Monday Message Board

Back again with another Monday Message Board.

Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. If you would like to receive my (hopefully) regular email news, please sign up using the following link.


http://eepurl.com/dAv6sX You can also follow me on Twitter @JohnQuiggin, at my Facebook public page   and at my Economics in Two Lessons page

22 thoughts on “Monday Message Board

  1. McKinsey’s – 
    “Net-Zero By 2050 Needs $9.2 Trillion Annual Investment”

    28yrs x $9.2Tn = $257Tn. 
    A bargin. 

    Fot time to attend webinar JQ – Tue, Feb 1, 2022 11:00 AM EST (Wed, Feb 2, 2022 3:00 AM AEDT) link below. 

    Keen on yours JQ, and others take on McKinsey’s – “Net-Zero By 2050 Needs $9.2 Trillion Annual Investment”. 

    ^1. – “Net-Zero By 2050 Needs $9.2 Trillion Annual Investment”
    By Tsvetana Paraskova at oilprice.com
    ● Including link to (Geoff & Svante)
    “More Crude to Hit Oil Market Soon”
    “A series of separate events is set to increase global oil inventories at a time when Brent crude is flirting with $90 oil. Will it come before oil reaches $100?”
    youtube com/watch?v=1vMgzTzDkaA

    ^2. – “McKinsey: Net-Zero By 2050 Needs $9.2 Trillion Annual Investment
    by Yves Smith

    ^3. – McKinsey webinar.
    Join masters of McKinsey (universe) and luminaries Mark Carney etc.

    ^4.- Links for McKinsey article, summary & full report.

    ^5. (Ikon you’ll like this one imo);  Includes debt jubilee (my fave) & unconditional cash transfers and a philosophic bent.

    “Justice at the Necessary Scale”​ 
    An Interview with Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò.
    *

    I’m with Yves Smith… Not read full report (^2.) and agree (due to priors & bias) that McKinsey “attempts to preserve present lifestyles”.
    And “… net zero will require 1/10th of world GDP” which may stop adoption if energy prices rise too much, ‘we’ may say, slow down the transition due to hip pocket pain.
    *

    ^1.
    “Net-Zero By 2050 Needs $9.2 Trillion Annual Investment
    By Tsvetana Paraskova – Jan 27, 2022, 5:00 PM CST

    “McKinsey: Net-Zero transition will cost $9.2 trillion in annual investment till 2050This annual average includes investment in the energy, mobility, industry, buildings, agriculture, and forestry and other land-use sectors McKinsey: The impact of the energy transition will be uneven across countries and sectors”…

    https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/Net-Zero-By-2050-Needs-92-Trillion-Annual-Investment.html
    *

    ^2.
    “McKinsey: Net-Zero By 2050 Needs $9.2 Trillion Annual Investment
    Posted on January 28, 2022 by Yves Smith

    “Yves here. To put the McKinsey energy transition estimate in the headline in context, world GDP for 2021 according to Statista’s estimate is $94.5 trillion. Reporting that net zero will require 1/10th of world GDP starting now is tantamount to saying “Na ga happen”.

    “I will confess to not having read the underlying McKinsey document, largely due to lacking the subject matter expertise to catch questionable assumptions. However, it isn’t hard to guess that the McKinsey base case attempts to preserve present lifestyles and hence relies far more on deployment of new energy infrastructure….which takes time to get in place and will rely heavily on current largely dirty sources to build…than on business and lifestyle changes to curb energy use.”…

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/01/mckinsey-net-zero-by-2050-needs-9-2-trillion-annual-investment.html
    *

    ^3.
    McKinsey webinar.
    Join masters of (the universe) McKinsey and luminaries incuding;
    – Mark Carney
    Finance Adviser to the Prime Minister for COP 26 and UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance
    – Rajiv J. Shah
    President
    The Rockefeller Foundation

    McKinsey webinar:
    “The net-zero transition: What it would cost, what it could bring”

    Tue, Feb 1, 2022 11:00 AM EST (Wed, Feb 2, 2022 3:00 AM AEDT) 
    https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1523452&tp_key=2511d0ac53&sti=dotcom
    *

    ^4.
    McKinsey article, summary & full report.

