Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
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John Quiggin 
The apparent impending “Deal” between Iran and the US looks like it will be another strategic defeat for them, something the US has made a habit of since WW2. The sole exception was the Gulf War of 1991-92 where the US was wise enough at least to form a 42-nation coalition and fight with clear and limited war aims. This leaves aside the issue of whether or not even this firstly defensive and then offensive war was justified and necessary in all of its phases.
I write “apparent impending “Deal”” because who could have any confidence in anything coming out of Trump, the WH administration or the Iranian regime? All are equally mendacious all the time.
Certainly, as J.Q. writes here and elsewhere, blue water and mainly capital ship navies using conventional weaponry, even the high-tech stuff, seem relatively useless offensively against littoral boat swarms carrying mines and missiles backed an extensive defensive shore and hinterland bristling with drones and missiles. These are in widely dispersed caves, bunkers and underground tunnels and have dispersed and camouflaged launch sites. One can only think the US failed to properly assess all this at the political-strategic level and at the military-strategic level. Pure hubris and over-confidence.
It’s a huge mess and irretrievable mess. If the Deal goes ahead it likely will be on terms which cement Iran’s ultimate strategic victory after a damaging but surmountable tactical defeat. TACO and his chicken-hawk administration don’t have the intelligence or plain honesty to admit their total incompetence, bungling and final humiliation.
This is if the deal goes ahead. If the deal breaks down, the process of kicking strategic defeat down the road will continue for while. How long is anyone’s guess. The final result will just get worse and worse for the US and the West. There is also the matter of the opportunity cost of failing to help Ukraine properly. That war could have been won with a full focus Western focus if all matters remained conventional.