A new sandpit for long side discussions, conspiracy theories, idees fixes and so on.
To be clear, the sandpit is for regular commenters to pursue points that distract from regular discussion, including conspiracy-theoretic takes on the issues at hand. It’s not meant as a forum for visiting conspiracy theorists, or trolls posing as such.
John Quiggin 
The Reserve Bank of Australia is once more defending the private wealth of the richer Australians at the expense of the net wealth of the majority of Australians. Demonstrating their lack of relevance to ordinary wealth creation, the RBA is using the blunt instrument of monetary policy too much and too heavily. Given that the lagged effect of any interest rate change can be as long as thirteen weeks, making changes only four to five weeks apart is reckless macroeconomic management. Being in the pockets of the rich and powerful means that the RBA cannot see the wood for the trees. The announcement of a review into the RBA is timely. Perhaps they can explain their abandonment of responsible use of monetary policy instruments. But I doubt it.
Gregory J. McKenzie,
I agree. Government and Reserve Bank policies, taken as a whole, make no sense. We have a foot on the accelerator and a foot on the brake at the same time. The foot on the accelerator is the negative gearing policy incentivizing investors to bid up house prices. New Homeowner grants add to this pressure on the accelerator. At the same time, interest rates are being used as a brake to rein in housing investment and house prices. It’s completely illogical.
And this:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/19/nobel-prize-winning-economist-joseph-stiglitz-calls-for-windfall-profits-tax-in-australia
Monkeypox global pandemic on its way. Australia will succumb to it, almost for sure.
This is what happens when your nation and the globe give up on infectious disease control. Welcome to endless concurrent pandemics.
The narrow path to victory for Ukraine
US Congressional Research Service, June 22: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12150https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12150 :
“Russia’s armed forces retain advantages in force size, equipment (specifically artillery and long-range fire), air support, and electronic warfare. Some observers believe Russia’s advantages will probably decrease in time, since Russia’s ability to recruit and train new professional soldiers in sufficient quantities without a national mobilization remains questionable. In contrast, Ukraine is likely to continue to recruit large numbers of personnel. As mentioned, training these new recruits to a sufficient standard is expected to last as a core challenge.”
There is a scenario for Ukrainian victory by Christmas. It’s not the only one and a number of things have to go right that could easily go wrong. Still, it’s not a fairy tale.
Assumption 1: The quality of the Russian army continues to deteriorate under the policy of shadow mobilisation, generating poorly trained cannon fodder with low morale.
Assumption 2: Accurate NATO guns and missiles capable of strikes on ammunition dumps and command centres will continue to restore the balance with more numerous but much less accurate Russian artillery.
Inference: in the short and medium run, the UAF will continue to lose ground slowly in the Donbas, and gain it in Kharkhiv and north of Kherson.
Assumption 3 (the hairiest one): Ukraine has enough recruits to allow parsimonious rotation on the existing combat fronts, and is currently secretly training new mobile forces for an offensive. The new units will no doubt be less skilled than the current front-line force of regulars, reservists ad often experienced territorials. They look certain to be much better, in motivation, equipment, training and leadership than the green new Russian troops they will face, scraped together by subterfuge, coercion and bribery, for an enterprise that is transparently failing to reach its stated and crazy objectives. The major weaknesses are in tanks – NATO allies have so far refused to supply modern main battle tanks like the German Leopard – and close air support, but the Russians are no better off in either.
Assumption 4: Vague Ukrainian announcements and hints of a major counter-offensive in the next few months (before the autumn rains turn the fields to impassable mud) are not propaganda but for real. There are strong economic and political reasons for Ukraine to seek an early decision, before war fatigue sets in, within Ukraine or its external allies.
Inference: before mid-September, Ukraine will launch a major offensive, intended to inflict a large and undeniable defeat on opposing Russian forces. At best, this could lead to the collapse of Russian army morale and/or a military coup in Moscow. Even if it does not lead to this, a significant battle win would shore up the morale of Ukrainian civilians and nervous allies, and weaken Putin’s domestic and international position.
There are four sectors in the fighting, the oblasts of Kherson (west of the Dnieper), Zaporizhe (east of the Dnieper), Donetsk and Kharkhiv. The Donetsk front has been chewed up in the war, has been heavily fortified, and includes many natural obstacles as well. North of Kharkhiv, the Russian army has already been pressed back close to the international border with Russia, leaving no scope for major operations. Both the other two are possible and have strategic attractions. I‘m going for Kherson – the map (below) favours Ukraine more and it would be easier to gain surprise – but that’s just an amateur guess.
