Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.
Referring back to this 2002 post defining “neoliberalism”, I find the claim that the “The (UK) Conservative party is hovering on the edge of extinction”. That wasn’t one of my more accurate assessments, and I’m bearing it in mind when I look at suggestions that the party is now “facing a defeat so dramatic it may not survive.” (that’s the headline, the actual suggestion is that the future may be one of “long periods of Labour with occasional periods of Conservative governments”
Read More »Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.
Brad DeLong (in a recent post summarising a joint podcast with Noah Smith) walks back his previous suggestion that it was time for neoliberals, among whom he had numbered himself, to pass the baton to “the Left”.
The political basis for this is that 20 or so Senate Republicans have been willing to pass legislation from time to time, rather than shutting down the government altogether. I don’t find this compelling, but I also don’t want to debate the issue.
Rather, I’m interested in the following remark, which crystallized a bunch of thoughts I’ve been having for some time
”How has the left been doing with its baton? Not well at all, for anyone who defines “THE LEFT” to consist of former Bernie staffers who regard Elizabeth Warren as a neoliberal sellout.”
This is a classic, indeed brazen, motte-and-bailey1, in which the hard-to-defend bailey “the Left of the Democratic party (of which Elizabeth Warren is a prominent member) is doing badly” is replaced by the motte “THE LEFT (as represented, in this case, by disgruntled former Bernie staffers) is doing badly”.
The left and THE LEFT: from ChatGPT prompt, “draw an image with two panels, one peaceful with symbols of feminism and environmentalism and the other dynamic and representing the revolutionary left”
Read More »The Conversation asked economists about the budget. I thought the questions poorly framed.
Q: What grade would you give the budget, given Chalmers’ stated objective of “fighting inflation in the near term and then growth in the medium term”? A, B, C, D, E or F
My answer: An exclusive, or even primary, focus on a rapid return to an arbitrary inflation target represents a misconception of the role of fiscal policy.
I decline to offer a rating on this basis.
Considered more generally, I would give the budget a grade of C.
It is essentially a continuation of the policies of the previous Coalition government
Q: Is the budget likely to achieve its aim of getting inflation back within the RBA target band by the end of this year and back to 2.75% by mid next year?
My answer: Again, both the RBA and the government are acting in a way that is inconsistent with the RBA’s official objectives and with the government’s stated objective of sustainable full employment.
Nothing in our economic situation justifies the priority that is being placed on a rapid return to the RBA target range.
I decline to offer a rating
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.
My Budget response from The Conversation
This week’s budget was Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ third and – for practical purposes – final for the current parliamentary term.
Even if the 2025 election is delayed long enough to give Labor another budget, that speech would represent more of an election manifesto than any deliverable legislation.
We are therefore now in a position to assess the Albanese government’s record on public spending and taxation.
Most strikingly, the Albanese government’s electoral strategy has constrained it to do little more than tweak the policy settings it inherited from the previous government, and adopt them as its own.
There’s nothing new about opposition parties campaigning on a “small target” strategy. Howard, Rudd and Abbott all did the same. But on attaining office, those prime ministers all became notably bolder.
In stark contrast, the Albanese government appears to have acted less ambitiously in office than it did when seeking election.
This softness is likely due in part to the size of the commitments Labor made to eliminate any policy differences that could have cost the party votes in the 2022 election.
On the revenue side, Albanese rejected all the revenue-enhancing measures Labor had fruitlessly taken to the 2019 election.
What remained were the massively expensive Stage 3 tax cuts, which ensured the ratio of tax revenue to the size of the economy would shrink over the government’s term in office. This was only exacerbated by a decline in export earnings for coal and iron ore.
The restructuring of the Stage 3 tax cuts – hastily announced in the lead-up to the Dunkley by-election – did make them much less regressive.
But the modified version will only partially offset the the expiry of the low and middle income earners tax offset, and by my calculations will still deliver big gains to the top 40% of earners. More relevantly, at least in the budget context, the cuts’ cost in terms of tax revenue was unchanged.
The government is also constrained on the expenditure side. Albanese’s enthusiastic embrace of the AUKUS agreement commitment has loaded the budget with hundreds of billions of dollars in future commitments, with several billion already allocated in the current budget.
The failure of successive governments to find new sources of funding for the National Disability Insurance Scheme has only added to these difficulties.
Yet despite all these constraints, the government has been unable to resist a few (it hopes) vote-grabbing extravagances. Perhaps the most lavish was the decision to provide federal funding for a new football stadium in Hobart.
More recently, the government announced it would spend a billion dollars to chase the dream of a quantum computer, one of those revolutionary technologies that has been “just over the horizon” for decades.
And of course, the headline item in the current budget, a once-off $300 discount on every household’s energy bills.
Welfare payments again missed out on a boost in this year’s budget. James Ross/AAP
The combination of these constraints with an imperative to deliver budget surpluses means little – if anything – has been put aside to pursue the traditional goals of a Labor government.
Instead, we’ve seen largely symbolic measures puffed up to appear impressive. Most of these are better viewed as adjustments to keep policy set by the previous government on course.
An automatic inflation adjustment for welfare benefits was touted by the prime minister as “the biggest increase to the pension in 30 years”.
But meanwhile, the government has steadfastly resisted pressure to raise Jobseeker benefits to a liveable level, reluctantly squeezing out an extra $20 a week last year (Scott Morrison gave $50).
