Category: Uncategorized

When is a record not a record?

John Quiggin20 Comments

It’s been  cold here in Brisbane for the last few days, at least by our subtropical standards, with overnight minimums of 6 degrees in the city, and negative temperatures in  towns like Stanthorpe in the nearby Granite Belt. That occasioned lots of news coverage, with the observation that this was the coldest temperature we’ve had since 2014 and one of the coldest since 2000. The same was true for much of Eastern Australia. Melbourne had its coldest morning in several years, and  a couple of towns in NSW had the lowest minimum for several decades.

All of these are “records” in the trivial sense that we record the temperature every day, but none of them are records in the commonly used sense of “lowest (or highest) value in the relevant record”. That didn’t stop the usual denialist suspects claiming a RECORD (all caps in original) and evidence of global cooling. The Daily Mail  claimed “Australia’s east coast shivers through its coldest EVER morning” even though the sub-headlines made it clear this wasn’t true.

What’s striking here is that the same people who are willing to claim that the Bureau of Meteorology is part of a world-wide warmist conspiracy to doctor climate records are eagerly credulous about any piece of data that suits their case. Next time we get record heat, the conspiracy theories will be wheeled out again, but for now the Bureau is an unquestionable source of scientific evidence.

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Grattan goes denialist

John Quiggin19 Comments

Reading the reactions to the incoherent report on electricity pricing from the ACCC, I was struck by this quote from Tony Wood of the Grattan Institute, writing in the Oz 

Australians need energy policy that is driven by neither green evangelism for renewables nor a deep-seated fear to protect the role of coal for baseload power.

“Green evangelism” is rhetoric straight out of the denialist camp, associated with the bogus claim that climate change is not science but a religion   The content of the piece bears this out. Wood opposes any form of subsidy for renewables and (by omission) any price on carbon emissions. He advocates a policy that is “the policy is indifferent to the tech­nology mix, whether new-build or the extension of the operating life of an existing, newer coal-fired plant.”

This is centrism at its worst. Faced with a choice between an evidence-based response to climate change and culture-war proposals to actively subsidise the destruction of the global environment, Grattan has gone for the “middle course” of doing nothing whatsoever about climate change.

 

The LDP: Trumpism in Australia

John Quiggin27 Comments

The reaction to Senator David Leyonhjelm’s recent attacks on women have mostly focused on Leyonhjelm personally. If he were a private citizen or an independent member of Parliament, that would make sense, and would lead to the conclusion that best thing to do is to ignore him.

In fact, however, Leyonhjelm is the most senior elected representative of the Liberal Democratic Party, a national political party. His statements on the matter give his position as Parliamentary leader of the party and appear in the media section of the LDP website. They may be taken as official statements of the LDP position.

Leyonhjelm’s statements are entirely consistent with the general position of the LDP which may be summarized as “well off white men should be able to say and do whatever they like with no adverse consequences”. That’s pretty much the essence of Trumpism.

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Economics in Two Lessons, Chapter 12

John Quiggin1 Comment

Thanks to everyone who commented on the first eleven chapters of my book-in-progress, <em>Economics in Two Lessons</em>.

Here’s a draft of <a href=”https://www.dropbox.com/s/seojgihd4mrkcrq/QuigginChapter%2012Draft.pdf?dl=0″>Chapter 12 on Predistribution</a>

Comments, criticism and praise are welcome.

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Earlier draft chapters are available. These aren’t final versions, as I am now editing the entire manuscript, but you can read them to see where the book is coming from.

<a href=”https://www.dropbox.com/s/ilqwwru858rihrl/QuigginTwoLessonsDraftTOC.pdf?dl=0″>Table of Contents</a>
<a href=”https://www.dropbox.com/s/d8x2dp5sbxi70er/QuigginTwoLessonsIntroductionRevised.pdf?dl=0″>Introduction</a&gt;.
<a href=”https://www.dropbox.com/s/ao6s4jaejbrzap1/QuigginChapter1Revised.pdf?dl=0″>Chapter 1: What is opportunity cost?</a>
<a href=”https://www.dropbox.com/s/r1k8iqcpeboosbh/QuigginChapter2Revised.pdf?dl=0″>Chapter 2: Markets, opportunity cost and equilibrium</a>
<a href=”https://www.dropbox.com/s/x4umnbwj4kmihd6/QuigginChapter3Revised.pdf?dl=0″>Chapter 3:Time, information and uncertainty
</a><a href=”https://www.dropbox.com/s/s2fkdwmbmje6fdo/QuigginChapter4Draft.pdf?dl=0″>Chapter 4:Lesson 1: Applications</a>.
<a href=”https://www.dropbox.com/s/pmml30mkozzj9j5/QuigginChapter5Draft.pdf?dl=0″>Chapter 5: Lesson 1 and economic policy</a>.
<a href=”https://www.dropbox.com/s/44bvl01adcv2fte/QuigginChapter6Draft.pdf?dl=0″>Chapter 6: The opportunity cost of destruction</a>
<a href=”https://www.dropbox.com/s/23d7veamse5wnde/QuigginChapter7Draft.pdf?dl=0″>Chapter 7: Property rights, and income distribution</a>
<a href=”https://www.dropbox.com/s/eoc19utnfhvtk47/QuigginChapter8Draft.pdf?dl=0″>Chapter 8:Unemployment</a>
<a href=”https://www.dropbox.com/s/ovvuu5kzgc7f33t/QuigginChapter9Draft.pdf?dl=0″>Chapter 9: Market Failure</a>
<a href=”https://www.dropbox.com/s/00menn8garip6y3/QuigginChapter10Draft.pdf?dl=0″>Chapter 10: Market failure -Externalities and pollution.</a>
<a href=”https://www.dropbox.com/s/7815grsyp24nfuf/QuigginChapter%2011%20%20Market%20failure.pdf?dl=0″>Chapter 11: Market failure: Information, uncertainty and financial markets</a>

Feel free to make further comments on these chapters if you wish.