Optus’s triple zero debacle is further proof of the failure of the neoliberal experiment

My latest in The Guardian

The Optus triple zero disaster was a classic failure of neoliberal reform. In place of the single emergency call system that worked in the period before privatisation and liberalisation, we now have multiple networks, which are supposed to connect their calls to Telstra. Optus lobbying earlier this year successfully delayed a proposal(introduced in response to an earlier outage in 2023) for real-time information sharing on such outages.

Instead, calls reporting the most recent failure were directed to offshore call centres, where the operators failed to “escalate” them properly. The days-long delays in working out the extent of the problem reflect a corporate culture where triple zero calls are seen as an inconvenient cost burden rather than a vital community service. It’s the same culture that has seen Optus fined heavily for misleading consumers.

But until the recent spate of failures, telecommunications was seen as one of the increasingly rare sectors where privatisation and competition had produced improved outcomes for consumers. During the era of neoliberalism, the cost of telecommunications has plummeted, while the range of services has expanded massively. Whereas an international phone call cost more than a dollar a minute when telecoms were deregulated in the 1990s, they now cost only a cent or two per minute even on those plans that don’t include unlimited calls. As a result, telecommunications is regularly cited as an area where neoliberal reform has been successful.

A closer look at the record tells a different story. Technological progress in telecommunications produced a steady reduction in prices throughout the 20th century, taking place around the world and regardless of the organisational structure. The shift from analog to digital telecommunications accelerated the process. Telecom Australia, the statutory authority that became Telstra, recorded total factor productivity growth rates as high as 10% per year, remaining profitable while steadily reducing prices.

Optus logo on a corporate building. Optus has faced major scrutiny after multiple deaths occurred during the telco’s triple zero outage last week
Optus claimed live updates on triple-zero outages would impose ‘huge burden’ months before outage

But for the advocates of neoliberal microeconomic reform, this wasn’t enough. They hoped, or rather assumed, that competition would produce both better outcomes for consumers and a more efficient rollout of physical infrastructure. Optus was an artificial creation of the reform process. In return for acquiring the publicly owned satellite network Aussat, Optus was given a regulatory head-start of six years, during which it was the only competitor to Telstra.

The failures emerged early. Seeking to cement their positions before the advent of open competition, Telstra and Optus spent billions rolling out fibre-optic cable networks. But rather than seeking to maximise total coverage, the two networks were virtually parallel, a result that is a standard prediction of economic theory. The rollout stopped when the market was fully opened in 1997, leaving parts of urban Australia with two redundant fibre networks and the rest of the country with none.

The next failure came with the rollout of broadband. Under public ownership, this would have been a relatively straightforward matter. But the newly privatised Telstra played hardball, demanding a system that would cement its monopoly position in fixed-line infrastructure. The end result was the need to return to public ownership with the national broadband network, while paying Telstra handsomely for access to ducts and wires that the public had owned until a few years previously.

Meanwhile the hoped-for competition in mobile telephony has failed to emerge. The near-duopoly created in 1991, with Telstra as the dominant player and Optus playing second fiddle, has endured for more than 30 years. The 2020 decision to allow a merger between the remaining serious competitors, TPG and Vodafone, was an effective admission that no more than three firms could survive. Unsurprisingly, prices have increased significantly since then.

And in crucial respects, three will soon become two. Optus and TPG now share their regional networks, a recognition of the fact that telecommunications infrastructure is a natural monopoly, and that the idea of “facilities-based competition” is an absurdity. If we are to have competition, the best model is that of the NBN. That is, a single wholesale “common carrier”, which allows retailers using its network to compete for customers.

But as we’ve learned with privatised electricity distribution businesses, privately owned monopolies are always looking for ways to increase profits at the expense of consumers. Regulation has proved ineffective, a fact that is unsurprising given the massive imbalance of resources between regulators and the companies they oversee.

The likely outcome of the triple zero disaster will be the addition of some new patches in the regulatory quilt and the ritual defenestration of some senior executives. But what we actually need is a reassessment of the whole neoliberal experiment and an acceleration of the return to public ownership of infrastructure that is already under way.

Billion dollar boondoggle

The Tasmania Plannning Commission has recommended against the proposed Hobart AFL stadium, with a relentless demolition of the economic case put forward by the proponents and their consultant KPMG. You can read their report here , or my own earlier analysis below

A couple of observations on this.