    “The economic transformation: What would change in the net-zero transition
    January 25, 2022 | Article

    “A net-zero transition would entail a significant and often front-loaded shift in demand, capital allocation, costs, and jobs.

    Special Report
    “The net-zero transition: What it would cost, what it could bring

    [ Links for download ]
    ♢ Full Report (224 pages)
    ♢ Executive Summary (64 pages)

    “Global decarbonization will be possible only if nine system-level requirements are met, encompassing “…

    https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/the-economic-transformation-what-would-change-in-the-net-zero-transition
    *

    ^5.
    Debt jubilee & unconditional cash transfers.

    “Justice at the Necessary Scale”​
    An Interview with Olúfẹ́mi Táíwò.

    “Broadly, I would say that climate justice is going to require widespread debt cancellation, especially the debt of developing countries. It’s going to require individual, unconditional cash transfers to the people most marginalized and oppressed by the systems of racial injustice that created our present world — Indigenous peoples, the descendants of the enslaved — and also to the countries and communities most ravaged by that same history: the Global South.”

    https://www.thedriftmag.com/justice-at-the-necessary-scale/

    Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò
    “​Assistant Professor of Philosophy at Georgetown University.

    PhD at University of California, Los Angeles.  
    BAs in Philosophy and Political Science at Indiana University”
    http://www.olufemiotaiwo.com/

    Book “Reconsidering Reparations
    By Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò

    Book “Philosophy of Race”
    – Ties reparations for slavery and colonialism to the climate crisis
    – Presents a compelling philosophical case for reparations for slavery
    – Integrates a global history of racial injustice into a philosophical framework of colonialism and racism
    https://global.oup.com/academic/product/reconsidering-reparations-9780197508893

    Publication list including;
    “From moral hazard to risk-response feedback”
    J Jebari, OO Táíwò, TM Andrews, V Aquila, B Beckage, M Belaia, …
    Climate Risk Management 33, 100324, 2021
    https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=dqT4eqUAAAAJ
    *

    Happy reading.

  2. JQ says something along the lines of Europe’s problem was austerity, not Labor markets.
    *

    “Me on Tyler on Bryan on Labor
    By Robin Hanson

    “Bryan Caplan has a new book, Labor Econ Versus the World, a collection of his blog posts on the topic. Tyler Cowen says that while “I agree with a great deal of what is in this book, … let’s focus on where we differ”:

    https://www.overcomingbias.com/2022/01/me-on-tyler-on-bryan-on-labor.html
    *

    “Labor Econ Versus the World: Essays on the World’s Greatest Market
    By: Bryan Caplan

    “I spent weeks reviewing the several thousand essays I’ve written since 2005, organizing them all by theme.  Labor Econ Versus the World collects my top pieces on the world of work, broken down into four categories. 
    – “Laissez-Faire and Labor” analyzes the sorry effects of labor market regulation for workers and the rest of the economy. 
    – “Open Borders” turns to the vast yet neglected gains of letting everyone on Earth work in whatever country they please. 
    – “Education Without Romance” debunks the prevailing human capital model of education in favor of the signaling heresy. 
    – “The Search for Success” shows how you can use the insights of labor economics to avoid poverty, advance your career, marry well, and optimize your parenting.”…

    https://www.econlib.org/labor-econ-versus-the-world-essays-on-the-worlds-greatest-market/
    *

    “I Win My European Unemployment Bet
    By: Bryan Caplan

    ” That said, I heartily commend Quiggin for actually making our bet.  He towers above all of the apologists for European labor market regulation who refuse to put their money where their mouths are.”…
    https://www.econlib.org/i-win-my-european-unemployment-bet/
    *

    “Betting with Bryan Caplan
    by JOHN QUIGGIN
    MAY 25, 2009

    “Bryan Caplan responds to the data on US and EU-15 unemployment by offering a bet.”
    ….
    https://crookedtimber.org/2009/05/25/betting-with-bryan-caplan/

