Close to zero?

John Quiggin46 Comments

In yet another round of the controversy over discounting in the Stern Report, Megan McArdle refers to Stern’s use of “a zero or very-near-zero discount rate”. Similarly Bjorn Lomborg refers to the discount rate as “extremely low” and Arnold Kling complains says that it’s a below-market rate.

So what is the discount rate we are talking about? Stern doesn’t pick a fixed rate but rather picks parameters that determine the discount rate in a given projection. The relevant parameters are the pure rate of time preference (delta) which Stern sets equal to 0.1 and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (eta) which Stern sets equal to 1. The important parameter is eta, which reflects the fact that since people in the future will mostly be richer than us, additional consumption in the future is worth less than additional consumption now.

Given eta = 1, the discount rate is equal to the rate of growth of consumption per person, plus 0.1. A reasonable estimate for the growth rate is 2 per cent, so Stern would have a real discount rate of 2.1 per cent. Allowing for 2.5 per cent inflation, that’s equal to a nominal rate of 4.6 per cent. The US 10-year bond rate, probably the most directly comparable market rate, is currently 4.44 per cent; a bit above its long-run average in real terms. So, Stern’s approach produces a discount rate a little above the real bond rate.

Arguments about discounting are unlikely to be settled any time soon. There’s a strong case for using bond rates as the basis for discounting the future. There are also strong arguments against, largely depending on how you adjust for risk. But to refer to the US bond rate as “near-zero” of “extremely low” seems implausible, and to say it’s below-market is a contradiction in terms. It seems as if these writers have confused the discount rate with the rate of pure time preferences.

Temporal warp

John Quiggin14 Comments

I’m visiting Canberra for a couple of days and stayed last night at Rydges Lakeside Hotel, which is something of a blast from the past for me. My first job, for six weeks after leaving school, was as a porter at the Lakeside, then brand-new and top-of-the-market. Some decades later, we’re both showing our age, and the upmarket place to stay is the Hotel Canberra, which was massively revamped some time in the 80s. An even sharper indication of age (and inflation) – the bill for one night’s stay is the same as the total amount I earned here.

A more minor temporal warp: the downstairs cafe is a bit of a mishmash in terms of decoration, but the main theme is old ad posters from the 20s and 30s. One set is of stage magicians, notably including Houdini. But there’s a ring-in. The Amazing Randi, scourge of Uri Geller and of alleged psychics in general, has managed to inveigle himself into the scene.

What I’ve been reading

John Quiggin3 Comments

The Atrocity Archives by Charles Stross. SF meets horror meets spy thriller (in the drab Deighton mode) as underpaid bureaucrats struggle to stop revenant Nazis loosing an infovorous ice demon on an unsuspecting universe. Those of a certain age will feel right at home by page 3

Logged in, I find myself in a maze of twisty little automounted filesystems, all of them alike.

.

Also The Marketplace of Christianity by Ekelund, Hebert and Tollison, interesting both as an instance of economic imperialism and as part of a growing literature, largely emerging from the US, that treats religion and religiosity as goods, independent of the truth or otherwise of the doctrines being propounded. Oddly enough, this kind of reasoning to be welcome to many religious believers, though not to those who think the issue through. I’m just beginning on Ekelund et al, so more soon on this I hope.

Rudd and Gillard to win

John Quiggin42 Comments

I’m backing Rudd and Gillard to win in Monday’s leadership ballot both in the sense that I think they will win and in the sense that I think they should win.

The remorseless logic of leadership challenges is such as to guarantee the defeat of the incumbent in most cases. By the time there are enough people discontented enough to call on a challenge, the possibility of a convincing win for the incumbent has just about vanished. And anything less leaves them mortally wounded, while the challenger is encouraged to wait for another go.

In this case, Labor can’t afford a mortally wounded leader and there’s no time for a second round. So the logic is that those who are concerned about a win have to vote for the challengers.

As regards the substantive choice, I backed Rudd in 2003 and again in 2005. Since then I’ve only given up more on Beazley. Like lots of others apparently, I turn off as soon as he starts talking, even if I agree with what he’s saying at the time. On the other hand, Rudd has put in a solid performance, and shows some actual signs of thought.

The case for a change is even stronger when you consider the tickets as a whole. Macklin has been invisible as deputy leader (not always a defect in a deputy, but a disaster when the leader is as inchoate as Beazley). Gillard usually has something to say, and can attract attention when she says it.

