Message Board

Running way behind, but here’s a Message Board

Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.

I’ve moved my irregular email news from Mailchimp to Substack. You can read it here. You can also follow me on Twitter @JohnQuiggin

I’m also trying out Substack as a blogging platform. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack.

49 thoughts on “Message Board

  1. I recommend all here reading;

    Stephen J!  A superb and enlightening submission, and I agree wholeheartedly that “it should be seen by a wider audience.”

    NZ Council for Civil Liberties says of your submission:- “We liked Stephen Judd’s submission on the Data & Statistics Bill and thought it should be seen by a wider audience…”

    “Data & Statistics Bill should be withdrawn”
    By Stephen Judd

    “The Statistician may take into account the harms of disclosure or sharing with other agencies and yet do it anyway, perhaps endangering the well-being of some people.

    “I Want A List Of Their Names

    “Many citizens may not want to disclose personal information beyond the strictly necessary. “I don’t want to” should of course be a good and sufficient reason in and of itself, but beyond this, a desire for privacy can be founded on cultural, religious or other values, or pragmatic fears about misuse.

    “As a Jew, I personally do not want to contribute to a registry of where all the Jews live. 

    [My caveat: above applies to all humans, yet as a Jew, your point is amplified. My kid has been kidnapped. I may tag above “as a victim”. Thanks for sharing.]

    …”Members of other minorities might well feel the same. It is true that government services can be targeted more accurately and fairly when more is known about the community, but equally, “good enough” knowledge can be obtained with less compulsion and more consent. 
    ☆ “The Bill rests on the belief that more knowledge is always better, which is false and dangerous.” ☆

    “Crime Is Its Own Reward…

    “It Was Safe When We Checked Last

    “But these precautionary principles are not to be found in the Bill. Far from seeking to constrain the use of data, there is an unspoken premise that data has no value unless it is used, and that greater value can be further derived by sharing our data.

    “For all these reasons, the Bill makes me very uneasy. It will be interesting to see if the select committee feels the same way.”

    https://nzccl.org.nz/guest-post-data-statistics-bill-should-be-withdrawn/
    *** end Suburb Submission ***

    And re your current “Sabbatical, Week Six”
    February 22, 2022

    “… I have been helping a little group of volunteers who are concerned about misinformation and disinformation with their work. In fact I suppose I can say our work now. And as you may imagine, with the protests this week, we have been trying to do something useful to improve the world.”
    https://vital.org.nz/posts/weeksix.html

    Stephen J, you now have Barak Obama onside re information, misinformation and disinformation.

    “Barack Obama Takes On a New Role: Fighting Disinformation

    “The former president has embarked on a campaign to warn that the scourge of online falsehoods has eroded the foundations of democracy.

    “More than a decade later, Mr. Obama is making another trip to Silicon Valley, this time with a grimmer message about the threat that the tech giants have created to the nation itself.

    “In private meetings and public appearances over the last year, the former president has waded deeply into the public fray over misinformation and disinformation, warning that the scourge of falsehoods online has eroded the foundations of democracy at home and abroad.

    “In a speech at Stanford University on Thursday, he is expected to add his voice to demands for rules to rein in the flood of lies polluting public discourse.

    “The urgency of the crisis — the internet’s “demand for crazy,” as he put it recently — has already pushed him further than he was ever prepared to go as president to take on social media.

    nytimes.com /2022/04/20/ technology/barack-obama-disinformation.html

    “Barack Obama Addresses the Intersection of Online Disinformation, Regulation and Democracy at Stanford Event

    “At a conference hosted by the Cyber Policy Center and Obama Foundation, former U.S. President Barack Obama delivered the keynote address about how information is created and consumed, and the threat that disinformation poses to democracy.
    May 3, 2022

    “During a speech at Stanford University on Thursday, April 21, 2022, former U.S. President Barack Obama presented his audience with a stark choice: “Do we allow our democracy to wither, or do we make it better?”

    “Over the course of an hour-long address, Obama outlined the threat that disinformation online, including deepfake technology powered by AI, poses to democracy as well as ways he thought the problems might be addressed in the United States and abroad.

    “This is an opportunity, it’s a chance that we should welcome for governments to take on a big important problem and prove that democracy and innovation can coexist,” Obama said.

    https://cyber.fsi.stanford.edu/news/barack-obama-addresses-intersection-online-disinformation-regulation-and-democracy-stanford
    ***

    And, “with the protests this week”, as I had no idea:

    “New Zealand police end three week COVID-19 protest

    Niamh Forgie
    Auckland Law School, NZ
    MARCH 3, 2022

    “New Zealand police Wednesday stormed parliament grounds in riot gear reclaiming the space where anti-vaccine mandate protesters had camped for 23 days.

    “Hundreds of police began moving across parliament grounds early Wednesday morning, breaking up the protester’s camp, dressed in riot gear and equipped with pepper spray. The police towed vehicles obstructing roads as they pushed forward. The protesters retaliated by lighting tents on fire, using fire extinguishers, and throwing bricks, road cones, or any other objects they could find.

    “By the end of the day, 87 arrests had been made and 50 vehicles were towed. Additionally, seven police were reported as injured during the operation.

    “In a statement released midday Wednesday, New Zealand’s Police Commissioner Andrew Coster stated:”…

    https://www.jurist.org/news/2022/03/new-zealand-police-end-three-week-covid-19-protest/

    “Reporters Without Borders (RSF) calls on the authorities in New Zealand’s capital, Wellington, to prosecute those responsible for the threats and violence against reporters coming from the large crowd of demonstrators camped outside the parliament building in the city centre for the past two weeks in a protest against obligatory Covid-19 vaccination.”
    https://rsf.org/en/threats-and-violence-against-reporters-new-zealands-freedom-convoy-protests

  2. “Disability as Metaphor in American Law”
    29 Apr 2022

    Doron Dorfman
    Seton Hall Law School

    “.. This Article therefore calls scholars, legislators, judges, and advocates to adopt a bio-psycho-social model of disability and to avoid the use of disability as metaphor and prevent backlash against disability rights and the further marginalization of people with disabilities.”
    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4094398

  3. “The royal commission that could recoup billions of rorted Aussie dollars

    “Whereas exports to China have gone from 4.14% of GDP in 2015 to 8.66% in 2021, company taxes collected have shifted over that time from 3.73% to just 4.90%.

    “Exhibit C will be the Tax Office’s annual transparency reports which show that most large exporters of Australia’s immense minerals and energy wealth pay little company tax, if any. Since Tony Abbott became Prime Minister in 2013, they have not been required to.

    “Quite clearly, if the Government was retaining a fair share of this extensive wealth sent offshore, there would be plenty of revenue to increase pensions, benefits and wages, to catch up on infrastructure long overdue, then to balance the budgets and repay the debt stacked on unnecessarily since the end of the Global Financial Crisis.

    “This is not happening. In fact, since 2015, Australia is one of just three OECD members to have increased gross debt by more than 22% of its GDP. See grey chart, below.