    “Bet with Bryan Caplan
    https://johnquiggin.com/2009/05/28/bet-with-bryan-caplan/
    *

    “Libertarians’ scary new star: Meet Bryan Caplan, the right’s next “great” philosopher

    “Ever hear of Bryan Caplan? Here’s why he could turn out to be one of the most significant thinkers of our time

    By MICHAEL LIND
    PUBLISHED MAY 10, 2014
    ….
    “Caplanism also frees libertarian scholars like Caplan himself from being embarrassed about the fact that almost all of them are paid, directly or indirectly, by a handful of angry, arrogant rich guys who fund anti-government propaganda because they think they are overtaxed. Caplanism allows the subsidized libertarian intelligentsia to declare, “Yes, we are indeed spokesmen for plutocracy — and a good thing, too, because a plutocratic democracy is the only kind of democracy worth having!”

    “For all of these reasons, I believe that Bryan Caplan deserves to be studied as one of the most representative thinkers of our money-dominated era. Our squalid age of plutocratic democracy has found a thinker worthy of it.”

    https://www.salon.com/2014/05/10/libertarians_scary_new_star_meet_bryan_caplan_the_rights_next_great_philosopher/
    *

    …”Lind has examined and defended the tradition of American democratic nationalism associated with Alexander Hamilton in a series of books, including The Next American Nation (1995), Hamilton’s Republic (1997),What Lincoln Believed (2004) and Land of Promise: An Economic History of the United States (2012).”… https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Lind

  3. Tweeted earlier this morning by biology and biostatistics professor Tom Wenseleers (including a graph of new confirmed SARS-CoV2 cases per day by variant in South Africa):

    Seems that the second Omicron subvariant BA.2 may soon be about to cause cases to start rising again in South Africa… Or at least to stop the decline in new infections. Shows how fast immunity wanes & evolution can catch up.

    Groundhog day?

  4. Tom Wenseleers has dropped the claim that this graph in particular “Shows how fast immunity wanes…”

    Fair enough, but immunity IS waning fast. There are plenty of graphs and tables to show that. And the very fact that boosters are being pushed at 3 months says it all. We’ve been sold a furphy, a lie. It is not possible to simply vaccinate our way out of this pandemic with the current vaccines. It is not possible to live sustainably, healthily or happily with COVID-19 as an endless pandemic. Suppression is the only viable strategy.

    “Guys! When I write about frontlines, I don’t do it to push for empathy towards me or HCWs. All i want is for you to understand YOU HAVE NO HEALTHCARE NOW in this country. Its not about feeling sorry for us. Its about all of you having NO ACCESS TO CARE NOW.” – Dr. Natalia, Twitter.

    I presume Dr. Natalia is in the UK or US. Australia will soon look like those countries. That is, an utter mess.

    This Ian Ricksecker thread explains why everyone should be afraid of COVID-19. The minimization of it has led us in to a disaster which will reverberate for decades in terms of long term sequela and probably decades of new infections as well.

  5. Let’s make sure “Australia will soon look like those countries. That is, an utter mess.”, Ikon.

    ^2. “Most pharmaceutical companies actually spend more on marketing than on r&d, so high drug prices aren’t really subsidizing new meds. They’re subsidizing Fox and CNN waging the culture war.”…

    ^1. “Americans pay far more for private healthcare already, and that universal care would represent trillions in savings.” …

    Trillions? Can’t find a time frame. But huuuge savings. Advertising drugs & treatments a definite no no..
    *

    ^1.
    Cory Doctorow as usual, informative text and links on…

    “California’s chance for universal health care (permalink)

    “”American exceptionalism” usually refers to Americans letting themselves off the hook for the sins they condemn in others (mass incarceration, death penalty, voter suppression, book burning, etc). But there’s another kind of implicit exceptionalism, practiced by elites in service to the status quo: the belief that Americans are exceptionally stupid

    “Nowhere is this negative exceptionalism more obvious than in American health-care debates, where the cost of providing universal healthcare is presented as a bill that Americans cannot afford, without mentioning that Americans pay far more for private healthcare already, and that universal care would represent trillions in savings.

