Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
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John Quiggin 
I have no great insights on the Trump situation. I am, as I said, just sticking out my neck on a prediction. Trump has achieved nothing positive in his first hundred days. He has has not only failed to end the Ukraine War in 1 day one as promised, he has failed to end it in 100 days. He has achieved nothing positive with his threatened tariffs. Indeed, to my knowledge no new tariffs have been levied in the first 100 days. It’s all hot air. His deportations are limited (often immoral or illegal) and have also achieved nothing positive. Here, I am not counting the support of his red-neck rusted-ons as that support is not a real world positive, economically or socially. Also his red-neck, and any other support, seems to be cracking already.
Now, let’s look at his negative achievements. He has emboldened Putin and Russia, abandoned Ukraine and abandoned the whole Western alliance in terms general support and financial and military aid. He has started a tariff war with the whole world and made enemies of everybody in trade terms. He is losing this tariff war / trade war with everybody, especially with China. He is now climbing down while pretending he is not climbing down. However, the damage is done. The rest of the world are reconfiguring their trade to avoid lunatic, unreliable USA. He destabilised the stock market and the US bond market. He wittingly or unwittingly unleased perfect conditions for insider trading. More may come out on that yet. He has put at serious risk the US currency’s status as a reserve currency.
Trump has basically upset 5 billion adults in the world. That’s 8 billion minus non-adults and minus Trump supporters. Gee, I could have just left that at “minus non-adults”. I don’t think you upset that many people and get away with it, especially when this includes all the super-rich people in the world too minus a handful of tech-bros like Musk.
Too much wealth and too many livelihoods have been put into major jeopardy: trillions and billions respectively. All of these people will be working against Trump and Trumpists. Masses of non-Americans are already refusing to trade with, treat with or travel to USA. Meanwhile, Trunp’s domestic rusted-ons are flaking off too as rust flakes do. Trump has plummeted in the polls after 100 days. Trump 2.0 is the most unpopular president in history ahead of the 2nd most unpopular, Trump 1.0. Even polls of Trump supporters are showing declines in his popularity.
All the things Trump has wrecked are slow-burners building to a massive crisis: trade, stability, economy, trust, alliances. The damage he has done already is immense. And when the true costs become apparent to all Americans, Trump supporters or not, his popularity ratings will plumb depths never seen before. As I say, I predict he is finished. Once all the media and monied classes, plus the middle and working classes turn against hims he will have nowhere to turn. How he will finish or be finished I am not sure. Let me think about that one. But I very much doubt a 3rd term for Trump now, by auto-coup of course. I think he has lost so much support now that he cannot conceivably ever execute a coup. Maybe I am right, maybe I am wrong, but I think he’s now the dead cat that didn’t bounce.
Hard data is crucial to understanding the untenable and unsustainable situation Donald Trump (D.T.) has created for US trade and domestic supply.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/busiest-us-ports-see-big-drop-in-chinese-freight-vessel-traffic.html
Key points:
Other articles at the same site:
I just hope this many links are acceptable and go through.
Sigh, the perils of not knowing correct economic terms in context. When I wrote “US trade and domestic supply” above I should have written “US trade and import supply… or the supply of imported goods for consumption and inputs to domestic production.” I think.
Empty shelves, busted businesses (exporters and importers), broken farmers and out-of-work port workers and truckers are going to make a huge dent in, or more like a crumpled mess of, Trump’s support base. The economy and people will soon be suffering Delirium Trumpissimus: a condition characterised by economic paralysis and stirred-up, enraged people.
This is all just a prediction. I could be wrong. But I fail to see how Trump can withstand or escape the ire of very class in America over all this because it will hit almost every American. Surely no leader, especially a foolish, facile, grossly and patently incompetent one can withstand this level of unpopularity. Misdirection by bashing immigrants and “wrong” genders is not going to be remotely sufficient to distract the people from this fiasco. One man’s opinion of course.
Well, I/we hope your prediction pans out Iko. Signs do look encouraging. There seems to be a handful of Dems and independents willing to do the work to educate the American populous on just how bad and evil things are right now. It’s a tragedy that it’s only a handful though.
Oh Canada! Oh Canada!
Warning, a little bit of scatological and expletive humour ahead, but very funny.
The problem Iconoclast is how do the Republicans get rid of Trump. They couldn’t get the numbers to impeach and convict him. They can’t replace him with JD Vance using the 25th amendment as that requires 2/3 of Congress. They probably will stop his crazy use of tariffs, though that will take time, but they won’t be able to stop his tariffs altogether. And even if his tariffs are greatly reduced the damage has already been done as you point out Iconoclast.
so I can’t see the exit strategy.
Surely if there’s enough pushback from their constituencies across the country, they must act? Yes, Trump is pragmatic enough to put out political fires if the metaphorical gun is held close enough to his head, but his underlying greed and self interest (an inherent addiction) will hopefully eventually be exposed. Even to the most blinkered of MAGA’s bandwagon of felons/criminals/right wing/Traitors/Secessionists/ Neo Nazis/ Proud Boys/ so called Christian Fundamentalists/and other Trump mesmerised acolyte zombies.
