A new sandpit for long side discussions, conspiracy theories, idees fixes and so on.

To be clear, the sandpit is for regular commenters to pursue points that distract from regular discussion, including conspiracy-theoretic takes on the issues at hand. It’s not meant as a forum for visiting conspiracy theorists, or trolls posing as such.

221 thoughts on “Sandpit

  1. Keep looking I say. I got it the first time. Where the centre of the explosion was, and looking at the symmetrical shape of the separate explosion and where this implies the epicentre is. Matching that with the crater.

    I think people only miss what they are looking at, because their mind is repelled by the implications.

    I still can’t tell from looking at a video whether it shows fertiliser burning or not, and I still can’t tell whether it shows a nuclear explosion or not, because I don’t know how one looks different from the other. If you do know how to tell the difference and are not explaining it, it seems as if you are deliberately hiding the information from me, which seems odd. I can’t explain that at all.

  2. “With food insecurity already prevalent because of the increase in food prices, the need for increased access to food remains in the wake of the explosion, which destroyed Lebanon’s primary grain silo.”

    Yes it was the perfect leverage point in the entire nation to cripple Lebanon, and therefore the confidence that Hezbollah might have had to retaliate agains Israeli terrorism. So out of every square inch of Lebanon, the Israeli leadership chose that place which would do the most harm. Even getting aid to Beirut will be horribly complicated now. All the silos down. All the stored wheat gone.

    As coincidence theory demands, the Prime Minister of Israel has been bitching and moaning about this area, pretending it was bristling with missile production and missile storage facilities and all that. This is so that he’s got that fallback position that the attack wasn’t about crippling the country, but instead was targeted towards munitions factories.

    Complete nonsense. Not even a plausible story. But the Likudniks are great at keeping a straight face with their excuses. They were busted using white phosphorous on the small children. When pushed for an answer to such incredible barbarism at quora, the excuse was that they wanted to light up the battlefield in order that civilians lives be spared. Riiiiiigggghhhhtttt. You people heard of lights?

    So you know. The excuses just get old after awhile.

    Coincidence theory, which is the necessary opponent of the idea that people plan, is very reminiscent of the Douglas Adams concept of the Infinite improbability drive. A great plot device. But the Likud ascendancy seem to have taken the concept and run with it.

  3. KT2,

    There are not a lot of options with conspiracy theorists;

    (a) Facts are useless. They are impervious to facts.
    (b) Tolerance is useless. They abuse tolerance.
    (c) Silence is useless. They spam sites.
    (d) Abandoning a site gives them the entire forum.

    Topics can be shut down but the only viable option is to ban fact-impervious conspiracy theorists. J.Q. has tried that and certain sock-puppets keep coming back. That may be an administration problem or a technical problem, I am not sure.

    I’ve also noticed the need for site owners to be vigilant and firm. If one runs a site, one ought to read every post. Out of self-protection one will then ban people who write only gibberish and promptly close down threads gone haywire.

    The only way we can all stop “providing dataset and training for deep fakes” is to leave the internet. Hard as it might be to believe from reading this site, I am overall “leaving the internet” progressively and over time. My posts on other sites (economics, political theory, computer game theory, ecology) have all declined. That’s not from any clear overt decision but simply from a gathering feeling that it’s all pointless and hopeless. The internet has been co-opted by bad actors, state, corporate and individual. The general enemy now is global interconnection itself. There is no need to campaign against this interconnection. It’s self-limiting and self-destroying. The collapse process has already begun.

  4. Facts Ikon? You have some facts for me? The country was founded on terrorism. Thats a fact. If you are suggesting they changed this policy; what month was that again? The Israelis themselves founded Hamas in the early 80’s. Thats a fact too. If you think they lost all influence over the group they had created, what month was that again?

    Do you know the other area within Lebanon that the Prime Minister was bitching about? Their airport. Thats a fact. He’s claiming that all kinds of what we would call defence materiel is right next to the airport. So he was complaining about the area where they had their most important port and most of their grain and now its all destroyed. Thats a fact. We have missile footage that can be seen in the negative which has not yet been debunked. Thats a fact. And he was also bitching and moaning about defence materiel next to the airport. So I think he wanted to destroy their most important infrastructure. Thats an interpretation.

    The idea that you can rule out conspiracy in world affairs is a logic fail. Thats a fact. Get over it. The Israelis were committing terrorist bombing on Syria, and the West bank the day before. Thats a fact.

  5. There’s another thing about this. Supposing you are right. And the Israelis would sometimes be accused of things they are not actually guilty of …. Is that some massive cosmic tragedy given their known behaviour? I mean obviously if you are a hardened criminal and you are murdering your neighbours (Lebanese, Syrian, Iraqis and Iranians) all the time, occasionally you will be accused of doing some things that you aren’t actually guilty of. Thats hardly some sort of crisis. Thats just normal.

    It isn’t happening this time. But you expect it to happen a great deal.

  6. There’s a bad gangster in a city. He eventually ends up being blamed for everything including accidents and “acts of God”. Thus is born the conspiracy myth of the omnipotent villain.