    “Here’s how it will be funded: a 2.3% tax on companies making $2m/year or more; a 1.25% payroll tax on companies with 50+ employees, and a 1% tax bump for individuals earning $49.9K-$149,509/year. Collectively, this will bring in the $314b needed to fund CalCare for every Californian.”…

    https://pluralistic.net/2022/01/28/american-exceptionalism/#ab-1400
    *

    ^2.
    And Scott Alexander with some excellent discussion and insightful comments re (mainly) US healthcare system…

    Commenters have unusual names yet are usually insiders or domain literate. IE smarter and more informed & learned than I. Links at astral codex ten are presented as plain text – try clicking text…
    *

    “Highlights From The Comments On Health Care Systems

    – Section I: Collection of comments on US health care
    – Section II: Drug pricing, and does the US subsidize the rest of the world?
    – Section III: Why are health economics so unlike other economics?
    – Section IV: Giant pile of comments by readers who live in different countries explaining their own countries’ health systems, and their experiences with them.

    “GummyBearDoc writes:
    …” While rich people in the US do better than average people in other rich countries with breast cancer, RICH children in the US have outcomes worse than AVERAGE citizens in 11/12 of this group of rich countries. “…

    “But Peak Oil’s Tail writes:
    “One huge difference between healthcare in the US and elsewhere is advertising. The US has a whole industry dedicated to marketing drugs and medical services directly to patients, which just doesn’t exist in most other countries.

    “I think this explains a big part of the cost disease. Ads for drugs are particularly common on daytime TV or cable news, I guess because they’re watched by elderly people who tend to be sick and have Medicare. Most pharmaceutical companies actually spend more on marketing than on r&d, so high drug prices aren’t really subsidizing new meds. They’re subsidizing Fox and CNN waging the culture war.”…
    https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-health

  6. Published recently at the Climate Code Red blog were a series of posts by David Spratt on climate tipping points:

    1. Have tipping points already been passed for critical climate systems? (1) The basics, Jan 18

    2. Have tipping points already been passed for critical climate systems? (2) West Antarctica and the “doomsday” glacier, Jan 20

    3. Have tipping points already been passed for critical climate systems? (3) Greenland and the Arctic: Abrupt change, Jan 24

    4. Have tipping points already been passed for critical climate systems? (4) Forests and the Amazon: A faltering carbon sink, Jan 26

    5. Have tipping points already been passed for critical climate systems? (5) Coral Reefs: A death spiral, Jan 28

    6. Have tipping points already been passed for critical climate systems? (6) Permafrost: Beyond the models, Jan 31

    There’s one more in the series to go. http://www.climatecodered.org/

  7. We now have infinite monkeys – sort of. We do not need to get Shakespeare, just a narrow set trained on images or any ‘x’ humans recognise, to extend potential for surprise or novel “thing X”.

    A bit of a worry – people whi do not exist.

    Potentially very useful – drugs which do not exist.

    How about – Economic models which do not exist?

    Here is a paper on ” Machine Learning Methods in Drug Discovery”
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7696134/

    And here it is at a website. With robots, lab and chemists, we are all drug / virus / whatever Columbus capable of sailing into known unknowns.

    I’m liking regulatiin more and mire.

    “This X does not exist”. A GAN – Gerneral Adversarial Network – is now so easy and, trained by all our free data exhaust, just about anything may be generated. Seems a toy now. But:- drug discovery.

    “Drug discovery?
    “This Chemical Does Not Exist”
    “Who said drug discovery is hard? Just refresh until you find the right chemical. In all seriousness, the fact that this renders a 3D model with the correct bond pairings is impressive.”
    https://thisxdoesnotexist.com/
    *

    “Infinite monkey theorem”
    ..
    “To put it another way, for a one in a trillion chance of success, there would need to be 10 [to the piwer of] 360,641 observable universes made of protonic monkeys.[g]”
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem

  8. I think the ABC’s By business reporter Gareth Hutchens is asking people like you JQ, for explanations and answers.

    “Will 2022-22 be like “when “stagflation” hit Australia’s economy”?