I don’t know how this will run electorally, but I don’t see any reason Labor should suffer much damage from a change, assuming the losers retire gracefully.

But why aren’t you talking about …

John Quiggin17 Comments

Norman Geras pulls out one of the oldest moves in the Cold War playbook, saying

There are some clever people about who will tell you that responsibility isn’t zero sum: Bush and Blair bear responsibility for what’s now happening in Iraq even if others do too. They only fail to follow through on the ‘others do too’ part of this idea, reserving all their blame, all their ire, all their passion, for… Bush and Blair.

He’s aiming mostly at Chris Bertram, but since I’ve made exactly the same argument, and Geras is using the plural, I’ll respond.

Of course, I’ve never posted a condemnation of terror attacks, noted successes in the struggle against terrorism or matched condemnation of Bush and Blair with the observation that whatever evil has been done in our names, our terrorist enemies have shown that they can and will do worse. Well, only here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and so on.

But this is unlikely to worry Geras. As he would know from his days on the left (and from the parallel experiences of dissidents on the other side of the Iron Curtain), the point being made here is that, unless every criticism of our own government is matched by a ritualistic denunciation of our enemies, taking up at least as much space as the original criticism, it is obvious that you are on the wrong side.

And having made this point, it’s not necessary to examine your own support for policies that have brought death and disaster on hundreds of thousands of innocent people.

Weekend reflections

John Quiggin5 Comments

Weekend Reflections is on again. Please comment on any topic of interest (civilised discussion and no coarse language, please). Feel free to put in contributions more lengthy than for the Monday Message Board or standard comments.

Fun at the Walkleys

John Quiggin38 Comments

My wife alerted me to these Amazing scenes at the Walkley Awards. Stephen Mayne (founder of Crikey) was presenting an award when Glenn Milne (subsequently described by Mayne as “the former Sunday Telegraph political correspondent Glenn Milne, sponsored by Fosters”) rushed on to the state and pushed Mayne over, calling him a disgrace before being dragged off the stage by security shouting insults.

Meanwhile, sticking to more traditional modes of stoush, I have a piece in the latest Walkley magazine criticising the opinion pages of the “quality press” for giving equal time to global warming denialists. Reading it, it’s striking how radically the Australian debate has changed in the time since I wrote the piece (early October). The denialist position has collapsed so completely in Australia that my analysis is primarily of historical interest now, as an example of how the media can be manipulated by notions of ‘balance’.

New on the RSMG blog

John Quiggin1 Comment

Although I haven’t had time to post on the Switkowski report on this blog, Nanni has it covered in a couple of posts over at the RSMG blog, as well as the related topic of carbon trading.

Mark looks at the implications of higher water prices for dairy farmers and concludes that they ‘may not be priced out of the market as some commentators may have thought.

I report some good news for RSMG. We are ranked in the top 20 per cent of economics research institutions in Australia.

Finally, David is starting a discussion paper series. The first and second are on biosecurity and pest management.

Read, enjoy and comment

Hard to believe

John Quiggin54 Comments

Writing in the LA Daily News, in a piece full of harrowing stories of flight from Iraq, Pamela Hartman states

The United States has not liberalized its refugee policy in response to the worsening crisis in Iraq. More than 1 million Iraqi refugees of all religious backgrounds have poured into Lebanon, Syria and Jordan. In fiscal year 2006, just 202 Iraqi refugees were resettled in the United States.

The 1 million figure is broadly consistent with other estimates I’ve seen, but there’s no source for the amazingly low figure of 202 refugees. (If anyone can point to a data source that would be great.) I assume this excludes people like many of Hartman’s clients who’ve found some other route such as a family relationship, but that can’t change the fact that the US is ducking a central responsibility here.

Of course, the same is true in spades for Australia. At the same time as promoting the disastrous Iraq venture, many of our local warmongers have enthusiastically backed the view that we have no obligations to the refugees it has created, and are entitled to turn back any asylum-seekers who have not travelled here directly from Iraq (I’m sure that if any direct routes were feasible, a way would be found to block their use, so please don’t bother with legalistic defences of this disgraceful hypocrisy).

There’s no real way to salvage the disaster we’ve created in Iraq. But we must at least accept the responsibility of providing a haven to those fleeing the carnage we have created.

Update Judging by the comments, the pro-war view is that our obligations to take refugees extend only, or at least preferentially, to Christians.