It’s time, once again, for the Monday message board, where you are invited to post your thoughts on any topic. Civilised discussion and no coarse language, please. My suggested discussion starter is that hardy perennial: What does Christmas mean to you ?

Following last week’s stuffup, when I thought I had posted, but didn’t, this purportedly regular feature is back.

It’s your chance to make comments on any topic of your choosing, to be written and read at the leisurely pace of the weekend. I welcome pieces a little longer than the usual comments, but not full-length essays. If you want to draw attention to something longer, try an extract or summary with a link. As usual, civilised discussion and no coarse language.

It’s time, once again, for the Monday message board, where you are invited to post your thoughts on any topic. Civilised discussion and no coarse language please.

It’s time, once again, for the Monday message board, where you are invited to post your thoughts on any topic. Civilised discussion and no coarse language please.

This is a chance to make comments on any topic of your choosing, to be written and read at the leisurely pace of the weekend. I’d welcome pieces a little longer than the usual comments, but not full-length essays. If you want to draw attention to something longer, try an extract or summary with a link. As usual, civilised discussion and no coarse language.

I’m already getting polite reminders that it’s time for the Monday message board, where you are invited to post your thoughts on any topic. Civilised discussion and no coarse language please.

This is your chance to make comments on any topic of your choosing, to be written and read at the leisurely pace of the weekend. I welcome pieces a little longer than the usual comments, but not full-length essays. If you want to draw attention to something longer, try an extract or summary with a link. As usual, civilised discussion and no coarse language.

It’s time for the Monday message board, where you are invited to post your thoughts on any topic. Civilised discussion and no coarse language please.

Reader Mark Upcher has suggested that this item be moved to the weekend, when readers might have a bit more free time. In the spirit of free competition, I plan to run both for a while. The weekend board might be a better one for longish, more reflective, pieces.

Early exit polls are showing Kerry ahead in nearly all the swing states – I don’t know how much weight to place on this. Slate is releasing exit polls as they come to hand, and is rather hard to reach as a result. The major networks have agreed not to release exit polls until voting has finished.

A more solid positive indicator is very high turnout, particularly in Democratic precincts.

Good coverage is at myDD or you can tune into the NRO Corner to see what the Bush camp is making of all this.

Access to US sites with any data is getting steadily worse. So I’ll post these numbers leaked to Wonkette – usual caveats apply

FL: 52/48 – KERRY
OH: 52/47 – KERRY
MI: 51/48 – KERRY
PA: 58/42 – KERRY
IA: 50/48 – KERRY
WI: 53/47 – KERRY
MN: 57/42 – KERRY
NH: 58/41 – KERRY
ME: 55/44 – KERRY

NM: 49/49 – TIE

NV: 48/49 – BUSH
CO: 49/50 – BUSH
AR: 45/54 – BUSH
NC: 47/53 – BUSH

For those who haven’t been following obsessively, this means (with the usual kilo of salt) that Kerry is leading in all the main swing states, and some that were seen as leaning to Bush.

Update Rather belatedly, the betting markets are swinging heavily to Kerry – they’re also hard to reach. You can follow updates in this thread at Crooked Timber

The results for Dixville Notch are in !. Bush 19, Kerry 7. In 2000, Bush got 21 to Gore’s 5. There was a similar swing in Hart’s Location. Repeated nationwide, this swing would give Kerry a thumping victory[1].

fn1. As bases for spurious predictions go, I’d rank this one somewhere between the Washington Redskins home games and Ray Fair’s econometric model.