    – “Hopefully, economists can answer some of them in coming months”.
    *

    “How is the unemployment rate falling to such low levels? Is this normal?

    “In fact, you have to go back to the summer of 1974/75, to the moment when the low unemployment rates from the old “Keynesian” regime finally broke free from their moorings.

    “That was the period when “stagflation” hit Australia’s economy.

    “The unemployment rate had averaged less than 2 per cent for three decades before then, but that summer it jumped to 4.6 per cent, never to return.
    ….
    “Hopefully, economists can answer some of them in coming months.

    “Firstly, we’ve been told for years that the economy couldn’t sustain unemployment rates at such low levels, so was that true?

    “Secondly, what role has our closed international border played in helping the unemployment rate get so low so quickly?

    “And a related question, will the unemployment rate remain at such low levels when international travel and labour movements eventually return, or will it have to rise?

    “And thirdly, if the RBA thinks wages growth will still only be “gradual” when the unemployment rate pushes down towards 3.75 per cent, what does that say about employers’ bargaining power these days?

    “You’d assume that exceptionally low unemployment should see exceptionally robust wages growth, if things worked as the textbooks suggested.”

    https://abc.net.au/news/2022-02-02/how-is-the-unemployment-rate-falling-to-such-low-levels/100796028

  9. I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest that one of the outcomes of the pandemic has been a widening of the opportunities for people who were previously shut out of the employment market.

    It’s only based on anecdotes and observations, so it might not be wide spread, but with international students and other migration being reduced there has been a lot of adhoc ads asking for staff and I wonder if this has encouraged some people previously discouraged from seeking work to try their luck. When there is a large pool of available people then employers start getting picky about attributes that aren’t strictly necessary for the job – such as appearance, age, experience in a job that can be easily taught, surname etc. I imagine a lot of people give up looking if they get too many knockbacks especially if they are being disadvantaged by one of the above.

    I’m not arguing against migration or international students, but I definitely think more should be done to encourage opportunities for marginalised people to get work if they want it. Somehow this socially beneficial outcome seems to be off the agenda in favour of humiliating the unemployed for societies amusement. If that isn’t the objective then it can only be caused by mismanagement and incompetence – which unfortunately seems to be the most likely cause.

  10. Suburbanite, the economic consequences of the pandemic have shown that modern immigrant and visa labor coming into Australia have been depressing employment opportunities for persons already in Australia. In other words, immigrant and visa labor have had the impact of raising unemployment and depressing wages in Australia. This applies to contemporary Australia, as I emphasize. It would not necessarily everywhere everywhere or at all times, particularly when a country has or has had a genuine labor shortage.

    This clearly illustrates that modern Australia has not had a genuine labor shortage but rather an industrial relations system where employers have not wanted to pay for training workers or pay proper living wages to the workers. Rather, the employers have preferred to use already trained labor from abroad and thus a form of global labor arbitrage against workers born in Australia or brought in in earlier waves of immigration when we might have had a genuine labor shortage. The goal clearly has been to depress wages and discipline labor to create a compliant workforce with low demands for wages and conditions.

    It is interesting to note the skills drain and brain drain that Australia (and other nations which do this) place on often less developed nations by pirating their skilled workers in this manner. A good “global citizen” (meaning a developed nation state in this case) would take responsibility for training its own workforce properly and not drain other nations of their better workers in this manner. It’s just another aspect of late stage capitalist neoimperialism. It’s a small part of much bigger picture.

    https://monthlyreview.org/2021/05/01/five-characteristics-of-neoimperialism/

  11. Suburbanite says FEBRUARY 2, 2022 AT 2:03 PM:
    I’m not arguing against migration or international students
    Yes, let’s keep migration at the sustainable pre Keating-Howard earlier long term average, and international students, but both after wide ranging reform.

  12. Ikonoclast, It is interesting to note the skills drain and brain drain that Australia (and other nations which do this) place on often less developed nations by pirating their skilled workers in this manner.