I tend to look at ongoing matters and ask, “Is the real process, or the set of real processes, sustainable? As clearly stated, I focus on real processes in real systems and pay relatively little attention to formal or notional processes except where the formal and notional processes are being used to direct the real, through humans and their machines acting (ineluctably) as real systems and real agents themselves. I refer here to the proper definitions of real systems and formal systems. I leave people to find these definitions for themselves.
Formal systems or products of formal systems like legal laws, regulations, rules, models and plans are used by real agents, like humans and their automated machines to self- direct, direct other humans and/or direct non-autonomous or autonomous machines (the latter by coded instructions). Where legal laws, regulations, rules models, plans, orders, directions and even original founding assumptions (worst of all) are internally inconsistent and/or in conflict with objective reality and/or grossly non-homomorphic (in a strict modelling sense) with the aspects of physical reality they seek to interact with or direct, then there will be a short term, mid-term or long term failure of the project. When an overall, systemic failure of many systems which humans depend on is likely to be protracted and happen over the mid term or long term, we tend to call the whole process unsustainable.
Trump has multitudes of delusional and false models, lacks of models, and many outright misconceptions and non-comprehensions about how the world works, physically, socially, economically, diplomatically and strategically. Aside from his ability to influence the credulous, bully the weak and conduct seemingly endless scams and grifts, he has utterly no idea how the rest of the world works constructively or how most people, other than the credulous and criminal, work.
The attempt to be a dictator, brook no opposition and take no advice will founder on his monumental ignorance which is leading him into monumental mistakes. He has begun a set of processes which are entirely unsustainable. He is accelerating the already sharp decline of the US into a very rapid and disastrous collapse. It’s completely unworkable and unsustainable. The severe costs and chaos will come due very quickly: well within this term I would say. I will post further on this.
I tend to look at ongoing matters and ask, “Is the real process, or the set of real processes, sustainable?” As clearly stated, I focus on real processes in real systems and pay relatively little attention to formal or notional processes except where the formal and notional processes are being used to direct the real, through humans and their machines acting (ineluctably) as real systems and real agents themselves. I refer here to the proper definitions of real systems and formal systems. I leave people to find these definitions for themselves.
Formal systems or products of formal systems, like legal laws, regulations, rules models and plans are used by real agents, like humans and their automated machines to self- direct, direct other humans or direct non-autonomous or autonomous machines (the latter by coded instructions). Where legal laws, regulations, rules models, plans, orders, directions and even founding assumptions (worst of all) are internally inconsistent and/or in conflict with objective reality and/or non-homomorphic (in a strict modelling sense) with the aspects of physical reality they seek to interact with or direct, then there will be a short term, mid-term or long term failure of the project. Where the failure is likely to happen mid term or long term we tend to call it unsustainable.
Trump has multitudes of delusional and false models, lacks of models and outright misconceptions and non-comprehensions of how the world works, physically, socially, economically, diplomatically and strategically. Aside from his ability to influence the credulous, bully the weak and conduct seemingly endless scams and grifts, he has utterly no idea how the world of ethical and competent people works.
The attempt to be dictatorial (as long as it lasts) will founder on his ignorance. He has begun a set of processes which are entirely unsustainable. He is accelerating the decline of the US into rapid collapse.
James – I hope you made it through the blackout okay!! I was just reading about Spain’s progress toward green energy. I hope this was just a blip. Sounds like, no one knows the cause yet anyway.
Re the US – we are blessed to have many, many lawyers. Soooo many. And it turns out, we needed them! This thing may go into extra innings, metaphorically. But all is not lost! I don’t think so yet anyway.
People need to wait until a full analysis of the Iberian Peninsula blackout has been completed in the attempt to find causes. Anyone making claims up front is just wildly speculating.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-we-do-and-do-not-know-about-the-blackout-in-spain-and-portugal/
“Brisbane is hosting the 2032 Olympic Games. It will be a disaster for the citizens of Queensland.”
I ran this above contention of mine as a search in Google. The experimental Generative AI (so-called) gave me the usual Gen AI drivel as an answer. Google’s “AI” answers on matters of political economy and economics can only be seen as massaged neoliberal propaganda. It is the usual “balanced” deception which is deeply embedded in the standard business-as-usual assumptions and discourse of neoliberalism. Of course, the answer can be nothing else because it draws heavily on all the voluminous, corporate and politicised propaganda which is pro Olympics.
Here is what is happening and what I predict. The Olympics (and other games, entertainments and cultural event initiatives) are used, under neoliberalism, as tools to prise public lands from public uses and into private hands for development and private profits. That is the purpose of all such large games, entertainments, spectaculars and events in and under neoliberalism. Government and big business work hand in hand to achieve the final goal of the appropriation of public land space, if not for outright private ownership, then for private, for-profit development.