    “Questions for a commission to explore
    Among the many questions arising from the disappearing export revenue are these:
    Q1-6

    “Did we mention that convening this royal commission and recovering these hundreds of billions will require a change of government? Please share this wherever possible.”
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-royal-commission-that-could-recoup-billions-of-rorted-aussie-dollars,16316

  4. Any comment on rent Prof’s? A comment to put energy into a PhD?

    D. T. Cochrane
    “Hello all,

    “I’m currently doing a post-doc with Kean Birch at York University. He uses the concept of rent, although he’s hardly alone in that. It figures prominently in Piketty and Mazucatto, arguably two of the most famous political economists. Indeed, it may be considered the defining concept of critical political economy.

    “Conversely, N&B have posted critically about the concept on Twitter:https://twitter.com/BichlerNitzan/status/1315785993023352839

    “From private conversation, I also know that Professor Nitzan considers the concept unusable because of its dialectical relationship with productivity. Briefly, the returns to rentiership are drawn out of returns to productivity. This usage is definitely at work in Mazzucato and Piketty. One consequence is that it retains a conception of returns that accrue to a productive portion of capital. Obviously this is completely rejected in a CasP analysis.

    “However, I contend that rent remains a useful concept in part because of the intellectual-theoretical development that ejected it from economics. With marginal productivity theory the neoclassicists eliminated rent and all returns to capital were based on marginal contribution to production. There was no longer any such thing as unproductive ownership. I think we can turn this on its head a la Marx to Hegel: all returns to ownership are rent. Indeed, this can be drawn from Ricardo, who originated the distinction between returns to ownership and returns to production.

    “This strikes me as analytically and strategically useful. Analytically, none of the current words for the monies that accrue to the owners of capital encapsulate every source, i.e. profits, interest, dividends, share buybacks, acquisitions…. Rent could be the umbrella term. Strategically, it makes sense to use terms that are familiar to people. High profile people are using the term. It has a long political economic history. It has political resonance. “So, a redefinition that pushes it in a direction I’d say it is already going is strategically useful.

    “I actually presented on this subject, identifying rent within the Compustat database, if anyone is interested:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaFGEJ8zo6w&feature=youtu.be

    “I will follow up with some other quantitative analysis I’ve done for the purpose of understanding and rehabilitating the concept.

    “But I’m also open to more discussion for why the concept should be left behind.

    “Viewing 21 reply threads

    https://capitalaspower.com/casp-forum/topic/is-rent-a-useful-concept/#post-247956

    D. T. Cochrane
    https://theconversation.com/profiles/d-t-cochrane-461454/articles

    Kean Birch
    Associate Professor
    http://www.keanbirch.net/
    https://scholar.google.ca/citations?user=wKYYL5MAAAAJ&hl=en
    *

    “r < 0

    " Presumably profits are being creamed off as rents in some way. Brett Christopher’s forthcoming Rentier Capitalism is highly relevant."…
    https://johnquiggin.com/2020/08/15/r-0/

  5. How does the war in Ukraine end?

    One way is that either most of Ukraine or half the world becomes the uninhabitable radioactive wasteland left by a nuclear war. I can’t begin to think about this, and our best hope may be to keep it unthinkable.

    At the other extreme, we have Russia just declaring victory tomorrow, stopping all attacks, and ordering its troops to go strictly on the defensive. This would probably be Putin’s least bad option. But it’s very unlikely. One, Putin still inhabits a fantasy cognitive bubble in which Russia comes out on top, rather than suffering an ignominious military, political and economic defeat. Cutting his losses at this point is the right strategy, but he won’t take it. Two, the Ukrainians have no reason to accept the current front lines. They are winning quite nicely in defence; faced with a static and demoralised adversary, they would go on the attack. The quite small Russian forces west of the Dnieper, supplied over one bridge and one dam, are for instance over-extended and vulnerable. Three, while Ukraine’s Western allies have not articulated their war aims, they do generally seem committed to a policy of “no Russian gains” from the invasion. This means they would support Ukraine’s effort to roll back Russian forces to the February 23 lines of control. Fair enough.

    But beyond that? This is where things get interesting. The Ukrainians are fired up, especially after the horrific Russian war crimes in Bucha and Mariupol. They won’t be satisfied without reversing the Russian annexations of 2014 as well; the Donbass and Crimea both recovered. The allies will not share this aim fully. The sanctions on Russian oil and gas are hurting them too, and they will be looking for a deal that allows them to drop these. Crimea can wait.

    The allies won’t have a very strong hand in this divergence of interests. If the Ukrainian army can drive the Russian army back to the February 23 lines, it has established enough superiority to keep going beyond them. Motivation won’t be a problem either. The threat of dropping sanctions won’t be enough to stop the advance.

    Clever Russian leaders – not including Putin and Lavrov – would however have their wedge to split the unity of their adversaries and salvage something from the disaster. It’s in everybody’s interests to have a true peace treaty rather than a frozen conflict. How about a UN trusteeship for the Crimea? It’s a nice place, unlike the industrial Donbass. There will be no shortage of capable technocrats willing to serve as khan for five years or so until a clean referendum can be held.

  6. Covid – The Good, Bad & Ugly 

    + Very Ugly +3C Liberal Party climate inaction leading to “increase the risk of pandemics.”(^4-Harvard.)
    *

    Good – More Life, for some. 
    Australian life expectancy “increase of 0.7 years from 2019 to 2020 for both females and males. This was the greatest increase of all the countries looked at in the study”^1., mainly from decrease in;
    – “sharp decline in the spread of other infectious diseases due to COVID-19 containment measures”.  
    -“reduction in deaths due to cancer and cardiovascular diseases, 
    – “large reduction in the number of road traffic accidents.”

    Bad – Excess Deaths 
    i)”the United States has seen a decrease in life expectancy, with losses of -1.7 and -2.2 years for females and males respectively” ^1. and
    ii) “14.9 million excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021” ^2.

    iii) “Twenty countries, representing approximately 50% of the global population, account for over 80% of the estimated global excess mortality”(^2-Details )

    Ugly – VoC & Reinfections 
    “we expect to see a rapid rise in COVID cases in the coming weeks and months due to reinfections” ^3.

    *
    ^1. Good.
    “Pandemic restrictions have led to longer life expectancy for Australians, a new study from The Australian National University (ANU) has found.   

    “A silver lining to seemingly endless days in lockdown is that Australians’ life expectancy jumped in 2020. Instead of the expected average annual increase in longevity of 0.09-0.14 years seen from 2015 to 2019, researchers found an increase of 0.7 years from 2019 to 2020 for both females and males. This was the greatest increase of all the countries looked at in the study, published in the International Journal of Epidemiology.  

    “The countries with the next highest increases were Denmark and Norway, both with 0.1 and 0.2 years for females and males respectively.