    The brain drain doesn’t end there. Many highly skilled people are forced to leave here for better working conditions, pay, and prospects for their and their kids’ futures elsewhere.

  13. KT2 FEBRUARY 2, 2022 AT 7:26 AM,

    Official measures of unemployment are delusional, deliberately so, and more so and more dishonest today than in 1974.

    C’mon, the ILO that lays down the standards on who, how, and what to count is controlled by member governments who in turn are controlled by a global neoliberal plutocracy. Governments, economists, and business spin it to their polities that they follow world’s best practice and international standards not local vested interest agendas and political biases. It’s lies all the way down.

  14. Paul Mainwood tweeted Feb 2 (with graph of % share of deaths mentioning COVID-19 in England and Wales – share of total by age demographics, from Jan 2020 through to Jan 2022):

    Looking at COVID-19 mentioned on death certificates as a share of the total – idea is to look at its contribution to mortality versus other causes.
    Pretty chunky shares, and extending down to younger than I expected.
    Until some mysterious effect in early 2021, anyway.

    Better data showing the COVID contribution to mortality would likely provide compelling evidence of the extent of how much human lifespans are shortened that “Living with COVID” really means.

  15. Virus surveillance.
    “…if he did the same analysis next year, Babaian says he would expect to find hundreds of thousands more RNA viruses.”By the end of decade, I want to identify over 100 million.”
    *

    “New dangers? Computers uncover 100,000 novel viruses in old genetic data

    “Clues to future outbreaks may be hidden in existing genomic databases

    …” When the researchers were finally finished, they had uncovered the partial genomes of almost 132,000 RNA viruses, they report today in Nature.

    “The group’s new database doesn’t have the complete sequence of each new virus—in many cases, there’s just the gene for the core enzyme. But researchers can use even partial sequences to build family trees that reveal how different viruses are related and how they evolve. They can also use the database to find out where a particular virus was found—and what its host is. And some discoveries could help researchers better understand how human pathogens arise, Brown says, or improve diagnostic tests for viral infections. Finally, when a new virus is isolated from a sick patient, researchers can more easily tell whether it has already been found elsewhere. “We have turned this [database] into a giant virus surveillance network,” Babaian says.

    “Some findings were unexpected, including previously unknown coronaviruses in the well-studied fugu fish and axolotls.”…

    https://www.science.org/content/article/new-dangers-computers-uncover-100-000-novel-viruses-old-genetic-data

    “Petabase-scale sequence alignment catalyses viral discovery”
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04332-2

  16. Stewart Brand, creator of The Whole Earth Catalogue and founder of the Long Now Foundation says;
    …” So, I’ve seen so many ends of the world come and go. I don’t believe in them anymore.”

    Stewart Brand’s comment provides a way to claw back pessimism and victimhood towards agency.
    *

    “… Stewart’s work – as a writer, as an initiator, and as an advocate for humanity – is both broad reaching and specific. Best known as the founder of the Whole Earth Catalog (which Steve Jobs famously referred to as “like Google in paperback form”), today Stewart runs the Long Now Foundation, writes, and lives on a converted 1912 tugboat in Sausalito, CA.

    …” SB: I’m 83 and counting, and I’ve seen so many end-of-the-world stories over time – some of which I bought into. I thought that my old teacher, Paul Ehrlich, was right about population, and I did public things in support of his views. He was almost completely upside down, in terms of what at the time was called the “demographic transition.” And then there was the energy crisis, there was peak oil. My environmentalist friends were saying, “The end of the world is coming, not just because of population, but because we’re going to run out of oil, and then we’ll go crazy.” Everyone said that the end of the world was coming, and it didn’t. So, I’ve seen so many ends of the world come and go. I don’t believe in them anymore. 