The Housing Australia Future Fund is presented as a $10 billion program to deliver over 30,000 houses. But it will be delivered as a modest subsidy of just $500 million annually, enough to build perhaps 2,000 modest homes per year. The program has since been overtaken by more extensive action at the state level.
For university students, the government has materially changed the HECS indexation formula. But it has left in place the Job Ready Graduates fee structure, a poorly thought out increase in the cost of degrees in the humanities and other subjects pushed out in the dying days of the Morrison government by Education Minister Dan Tehan.
On top of this, the underfunding of public schools has if anything become worse, with the ambitions of the Gonski program indefinitely deferred.
On health, the government has taken measures to arrest the alarming fall in bulk billing which began under the Morrison government. But it’s yet to return rates to the levels present when it took office.
Rates of bulk billing have steadied, but remain at worrying lows. Dave Hunt/AAP
More ambitious proposals – like free cancer treatment and dental care for pensioners – were abandoned after the 2019 election, and have not resurfaced.
The “three-term” theory pushed by the Albanese government’s supporters was that a solid performance in the first term of office would lay the groundwork for more transformative policies in the (assumed guaranteed) second and third terms.
Leaving aside the fact that a second term no longer appears certain, there seems to be no evidence this is actually happening.
Share John Quiggin’s Blogstack
Read my newsletter
·
11 Comments
| dennis hutchMay 18John, for me Albanese has been a bitter disappointment. Prior to his election I had no real opinion of him; I didn’t know him, he appeared to be a reasonable person. But now, nothing but disgust, his only ambition has been to get re-elected.I get that people thought Shorten lacked charisma, but I’ve always thought it was vastly overrated. I think Australia missed out when he lost, and he lost because of our collective greed. |
| Paul NortonMay 18I get the strong impression that the Albanese Government has made the strategic calculation that it cannot win a public political argument with the Coalition over any except a small set of issues (and then only if its own position is only incrementally different), and so it has decided to refrain from doing anything that would require or bring on such an argument. |
May 11•
Mar 29•
Marc Andreesen’s 1990s version of techno-optimism
Oct 24, 2023•
Jan 12•
Back to the office: a solution in search of a problem
Managers need to recognise that the best way to dissipate authority is to fail in its exercise
Feb 25•
Jul 22, 2022•
Oct 15, 2023•
In defence of effective altruism
Don’t judge an idea by its worst advocates
Nov 21, 2023•
… but naval fans will never admit it
Mar 27•
The war to end war, still going on
Apr 25•
© 2024 John Quiggin
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Substack is the home for great culture
For quite a while I’ve been meaning to write a piece appreciating
Ross Gittins’ 50 year run as Australia’s leading economic journalist.
He’s one of the few who is neither an ideologue nor a recycler of
corporate talking points (no names, no pack drill, but most of my
readers will be able to think of plenty of examples).
This plan was pushed to the top of my agenda when Ross gave an exceptionally generous donation to support my Brissie to the Bay cycle ride in support of MS Queensland. It reminded me of the generosity of spirit Ross has displayed throughout his career.
Ross
started writing economic commentary for the Sydney Morning Herald in
1974, the year I started my undergraduate economics degree at ANU. So,
I’ve been in a position to follow his entire career, which coincides
almost exactly with the rise and fall of the ideology variously called
neoliberalism, market liberalism and economic rationalism.
Back in
the Whitlam era, “economic rationalist” wasn’t the pejorative term it
has now become; in fact, Whitlam saw himself as an economic rationalist.
As I wrote quite a while ago
‘Economic rationalism’
then referred to policy formulation on the basis of reasoned analysis,
as opposed to tradition, emotion and self-interest. With the exception
of support for free trade, there was no presumption in favour of
particular policy positions. The views of the first generation of
economic rationalists were generally in the economic mainstream of the
period — Keynesian in macro terms and supportive of the ‘mixed economy’
in micro terms.
Understood in those terms, Ross was, and remains an economic rationalist. But
During
the period of the Fraser and Hawke governments, both the intellectual
character and the theoretical and policy content of economic rationalism
changed. The critical and sceptical thinking that characterised the
first phase of economic rationalism was gradually replaced by a
dogmatic, indeed, quasi-religious, faith in market forces and the
private sector
Unlike many others, Ross did not
follow this path. Instead, he reacted against it, looking for an
understanding of economics that was more realistic and humane. This has
been a consistent feature of his later writing. Ross has regularly
criticised models of economic behavior based on narrowly defined self
interest and promoted richer models of people’s goals and motivation.
The
other thing I appreciate most about Ross is his willingness to engage
with the academic economics profession, rather than taking talking
points from corporate and bank economists, like so many other economic
journalists. I particularly remember his description of the late Fred
Gruen as a ‘useful economist’, that is, one who made serious
contributions to Australian public policy rather than focusing on
high-status publications in international journals.
I’ve always
aspired to follow in Fred’s footsteps in this regard, though I found it
necessary to do the international journal stuff as well in order to
maintain credibility while pushing leftwing policy views.
More generally, Ross has regularly picked up interesting work by academic economists and explained it to his readers.
Finally,
I’ve always found Ross to be a friendly and supportive person. As I
mentioned already, he demonstrated this again with a very generous
donation to sponsor my Brissie to the Bay ride for MS Queensland.
It’s been a great 50 years for Ross, and I hope for a decade or two more before he, and I, leave the economics scene.