    “In contrast, the United States has seen a decrease in life expectancy, with losses of -1.7 and -2.2 years for females and males respectively. 
    https://cass.anu.edu.au/news/australians-are-living-longer-lockdowns

    Published in the International Journal of Epidemiology
    https://academic.oup.com/ije/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/ije/dyab273/6506578
    *

    ^2. Bad.
    5 million deaths due to Covid? No.
    “14.9 million excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021
    “… the full death toll associated directly or indirectly with the COVID-19 pandemic (described as “excess mortality”) between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021 was approximately 14.9 million (range 13.3 million to 16.6 million).”
    https://www.who.int/news/item/05-05-2022-14.9-million-excess-deaths-were-associated-with-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-2020-and-2021

    Details, graphs, data…
    “A comprehensive view of global deaths directly and indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.”…

    “Twenty countries, representing approximately 50% of the global population, account for over 80% of the estimated global excess mortality for the January 2020 to December 2021 period. These countries are Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Germany, India, Indonesia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Italy, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, the Russian Federation, South Africa, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Turkey, Ukraine, and the United States of America (USA).”
    https://www.who.int/data/stories/global-excess-deaths-associated-with-covid-19-january-2020-december-2021
    *

    ^3. Ugly.
    “Why are there so many new Omicronsub-variants, like BA.4 and BA.5? Will I be reinfected? Is the virus mutating faster?

    “… we expect to see a rapid rise in COVID cases in the coming weeks and months due to reinfections, which we are already seeing in South Africa.
    http://theconversation.com/why-are-there-so-many-new-omicron-sub-variants-like-ba-4-and-ba-5-will-i-be-reinfected-is-the-virus-mutating-faster-182274
    *

    ^4. Very Ugly – Australia climate policy. 

    “Scorched dystopia or liveable planet? Here’s where the climate policies of our political hopefuls will take us

    “Alarmingly, the Coalition’s climate policy is consistent with a very dangerous 3℃ of global warming. Labor’s policy is slightly better, but only policies by the Greens and the “teals” are consistent with keeping global warming at or below 1.5℃.””…
    https://theconversation.com/scorched-dystopia-or-liveable-planet-heres-where-the-climate-policies-of-our-political-hopefuls-will-take-us-182513

    “Many of the root causes of climate change also increase the risk of pandemics. Deforestation, which occurs mostly for agricultural purposes, is the largest cause of habitat loss worldwide. Loss of habitat forces animals to migrate and potentially contact other animals or people and share germs. Large livestock farms can also serve as a source for spillover of infections from animals to people. Less demand for animal meat and more sustainable animal husbandry could decrease emerging infectious disease risk and lower greenhouse gas emissions.

    “We have many reasons to take climate action to improve our health and reducing risks for infectious disease emergence is one of them.”
    https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/c-change/subtopics/coronavirus-and-climate-change/

  7. James Wimberley, it is breakfast time here. Your comment dies not aid digestion.

    “How does the war in Ukraine end?

    “One way is that either most of Ukraine or half the world becomes the uninhabitable radioactive wasteland left by a nuclear war. I can’t begin to think about this, and our best hope may be to keep it unthinkable.”

    I too hope too, it is kept as an “unthinkable”.

    Yet we now know the cause of the Russian convoy “snarl-up that stalled the infamous 40-mile military convoy north of Kyiv.”

    “… the Belarus railway saboteurs can at least claim a role in fueling the logistical chaos that quickly engulfed the Russians, leaving troops stranded on the front lines without food, fuel and ammunition within days of the invasion.

    “For days on end, the movement of trains was paralyzed, forcing the Russians to attempt to resupply their troops by road and contributing to the snarl-up that stalled the infamous 40-mile military convoy north of Kyiv.”
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/23/ukraine-belarus-railway-saboteurs-russia/

  8. ● Trust: foregone opportunity cost is $2,000,000,000 (^1.)
    + Australia’s sunk cost obsolete the day we spend on the chimera I call the “CollinsAukusDeadweight” – another $500 million on it in 2022–23, . ..That’s for a capability Prime Minister Scott Morrison admitted would be obsolete the day it would eventually have been launched sometime in the mid-2030s.(^2.)

    ● Burden: The  global military burden is 2.2 per cent of world gross domestic product.

    ● Share! 5.9 per cent as a share of government expenditure 

    ● Repairs? Crickets.

    ● Humananity? <0 and falling
    *

    ^1.
    "In 2021 world military expenditure surpassed the two trillion US dollar mark for the first time, reaching $2113 billion. Global spending in 2021 was 0.7 per cent higher than in 2020 and 12 per cent higher than in 2012. The economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have not ended the continuous upward trend in world military expenditure seen since 2015. As a result of the strong economic recovery across the globe in 2021, world military spending as a share of world gross domestic product—the global military burden—reached 2.2 per cent, down from 2.3 per cent in 2020. Average military spending as a share of government expenditure in 2021 remained the same as in 2020, at 5.9 per cent.

    "Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2021
    https://sipri.org/publications/2022/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-world-military-expenditure-2021

    Report:

    Click to access fs_2204_milex_2021_0.pdf

    ^2. Australia?
    "… At $48.6 billion between the Department of Defence and the Australian Signals Directorate, it’s a substantial and growing sum. In nominal terms it’s a healthy 7.4% increase on 2021–22. Despite high inflation, it’s still a real increase of 3.8%. For those interested in spending as a percentage of GDP, it’s 2.11% based on the government’s GDP predictions. Of course, using GDP to measure defence spending is a crude tool; 2021–22’s defence budget started off at 2.09% but is now a hair below 2.0% at 1.98% because GDP has recovered so strongly, not because the government didn’t deliver its funding commitment."

    https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/defence-budget-shows-signs-of-a-different-approach-but-is-it-changing-fast-enough/

  9. Crazy. Bent capiitalism.

    Journalism & news swallowed by FANGS, and divert cash, so “In 2016, Domain (majority owned by Nine Entertainment, publisher of the Financial Review) invested $15 million in Oneflare in a deal that valued the business at nearly $50 million.”

    9 News is now in the gig economy business.

    Yet they will be profiting from the race to the botton of self employed ‘AirTaker’s’.

    Nine, Fin Review, shareholders – rentiers won’t be paying to support the “Self-employed feel the sharp edge of COVID-19, survey shows”

    > “The survey also found almost one-third (31.6 per cent) of self-employed Australians don’t think their businesses are economically viable in the next two months if current economic trends continue.  

    > “This increased to two-in-five (40.1 per cent), when self-employed Australians were asked if they thought their businesses were economically viable in the next six months,” Professor Gray said.  

    > “The survey also shows self-employed Australians have lost more work hours than other Australians because of COVID-19 (9.3 hours per week for the self-employed compared to 3.1 hours for employees) and have lost more income ($66.7 more than other employees). The self-employed are almost three-times as likely to have accessed retirement savings or superannuation early compared to employees. 

    > “Clearly, self-employed Australians are really feeling the heat when it comes to the economic impact of COVID-19,” Professor Gray said.  

    > “Our survey shows this is also causing significant distress and taking a toll on their mental health.  

    https://cass.anu.edu.au/news/self-employed-feel-sharp-edge-covid-19-survey-shows

    “In 2016, Domain (majority owned by Nine Entertainment, publisher of the Financial Review) invested $15 million in Oneflare in a deal that valued the business at nearly $50 million.