    “The threats often are very clear and the solutions are not – that’s understandable because the threat is clear and present! You can usually see a couple of solution paths being offered. Well, the ones that will work, you don’t know yet, they’re still being invented. This relates to the book Scale, by Geoffrey West, which looks at how cities do everything faster – they create problems faster than anything else in the world, but they create solutions to the problems faster than the problems. And so cities are these places where solutions just pour forth at civilization scale. In the pace layer diagram that I did for civilization, there’s a rural version and a city version. The city version of it goes way, way faster – people pay attention to what fashion and commerce are proposing, they occasionally mess with how the governance works, and certainly, infrastructure gets cranked out more rapidly in cities.”…
    https://theprepared.org/features-feed/how-buildings-learn

    “Pace Layering: How Complex Systems Learn and Keep Learning

    “Pace layers provide many-leveled corrective, stabilizing feedback throughout the system. It is in the contradictions between these layers that civilization finds its surest health. I propose six significant levels of pace and size in a robust and adaptable civilization.”
    by Stewart Brand
    https://jods.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/issue3-brand/release/2

    ** No I haven’t read “Scale” and provide no endorsement – as yet.

    “Scale by Geoffrey West: A brief summary

    “Insights into the universal scaling laws that underlie organisms, cities, economies, and companies”
    View at Medium.com

    …”scale across a broad spectrum of phenomena and an immense range of energy and mass scales covering 20 orders of magnitude. Remarkably, almost all physiological characteristics of biological organisms scale with body mass, M, as a power law whose exponent is typically a multiple of 1/4…”

    “[PDF] Scale: The Universal Laws of Growth, Innovation, Sustainability, and the Pace of Life in Organisms, Cities, Economies, and Companies By-Geoffrey West-Full Online”
    https://sites.google.com/site/ebookskinddledownloadpdf1/-pdf-scale-the-universal-laws-of-growth-innovation-sustainability-and-the-pace-of-life-in-organisms-cities-economies-and-companies-by-geoffrey-west-full-online

  17. Stewart Brand’s life span experience provides anecdotal evidence only. The science is clear. Current exponential trends are clearly unsustainable: population, CO2 emissions, climate change etc. It really means nothing that things haven’t collapsed thus far during one tiny, unrepresentative lifespan. Too much acid, too much electric Kool-Aid, too much bright-green techno-hopium I would say.

  18. Ikon, which is worse acid and Koolaid? You said “Too much acid, too much electric Kool-Aid”.

    Who would you prefer my kid reads, Long Now or Sharri Marrkson & Graham Lloyd via el goog with a faux stamp of a for profit business school?

    Which will provide agency to ameliorate neolibralism, AGW etc, not facilitate neoliberalism?

    “Pace Layering: How Complex Systems Learn and Keep Learning”…

    Or…

    News corpse, Sharri Markson, el goog and a for profit Melbourne Uni stamp?

    Any ideas as to how to manage information transmission towards your preferred effects and outcomes? My preferred outcomes align with yours yet I can’t teach my kid with your level of negativity. Many may give up trying.
    *

    “Sharri Markson, is now investigations editor at The Australian and a member of “the panel of experts” that will oversee the Digital News Academy.

    “News Corp Australasia’s executive chairman, Michael Miller, has said part of the academy’s role will be building a stronger Australia by keeping society informed through “strong and fearless news reporting and advocacy””.

    “News Corp and Google are corporate clients, paying the university for these courses, so the capacity for independent criticism of Australia’s most dominant newspaper company is eroded even further.”

    “It is telling that the Digital News Academy will be housed in the University of Melbourne’s private arm, the Melbourne Business School, rather than its Centre for Advancing Journalism within the Arts faculty.

    https://theconversation.com/news-corps-deal-with-google-and-the-melbourne-business-school-questioned-by-journalism-academics-176462

  19. KT2,

    Sorry, I was not criticizing your links in general. Most of them are very interesting. But I was criticizing Brand’s statement, “So, I’ve seen so many ends of the world come and go. I don’t believe in them anymore.” It sounds like limits to growth denialism to me. It’s not helpful. New Age gurus like Brand have just turned to be more false prophets. But that’s just my opinion.

