Watching the polls

John Quiggin60 Comments

I’m watching the US election results with particular impatience, as I’ve agreed to do a piece for the Fin on implications for Australia, which are hard to figure out until we actually see the results.

My general desire for an overwhelming Democrat win is in line with personal self-interest. For the last two presidential elections, I’ve had to write three different pieces covering a win for either side or “too close to call by deadline time”. I really don’t want to do that again.

So far things look good for the Democrats. Leaked exit polls, for what they’re worth, show leads in most key races, and the early counting has confirmed some gains in the House, Senate and state governorships.

Update 1:40 I’m going to get in early and call a win for the Dems in the House. They’ve gained around nine seats already (no losses at all so far), and only need to hold onto leads to pick up the six more they need.

Update 3:15 It looks like the Dems will gain about 30 seats, which also means a majority of 30. The odds are still against a win in the Senate, but the size of the loss will make it hard for the Republicans to hang on next time around.

A big winner out of all this is John McCain. The Republican establishment will have their work cut out to stop him getting the nomination now, especially if they put up a member of Team Bush.

The end of Eudora

John Quiggin23 Comments

I’ve used hundreds of different programs in the 20+ years I’ve owned a Mac (I’ve got 15 running right now), but the two I’ve used most consistently, for more than a decade have been the word processor NisusWriter and the email package Eudora. I’ve just downloaded the last commercial version of Eudora for the Mac (6.2.4, the Windows version went to 7.1.

The pill has been sweetened by the announcement that the Eudora code will be released as open source, but I can’t see anyone stepping forward to work on this, at least for the Mac, given that Mail is freely bundled with OS X and there are several excellent free or low-cost alternatives.

Of course, the program still works, so there’s no need to change it any time soon. And Nisus made a successful transition to OS X quite a while ago, with the new name Nisus Writer Express.

Megaprojects and risk

John Quiggin7 Comments

There’s lots of big projects on the go at the moment, and experience suggests that some will go badly wrong. The man who wrote the book on this (literally) is Bent Flyvbjerg of Aarlborg University in Denmark. He’ll be appearing at a symposium organised by Griffith’s Urban Research Program at 80 George St, Brisbane (wasn’t there a blog with a name like that?) on Friday 1 December. I’ll be the local support act.

Over the fold is the promotional poster. Here’s a review by Darryl Jarvis. I also wrote one which I will try to post later.
Read More »

Parallel universe quiz

John Quiggin75 Comments

Which of these claims has not been put forward by prominent global warming denialists ?

A Cycle analysis by a well-known astrologer proves that global temperatures will soon decline
B Data supporting global warming was faked by NASA along with the bogus moon landings
C There is no such thing as global average temperature, and therefore the whole idea is meaningless
D A voyage through the Arctic Circle by the Chinese fleet in 1421 proves that temperatures were much higher then

Answer over fold
Read More »

Saddam sentenced to hang

John Quiggin71 Comments

There can be few people on the planet more deserving of death than Saddam Hussein. However, the crime for which he has just been sentenced to die was, by his standards, relatively minor. Following an assassination attempt attributed to terrorists and traitors, his regime responded with indiscriminate arrests. Those seized were held incommunicado in secret prisons, tortured (in some cases to death) and then, in many cases, executed after trials by special tribunals set up to secure convictions where normal courts would not.

If the precedent set by this case is applied consistently, we can expect to see many more death sentences arising from events in Iraq and elsewhere, and not just among the remnants of the Baathist regime.

Surfdom goes MSM

John Quiggin5 Comments

Tim Dunlop has just announced that he will be running a blog for News Limited, on their news.com.au site. The title is Blogocracy, and it’s going to start on Monday.

Tim’s blog, Road to Surfdom, will continue, which is good since it’s always been my favorite among Australian blogs. I was reading the Crikey report on this, and it made an observation that had also occurred to me.

At the very least, the News Limited move suggests that a a back door into journalism is ajar. Don’t want to do a communications course followed by a cadetship to break into journalism? Consider starting up a blog – if you can make it good enough to get noticed.

Tim isn’t the first to follow this route. Back in the Cambrian era of Australian blogging (2003), Gareth Parker was one of the pioneers. He got a job with the West Australian, but giving up blogging was part of the deal, if I recall correctly. Admittedly, Gareth was a journalism student, so it wasn’t just the blog that got him the job, but it didn’t do any harm.

Weekend reflections

John Quiggin30 Comments

Weekend Reflections is on again. Please comment on any topic of interest (civilised discussion and no coarse language, please). Feel free to put in contributions more lengthy than for the Monday Message Board or standard comments.