And of course the Ukrainians have to win, decisively. Judging by their heroic performance in defence, they will.
PS: The Kherson front
The Dnieper is a major river, about 500m wide at Kherson. All the Russian forces west of it have to be supplied over just three crossings east of Kherson city, the Antonovskiy road bridge, the Antonivka rail bridge and the top of the dam at Nova Khakova. The Russians have a very long exposed flank on the western side, and the meandering Inhulets river is not much of a natural obstacle in the flat countryside. North of the dam, the Dnieper is a very long reservoir, too wide to be bridged. The USA has supplied Ukraine with 16 patrol boats, creating a credible additional threat of commando raids on the eastern side.
PPS First link corrected: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12150
“Language Erodes
19 JULY, 2022
~ JOHN NERST
…
“I can think of “socialism”, which economically speaking has a pretty sharp definition but on the right can mean almost anything in the direction of valuing others or society as a whole over individual rights and self-interest. A review of the book Bringing up Bébé (written by an American woman living in France, describing how the French raise their children), complained about French children being taught “socialism” at an early age. By what I could gather this meant that they’re taught self-restraint. I get how she meant it, I really do, it’s perfectly natural word erosion, but also very far from, and less specific and clear cut than “the workers own the means of production they’re working with”.
“The ~right are also responsible for eroding “Marxism” into meaning “any collectivist conception of society focused on inequalities” and “postmodernism” into meaning “any unconcern for truth and objectivity”. The ~left are similarly responsible for eroding “capitalism” into meaning “each and every way society is not an infinitely wealthy hippie commune”4.
“Intelligent language design
“Language evolves and erodes, with or”…
https://everythingstudies.com/2022/07/19/language-erodes/
PS. A frightening additional reason for Ukraine to make haste. From ISW again (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-19) :
“US officials reported that Russia plans to annex occupied Ukrainian territory as soon as autumn 2022, confirming ISW’s May 2022 assessment. [….] Putin could leverage nuclear threats to deter a Ukrainian counteroffensive into annexed Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts. After annexation, Putin may state, directly or obliquely, that Russian doctrine permitting the use of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory applies to newly annexed territories. Such actions would threaten Ukraine and its partners with nuclear attack if Ukrainian counteroffensives to liberate Russian-occupied territory continue. Putin may believe that the threat or use of nuclear weapons would restore Russian deterrence after his disastrous invasion shattered Russia’s conventional deterrent capabilities, although previous Russian hints at Moscow’s willingness to use nuclear weapons have proven hollow. Ukraine and its Western partners may have a narrowing window of opportunity to support a Ukrainian counteroffensive into occupied Ukrainian territory before the Kremlin annexes that territory.”
Hydrogen cocktail shakers for your techno-optimist fix of the week
Extremely worthwhile Australian research initiative, reported by Bella Peacock in PVMagazine https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/07/19/novel-mechanochemical-breakthrough-for-hydrogen-storage/ :
“Researchers at Deakin’s Institute for Frontier Materials have discovered a new method, “ball milling,” to store gas in a special nanomaterial at room temperature. […] The special ingredient in the ball milling process is boron nitride powder, which is small but has a large amount of surface area for absorption. The boron nitride powder is placed into a ball mill – essentially a grinder containing small stainless-steel balls in a chamber – along with the gases that need separating. As the chamber spins at progressively higher speeds, the collision of the balls with the powder and the wall of the chamber triggers a mechanochemical reaction, resulting in gas being absorbed into the powder, the researchers said. Different types of gases are absorbed into the powdered material at different speeds, meaning they are easily separated from one another through repetition of the process. The boron nitride powder can be re-used multiple times to carry out the same gas separation and storage process again and again.“
This elegant system is claimed to work for hydrogen and other gases, at low temperatures and with high efficiency. So far it’s just a lab demonstration, but will surely have no difficulty in finding risk capital to move up to pilot scale.