  20. Ikon, thanks.

    I have trouble trying to telling my teenager about capitalism and global warming in a way that is not despiriting or turning into Gretta, however inspiring she is, as I personally would not be able to cope with such a spotlight.

    I’ve shown said tennager this just now;
    “Someone’s “selling” colors as NFTs”.
    A scam via a co registered in the UK via Cyprus!
    https://boingboing.net/2022/02/05/someones-selling-the-rights-to-colors-as-nfts.html

    And then the antidote : “You’ve been Rogered”…
    “Cracked’s “Roger” is a real straight shooter known for telling it like it is in their Honest Ads series. ​So, he’s been enlisted to share the truth about the “exciting world of non-fungible tokens” in If NFTs Were Honest.”
    https://boingboing.net/2022/02/05/someones-selling-the-rights-to-colors-as-nfts.html

    Note: Don’t watch above at yootube as you get a 1.5 MUNUTE add for Craig Kelly! Grrrr!

    I am then inspiring said teenager by the next video, fortunately served by ABC iVeiw, of Young Australian of the Year 2022;

    “Australia Day Address 2022 – Dr Daniel Nour

    “Dr Daniel Nour, 26, has become the youngest person to deliver the Australia Day Address.

    “Identifying a gap in medical facilities for vulnerable people he founded Street Side Medics, a not-for-profit mobile medical clinic for Sydney’s homeless that takes healthcare to the streets.”…

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/specialbroadcasts/australia-day-address-2022—dr-daniel-nour/13719084
    *

    When I grow up I asoure to be as helpful as Dr Daniel Nour’s.

    Hope you Sunday is real.

  21. Forgot my glasses again. And my sub editor.

    “When I grow up I aspire to be as helpful as Dr Daniel Nour.

    Hope your Sunday is real.”

    And I just realised our how our commons via Hancock & Palmer is being spent on Craig Kelly and trickling up to Alphabet via meTube. Grrrr x infinity.

  22. KT2,

    There’s a saying: “You can’t run an economy by taking in each other’s washing.” Equally, we could say, you can’t run an economy by selling each other personally owned NFTs (non-fungible tokens).

    I may be taking the saying a little literally, but what it means to me is that you can’t run an economy by:

    (a) trading with each other for the same good or service; and/or
    (b) trading with each other for only relatively trivial goods and services (thus leaving the production and distribution of essential goods and services to languish, like aged care to give a current example).

    Color NFTs are trivial, artificially demarcated and virtual. The wavelengths of light involved are real of course. Those can be physically measured. But what NFTs essentially refer to is putting a property stamp on everything in existence: the real world commons being micro-sliced so that it can be micro-marketised. Perhaps I should acquire, by some sort of slight of purchase or primitive accumulation, the rights to hydrogen, oxygen, carbon and nitrogen. That would make me super, super rich. Everybody would have to pay me every time they used one of these atoms. Since all your bodies are made out of of them you would all owe me big time. 🙂 This illustrates the absurdity of the proposition of enclosing and monetizing all of nature piecemeal, or wholemeal for that matter. All of this refers back to the Lauderdale Paradox explored by James Maitland (Earl of Lauderdale).

    “In the paradox with which his name came to be associated, Lauderdale argued that there was an inverse correlation between public wealth and private riches such that an increase in the latter often served to diminish the former. “Public wealth,” he wrote, “may be accurately defined, — to consist of all that man desires, as useful or delightful to him.” Such goods have use value and thus constitute wealth. But private riches, as opposed to wealth, required something additional (i.e., had an added limitation), consisting “of all that man desires as useful or delightful to him; which exists in a degree of scarcity.” –
    The Paradox of Wealth: Capitalism and Ecological Destruction by John Bellamy Foster and Brett Clark.

    The whole article is well worth reading:

    https://monthlyreview.org/2009/11/01/the-paradox-of-wealth-capitalism-and-ecological-destruction/

    It points out that much scarcity is created by enclosing what can and should be commons and can and should be so by both practical and ethical yardsticks. People become rich from creating artificial scarcity when there need not be scarcity in many things at all. As I say, the paper is well worth reading.

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