First, this would be a huge opportunity for the Tasmanian Labor party to escape from its self-inflicted wounds and achieve a good policy outcome at the same time. A vote against the stadium would create huge problems for Liberal Premier Rockliff. Potentially, it would create a path to a Labor minority government. This would require willing to dump the absurd refusal of former leader Dean Winter (and the troglodytes in the party machine) to “do deals”. It ought to be obvious by now that, Labor will never again win a majority or find Green and independent willing to give them unconditional support.

Second, a point I’ve made before. If KPMG (or PwC Deloittes or Accenture) is willing to put their name to economically illiterate rubbish like the stadium business case, why should anyone believe them about anything?

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Is Deep Research deep? Is it research?

I’m working on a first draft of a book arguing against pro-natalism (more precisely, that we shouldn’t be concerned about below-replacement fertility). That entails digging into lots of literature with which I’m not very familiar and I’ve started using OpenAI’s Deep Research as a tool.

A typical interaction starts with me asking a question like “Did theorists of the demographic transition expect an eventual equilibrium with stable population”. Deep Research produces a fairly lengthy answer (mostly “Yes” in this case) and based on past interactions, produces references in a format suitable for my bibliographic software (Bookends for Mac, my longstanding favourite, uses .ris). To guard against hallucinations, I get DOI and ISBN codes and locate the references immediately. Then I check the abstracts (for journal articles) or reviews (for books) to confirm that the summary is reasonably accurate.

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If something can’t go on forever, it will stop

My latest in Inside Story

The most striking observation in Dean Spears and Michael Geruso’s new book, After the Spike, is summed up by the cover illustration, which shows a world population rising rapidly to its current eight billion before declining to pre-modern levels and eventually to zero. As the authors observe, this is the inevitable implication of the hypothesis that fertility levels will remain below replacement level indefinitely into the future.

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Stop the free ride: all motorists should pay their way, whatever vehicle they drive

My latest in The Conversation


\A new road charge is looming for electric vehicle drivers, amid reports Treasurer Jim Chalmers is accelerating the policy as part of a broader tax-reform push.

At a forum in Sydney this week, state and federal Treasury officials are reportedly meeting with industry figures and others to progress design of the policy, ahead of next week’s economic reform summit.

Much discussion in favour of the charge assumes drivers of electric and hybrid vehicles don’t “pay their way”, because they are not subject to the fuel excise tax.

This view is based on an economic misconception: that fuel taxes are justified by the need to pay for the construction and maintenance of roads.

This is incorrect. In a properly functioning economic system, fuel taxes should be considered a charge on motorists for the harmful pollution their vehicles generate.

That leaves the problem of paying for roads. To that end, a road-user charge should be applied to all motorists – regardless of the vehicle they drive – so no-one gets a free ride.

Real science from real scientists.

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A traffic jam on highway surrounded by bush.
A road-user charge should be applied to all motorists. NSW government

What is the fuel excise?

The fuel excise in Australia is currently about 51 cents a litre and is rolled into the cost of fuel at the bowser.

Some, such as the Australian Automobile Association claim revenue from the excisepays for roads. But it actually goes into the federal government’s general revenue.

The primary economic function of the fuel tax is that of a charge on motorists for the harmful pollution their vehicles generate.

A man in a black cap and top walks through petrol station.
Fuel excise is rolled into the cost of fuel at the bowser. FLAVIO BRANCALEONE/AAP

Paying the cost of pollution

Vehicles with internal combustion engines – that is, those that run on petrol or diesel – create several types of pollution.

The first is carbon dioxide emissions, which contribute to human-caused climate change. Others include local air pollution from particulates and exhaust pollution as well as noise pollution.

In economic terms, these effects are known as “negative externalities”. They arise when one party makes another party worse off, but doesn’t pay the costs of doing so.

How big are the costs to society imposed by polluting vehicles? Estimates vary widely. But they are almost certainly as large as, or larger than, the revenue generated from fuel excise.

Let’s tease that out.

A litre of petrol weighs about 0.74 kg. But when burned, it generates 2.3 kg of CO₂. That’s because when the fuel is combusted, the carbon combines with heavier oxygen atoms.

Before the re-election of United States President Donald Trump, the nation’s Environmental Protection Agency estimated the social cost of carbon dioxideemissions at about US$190 (A$292) per metric tonne.