I admit I like this invention on aesthetic grounds. Science and technology are linked, but not always in obvious ways. Some complex technology, like semiconductors, depends on equally arcane science. Here we have very sophisticated materials science generating a machine that could perfectly well have been built by say Michael Faraday in 1845 – three years after the first synthesis of boron nitride, a very hard and tough ceramic. The reason Faraday and his contemporaries did not build it is that they didn’t have any theory that would have suggested the idea was worth pursuing. Inventors never just tinker randomly in hopes something will turn up: they explore paths extending what they know already.
PS Survey article by Mateti et al on ball-milling mechanochemistry. It points out that the ancient – indeed Palaeolithic – pestle and mortar have been used for chemistry https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2021/cc/d0cc06581a
JQ, what to do about government ‘corporations’? The market in general, except debt collectors, are less punitive than NSW government and Revenue NSW.
Customers – 10 year olds! Become debt slaves- yay!
(I am disgusted by this Orwellian newspeak and willful blindness. Grrrr)
A dash of unrecignised racism ahead, and mixed ad hom, deservedly so imo…””Additional data released by the Redfern Legal Centre showed that, for the 47,000 fines issued in July, August, and September last year, the local government areas with the largest volume of fines per capita were Brewarrina, Coonamble, Gilgandra, Moree Plains, Walgett, Bourke and Gunnedah. Those LGAs all have significant Indigenous populations.”
Revenue NSW says only 17 unresolved fine actions. Too late. Anyone suicided? Contributed to family breakdown? Foregone food? Providing a gateway to illegal money making activities? Radicallising potential? For a measly amount if revenue. Animal Farm tag warrented. Abive potentials far outweight fines quantum. By 100x financial cost aline. We don’t account for the social cost directly. Which is why NSW Government and Scott Johnson is able to enforce against 10 year olds.
*
Orwell’s NSW Squealer Scott Johnston (A small, white, fat porker who serves as Perottett’s chief commissioner of state revenue) says to ten (10) year old ‘Customers’;
“NSW government suggested children as young as 10 could work off $1,000 Covid fines
“government rejected call by legal groups to replace Covid fines, issued to about 3,000 children, with cautions
…
“The government’s response, seen by the Guardian, rejected the call to replace the fines with cautions.
“The chief commissioner of state revenue told the legal groups that “a general withdrawal of PHO fines issued to children aged 10 to 17 years of age is not supported”.
“The commissioner said Revenue NSW would instead seek to work more closely with vulnerable young people to help them pay off their fines, while also strengthening the review processes for those who are underage and conducting a review of outstanding debt to identify “debt that is uneconomical to pursue”.
“He also suggested children could be put on extended payment plans or work orders to help them pay off the debt.
“Revenue NSW will work with the customer to determine the most appropriate method to resolve the fine, such as an extended payment plan or a Work and Development Order,” the commissioner wrote on 29 June.”
…
“Additional data released by the Redfern Legal Centre showed that, for the 47,000 fines issued in July, August, and September last year, the local government areas with the largest volume of fines per capita were Brewarrina, Coonamble, Gilgandra, Moree Plains, Walgett, Bourke and Gunnedah. Those LGAs all have significant Indigenous populations.
“Ironside said it was “extremely alarming, but not surprising” that police hit communities with high numbers of people facing disadvantage.
“First Nations communities and lower-socioeconomic communities really bore the brunt of Covid-19 policing and fines,” she said.”
…
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/21/nsw-government-suggested-children-as-young-as-10-could-work-off-1000-covid-fines
*
Squealer – A small, white, fat porker who serves as Napoleon’s second-in-command and minister of propaganda, is a collective portrait of the Soviet nomenklatura and journalists, such as of the national daily Pravda (The Truth), able to justify every twist and turn in Stalin’s policy.[16]”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_Farm
*
“Another type of valid ad hominem argument generally only encountered in specialized philosophical usage refers to the dialectical strategy of using the target’s own beliefs and arguments against them, while not agreeing with the validity of those beliefs and arguments.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem
Forgive them, for they know not what they do? Betteridge Law.