  7. Right. Or the gangster ends up making God the patsy. Making God the Oswald. You go from that to blaming Mossad for stealing your shoe. Mossad sends a message by stealing a shoe and leaving the other one there. Which would be extremely scary and then the Prime Minister himself sneers at the accusation.

    But if you have people who shoot unarmed kids from the safe side of a fence, and the kids aren’t even carrying wire cutters or anything, then you can hardly get them off the hook for stealing a shoe just to put mental pressure on someone. Breaking and entering and sending a message. For my part if I wanted these people in the house I’d buy a television. Thats a perfectly plausible accusation for a Hamas leader to make, given the people we are dealing with.

    So the idea is to do what you can to break down this code of silence. This criticism omertà against these primitive Likud savages.

  8. … Complete nonsense. Not even a plausible story. …

    If you are deliberately concealing information, nothing you write can be relied on.

  9. Putting those sorts of factories, or worse, long-time storage facilities right next to your airport or most important wharf is implausible from a logistics perspective. If the Israelis found such a thing it would be in their interests to maintain the inefficiency. Its like if you have some of the young folks dumping pallets just outside the factory lift. It creates a choke point. So where you have your wharf its all short-term storage and unloading facilities. Or transport facilities. Better still you could unload the pallets at the wharf and immediately take them to an outer suburb for unloading and just free up as much space around the wharf so as not to have choke points. Like if you have Sydney wharf you can load the gear on trucks, take them out during the night to a place like Prestons, and have specialist unloading outfits unload them there. Such is the space requirement necessary so close to a major port.

    Now supposing we had our logistics all wrong and we had all these weapons up near the Darwin Port (scandalously now controlled by our strategic competitor). Do we expect the Indonesian Prime Minister to be bitching and moaning about the situation? No only Israel acts in this whining fashion. But Hezbollah knows where the terrorists are. So they will position their rockets and factories accordingly. Not all up at the Israeli border, but their weapons will be positioned with the terrorist border, and defence in depth in mind. They won’t have their gear clogging up the wharf or creating logistical problems at the airport. So when the Prime Minister or some other Yahoo gets up and is moaning about this or that at first you think “What is he complaining about now….” But your next thought should be that he is planning to do something really really awful.

  10. “Unload the pallets at the wharf..” I meant to say unload the CONTAINERS at the wharf. Logistically the best thing to do is just to get the containers away from the wharf and sort them out in a place where you have more land to work with. I remember unloading pallets near Melbourne wharf back in the day. That may still happen after a fashion. But competitor companies can set up at the fringes of town and the containers be sent straight there, which I take to be the better arrangement. No way to you want long-term stockpiling anywhere near the premium space.

    So why would some Yahoo complain about weapons factories if they were in the wrong area? Rather than try and be a good neighbour? If he’s got something to fear it would be missiles close to the border. They pretend to poo soil their pants with fear when they are a major nuclear power. So he must have decided its just easier to cripple their neighbour entirely.

    If you listen to this fellow his words ought to hang him. His whining is incomprehensible, without excuse-making for taking down the logistics of the country in mind.

  11. Thanks Ikon. As per usual you provide clear and intelligent reasoning.

    I like the sandpit analogy allowing castles to be built both on sand -rwall yet ephemeral, and in sky, allows for us kids to throw a bit, and wow, sandstorms too.

    This thread does need to be studied and handed to Beirut residents as a history & added weight for future residents to seehiw ‘some’ react.

    I still think your talents are required elsewhere.

    Over at clubtroppo I haave notice a bot posting a 1 or 2 sentence highly relevant comment. Then the ‘more here’ come on line.

    One day we will be talking to a bot with Turing like powers. Soon.


  12. “Thanks Ikon. As per usual you provide clear and intelligent reasoning.”

    Your wish to play down Israeli nuclear terrorism is well noted.

    But great post by ikon on the other thread. For my part I like three layers of management. Four as an absolute maximum. Good work on what causes the rate of profit in an economy has already been done. George Reisman’s work on this is excellent. So hold your nose about having to read a libertarian and appreciate the technical excellence. More offensive than high profits are the obscene salaries these bludgers are paying themselves.

    I think the changes Peter Reith brought need to be reversed and the reversal sunsetted. I understand what he was trying to do but we need a much sleeker business sector, and until we get that we should have strong unions. Even if they cause a bit of trouble. And also until we get a sleeker more competitive business environment I think the government should find a way to lean on businesses to push these salaries down. Not on the first layer. Not on the 2nd layer. But above that the salaries tend to be too high and it must have something to do with what the Nitzan/Bichler research project has to say about power.

    Its incredible that the solution to every business challenge is now to chisel the deal of the workers. No creativity any more. Just chisel the worker and try and get the bonus. In a business with six layers of management you could probably wipe out the top three layers, split up the business into smaller units, sort out whose running things, and everything would likely go ahead just fine. The idea of the workers taking over the factories was impractical extremism. Absolutism where you get a few good ideas and push them way further than they could rightly go. But somewhere in there there is some sort of sensible middle ground. Maybe the top two layers could be more reasonable. One doesn’t want to repeat the error of being too extreme.