    “Airtasker snags Domain’s Oneflare for a fraction of its former value”
    https://www.afr.com/technology/airtasker-snags-domain-s-oneflare-for-a-fraction-of-its-former-value-20220504-p5aief

  10. Yesterday (May 5), a public forum was hosted by the Bathurst branch of the Combined Pensioners and Superannuants Association (CPSA) at the Bathurst Memorial Entertainment Centre to provide an opportunity for constituents of the Federal Electorate of Calare to meet the 6 candidates standing for election in the Australian Parliament House of Representatives on May 21, observe each of the candidate’s 5-minute long limited presentations, and for members of the public to ask some or all of the candidates a question that may concern them, and have them respond.
    https://www.aec.gov.au/election/candidates.htm

    My question to all candidates was:

    As a consequence of the world continuing with its current policy settings regarding greenhouse gas emissions, global mean warming is likely to reach 3 to 4 °C above the pre-industrial epoch by 2100.

    Large areas of the world would become uninhabitable, causing mass migration and conflict.

    Many locations in Australia would become uninhabitable due to water shortages, and many Australian properties and businesses would become uninsurable.

    Peak heatwaves, that occurred only once per 30 years in pre-industrial times in Australia, could be expected annually.

    This would be a severe challenge for our contemporary civilisation, leading to probable collapse.

    If we don’t solve the climate crisis, then nothing else will matter.

    I think a vote for politicians and political parties encouraging and facilitating more fossil fuels is a vote for civilisation collapse.

    Why should I vote one for you?

    Thank you.

    The event proceedings clarified my estimations of the suitability of the candidates to represent me.

  11. Geoff,

    Let me guess. All the candidates were totally hopeless with the possible exception of a Greens candidate if your electorate has one.

  12. Ikon, you wag “totally hopeless”.-:)

    Geoff M, I am surprised by your global conclusion “The event proceedings clarified my estimations of the suitability of the candidates to represent me.”, considering your climate focused questions.

    Calare is, let’s face it, basically a Nationals seat – 66% Nats after preferences to Labor’s 38% in 2019.

    Any hints as to your “estimations of the suitability” if Candidates?

    Andrew Gee (Nationals) imo, would not be a suitable choice considering your obvious climate focus. Andrew Gee comes off to me as a local Scomo.

    Kate Hook (Independent)?
    Kay Nankervis (Greens)?
    Sarah Elliott (Labor)?

    Very doubtful;
    Stacey Whittaker (One Nation)
    Adam Jannis (United Australia)

    Any further comment as they are also my candidates.

  13. And here is my whinge of the day on top of the total inaction on climate change.

    The SARS2 or SARS-Cov-2 virus (with the disease it causes misnamed as Covid-19 for reality minimization purposes) is totally out of control around the world. 25 million people have been killed (global excess deaths) since the virus was deliberately permitted to swamp the world by elite-led mass inaction facilitated by a massive disinformation campaign.

    Really terrible realities are starting to arise. For example, studies and data now confirm that (in no particular order);

    (a) herd immunity is impossible;
    (b) the current vaccines and boosters are progressively failing;
    (c) people can catch Covid-19 multiple times;
    (d) each time you catch it, it adds to your risk, even if vaccinated;
    (e) Omicron most definitely is NOT milder than earlier variants after adjusting for all factors;
    (f) Covid-19 or SARS2 disease now borders on being Australia’s number 1 cause of death;
    (g) Impacts on children are becoming significant and concerning; and
    (i) hospital and ambulance systems across Australia are on the verge of collapse.

    The activities of the politicians and certain doctors, epidemiologists etc. (in Australia and globally) who unleashed this decease are now much about denial of these current realities. They seek to obscure the facts about Covid-19 or SARS2 disease and to hide or minimize the case statistics including deaths.

    This is no longer about disease control. This is about damage control. And the damage those, who let this virus rip, are trying to control is the damage to their own careers and reputations. They are doubling down on the lies, myths and misinformation campaigns in order to protect themselves from any day of reckoning for the disaster they have unleashed on the globe and on Australia.

    Keep your eye on the issue of the rise of fulminant hepatitis in very young children. Currently, attempts are being made to assign it to a rise in Adenovirus (of potentially the wrong serotype). But many in the scientific world are crying foul in that SARS-Cov-2 appears to have been ruled out prematurely as a possible cause, by using poor serology. It’s not possible to say yet how this disagreement will go scientifically. Sufficient peer reviewed papers are not yet in so far as I can tell. But given the track record to date of the authorities and their scientifically self-perjuring medical advisers we would have to be very suspicious about this. The presumption of good faith and scientific honesty is scarcely one which reasonably can be extended to these Covid-minimizing people any more.

  14. KT2: – “Any hints as to your “estimations of the suitability” if Candidates?

    My impressions:
    * two candidates expressed strong commitment for rapid action on climate change;
    https://greens.org.au/nsw/person/kay-nankervis
    https://voteforkate.com.au/climate-action/

    * two candidates suggested continuing with fossil fuel extraction for longer (and the jobs/economy associated with them) are more important;

    * two candidates expressed the view that “climate has always been changing” (or words to that effect), implying that the current climate change being experienced is not due to humanity.

    I don’t know why the website voteclimateone.org.au has indicated that there are concerns about Kate Hook’s climate policy. Perhaps it may be because she is an independent without a parliamentary voting record?
    https://voteclimateone.org.au/electoral-division/calare/

    KT2: – “Calare is, let’s face it, basically a Nationals seat

    History tells a different story. Calare has switched between Labor and the Nationals/Country Party. Independent Peter Andren held it between 2 March 1996 – 17 October 2007.

  15. Per covidlive.com.au, deaths from COVID-19 in Australia were:
    Period _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Days_ Accumulated Total _ Total for Period _ Average deaths/day
    2020, Mar 01 to Dec 31: 306 _ _ _ _909 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 909 _ _ _ _ _ _ 2.97
    2021, Jan 01 to Dec 31: 365 _ _ _2,239_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _1,330 _ _ _ _ _ _ 3.64
    2022, Jan 01 to May 05: 125 _ _ _7,423 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 5,184 _ _ _ _ _ _41.47
    https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-deaths/aus

    If the COVID-19 average death rate remains constant in 2022, then the death rate for the full year in Australia would total around 15,137 (give or take the margin of error in extrapolation).

    Per ABS, the top 8 leading causes of death, plus other causes such as suicide, influenza, etc., in Australia:
    Cause of Death _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _2019 _ _ 2020
    All causes _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 169,301 _ 161,300
    1. Ischaemic heart diseases _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _18,244 _ _16,587
    2. Dementia including Alzheimer’s disease _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 15,016 _ _14,575
    3. Cerebrovascular diseases _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 9,891 _ _ 9,470
    4. Malignant neoplasm of trachea, bronchus and lung _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 8,821 _ _ 8,457
    5. Chronic lower respiratory diseases _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 8,372 _ _ 7,102
    6. Malignant neoplasm of colon, sigmoid, rectum & anus _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 5,410 _ _ 5,483
    7. Diabetes _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _4,967 _ _ 5,148
    8. Malignant neoplasms of lymphoid, haematopoietic & related tissue _ 4,793 _ _ 4,754
    Accidental falls _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 3,298 _ _ 3,395
    Intentional self-harm (suicide) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 3,318 _ _ 3,139
    Influenza and pneumonia _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _4,124 _ _2,287
    Drug-induced (overdose & chronic use) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1,874 _ _1,842
    Motor vehicle accidents _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1,282 _ _ 1,163
    https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/causes-death-australia/2020

    So it seems COVID-19 is proving to be a major cause of death, and on current trends, second only to ischaemic heart diseases.

