“The cemeteries are full of indispensable people.” In one form or another, this observation has been made many times over the last century or more.
What is true of people is true of nations. In the past 25 years or so it was often claimed (and , admittedly, often denied) that, in the modern world, the United States was the “indispensable nation”. Whatever the rights and wrong of this claim, it has become obvious that, whether we like it or not, the rest of the world will now have to dispense with the US as a defender of democracy, guarantor of global order, or even (as in Margaret Thatcher’s words about Gorbachev) a state we can do business with.
Anyone whose experience of the US began in the last eleven days would have no trouble recognising an archetypal kleptocracy, like Putin’s Russia or Mobutu’s Zaire (with a touch of Mao madness). The boss rakes off billions in tribute while his cronies scramble to please him, put each other down and collect their share of the loot. Regime supporters commit all sorts of crimes with impunity, while opponents are subject to both legal victimisation and threats of extra-legal terror against which they can expect no protection.
In dealing with such a regime, the only strategy is to buy off the boss, or a powerful underling, and hope that they stay bought long enough to deliver on their side of the bargain This approach is politely described as “transactional”, but without the implication that the transaction will necessarily be honoured. Dealing with kleptocrats can be highly profitable, as long as you get in and out quickly enough, but there’s no possibility of “doing business”, either commercial or political, in the ordinary sense of the word.
The problem is that for nearly everyone who matters, the last eleven days seem like an aberration. For decades, the US has been seen as the central pillar of a “rules-based order”, on which assumptions about the world were largely based. That’as true even for critics who pointed out that the rules were drawn up to favor the US, and that the US often breached them without any real consequences. And it’s true even though you can point to precedents for everything Trump had done.
But all that is over, and can’t be restored.
Trump has already withdrawn from, or effectively repudiated, a large set of international commitments (WHO, Paris, NAFTA) and will probably withdraw from NATO before long. He has imposed massive tariffs on neighbours and allies, and threatened to levy punitive taxes on the incomes of companies from countries whose own tax or economic policies he dislikes.
Trump’s declared intention to acquire Greenland by force if necessary might seem like a joke. But it represents a break with international laws against aggressive war going back to the Nuremberg trials and before. Since 1945, aggressors like Putin have almost always pretended that they are engaged in “special military operations” with the objective of protecting minority populations, reversing supposedly illegal coups and so on. Even the German invasion of neutral Belgium in 1914 was framed as a demand for free passage of troops. By contrast, Trump has simply announced that he wants a piece of real estate and will take it by whatever means necessary.
Even in the unlikely event of a free election returning a Democratic president in 2028, none of this can be undone, at least as long as the Republican party remains a serious contender for power. It doesn’t matter what (say) President Whitmer might promise if a junior Trump could come back four years later.
Where to now? In Europe, there’s a three-way division between those who welcome Trump and Musk, those who see the need for an independent policy, and those who want to persist with Atlanticism while they can. The third group, although well represented in the political class, are already among the walking dead. The Trumpists are doing well politically, but most are nowhere near getting the near-majority support seen for Trump. More importantly, they are likely to find out, like many before them, that loyalty is a one-way street with Trump. That leaves the advocates of independence, who know more or less where they would like to end up, but have no real idea how to get there.
The Australian political class is split between aspiring Trumpists like Dutton and the “eyes wide shut” camp, pretending that nothing has changed. In Penny Wong’s words “the alliance is stronger than ever”. That also seemed to be the hope of other Five Eyes[1] members. But Canada has already had a rude awakening with Trump announcing huge tariffs and not even bothering to issue ransom demands (the purported grievance is smuggling of fentanyl), and Elon Musk is busy trying to overthrow the Starmer government in the UK’ Australian politicians focused on AUKUS will sooner or later be getting the message “I am altering the deal, Pray I don’t alter it any further”
I have some thoughts on possible responses, but I’ll let others have a say first, while I try to clarify my ideas.
fn1. The Five Eyes is the arrangement under which the UK, US, Canada, Australia and NZ spy agencies share intelligence, whatever the governments of the day might think about each other.
John Quiggin 
By unilaterally imposing tariffs Trump has torn up NAFTA, which now means that the US is an unreliable and untrustworthy partner who’s word is not worth a brass razoo.
This sets a bad precedent globally, ‘if the US can rescind on any deal so can we’ etc.
Spot on, John, with the exception of the following statement: “Trump’s declared intention to acquire Greenland by force if necessary…it represents a break with international laws against aggressive war going back to the Nuremberg trials and before.”
Actually, since WWII, the US has consistently broken international laws by subverting many governments, including democratically ones, and invading countries. These actions have been extensively documented, e.g.:
Blum W. Killing Hope: U.S. military and C.I.A interventions since World War II. Common Courage Press: Monroe, ME, USA, 2004.
Kinzer S. Overthrow: America’s Century of regime change from Hawaii to Iraq. Times Books: New York, NY, USA, 2007.
O’Rourke LA. Covert Regime Change: America’s secret cold war. Cornell University Press: NY, USA, 2018.
What is different now is that Trump openly asserts in his desires to continue these actions.
Spot on, John, with the exception of the following statement: “Trump’s declared intention to acquire Greenland by force if necessary…it represents a break with international laws against aggressive war going back to the Nuremberg trials and before.”
Actually, since WWII, the US has consistently broken international laws by subverting many governments, including democratically one, and invading countries. These actions have been extensively documented, e.g. in:
Blum W. Killing Hope: U.S. military and C.I.A interventions since World War II. Common Courage Press: Monroe, ME, USA, 2004.
Kinzer S. Overthrow: America’s Century of regime change from Hawaii to Iraq. Times Books: New York, NY, USA, 2007.