James, thanks. I love eureka moments…
” Dr. Srikanth Mateti, said he had to repeat his experiment 20 to 30 times before he could truly believe it himself. “We were so surprised to see this happen, but each time we kept getting the exact same result, it was a eureka moment,” Mateti said.”(PV Mag)
And now appreciate Boron nitride…
“It exists in various crystalline forms that are isoelectronic to a similarly structured carbonlattice. The hexagonal form corresponding to graphite is the most stable and soft among BN polymorphs, and is therefore used as a lubricant and an additive to cosmetic products. The cubic (zincblende aka sphalerite structure) variety analogous to diamond is called c-BN; it is softer than diamond, but its thermal and chemical stability is superior. The rare wurtzite BN modification is similar to lonsdaleite but slightly softer than the cubic form”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boron_nitride
Remember Paul Krugman’s confident claims a year or so back that US inflation was not a concern. A flawed forecast as US inflation is now running at 9% the highest for 40 years. More sensible economists, such as Greg Mankiw, argued that US policies were far too expansionary. Krugman did admit that he was wrong:
Harry,
What use is sound money to people with no money? What about equality? Where’s the rest of your critique? Tax the rich? Stop the subsidies for the rich? Stop the price-gouging and the profit-push inflation?
How’s COVID-19 “let it rip” going? Willing to admit error on that one? Does making everyone sick and stopping production and delivery help with supply?
There’s a whole set of formal and real systems out there, complexly interacting. Focusing on one thing to the exclusion of all else is totally myopic.
Only existential crises deserve that sort of focus, namely Climate Change and the Pandemicene.
We now have three concurrent declared Global Pandemic emergencies:
1. Poliomyelitis.
2. COVID-19.
3. Monkey-Pox.
Anyone seeing where this heading? This is what happens when nations give up on public health and infectious disease control. The societal and economic trajectory is all downhill from here if we stick to current strategies.
There is a way to stop these pandemics but it involves government, public and cooperative action.
For the record, I predict a 4th declared Global Pandemic before the end of 2023. En mass damage to human immune systems by uncontrolled COVID-19 spread is making this almost a certainty, IMHO. Two very likely candidates are Nipah and a new Swine Flu.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210111-what-could-the-next-pandemic-be
The future will be horrendous unless we start acting. Without action, forget climate change worries, you won’t even last that long.
Not only is monkeypox limited to a single, relatively small community, not only is it not very infectious – about as infectious as non-airborne Ebola – not only does it have a low IFR, there is already a vaccine against it that is 85% effective. It’s not the apocalypse, it’s AIDS, except easier to stop, less deadly, and you already have a treatment.
The appropriate strategy is the same as the one with COVID-19: keep living your life, implement sustainable transmission control strategies that aren’t short-termism or unsustainable, use the health system to knock down the IFR. With monkeypox, it’s probably even stoppable, like AIDS is.
All under control. Nothing to see here! <— That's sarcasm, that is.
https://www.monkeypoxmeter.com/
Volkswagen has let go his CEO. While he did not come across as a particular competent or likable person the reason he was kicked out is in all likelyhood that he advocated fast electrification.* He has been replaced by the Porsche CEO, who was a dissenting voice, advocating “efuels”. I´d say that is not good news.
Volkswagen is pretty unique as a company. First, it is huge – the largest well paying employer in the world** (there are numerous Amazons Wal-Marts and the like with more bad payed jobs ). The counterpart Toyota has outsourced a much larger share of production. Second the power structure: The Piech Porsche Family as major holder of voting shares (at least 20 people who have to agree), the Union, the government of lower saxony and managment negotiate things in a very public way.
*Personally i think there is such a thing as a reasonable resistance to electrification timelines, involving very efficient conventional cars. Let´s just say, that is sure not what VW would be up to.
**Maybe Samsung or some big tech company is starting to approach similar numbers, albeit with a much larger share of irregular employment.
hix: – “*Personally i think there is such a thing as a reasonable resistance to electrification timelines, involving very efficient conventional cars.”
How much more efficient would “very efficient conventional cars” be compared with the current fleet of of ICEVs? 5% average reduction in fuel consumption? 10%? What number are you suggesting, hix? Do you know, or are you just ‘hand waving’?
How quickly could these “very efficient conventional cars” be deployed to displace the current global fleet of ICEVs? I’d suggest decades (plural). How does that help with rapidly reducing humanity’s GHG emissions?
