As usual before the first Tuesday in November, Australians are closely studying the papers, trying to predict the winner in tomorrow’s race, and planning the well-lubricated parties that are essential as we wait for the results. A critical question here, and one that has been the subject of vigorous debate, is whether betting markets are efficient predictors. While some have argued strongly in favor of the markets recently, long-standing Australian tradition holds that they are utterly unreliable. There’s also a lot of debate about whether the whole turnout may be affected by the weather, and if so, in whose favour.

The level of interest is so high that the event is almost impossible to avoid. Even those who are completely apathetic have found it easier to pick an allegiance at random than to admit to not caring one way or the other.

Work will stop around the nation as we try to digest the results, and the champagne. Victorians, who take all matters of this kind more seriously than other Australians, will take the entire day off.

Update 2/11 A triumph for the betting markets, as the favorite Makybe Diva came home on the inside, the first mare to win two successive Cups. I managed a successful arbitrage on the office Calcutta buying the favorite for $25 in a pool of over $150, as opposed to market odds of 5/1 or less.

fn1. This is mainly intended as a mild leg-pull for the international audience at CT, but I thought I’d post it here as well.

With the recent emergence of stories about the looting of high explosives and pre-1991 chemical weapons from UN-secured sites, I’d like to remind everyon that this was not simply the result of negligence or inadequate numbers of troops. The Coalition forces explicitly encouraged looting. While the war was still continuing, I noted a report in The Times (4 April 2003), saying that the British were encouraging looters. The report said

The British view is that the sight of local youths dismantling the offices and barracks of a regime they used to fear shows they have confidence that Saddam Hussains henchmen will not be returning to these towns in southern Iraq.

One senior British officer said: We believe this sends a powerful message that the old guard is truly finished.

My London Times link is broken, but the report is reproduced, with attribution in the Daily TImes of Pakistan . As far as I know, there was no denial of this report at the time. Although the US forces aren’t mentioned in this report, it’s clear they were equally supportive of looting, if not more so.

As the various UN officials quoted in the story observe, once you’ve started encouraging looting, it’s going to be difficult to stop, especially in a situation where neither the troops nor their commanders had any idea about what was where. The one crucial site that was secured immediately was, of course, the Oil Ministry.

It’s time for the Monday message board, where you are invited to post your thoughts on any topic. Civilised discussion and no coarse language please. Feel free to give predictions and comments on the US election.

It’s time for the Monday message board, where you are invited to post your thoughts on any topic. Civilised discussion and no coarse language please.

Since some readers want to debate these issues more or less continuously, I’m putting up a special-purpose post covering all issues related to the war on terrorism and the Howard doctrine (whatever you think it is) and also on Genetically Modified crops. Maybe there will be some cross-fertilisation or other exchange of genetic material.

For the record, my view on Iraq is that elections must go ahead in January come what may, and that the occupation forces should be withdrawn as soon as possible thereafter. On GM foods I favor stringent safety testing and compulsory labelling, and would like to see more effort put into developing products that would actually benefit people in poor countries and less into political point-scoring.

Having set this thread up, I’ll keep it running as long as needed, and will move or delete comments on these topics from posts on other issues.

It’s time for the Monday message board, where you are invited to post your thoughts on any topic[1]. Civilised discussion and no coarse language please.

fn1. Except for GM foods, the Iraq war and Israel-Palestine. I’ve put up posts specially to accommodate those who want to debate these issues at length. Feel free to comment on whether this a good way to handlle this kind of topic, or to suggest any other innovations you’d like to see on the blog.

In victory or defeat, the sun still shines and the weeks roll on. So, it’s time for the Monday message board. Post your thoughts on any topic. Civilised discussion and no coarse language please.

It’s time for the Monday Message Board, where readers are invited to post their thoughts on any topic (civilised discussion and no coarse language, please). There will be plenty of posts from me on the election, and plenty of room for discussion, so I’d encourage Message Board comments on other issues.

It’s time for the Monday Message Board, where readers are invited to post their thoughts on any topic (civilised discussion and no coarse language, please). There will be plenty of posts from me on the election, and plenty of room for discussion, so I’d encourage Message Board comments on other issues.

It’s time for the Monday Message Board, where readers are invited to post their thoughts on any topic (civilised discussion and no coarse language, please). There will be plenty of posts from me on the election, and plenty of room for discussion, so I’d encourage Message Board comments on other issues.