  16. KT2: – “Calare is, let’s face it, basically a Nationals seat”.

    Ok. But 15yrs now Nationals, and I haven’t seen Labor at all in 20+, and zero Andren’s on horizon. I’d love to be proved wrong.

    Aside. My Dad decided in the 80’s to be fair and balanced. Bit of a swinging voyer. Went to a similar meeting to above. Nats candidate flumoxed by question and had no answer. Hence Nats didn’t pick up a swinging vote.

    This election will be interesting.

    And 15k Covid deaths! I will continue mask wearing. Local hospital though forlorornly extols “if you’ve been in contact with or exposed to, or had Covid in the oast 14days”, yet cannot refuse anyone. Omicron makes the questions superfluous.

  17. WWIII will start by lack of trust in government + fake news, veto powers of social media giants and, via…

    “Deepfake video of Zelenskyy could be ‘tip of the iceberg’ in info war, experts warn

    “Officials at Facebook, YouTube and Twitter said the video was removed from their platforms for violating policies. On Russian social media, meanwhile, the deceptive video was boosted.”

    https://www.npr.org/2022/03/16/1087062648/deepfake-video-zelenskyy-experts-war-manipulation-ukraine-russia

  18. If the COVID-19 average death rate increases further in 2022 then on that trend it will become the major cause of death in Australia in 2022. My prediction is that this will indeed happen. There are several reasons to suggest this will be the case. These include the upcoming winter months, more variants, complications with the new flu and ongoing failures to get boosters. Ambulance and hospital overload may also cause more COVID-19 deaths. Another reason may even include the government giving up on boosters. Fifth shot anyone? You will likely need it before year’s end on current trends but will the government make it available? I have seen no such commitment. Meanwhile variants which can reinfect continuously are exploding.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-06/new-covid-omicron-sub-variants-ba-4-and-ba-5/101042440

    I’ll go out even further on a limb. Every year from now to 2030 inclusive will be worse than the year before in Australia for COVID-19 deaths and COVID-19 sequelae deaths. This is unless there is a new major vaccine breakthrough (preferably a fully sterilizing vaccine) or unless major TTIQM measures are re-introduced in Australia. Without these changes matters will just get worse and worse, I predict. There’s really nothing in the current trends to suggest anything will get better.

  19. PROVEN: OMICRON IS NOT MILDER.

    Just another one of the many ill-founded assumptions and lies peddled by the “let it rip” crowd. Their absurd, evidence-free assumptions and lies have been legion. I’m going to keep pointing out all the lies in every forum I can for as long as I can. I will never let this go. The Prime Liars have to be brought to accountability.

    On a personal note, my wife’s medical precondition symptoms (from a condition extant before COVID-19 came along) seem to be increasing almost weekly, although she it still fully able on most days. She has not had COVID-19 yet. I have a reasonable apprehension that she may be in serious danger from catching COVID-19. We take all possible precautions but spreading the virus unnecessarily through the whole of our society has made safe life impossible for all people with medical precondtions. That is unconscionable and unforgivable by those in positions of power and trust. This process has been enabled as I say by the endless evidence-free assumptions, the lies being told and the false propaganda surrounding this issue: all being advanced to ensure the incomes of the rich and privileged at the expense of everyone else. I for one will never forgive or forget this crime against humanity as long as I live.

    “There has not been a single moment during this pandemic when the “return to normal (get back to work)” crowd has been correct about the risks of COVID…and the consequences have been devastating/deadly for so many.” – Walker Bragman

  20. Problems for children compounding around the world due to Covid-19 “let it rip – infect everybody – don’t protect the children” policies. This article talks about Edmonton Canada. I have a nephew with a wife and 5 young children living in Edmonton. I hope they are all right. These problems affect every one around the whole world. We are all connected.

    https://globalnews.ca/news/8813842/stollery-childrens-hospital-emergency-wait-times/

    “Turns out that even infecting and sickening the kids isn’t enough to make us want to implement basic public health measures. Might interfere with adults’ lifestyles, see? I’ve said it before: today’s kids are going to write the history of these times. Watch out.” – Dr, David Berger, Twitter.

  21. Some rules are not like others, i learned this weak. For example, if it looks like one might be putting ones cup of tee on the floor next to ones chair, someone with autority will tell preemptively that this is banned. If on the other hand, someone wears his mask below his mouth while strict mask rules still apply for good reason, particular vulnurable people involved and all that, that gets tactically not seen by staff for an entire weak. You see, the cheap carpet could get wet when someone spills tea on it, clearly this is more dangerous than getting covid.

  22. hix,

    Someone, especially on older person, tripping on the cup on the floor could be a health and safety issue. Even so, your point is still valid. Covid-19 is very dangerous and there is no safe number of times to catch it (other than zero times of course). Many persons still take it lightly and quite a number of them will live to regret that mistake. Some will not even live… to regret.

  23. Pretty sure that in this context the spilling on the floor was the only issue if there was any reflection at all. And know what, the rule as such is perfectly fine with me. There is a good chance that experience shows this happens all the time, makeing it quite a bit of a nuisance. There is a broader issue to me than that people are ignorant about covid here. Essentially a society that is utterly pedantic about all the old stuff even minor stuff with pretty fast brutal social enforcment – don´t take a soda in the library, don´t put a cup of tea on the floor in a seminar chair circle, never go across a pedestrian crossing when the traffic light is red, always put your chair back, be punctual, make sure you are an efficient customer that does not delay the checkout process in supermarkets (thats a pretty long list of little things actually no other societies could not dream about assigning social stigma too) even etc….. the list is endless, that society risks a breakdown of social cohasion and large scale alienation in a much profounder way than others when covid norms are hold to a much much lower standard, or even notoriously undermined in public discourse. So far German society can uphold large scale compliance with all kinds of norms because they are less likely to be stupid, arbitrary, or a form of chicanery or that there were double standards based on social status than in most other countries (note less likely, not rare).

    Now we got covid rules that fall far short of how norms were set in the past and even those limited important ones are enforced asymetric. They are also permanently challenged by a discourse of alternative facts that reminds me more and more of the US. Frankly, i´m inklined to spill the tea and not clean it up out of spite, both methaphorically as well as literarerily speaking.

  24. Personally, for my knowledge communication, I’d like every policy to come with a graphic like this one.

    Shows Liberal/ Coalition, “teal” indep3ndants & Greens temperature rise. climate policy outcomes against climate change warming & Co2 concentration -historical & projected.

    Click to access auselection22_partyclimategoals_climateanalytics_1.pdf

    “Australian election 2022 political party and independent climate goals: analysis

    “Ahead of the upcoming Australian elections, Climate Analytics has analysed the global warming implications of the 2030 climate targets of the political parties and independents: the LNP, the Labor Party (ALP), the Teal Independents (the Zali Steggall Bill), and the Greens.