Then there is the handing over of the white elephant to the government (and people) afterwards: after the evanescent and transient Olympics bubble has evaporated: after the circus has left town. We are left with new stadiums (which I predict will be poorly built and will crumble quickly) but with no new hospitals or new housing to speak of. Putting all that Olympics money directly into hospitals and housing would produce a much better longer term result of truly useful infrastructure.
We have seen the intended and now real alienation of public space in the development of the “land grab” strategy on Victoria Park. Premier Crisafulli lied during the election that Victoria Park would not be touched or developed. Immediately after winning the election, he announced it would be developed for the Olympics with a large stadium and much other footprint besides.
From the advanced nature of the working plans, virtual video mock-ups and slick promotion propaganda immediately unveiled at that point, it became clear this plan had been prepared all along, and was well crystallised in board rooms even as Crisafulli lied with his hand on his heart during the election. The Crisafulli team and the corporate actors has been working hand in hand on this plan all along. The next step is to be a new Government Act legislated to void the protections of about 25 existing Acts which could be used as bases for legal challenges by concerned citizen groups attempting to protect Victoria Park. The perfidiousness of all this knows no bounds. The neoliberals will stop at nothing. Victoria Park will be utterly destroyed as quiet recreationally useful and ecologically valuable green space. The concrete jungle expands, corporate profits rise and soon after the poor construction all crumbles. That will be the result.
Queensland was already suffering a severe shortage of qualified tradespeople before the announcement of this full and overblown Olympics development project. When Olympic projects come on stream, trade and materials costs will skyrocket even more. They are already inflating very rapidly and have been doing so for some time: but you ain’t seen nothing yet.
One side effect will be that all other construction and maintenance in Qld, will be become virtually impossible to afford or execute for all other people living in the real world outside the Olympic bubble. I am predicting a disastrous impossibility for other businesses, homeowners etc. to get any maintenance and repair work, let along improvement or hardening work, done on their properties until after 2032 at least. The authorities and corporations will be scrambling until the last minute to get the Olympic venues finished. I strongly suspect they may well fail in significant respects and try to cover it up. Nobody else will be able to get any trade and construction workers in Qld or maybe even in Australia or if they can in some limited cases, the costs will be well above what any average or even 90 percentile householder could afford.
Heaven forbid that a serious storm or cyclone rips off 10,000 or even 5,000 roofs in S.E. Qld in the next decade, or ever for that matter. I will predict right now, if that happens, those roofs will NEVER get replaced before the houses are totally ruined, along with their owners. The corporates and slum lords will love it, at first. They will snap up the cheap land, bulldoze the land, expel the homeless (from everywhere in the metro limits) and build cheap stuff (if they can build at all) for rapid sale and which will crumble and fall down within 10 years. This is where we are headed, very rapidly.
I can foresee all this already from the outrageous costs and difficulty in getting any work done at all to maintain and harden my house and property for the coming severe climate challenges. Because of my relatively privileged position I have half a hope as I am already acting right now. Most people have no hope. But if I ever lose a whole roof, for example, I am as done for as anyone.
Most people have no idea how close we are to utter and widespread disaster and chaos.
No comments yet on the Australian Federal election? Extraordinary.
Of course, it is good that the Coalition lost and Dutton lost his seat. No nuclear power stations, thank goodness. Other issues are;
(1) Labor landslide. That’s not really good once we unpack what it means.
(2) Greens failure. Why are the Greens on the nose?
(3) Teals remain irrelevant except that they take Coalition seats which is handy.
Not all will agree with some or all what I am saying. Overall however, the populace has still not realised how dire climate change is going to be, so very soon, and how dire our housing and health crises are. The policies needed are still not forthcoming from Labor who are really the Neoliberal Slightly Light Party. The Coalition is the Neoliberal Heavy Party.
In summary, the policies we need to save Australia will never be enacted while the neoliberal light illusion of “she’ll be right, just like this, mate” is maintained. Therefore we will soon plunge into major crises in health and housing with a skyrocketing burden of illness and death and skyrocketing crises in infrastructure destruction and decay, in housing, in crime and disintegration of social cohesion. Current trends are completely unsustainable. We are on a course straight for catastrophic crises. Meanwhile, we waste masses of our resources on useless stuff and an orgy of consumer indulgences. Stadiums of the damned.
As Dylan wrote:
“Trouble in the city, trouble on the farm
You got your rabbit’s foot, you got your good-luck charm
But they can’t help you none when there’s trouble.
Trouble in the water, trouble in the air
Go all the way to the other side of the world, you’ll find trouble there
Revolution even ain’t no solution for trouble.
Drought and starvation, packaging of the soul
Persecution, execution, governments out of control
You can see the writing on the wall inviting trouble.
Put your ear to the train tracks, put your ear to the ground
You ever feel like you’re never alone even when there’s nobody else around ?
Since the beginning of the universe man’s been cursed by trouble.
Nightclubs of the broken-hearted, stadiums of the damned
Legislature, perverted nature, doors that are rudely slammed
Look into infinity, all you see is trouble.
Trouble
Trouble, trouble, trouble
Nothing but trouble.” – Bob Dylan.
(Chorus only reproduced once here, at the end.