fire or rape and then saying – you prove it.
A bit like this paragraph copout of yours above “And finally, I did try engaging with JQ on this issue, I pointed out to him how he is wrong in the thread on masks and he told me to move further discussion of masks to the Sandpit. I’m sorry, but it’s not my fault I can’t engage JQ on this issue.”
” I’m sorry, but it’s not my fault I can’t engage JQ on this issue” BULLSHIZER faustusnotes. You may post whatever is under your superintelligent burning bush here. Go on! Don’t hide your planet beating intelligence. Pease. I would bet JQ would be thrilled to learn something. Me too.
Smarter than taleb. JQ is wrong and won’t engage, CDC, 200+ researchers names I dumped – and all you can do is denigrate, boast, accuse me, and blame others. And zero evidence or proof and making up words and writing them with quotes as if I’d said them. Lower than low.
I’ll be back. After school hols. Bet you can’t wait faustusnotes. You may redeem yourself anytime between now and then.
Imo, I think in your mind you are totally correct, yet you did say in one comment “But I don’t think it works. … It does not help!” . Which is it faustusnotes?
Has anyone (bet J-D has) noticed how we swap between relative & global? Crappy crappy crappy. My aplogies all for this crap.
Yet anytime you care to faustusnotes, you may;
– detail allegations and I wil respond properly as I take it very seriously, and
– post yout rebuttal here to JQ & Taleb. Rebut JQ & Taleb!!! (I’m still rofl’ing so much! )
If you manage it faustusnotes, I will,
– publicly apologise with gravitas and a worthy attitude,
– cermonially burn a (paper) mask, and…
– probably, late one arvo after a big day, write something on a blog, quoting your esteemed and soon to be well cited mask master work. Maybe with a missing quote – ON A BLOG, where the readers will not think they know better than JQ/Taleb whithout backing up boasts, and have looser parsing rules than you, and realise the commenter may be – looking after kids- never gone to uni – be dyslexic.
Please include in your master works in masks-
– electrolytics and nano devices and surfaces.
– Graphics for the brownian motion too please.
– Quadratic when graphing. Unless log or other specified.
– Prefer live data also with interactivity and personalisation with interoperability withndata api’s
– In explorable explanation format please. NO BLOCK TEXT – such poor etiquette!
Look above at your last comment here and realise something faustusnotes, (crickets & violins.)
1) your acusasion STILL lacks any references, citation, evidence etc. I’m patient. You?
1a) faustusnotes says sandpit para 2 June 20, 2020 at 1:35 pm …”You’re proposing to end a strategy we know works (lockdown)”…
Please tell me where.
I’d say I left out a comma or a quote mark, [Ed. get glasses. Write like a doctoral thesis]
Your parsing skills are set to “if not perfect, play plaj card”. So as I would certainly not accuse you of making stuff up, please show me / us where I called for ending lockdowns –
1c) oh and – you’d better define what you call a lockdown. We wouldn’t want our commets to be poorly defined and global.
2) same post as refereced above faustusnotes you say “But I don’t think it works.” … “It does not help!”
The quality of the comments, complete lack of specificity, nor scenarios or circumstamces *in the masks thread* makes it hardly worthwhile replying to. But you did. And did the globally non specific rhetoric too.
4) Taleb hasnt responded – yet – just kidding!
5) Clue: most scientific work I will cite (such fun) will predominately show… wait wait…
6) my overview and response will take the form of the CCBYNC Open access licenced great paper:- “We jumped from planes without [masks] parachutes (and lived to tell the tale)”.
Objective To determine if using a parachute prevents death or major traumatic injury when jumping from an aircraft.
Design Randomized controlled trial.
Setting Private or commercial aircraft between September 2017 and August 2018.
Participants 92 aircraft passengers aged 18 and over were screened for participation. 23 agreed to be enrolled and were randomized.
Intervention Jumping from an aircraft (airplane or helicopter) with a parachute versus an empty backpack (unblinded).
Main outcome measures Composite of death or major traumatic injury (defined by an Injury Severity Score over 15) upon impact with the ground measured immediately after landing.
Results Parachute use did not significantly reduce death or major injury (0% for parachute v 0% for control; P>0.9). This finding was consistent across multiple subgroups. Compared with individuals screened but not enrolled, participants included in the study were on aircraft at significantly lower altitude (mean of 0.6 m for participants v mean of 9146 m for non-participants; P<0.001) and lower velocity (mean of 0 km/h v mean of 800 km/h; P<0.001).
Conclusions Parachute use did not reduce death or major traumatic injury when jumping from aircraft in the first randomized evaluation of this intervention. However, the trial was only able to enroll participants on small stationary aircraft on the ground, suggesting cautious extrapolation to high altitude jumps. When beliefs regarding the effectiveness of an intervention exist in the community, randomized trials might selectively enroll individuals with a lower perceived likelihood of benefit, thus diminishing the applicability of the results to clinical practice."
Look Before You Leap
Parachute use to prevent death and major trauma when jumping from aircraft: randomized controlled trial
BMJ 2018; 363 doi:https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.k5094
(Published 13 December 2018)
Cite this as:
We jumped from planes without parachutes (and lived to tell the tale)
This article has a correction. Please see:Parachute use to prevent death and major trauma when jumping from aircraft: randomized controlled trial – December 18, 2018
Robert W Yeh, associate professor1, Linda R Valsdottir, research coordinator1, Michael W Yeh, professor2, Changyu Shen, director1, Daniel B Kramer, assistant professor1, Jordan B Strom, instructor1, Eric A Secemsky, instructor1, Joanne L Healy, administrative manager1, Robert M Domeier, expert skydiver and clinical instructor3, Dhruv S Kazi, associate director1, Brahmajee K Nallamothu, professor4 on behalf of the PARACHUTE Investigators
Correspondence to: R W Yeh email@example.com (or @rwyeh on Twitter)
Accepted 22 November 2018
Oh, by the way faustusnotes, does this pass your plaejur filter please. Any tips appreciated. And you didn't indent or reference words you say I said. "Quelle horreur"!, slipping to the standards of KT2! "that's terrible, how horrible, isn't that awful" -Wiktionary – except for the exclamation mark and words outside quotes, faustusnotes is unable or unwilling to parse. Shall I attribute all gaelic / french and other linguistics? How far back please?
faustusnotes said : "I’m sorry, but it’s not my fault I can’t engage JQ on this issue". And I still am unable to stop rolf'ing. Publish faustusnotes or retract. The world will be a better and more ordered place.
R.O.F.L. at your 'comments' faustusnotes. You're the only one left in the hole, and you are spraying me with dirt! …