    “The results are stark, showing the LNP targets are consistent with 3˚C of global warming (bordering on 4˚C), the ALP’s target is consistent with 2˚C, and the Teal Independents and Greens consistent with 1.5˚C of warming.

    https://climateanalytics.org/publications/2022/australian-election-2022-political-party-and-independent-climate-goals-analysis/

  25. “Warren Buffett Says Markets Have Become a ‘Gambling Parlor’

    wsj com/articles/
    warren-buffett-says-markets-have-become-a-gambling-parlor-11651340230

  26. KT2: – “Calare is, let’s face it, basically a Nationals seat”

    History tells a different story. Calare has switched between Labor and the Nationals/Country Party. Independent Peter Andren held it between 2 March 1996 – 17 October 2007.

    There are two points worth noting about this.

    The first is that the fact the same name is used for an electoral division over time doesn’t mean it has the same boundaries over time. In the specific case of Calare, the whole northern part of the current division (around Mudgee) was not part of Calare when it had a Labor member, nor when Peter Andren was the member. Whether this makes it easier or harder for the Nationals to hold, I don’t know; but it must make a difference and reduce the relevance of the longer-ago history.

    The second is that electoral divisions (like everything else) change even when their boundaries don’t change. The demographics of Orange and Bathurst, and all the other places included within the division, have changed since Peter Andren was the member, and even more so since David Simmons was the Labor member. Again, I don’t know whether those changes would have made it easier or harder for the Nationals to hold, but again the difference they make reduces the relevance of the longer-ago history.

    I don’t mean that the history is utterly irrelevant–it isn’t–but that it’s important to be careful about how much weight you attach to it.

    The size of the margin for the Nationals at the 2019 election makes it very unlikely that Labor will win it at the 2022 election, and earlier history, although not utterly irrelevant, carries less weight than this basic fact. However, under a system of compulsory preferential voting, the bigger the margin for the Nationals (or the Liberals) over Labor, the easier it is for a popular independent (or minor-party candidate) to win (it’s still not easy, but it’s not as hard as it is in a division where both Labor and the Coalition have big shares of the vote).

  27. J-D, + 1 to “I don’t mean that the history is utterly irrelevant–it isn’t–but that it’s important to be careful about how much weight you attach to it”. Agreed.

    Calare boundaries have been changed and changed again – back to prior I think. I’m not too concerned about boundaries.

    I’m more concerned about One Nation (Orwellian – wonder if Pauline gets it) went from 9% to 16% State elections. And now SFF, and UAP playing with ignorance and emotions. And preferences.

    And local “news”!

    And locals being out priced and replaced by Airbnb style tourism. And never ending coal, silver mine expansion and water.

  28. ! “75% of children and adolescents had serologic evidence of previous infection with SARS-CoV-2”

    From:
    “NO COVID COHORT

    “What we know about why some people never get covid

    “Americans who haven’t had covid-19 are now officially in the minority. A study published this week from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) found that 58% of randomly selected blood samples from adults contained antibodies indicating that they had previously been infected with the virus; among children, that rate was 75%.

    “What is different about that minority of people that hasn’t yet gotten infected? 

    https://qz.com/2159984/what-we-know-about-why-some-people-never-get-covid-19/

    Study:abs
    …”As of February 2022, approximately 75% of children and adolescents had serologic evidence of previous infection with SARS-CoV-2, with approximately one third becoming newly seropositive since December 2021. The greatest increases in seroprevalence during September 2021–February 2022, occurred in the age groups with the lowest vaccination coverage; the proportion of the U.S. population fully vaccinated by April 2022 increased with age. ..

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7117e3.htm?s_cid=mm7117e3_w

    Clarke KE, Jones JM, Deng Y, et al. Seroprevalence of Infection-Induced SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies — United States, September 2021–February 2022.
    MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2022;71:606-608.
    DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7117e3external icon

  29. J-D: – “The size of the margin for the Nationals at the 2019 election makes it very unlikely that Labor will win it at the 2022 election…

    IMO, it comes down to what suitable candidates there are available and the policies they represent to reflect the electorate’s best interests. And for enough voters to recognise it.

    If one thinks effective and rapid climate action is the number one issue facing humanity, then IMO the clear choice for the electorate of Calare in the 2022 federal election, based on the evidence I see, is vote 1 & 2 for the two Ks – Kate Hook (Independent) and Kay Nankervis (Greens) – and who gets the first preference is dependent on how one sees the other critical issues are addressed respectively by the two Ks.

    IMO, the other four candidates appear to be ignoring or denying the overwhelming climate science and are advocating for policies that I think will likely contribute to civilisation collapse.

    And IMO, it seems I’m not an outlier: https://climateanalytics.org/publications/2022/australian-election-2022-political-party-and-independent-climate-goals-analysis/

    And from Admiral Chris Barrie (retired) & Ian Dunlop:

    Climate Change, as our greatest security threat, must be given absolute priority in national policy and decision-making, with its risks & uncertainties comprehensively assessed to provide the basis for policy and action – something, astonishingly, that has never been done officially in Australia.

    The first priority, here and globally must be a rapid reduction in carbon emissions, along with drawdown of carbon from the atmosphere, to reach as close to zero emission as possible by 2030. An orderly transition to achieve this outcome is no longer possible. Discontinuity and disruption will be the new normal, which will require flexible planning, adaptation and resilience.

    https://johnmenadue.com/to-the-next-minister-for-climate-change-energy-the-execution-plan-for-climate-mobilisation/

    But I suspect most voting people don’t have a clue about which candidates and political parties represent their best interests. I hope I’m pleasantly surprised after May 21.

  30. I suspect that most people who haven’t caught COVID-19 yet are very careful people who have had all their vaccinations, who still take the pandemic seriously and follow multiple other measures like masking and isolation, even when healthy. In addition, they will often be privileged people (able to do the above things consistently) and just plain lucky people. A few might even have something very special about their immune systems which makes them very good at avoiding COVID-19 infection. But with the virus spread everywhere, most people’s luck is going to run out sooner or later. Probably sooner.

    What is coming next to protect us? Well, NOTHING. That’s right, a big fat NOTHING. There are no more measures coming and no new vaccines. The authorities are completely silent on the matter. Even boosters will disappear or only be offered annually it seems. That won’t be enough for many people and COVID-19 will likely keep mutating at a pace likely to make annual boosters near useless anyway.

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-many-covid-vaccine-boosters-will-we-need/

    “Endless boosting might not be a practical or sustainable strategy, scientists say”

    Okay what is the practical or sustainable strategy? Nothing. All the scientists and authorities are silent on this matter. They don’t have a clue. If they had they would say something. Can’t you hear the deafening silence on this matter? I certainly can.

    Has a single new variant booster been released yet? No. There is nothing new on the horizon so far as I can tell. Are you beginning to think, like me, that they can’t, or won’t, make new variant boosters? What is going on? Well, the clearest answer at the moment is nothing. The authorities are out of ideas and the scientists are out of answers.