  13. If we take prudent action can we aviod the wurst? If some Aliens from Mars sent us a message that said if you take prudent action now you can avoid the worst aspects of global warming, would they be telling us the truth? Or, would they be telling us a polite lie designed not to rob us of hope during our death throws?
    Then what about the second worst horror? If the worst is extinction, what would the second worst be?
    If prudent action can avoid the worst would it take extreme action to avoid the second worst?
    Here is a an example of the difference between prudent action and extreme action. You are driving on top of a glacier racing towards a cliff in Selma and Louise’s car. A prudent action would be to step hard on the breaks. An extreme action would be to set off an explosive device in the car which will definately seriously injure you when it explodes and have a 65% chance of killing you.

  14. Veterans today have all the information on the Israeli missile strike. They say that they used two missiles. A Gabriel anti ship missile. The second explosion was caused by Israeli Delilah missile from F16 they say. They say it had a nuclear warhead with a 6 kilotonne payload. I find this very surprising actually. Because I would have thought you’d have to have divers in and plant the bomb deep in the water and under the wharf to avoid a flash and excessive radiation. You could aim the missile there but that sounds like pretty fancy aiming. By the shape of the crater you would think it was aimed deep and just a couple of metres from the wharf. Others speak with great assurance about the new model weapons not necessarily having the flash. Doesn’t sound right to me but they will lay out exquisite detail with implied confidence. Veterans today has great contributors but the boss is a big blowhard. I wouldn’t have thought he’d get something like this completely wrong.

    In happier news people are saying that Ivermectin is even more powerful than HCQ for killing the coronavirus. This one has slipped past the worldwide campaign of treatment denial so the idea is to get hold of some before the authorities start demonising and banning it. Right now they are just giving it the silent treatment.

    You would have easily been able to get a hold of HCQ a year ago prior to the terrorist attack. But now you’d have to be practicing witchcraft. They will try to stop us from using Ivermectin but they won’t be able to do it with the strength and vigour with which they campaigned against HCQ. That campaign was baked into the cake. An integral part of the operation. So they risk giving the game away if they go too far with this one.

  15. Pretty fancy excuse-making from Rachel Lance at Wired. She didn’t mention the missiles. Thats a big oversight. Is she not going to take into account the phase change of water in the speed of the dome expansion? Doesn’t count for anything in her view.

    Actually we are still lacking confirmation that there was any real fertiliser present. Veterans Today says the bogus paperwork is related to three countries that don’t produce the fertiliser. So you know. Sounds like a long-run Mossad operation starting from back in the day when almost no-one realised they were using nuclear weapons ruthlessly in the field. Sooner or later their Jedi-Night-like powers, of making us not see what is so clearly in front of us, had to fade. People were prepared this time around because we already had the denial when it came to other venues (Bali, Homs, Beirut 83 and others).

  16. “Andrew Strang – thanks.”

    Just imagine the malicious boneheaded reality-denying mind that this response comes from. Always wanting to blame someone else. Leo Frank all over again.

    Now it seems there was never any ammonium nitrate in the first place. And there aren’t that many factories in the world that make ammonium nitrate. So our rabbinical brothers and sisters have to match the make-believe load of ammonium nitrate, with the factory that they are going to pretend the cargo came from.

    This will be the real dog-ate-my-homework story of the next few months, as the Sister Sledge start getting out there trying to threaten everyone. During that time we will barely notice the children they shoot in the head.

  17. There is a better use of solar power than the grid. Audi and some other crowd have sussed out a way to make synthetic diesel with solar power. They are calling it blue crude diesel. There is no future without the diesel engine. Diesel does all the heavy lifting in the economy and its going to stay that way for hundreds of years. If we are lucky. If we have the solar going into something like this we can delay having to worry about storage for the grid for a long time. Because synthetic diesel can be made with intermittent energy. Building up storage for the grid is a decades long process and one we should only attempt with all budgets in surplus.

    Personally I think the future lies in mass production of synthetic diesel assisted by thorium nuclear as the core energy process. And then have diesel generators for local electricity. At the moment our grid is extremely dangerous. It could be taken out by the Police Force of Madagascar getting here undercover. From that point of view our defence is a joke. If power were created locally by diesel we might be able to expel an invader and not face grave depopulation.

    Think if the Israelis took out our electricity production in the Hunter Valley? We could see them do it on live television and yet we’d all be blaming each other. Or ourselves. Everyone could be pointing their fingers at themselves and saying “Its my fault” rather than believe what they had seen on the video. The point is not to blame Netanyahu or any other Yahoo. The point is that its unacceptable that we have centralised our grid this much in the first place.

    So far the big money has gone into diesel electricity generators to mitigate the problems that intermittent energy has brought to the grid. You must understand I am happy for all the energy that these methods bring. Every joule counts. But we didn’t need to confuse the energy source with its appropriate niche. Synthetic diesel production may be a way out of this difficulty. But for national security purposes its time to start spreading these diesel generators out and let some towns generate their electricity locally.

    I think Paul Dibb is a serious intellectual and a national asset. But these white papers have never gone far enough.

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