Would it make enough difference with accumulating evidence/data indicating declining global petroleum fuel supplies, particularly diesel fuels? See my slides 33 through 47 in a pdf file (10.4 MB) at: https://www.ipcn.nsw.gov.au/resources/pac/media/files/pac/project-submissions/2022/05/mt-pleasant-optimisation-project-ssd-10418/20220708t144208/theclimateenergycrisis20220708.pdf
hix, you refer to “efuels”. Could production of ‘efuels’ ramp-up fast enough in production volumes (and be affordable enough) to offset the likely decline in the global production of petroleum fuels?
The European Commission requested the Group of Chief Scientific Advisors to investigate and report on Novel Carbon Capture and Utilisation Technologies. Their report was published in May 2018, and included:
https://ec.europa.eu/info/research-and-innovation/strategy/support-policy-making/scientific-support-eu-policies/group-chief-scientific-advisors/novel-carbon-capture-and-utilisation-technologies_en
The EC report was more than 4 years ago, but I’d suggest that the thermodynamic constraints haven’t changed.
And how do ‘efuels’ help with rapidly reducing humanity’s GHG emissions?
IMO, these are the inconvenient questions that need to be answered before taking the ‘efuel’ pathway. I think ‘efuels’ could be part of the transport mix, in niche markets only, but it’s unlikely to be economically competitive (and produced in volumes large enough) to threaten the rapidly increasing market for land-based BEVs. I think BEVs have already won the race.
James, how much per kWh to charge your EV at a commercial site? 60c per kWh?
We – society – has the chance to lower carbon emmissions, and change r>g to g>r, and what do we do?
“The Trevor St Baker-backed Evie Networks was the biggest winner from the funding round, awarded $8.85 million to deliver 158 fast charging stations across eight regions in Australia, with project partners Tritium and ActewAGL.”
” The big news, though, is with Ampol, which only recently benefited from a controversial $1 billion federal government bail-out of its Australian oil refinery business, a massive fossil fuel subsidy pitched as a measure to protect national security and keep fuel prices down, but tipped by some analysts to be headed straight to shareholders.”
…
https://thedriven.io/2021/07/30/ampol-to-add-ev-fast-chargers-at-121-petrol-stations-around-australia/
“First Ampol EV charger site goes live and is free until August
…
“After an initial free period, the pricing will be set at 60 cents per kWh; at a similar rate to some Evie Networks and Chargefox 350kW sites.
“It’s great to see another network launch in Australia. The reliability and footprint of the new AmpCharge network will be the key and lead to higher utilisation by EV owners across Australia.”
…
https://thedriven.io/2022/07/21/first-ampol-ev-charger-site-goes-live-and-is-free-until-august/
EU Infrastructure incentives, no usage prices…
“EV charging infrastructure incentives in Europe 2022”
Last updated on April 22, 2022
https://blog.evbox.com/ev-charging-infrastructure-incentives-eu
https://www.reinventingparking.org/2015/06/how-much-does-one-parking-spot-add-to.html?m=1
“How much more efficient would “very efficient conventional cars” be compared with the current fleet of of ICEVs? 5% average reduction in fuel consumption? 10%? What number are you suggesting, hix? Do you know, or are you just ‘hand waving’?”
Suppose from your pov im “just handwaving”, albeit 50% wouldn´t exactly be rocket science considering the fleets of quasi tanks right now.
https://www.spritmonitor.de/de/die_sparsamsten_autos.html
People still drive those old, almost oldtimer small series energy efficiency optimiced vw diesel with 3,6 l / 100km and the average is 7,4 at the moment in Germany.
The claim that it was okay to infect young people (or anyone) with COVID-19 (for the failed herd immunity strategy) is blown out of the water (once again) by these Long Covid results.
It is also the case that by the third COVID-19 infection, people of all ages begin to suffer on average higher rates of morbidity (illness) compared to the first infection. Since being vaccinated and boosted now seems to be only moderately protective against infection and that this protection against infection and bad outcomes wanes very rapidly, these rapid consecutive infections are becoming more common and a real problem.
We are heading for a tsunami of deaths and disabled people in Australia. COVID-19 is already or soon will be the number one cause of death in Australia. This pandemic is now completely out of control and without added controls, new pharmaceutical approaches plus better NPIs, our hospitals will be functionally collapse before the end of this year. This will mean no safe emergency or medical procedures will be available for anyone (except perhaps the super rich).
Deaths from causes other than COVID-19 will skyrocket as all these people will not be able to get safe medical help or even any medical help. Deaths from COVID-19 caught in hospital while trying to get other help will also skyrocket. The Monkey-Pox pandemic will also take off on current indicators. There is currently nothing in place to stop any of these things happening.