    Something could still come unheralded out of left field. I hope it does. But the chances look singularly poor; a 100 to 1 against. We’ve been led down a dead end with no escape. That’s the state of the “live with covid” game at this stage.

  31. Ikon, nasal vaccines soon-ish.

    Dougherty study of “hand” of protein spike. Surely Astra Z & Pfizer will keep in developing, they have the cash and the never ending market.
    *

    Geoff M, agreed Climate #1, yet as I cannot see either of the 2 K’s – Indep or Greens – getting up, primary or via preferences. Do you have a plan B? I understand if you do not want to further detail your vote.

    Maybe as a protest, depending on preference deals, gulp – Labor?

  32. Barry Jones for Calare! “without respecting the interconnectedness of systems” is a fantastic phrase as systems ovelooked by Ian McCauley, and also says Barry Jones “goes well beyond usual criticisms of neoliberalism”. As in…

    BJ “… a retreat from reason; rejection of facts and expertise; the rise of populism, snarling nationalism, tribalism, and conspiracy theories; a fundamentalist revival and hostility to science; a failure of ethical leadership; deepening corruption of democratic processes; profound neglect of the climate-change imperative; and the triumph of vested interests.”.

    And Barry Jones for a debate (im)moderator or press pack journo please.

    Via:
    “Liberty, Fraternity and – what was the other word?”

    “That’s the title of Barry Jones’ Jim Carlton Integrity Lecture 2022 [link]. It’s about how equality has dropped off the Australian political agenda this century, and the importance of putting it back on.

    “He goes well beyond usual criticisms of neoliberalism. He explores the public ideas that have seen the enlightenment project come under sustained attack:

    “… a retreat from reason; rejection of facts and expertise; the rise of populism, snarling nationalism, tribalism, and conspiracy theories; a fundamentalist revival and hostility to science; a failure of ethical leadership; deepening corruption of democratic processes; profound neglect of the climate-change imperative; and the triumph of vested interests.”

    “This is what happens when we drop fraternité and égalité from the agenda but leave liberté in central place. He lists 6 political perversions of “freedom”, including the freedom to make stuff up in political argument and to deny the reality and threat of climate change.

    He goes into the various dimensions of inequality

    implicitly criticizes the way governments, universities and policy advocates classify and categorize policy areas, without respecting the interconnectedness of systems.
    http://ianmcauley.com/saturdays/sat220507/week22050705.html

  33. J-D: – “The size of the margin for the Nationals at the 2019 election makes it very unlikely that Labor will win it at the 2022 election…”

    IMO, it comes down to what suitable candidates there are available and the policies they represent to reflect the electorate’s best interests. And for enough voters to recognise it.

    Either your comment is intended as a response to mine or it isn’t. If it isn’t intended as a response to mine, then the obvious effect of quoting my comment at the beginning of yours is to generate confusion, and I don’t know why you’d want to do that.

    Interpreting your comment as a response to mine, it is theoretically accurate to suggest that Labor can win any seat with a suitable candidate if it can attract the support of enough voters, but that makes no difference to the practical point I was making, that the practical chance of a Labor victory varies with the margin at the 2019 election, and that in Calare the margin for the Nationals at the 2019 election makes a Labor victory in 2022 very unlikely.

    In theory voters are free at each election to make a decision about how to vote based on an entirely fresh assessment of candidates and of policies and completely unrelated to how they voted at previous elections. In practice anybody who wants to estimate likely outcomes (as opposed to theoretical possibilities) would be a fool to ignore past patterns.

    In conclusion, two points: (1) as I mentioned in my earlier comment, although the margin in Calare at the last election makes it one of the more unlikely seats for Labor to win, it also makes Calare one of the less unlikely seats for an independent candidate to win; (2) I want to move to theory, because everything works in theory.

  34. J-D: – “Either your comment is intended as a response to mine or it isn’t.

    It was intended for you (and others).

    IMO, four of the Calare candidates:
    * Andrew Gee (the Nationals)
    * Sarah Elliot (Australian Labor Party)
    * Stacey Whittaker (Pauline Hanson’s One Nation)
    * Adam Jannis (United Australia Party)
    “…appear to be either ignoring or denying the overwhelming climate science and are advocating for policies that I think will likely contribute to civilisation collapse.” (per my previous comment)

    I put my question to all the candidates at a public forum – see: https://johnquiggin.com/2022/05/04/message-board-2/comment-page-1/#comment-252652
    And I heard all their responses. Were you there at the same public forum too, J-D?

    I’d suggest civilisation collapse is not in the Calare electorate’s best interests. Or do you think it would be, J-D?

    I’d suggest it requires enough voters in the electorate of Calare to recognise the consequences of returning the Nationals candidate to parliament, or switching to Labor, or PHON, or UAP, and when the time comes to vote, to give their first & second preference to the remaining two candidates – the two Ks – the only two candidates that expressed strong commitment for rapid action on climate change.

    I reiterate: But I suspect most voting people don’t have a clue about which candidates and political parties represent their best interests. I hope I’m pleasantly surprised after May 21.

    I’m puzzled why you would think my earlier comments would “generate confusion”. J-D, perhaps you only looked at the first two paragraphs of my earlier comment?

  35. J-D: – “Either your comment is intended as a response to mine or it isn’t.”
    It was intended for you (and others).

    I’m puzzled why you would think my earlier comments would “generate confusion”. J-D, perhaps you only looked at the first two paragraphs of my earlier comment?

    It’s confusing for you to quote something at the beginning of a comment in which you include nothing relevant to what you just quoted.

    I’m making no other point, one way or the other, about the merits of what you wrote. My only point is that your comment would have made as much or as little sense and had as much or as little value if you hadn’t included the quote.

    You had a choice between the following two options:
    1. include the quote in question at the beginning of your comment’;
    2. post a comment with the same content of your own but without the quote.

    It is your preference for option 1 over option 2 which is mysterious.

  36. I should have remembered to include in my comment the suggestion that if we pursue this further (which I’m happy to do if you want) it would be better to do so in the Sandpit.

  37. J-D, I must irritate you, as I loathe apostrophes and cope with loose grammer & language. I’d still have you read a thesis and be grateful for your comments.

    Re Calare. I cannot find candidate preferences flows. As the pre poll booth is open, I foolishly expected AEC / returning officer to shed some light.

    AEC – “Ahh. No. Try leaflets or party websites.”

    A problem – we need revealed, by postal or prepoll date, inter-party preferences flows.

  38. KT2: – “Re Calare. I cannot find candidate preferences flows.

    You may wish to look at the Oberon Review article headlined Federal election 2022: Calare candidates reveal voting preferences
    https://www.oberonreview.com.au/story/7730917/calare-candidates-preferences-revealed-ahead-of-federal-election/

    IMO, it’s interesting that Kate Hook is the only candidate not providing 2 through 6 preference voting advice for the other candidates. She is leaving it to the voter.
    It’s clear to me who the other candidates see as their biggest electoral threats.

    AEC – “Ahh. No. Try leaflets or party websites.”

    It’s not in the AEC’s remit to provide advice on voting preferences, and that’s how I think it should be.