So in Australian terms, that means CO₂ emissions from burning petrol costs about 67 cents a litre, more than the current excise of 51 cents per litre.

Even using a more conservative estimate of US$80 a metric tonne, CO₂ emissions generate costs of around 28 cents a litre, more than half the fuel excise.

A spotlight on health impacts

Motor vehicles are a major cause of air pollution. Air pollution is causally linked to six diseases:

  • coronary heart disease
  • chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)
  • stroke
  • type 2 diabetes
  • lung cancer
  • lower respiratory infections.

Estimates of the deaths associated with air pollution in Australia range from 3,200 to more than 4,200 a year.

Even the lower end of that range is far more than the roughly 1,200 lives lost in car crashes annually.

University of Melbourne analysis in 2023 landed at an even higher figure. It suggested vehicle emissions alone may be responsible for more than 11,000 premature deaths in adults in Australia a year.

Putting a dollar value on life and health is difficult – but necessary for good policy making.

The usual approach is to examine the “statistical” reduction in deaths for a given policy measure. For example, a policy measure that eliminates a hazard faced by 1,000 people, reducing death risk by 1 percentage point, would save ten statistical lives.

The Australian government ascribes a value of $5.7 million per (statistical) life lost or saved. So, hypothetically, a saving of 2,000 lives a year would yield a benefit of more than $10 billion.

This is more than half the revenue collected in fuel excise each year.

A woman wearing a mask walks out of a hospital.
Putting a dollar value on life and health is difficult – but necessary for good policy making. DIEGO FEDELE/AAP

The best road forward

Given the harms caused by traditional vehicles, society should welcome the decline in fuel excise revenue caused by the transition to EVs – in the same way we should welcome declining revenue from cigarette taxes.

If we assume fuel excise pays for pollution costs, then who is paying for roads?

The cost of roads goes far beyond construction and maintenance. The capital and land allocated to roads represents a huge investment, on which the public, as a whole, receives zero return.

Vehicle registration fees make only a modest contribution to road costs. That’s why all motorists should pay a road-user charge.

The payment should be based on a combination of vehicle mass and distance travelled. That’s because damage to roads is overwhelmingly caused by heavy vehicles.

Then comes the question of Australia’s emissions reduction. The switch to electric vehicles in Australia is going much too slowly. A road user charge targeting only electric and hybrid vehicles would be a grave mistake, slowing the uptake further.

Mitigating the productivity damage from Covid-19: the case for improved ventilation standards

I wrote this for the Cleaner Air Collective, who used it as an input to their submission to the Productivity Roundtable

Cleaner Air Submission here

Given the purpose of the exercise, the discussion is framed in terms of productivity though many of the issues are broader

Covid-19 is a serious economic problem for Australia, not only as a major cause of death, but because of serious impacts in productivity.

Although most Covid-19 deaths occur among people over 80, there were over 200 deaths from Covid among people aged 40-64. This is a mortality rate comparable to that of road trauma (377 deaths in this age group in 2022) As of 2023, excess mortality remained high at 5 per cent

With the effective abandonment of most forms of reporting, it is hard to assess the prevalence and impact of Covid-related morbidity. However, there is substantial global evidence of increased worker absenteeism associated with both acute Covid-cases and post-Covid conditions (long Covid). Evidence also suggests cumulative damage to various organs associated with repeated infection.

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A billion people would be plenty to sustain civilisation …

… as long as they are healthy, well fed and well educated

Much of the panic about falling birth rates can be dispelled once we realise that (barring catastrophe) there will almost certainly be more people alive in 2100 than there were in 2000. But what about the distant future? Dean Spears, co-author of After the Spike has kindly provided me with projections showing that with likely declines in fertility the world population will decline by half each century after 2100, reaching one billion around 2400. Would that be too few to sustain a modern civilisation ?


We can answer this pretty easily from past experience. In the second half of 20th century, the modern economy consisted of the member countries of the Organization For Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD). Originally including the countries of Western Europe and North America, and soon extended to include Australia and Japan, the OECD countries were responsible for the great majority of the global industrial economy, including manufacturing, modern services, and technological innovation.

Except for some purchases of raw materials from the “Global South”, produced by a relatively small part of the labour force, the OECD, taken as a whole, was self-sufficient in nearly everything required for a modern economy. So, the population of the OECD in the second half of last century provides an upper bound to the number of humans needed to sustain such an economy. That number did not reach one billion until 1980.

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