So, Australia faces an utter disaster which will rack this nation for decades to come. This is unless we act firmly and act now to eliminate COVID-19 is Australia, prevent Monkey-Pox and re-institute full public health and infectious disease controls in this country. Our spending on medicine and hospitals needs a massive increase. To pay for this we need to tax the rich hard and reduce spending on all non-essentials. Non-essentials include negative gearing, fossil fuel subsidies, big business subsidies in general, stadiums, professional sports, Olympics and other games. Non-essentials also include all luxuries, including entertainment, alcohol, tourism and travel which all need to be taxed hard in a Pigovian fashion.
At the same time as taking action on the new pandemics (plural and with even more coming), we need to take emergency action on climate change and saving Australia’s environment plus assisting people to live in places and ways where they are not subject to recurrent floods and/or bush fires.
We are already in a national emergency and one which will not end for a generation even with the most stringent measures. Without stringent measures we are 100% doomed to total collapse. The question is this. Are we too stupid, corrupt, selfish an greedy to save ourselves and our fellow Australians? So far, it looks like the answer unfortunately is yes.
In the meantime, BOYCOTT every business which is a COVID-spreader business and/or which is a direct climate-destroying business. Mask up, isolate as much as possible consistent with doing the essentials, be fully vaxxed, fight the COVID-19 denialists and spreaders in every forum. Fight the climate destroyers in every forum.
Ikon, see second link re modelling Long Covid in Australia. I definitely do not want to catch Covid again.
Long term effects of Covid19
“More than 50 long-term effects of COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis”
Abstract
“COVID-19 can involve persistence, sequelae, and other medical complications that last weeks to months after initial recovery. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to identify studies assessing the long-term effects of COVID-19. LitCOVID and Embase were searched to identify articles with original data published before the 1st of January 2021, with a minimum of 100 patients. For effects reported in two or more studies, meta-analyses using a random-effects model were performed … A total of 18,251 publications were identified, of which 15 met the inclusion criteria.
“The prevalence of 55 long-term effects was estimated, 21 meta-analyses were performed, and 47,910 patients were included (age 17–87 years). The included studies defined long-COVID as ranging from 14 to 110 days post-viral infection. It was estimated that 80% of the infected patients with SARS-CoV-2 developed one or more long-term symptoms.
“The five most common symptoms were;
– fatigue (58%),
– headache (44%),
– attention disorder (27%),
– hair loss (25%), and
dyspnea (24%).
“Multi-disciplinary teams are crucial to developing preventive measures, rehabilitation techniques, and clinical management strategies with whole-patient perspectives designed to address long COVID-19 care.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95565-8
*
“Modelling the potential acute and post-acute burden of COVID-19 under the Australian border re-opening plan”
2022
Abstract
Background
“Concerns have grown that post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 may affect significant numbers of survivors. However, the analyses used to guide policy-making for Australia’s national and state re-opening plans have not incorporated non-acute illness in their modelling. We, therefore, develop a model by which to estimate the potential acute and post-acute COVID-19 burden using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with the re-opening of Australian borders and the easing of other public health measures, with particular attention to longer-term, post-acute consequences and the potential impact of permanent functional impairment following COVID-19.
….
Results
“Mortality was responsible for 72-74% of the total base case COVID-19 burden. Long COVID and post-intensive care syndrome accounted for at least 19 and 3% of the total base case DALYs respectively. When included in the analysis, potential permanent impairment could contribute to 51-55% of total DALYs lost.
Conclusions
“The impact of Long COVID and potential long-term post-COVID disabilities could contribute substantially to the COVID-19 burden in Australia’s post-vaccination setting. As vaccination coverage increases, the share of COVID-19 burden driven by longer-term morbidity rises relative to mortality. As Australia re-opens, better estimates of the COVID-19 burden can assist with decision-making on pandemic control measures and planning for the healthcare needs of COVID-19 survivors. Our estimates highlight the importance of valuing the morbidity of post-COVID-19 sequelae, above and beyond simple mortality and case statistics.”
https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-022-13169-x
hix: – “People still drive those old, almost oldtimer small series energy efficiency optimiced vw diesel with 3,6 l / 100km and the average is 7,4 at the moment in Germany.”