O’Rourke LA. Covert Regime Change: America’s secret cold war. Cornell University Press: NY, USA, 2018.
What is different now is that Trump openly asserts in his desires to continue these actions.
Dr Mark Diesendorf
Honorary Associate Professor
Environment & Society Group
School of Humanities & Languages
Faculty of Arts, Design & Architecture
UNSW Sydney
Sydney NSW 2052
Australia
Email: m.diesendorf@unsw.edu.au
University web: https://research.unsw.edu.au/people/associate-professor-mark-diesendorf
Personal web: https://www.markdiesendorf.com/
New book: Mark Diesendorf & Rod Taylor (2023). The Path to a Sustainable Civilisation: Technological, Socioeconomic and Political Change. Palgrave Macmillan. eBook ISBN 978-981-99-0663-5; print ISBN 978-981-99-0662-8. See https://sustainablecivilisation.com/.
Order from https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-99-0663-5
Mark, as I mentioned in the OP, all of these interventions (maybe not Hawaii in C19) were justified by some pretext such as the reversal of a coup, weapons of mass destruction and so on. Also, again with the exception of Hawaii, they typically aimed at regime change rather than actual conquest. This has been true of the US, as with other aggressors.
A military takeover of Greenland would represent something not seen since at least 1945.
Is anyone safe anymore? That’s a serious question. If Dutton wins in Australia, I don’t see any criticism of Trump or Dutton as being safe. I think it will be that bad. Things will turn repressively nasty and dangerous very fast. Even if Dutton does not win, is any critic of Trump safe at any distance? I have my doubts unless obscurity times distance affords the meek and powerless some kind of protection.
The world is globally unsafe now in any case. Climate change is on the brink of a complete runaway process and Trump’s policies pretty much guarantee it. It is hard to see the world economy avoiding a rapid collapse under a widespread tariff war which looks very likely. Does Trump know what a tariff is? Does he know how they work. Does he know the potential effects of widespread tariff war.
In the terms of the “pandemicene” which we have now entered, in my opinion, Trump is making it certain that multiple global pandemics will break out commencing with the USA. As Eric Feigl-Ding has pointed out (excerpts from Threadreader):
Kansas “faces one of the largest TB outbreaks in US history. So far there have been 67 confirmed cases of active TB related to the outbreak.” Kansas has a small population by US standards so this is a big deal. Some of the most famous covid-19 denialists (in denial that it was and is dangerous, scoffed and said if it damaged immune systems we would be seeing an uptick in TB. Well, they forgot or omitted the issue that there is a lead time, sometimes a longish lead time. for such things. It’s happening now. By their own logic they must now admit Covid-19 has damaged human immune systems over swathes of the global population.
The WHO reported back in October 2024:
https://www.who.int/news/item/29-10-2024-tuberculosis-resurges-as-top-infectious-disease-killer
So the resurgence is happening, actually started in 2023 and meets the denialists bar of proof re COVID-19 infection immune damage. If only they were honest and had memories but course they are not and do not.
The US is being almost uniquely positioned to be as vulnerable to the pandemicene as possible. The kleptocrats, science deniers and lunatics are in complete control in the US. This is going to end very badly. The only question is how long things last until they fall apart completely? When the US collapses the whole world gets crushed. It’s not just a sneeze. It’s not just a cold.
It seems blatantly obvious, from Trumps comments and actions, that the US is now more friendly with Russia than with its friendly neighbours, Canada and Mexico.
How Russia obtained this status has been the subject of much speculation.
Roger_f, I have been thinking about that too. It is bizarre. On the face of the tariffs, 20% for Mexico and Canada and 10% for China, the US administration is also now more friendly with China than it is with Canada and Mexico. Of course, the new 10% for China may be added on to pre-existing tariffs so the total sum tariff in that case might indicate otherwise.
Are we seeing the initial natural fondness of kleptocratic dictators for each other or at least for each others’ methods? How long until they fall out? Dictators whose countries are natural competitors seems to fall out sooner or later. Admittedly, the word “natural” is doing a bit of work in those sentences.
I blame Putin and the Murdochs about equally for sending the Americans plumb loco with misinformation, disinformation, anti-science and propaganda. I blame average Americans quite a bit too. I thought they were a bit smarter than that. Clearly, I was wrong.
I am waiting for Prof. J.Q. to make some economic predictions. Will the tariff wars, presuming they become extended in time and geography, create global shortages and global inflation, possibly of most severe kinds? This seems the most likely outcome to me.
I am attempting to batten down my “ship” (house, block and finances) before the storm hits. However, that requires some sort of period of relative calm and equilibrium before the storm. That implies work and expenditure right now or very soon (already in train) to make full and effective battening down possible plus a most pressing need to complete all that before the full storm hits. The time we all have we will be measured in months I think. Maybe even measured in weeks.
Overall, I am speaking of real intensified storms and other catastrophic climate or climate generated events. I am talking of raging pandemics. I am talking of economic and financial storms and catastrophes. This new perfect storm will contain all of these elements. I predict we will see serious and escalating signs and even events related to this in this calendar year.
And after that, it gets worse, as LOTR film Gimli would say.
don’t forget the word dearth
i keep thinking of that image of the globe from the previous trump presidency where he and other leaders, one of which was Saudi, had their hands over different parts of the world.
reminded me of that old Punch one of napoleon and the british bloke with carving knives slicing out various bits.
history never repeats?
Silly me, NAFTA had been previously discarded and a new deal was made between the US, Canada and Mexico. The architect of this new deal was Trump,
https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trumps-united-states-mexico-canada-agreement-delivers-historic-win-american-workers/
Hard to find any disagreement with your latest Guardian piece John re: the need to de-risk our ties to the US.