Nicholas Gruen kindly alerted me to a security hole affecting all WordPress blogs, and Tim Lambert’s post reminds me that I should spread the word about the need to upgrade to version 1.5.1.3. My experience and Flute’s commenting at Tim’s is that it’s a very simple job (10 minutes or so) and if you’re starting at 1.5 there should be some additional stability benefits
Anonymous comment in peril ?
I’ve just come back from an appearance before the Parliamentary Electoral Matters Committee Inquiry into the Conduct of the 2004 Federal Election and Matters
Related Thereto, where I presented a submission arguing that blogs, and commenters, should not be required to identify themselves when commenting during an election campaign. It was a pretty vigorous session, and some members of the Committee were clearly not convinced. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see an attempt to restrict anonymous Internet comment coming out of the Committee’s report.
My immediate analysis is that, if anonymous comments were prohibited, the only way to be safe would be to close down comments during election campaigns. Even if people gave full names and addresses, I don’t have the resources to verify them.
Anyway, it would be good to hear other views: I’ll need to think more about my own views.
My submission (PDF file) is over the fold
Read More »
Elasticity and progress
The question of whether technological progress is slowing down has been around for a fair while, and is up for discussion again (hat-tip Jack Strocch(. In many sectors of the economy, notably transport, the answer is very clearly “Yes”.
On the other hand, Moore’s Law (speed doubling every 18 months) still seems to hold for computer chips and they are playing an increasingly important role in the economy. So although progress in most areas is slower than the historical average, progress in this central area is faster.
In the end, it all comes down to the long-run price elasticity of demand for computation. If this is less than one, total revenue from the sale of computational services will eventually decline relative to national income, and the ultimate situation will be one where computation is effectively free, but no longer an important source of progress. If the elasticity is greater than one, the computation-based share of GDP will rise over time, as previously separate sectors like music, video and so on are computerised.
My reading of the evidence is that the value so far is very close to one, which accounts for some of the ambiguity surrounding this question
Squaring the circle (crossposted at CT)
Reading John and Belle’s blog, not the place I would usually look for unfamiliar maths results, I discovered that the circle can be squared in Gauss-Bolyai-Lobachevsky space . Checking a bit further, I found this was not a new result but was shown by Bolyai back in C19.
I haven’t found a link that shows how the construction was achieved, though. Can someone point me in the right direction, please?
A blog without comments is like …
… a club with one member.
The winner of the impromptu contest is my old friend Jim Birch. People naturally tried for a risqué analogy and that would have been my first thought, but none of them quite worked. Jim’s entry is simple but hits the nail on the head, I think.
Assume we have a can-opener
A lot of my work at the moment is bound up with a model of the Murray-Darling River system. As all students of economic methodology know, such models involve more or less unrealistic assumptions designed to allow us to calculate some results while maintaining some connection with reality. One tricky issue in the model, and in reality, is what to do about demand for water for residential use in Adelaide. A member of my research team (who shall remain nameless) has proposed a drastic simplifying assumption, with a very pleasing implication
Here are the model results excluding Adelaide.
I have assumed that Adelaide doesn’t exist.
Therefore the Lions actually won 4 straight.
if only!
Monday message board
As usual on Monday, you are invited to post your thoughts on any topic. Civilised discussion and no coarse language, please.
Withholding witnesses
This NYT report on the Italian case in which a number of CIA agents have been indicted for kidnapping a cleric suspected of involvement in terrorism has one item of particular relevance to Australia.
In addition to their objections to the American rendition policy [sending suspects overseas for torture], European counterterrorism officials also partly blame a lack of access to terrorism suspects and information held by the United States for their failure to convict a number of their own high-profile terrorism suspects.
The acquittal on most serious charges of Abu Bashir, spiritual leader of the Indonesian terrorists responsible for the Bali bombing was due primarily to the fact that the operational chief Hambali was not a witness, since the US Administration which holds him would not hand him over, even temporarily.
The Hambali case completely undermines for the official rationale for the US policy of rendition. In theory, the claim is that terrorists suspects, wanted in their own countries, are transferred there. But here’s a case of a leading Indonesian terrorist, wanted by Indonesia for crimes committed in Indonesia, and the US Administration won’t hand him over.
The demands of justice in relation to the Australian victims of the Bali bombing were similarly ignored.
It seems likely that Bashir will be released soon, and the operation of the rendition policy is largely to blame for this travesty of justice.
What I’m reading
“The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time” (Jeffrey Sachs).
Broadly speaking, I think Sachs makes a convincing case about the feasibility of ending extreme poverty, given sufficient political will. Things like last nights Live 8 concert may help to motivate this.
Sachs is very good on the specific issue of malaria. We’ve just had a rather ill-tempered debate (I was a bit ill-tempered myself) over who said what about DDT and malaria five years ago. Regardless of views about specific technology choices, the big problem is inadequate funding. It would be nice to think that we could all get behind calls for a big increase in funding, including this one from George Bush (only a promise at this stage, but still a good sign).
I plan a full scale review of Sachs, as soon as I get a round tuit.
Work time and play time (crossposted at CT)
Another interesting feature of last night’s was a strong turnout of trade unionists, handing out balloons and footy-shaped brochures about the dangers for working life arising from the government’s proposed industrial relations reforms. The central theme was that unions had fought for the rights that gave us a decent balance between work and family, allowing us to do things like enjoy a football game, in contrast to the 24/7/365 flexible workplace being pushed upon us today. They seemed to get a pretty positive reaction, and it was a great idea for getting volunteers to turn out, given the opportunity to go to the footy afterwards.
This is a big and complex issue, of which I’ve only scratched the surface. But more soon, I hope.