    A problem – we need revealed, by postal or prepoll date, inter-party preferences flows.

    If political parties are tardy in providing voting preference advice in a timely manner, or making it difficult to find, then I’d suggest that’s their problem.

    For the House of Representatives ballot, only the voter decides their preferences. The voter may follow a particular party’s preference advice, or they may ignore all advice.

  39. COVID-19 (SARS2) is getting worse and worse and worse around the globe and in Australia. Time and again, the minimizers who downplayed the dangers and counseled the deliberate wide-spread infection of “let it rip” and “live with covid” have been proven wrong. There is no living with this virus going forward. There is only;

    (a) wider and wider spread;
    (b) more and more deaths;
    (c) more and more long covid or “long haulers”;
    (d) more and more infectious variants;
    (e) more and more vaccine escape;
    (f) more and more children getting sick and dying;
    (g) more and more hospital / ambulance systems being overwhelmed; and finally
    (h) more and more economic damage.

    There is no living with covid. Under endless spread with immune escape and vaccine escape you will catch covid-19 multiple times. Each time is a chance at death or long covid. Each infection with Covid-19 weakens you. It does not so much induce immunity (it does a little for about 3 weeks to 3 months) as it mainly induces autoimmunity. Autoimmunity means your body starts fighting itself, during and between covid-19 bouts. This is the certain path to invalidity and death, for almost everyone, long term, under a regime of multiple infections.

    Covid-19 is not like any other disease humans have ever seen or had. This is because it is a novel zoonotic pathogen with new features: a new disease from an animal (or animals) and in humans for the first time. Covid-19 has a combined host of seemingly bizarre features never before seen in any one pathogen by humans, nor by the immune systems of human. I will write more when I get time. This is a heads-up. Don’t let up on your Covid-19 avoidance measures. You must ensure you catch it as few times as possible; zero times if possible.

  40. Geoff, thanks for “Oberon Review article headlined Federal election 2022: Calare candidates reveal voting preferences”.

    Andrew Gee has UAP followed by One Nation. Says it all really. The coalition votes for itself first, dog whitles second to support itself, and puts the environment last. Very disappointing.

    “ANDREW GEE-THE NATIONALS [BALLOT POSITION 5]
    PREFERENCES:
    1. Andrew Gee [The Nationals]
    2. Adam Jannis [United Australia Party]
    3. Stacey Whittaker [Pauline Hanson’s One Nation] 
    4. Sarah Elliott [Labor] 
    5. Kate Hook [Independent]
    6. Kay Nankervis [The Greens]”

  41. KT2: – “Andrew Gee has UAP followed by One Nation. Says it all really. The coalition votes for itself first, dog whitles second to support itself, and puts the environment last. Very disappointing.

    Indeed. I’d suggest UAP & PHON are unlikely to get many primary votes, and thus this is a tactic to block more significant threats to him holding his seat.
    IMO, it’s possible Kate Hook and perhaps Labor may get enough primary votes to challenge Gee.

    Kate Hook has been campaigning for months before the election was called. It seems to me she presents well, appears well funded, organised, and supported by a team of volunteers.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-09/kate-hook-independent-challenge-to-nationals/100813988

    I suspect Andrew Gee is worried about holding his seat.

    I’m puzzled why he made public his intention to resign, AFTER he successfully secured funding. Curious.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-26/federal-cabinet-minister-threatens-to-resign-on-eve-of-budget/100941862

    I was surprised to see Gee also attended a community public meeting at the Lithgow Workies on the afternoon of 27 March 2022 concerning the Greenspot/Cleanaway proposal for a Waste-to-Energy facility at the former Wallerawang Power Station site. Apparently he wasn’t (nor was anyone else in particular) specifically invited by the organisers to this meeting that had only a few days prior notice. This is primarily a state issue. Gee voiced his objections to this project. From memory, Kate Hook and Sarah Elliot also attended and made their presence and views known at the meeting.

  42. GM “I suspect Andrew Gee is worried about holding his seat.”

    Perhaps Gee is worried, imo only slightly. PHON local state vote rose from 4 to 9 to 16 last 3 state elections, and now with UAP, and an Independent independent – no formal preferencing directions, preferences will gee up Gee.

    And the Gee antics – games and bravado as a substitute for canvassing and dog whistles I suspect.

    I hope Kate Hook tries again. 3rd times a charm!

  43. You couldn’t make this stuff up.

    Elon Musk says he would allow Donald Trump back on Twitter if he (Musk) gets to own Twitter. Musk is either totally naive or he wants to be Veep.

    For those on Twitter, would you leave Twitter if Musk got sole ownership? I certainly would, reversing a recent rather impulsive decision to go on Twitter.

    So, when the billionaires own all the media, run all the government bodies and own everything else too, what kind of world do we have? Answer, not one worth living in. Furthermore, it won’t be livable, anyway. It will be totally destroyed.

  44. Ikonoclast, thanks for the ‘heads up’.

    As far as I see, there’s not a peep about this in the 2022 election coverage. Whomever gets in will need to face the growing challenges.

    Those who are fully vaccinated reduce their risk of long COVID by about half. Assuming the entire world is vaccinated and doesn’t take precautions, and that the risk of getting long COVID each time one gets COVID is 10%, “to be conservative,” everyone has a 5% chance of getting long COVID each year, Chakravarty says.

    https://fortune.com/2022/05/08/surviving-pandemic-half-the-battle-long-covid-growing-public-health-crisis-could-affect-a-billion-in-just-a-few-years/

    The current population of Australia is 26,046,859 as of Tuesday, May 10, 2022, based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data.

    Basic maths: 5% of 26,046,859 is 1.3+ million people with ‘long-COVID’. EACH YEAR 😨

    I have to wonder whether the current public health policy to manage the COVID threat is based on stupidity/ignorance or is it intentional.

  45. It’s clear. Covid-19 and Long Covid will send some people psychoti3 too.

    “Viral respiratory infections and psychosis: A review of the literature and the implications of COVID-19″

    • Viral respiratory infections are historically associated with psychosis.
    • Viruses likely increase the risk of developing schizophrenia via immune activation.
    • COVID-19 can cause both neuropsychiatric symptoms and massive immune response.
    • Other human coronaviruses have been associated with psychotic disorders.
    • COVID-19 may increase risk for later development of psychotic disorders.

    The sheer prevalence of COVID-19 portends that if even a small portion of those affected develop later psychotic disorders, the psychiatric burden could be enormous.”

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0149763421002104?via%3Dihub#sec0055

    Covid-19 pretty much is the zombie apocalypse virus. Lowered IQ after each serious infection plus psychosis for some. Wow, I bet everyone is glad now that we let Covid-19 rip.

    Plus there is now;

    “WHO alarmed as acute hepatitis outbreak in children rises to 348 cases.” – EuroWeekly.

    There are a lot of BS theories around at the moment that is anything but Covid-19. I predict it will turn out to be Covid-19 or Covid-19 mediated. But let’s wait and see until more real science is done.

    A lot of people who let Covid-19 rip are now committed to denialism that it has any deleterious effects. This is distorting public debate and even the science in some quarters.

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