Thanks for the link. Are these consumption figures fictional or reality?
https://www.transportenvironment.org/discover/mind-gap-why-official-car-fuel-economy-figures-dont-match-reality/
I note that the most fuel efficient vehicles listed in your link use diesel fuel. Global diesel (and gasoil) fuel production has already declined 12% from 2018 to mid-2021 – see my slide 42 (referred in my previous comment). See also slide 47 – if the Hallock model is correct, I’d suggest the fuel efficiency improvements you are indicating is possible won’t be anywhere near adequate – too little, too late. We should leave oil before it leaves us.
You have conveniently ignored the other questions on deployment rates, ‘efuels’, and GHG emissions. I don’t expect you to have the answers, but the answers need to be resolved satisfactorily and quickly if we are to have any chance of minimizing the looming climate and energy crisis.
Meanwhile, BEVs (compared with ICEVs) are already:
* cheaper to operate/maintain;
* more energy efficient – more useful energy delivered to wheels;
* zero tailpipe emissions (particulates, NOx, SOx & GHGs).
I’d suggest the general trend for global petroleum fuel prices, particularly for diesel, will continue to rise. The resale value of ICEVs will likely then plummet as BEVs destroy demand.
Ikonoclast: – “We are heading for a tsunami of deaths and disabled people in Australia. COVID-19 is already or soon will be the number one cause of death in Australia.”
Deaths from COVID-19 in Australia were:
Period _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _Days_ Accumulated Total _ Total for Period _ Average deaths/day
2020, Mar 01 to Dec 31: 306 _ _ _ 909 _ _ _ _ _ 909 _ _ _ _ _ _ 2.97
2021, Jan 01 to Dec 31: 365 _ _ 2,239_ _ _ _ _1,330 _ _ _ _ _ _ 3.64
2022, Jan 01 to Jul 26: 207 _ _ 11,300 _ _ _ _ 9,061 _ _ _ _ _ _43.77
https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-deaths/aus
An average death rate of 43.77/day so far this year translates to 15,977 deaths for the full year – overtaking Dementia, Australia’s second biggest killer in 2019/20. However, the latest 7-day average death rate is around 72/day. That makes it substantially more deadly than Australia’s biggest single killer: ischaemic heart diseases (53.8/day for the year 2019 & 49/day for the year 2020).
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/causes-death-australia/2020
Geoff Miell,
Yep, and we hear about new milestones today. 100 dead from COVID-19 and Qld’s hospital COVID-19 count predicted to hit about a 1,600 peak at the end of August: way higher than this year’s first Qld. wave in January.
This is not living with COVID. This is drowning in COVID.
Meanwhile on the climate front:
No progress at all. But you know, market fundamentalist capitalism is great and will fix everything… if we let it keep destroying the world and us for long enough… apparently.
“COVID Is Evolving Fast. Why Isn’t Our Response to It? Dr. Eric Topol on BA.5, next-gen vaccines, and America’s maddening capitulation to the virus.”
UPDATED JULY 29, 2022
“I recently had a long conversation with Topol about BA.5, why he’s troubled by it, and what the variant and its arrival portend for the future.
…
“Why aren’t these better boosters in the pipeline instead?
“Well, it’s pretty clear that Congress is unwilling to fund a dollar more for COVID. And that’s, of course, the Republicans blocking any COVID bill. “…
…
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/07/ba-5-shows-covid-is-evolving-fast-we-need-to-fight-back.html
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“Operation Nasal Vaccine—Lightning speed to counter COVID-19
ERIC J. TOPOL
AKIKO IWASAKI
SCIENCE IMMUNOLOGY
21 Jul 2022
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciimmunol.add9947
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National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance (NCIRS) Australia
“In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, our policy support team has been closely monitoring publicly available information on COVID-19 vaccine candidates.
“Figures are based on the WHO document Draft landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines and monitoring of clinical trials registries.
– COVID-19 vaccines in phase III clinical trials globally
– COVID-19 vaccines in phase IV post-licensure surveillance globally
– COVID-19 vaccine development in Australia
– COVID-19 vaccine introduction and program planning in Australia
https://www.ncirs.org.au/covid-19/covid-19-vaccine-development-landscape
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“COVID-19 vaccine tracker and landscape
29 July 2022
https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
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