Copenhagen Consensus

John Quiggin9 Comments

The results of the Copenhagen Consensus are out, and as predicted, that is, with climate change at the bottom of the list. I’ll give a more detailed response later on, but I thought I’d respond to this point in the Economist

The bottom of the list, however, aroused more in the way of hostile comment. Rated “bad”, meaning that costs were thought to exceed benefits, were all three of the schemes put before the panel for mitigating climate change, including the Kyoto protocol on greenhouse-gas emissions. (The panel rated only one other policy bad: guest-worker programmes to promote immigration, which were frowned upon because they make it harder for migrants to assimilate.) This gave rise to suspicion in some quarters that the whole exercise had been rigged. Mr Lomborg is well-known, and widely reviled, for his opposition to Kyoto.

These suspicions are in fact unfounded, as your correspondent (who sat in on the otherwise private discussions) can confirm. A less biddable group would be difficult to imagine.

On the contrary, as I suggested at the outset, a panel that included, say, Joe Stiglitz and Amartya Sen would have been considerably less biddable, as well as being better qualified to look at the issues in question.
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Re-form

John Quiggin3 Comments

Robert Samelson argues that we should stop using the word ‘reform’. I’ve grappled with this question for a long term, having been generally critical of the neoliberal policies generally referred to as “microeconomic reform”. I’ve tried all sorts of devices, such as the use of scare quotes and phrases like “so-called reform”, before concluding that the best thing is just to use the word in ways that make it obvious that I am not attaching positive connotations to it.

Over the fold is an old post on the subject (I needed to repost to fix broken links).
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Fed Fellow Fun & Fury

John Quiggin19 Comments

Among the many nice things about being a Federation Fellow, one of the nicest is the way it infuriates some of my opponents[1]. I mentioned the IPA a while back and now Peter Saunders of the Centre for Independent Studies has had a go in today’s Fin. He’s responding to a piece of mine developed out of this post on bracket creep, though the article switched the focus from Saunders to an earlier presentation of the same argument by Peter Costello. The same piece produced a somewhat incoherent letter from Sinclair Davidson of RMIT, who couldn’t come up with anything better than to say that my article was “drivel”.

Anyway, Saunders wants to argue that tax rates and economic incentives influence location decisions[2] and decides to use me as an example, saying that I moved to Queensland to take up the Fellowship[3] (he even quotes from this blog). In fact, as my handful of long-term readers may recall, I moved to Brisbane in late 2002 and didn’t get the Fellowship until March 2003. My reasons for moving were much the same as those of the other 50 000 people who made the same move that year, and are summed up here.

The Fin is subscription only, but I’ve added some relevant extracts over the fold

fn1. It’s not very noble of me to take pleasure in annoying my opponents, but I can’t deny that I do.

fn2. To be boringly serious, I don’t, of course, deny that incentives affect decisions, but I think there are many more significant incentives in our system than the top marginal tax rate.

fn3. Saunders is open to a tu quoque here, having recently moved to this high-tax hell from the dynamic UK.
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Fed Fellow Fun & Fury

John Quiggin19 Comments

Among the many nice things about being a Federation Fellow, one of the nicest is the way it infuriates some of my opponents[1]. I mentioned the IPA a while back and now Peter Saunders of the Centre for Independent Studies has had a go in today’s Fin. He’s responding to a piece of mine developed out of this post on bracket creep, though the article switched the focus from Saunders to an earlier presentation of the same argument by Peter Costello. The same piece produced a somewhat incoherent letter from Sinclair Davidson of RMIT, who couldn’t come up with anything better than to say that my article was “drivel”.

Anyway, Saunders wants to argue that tax rates and economic incentives influence location decisions[2] and decides to use me as an example, saying that I moved to Queensland to take up the Fellowship[3] (he even quotes from this blog). In fact, as my handful of long-term readers may recall, I moved to Brisbane in late 2002 and didn’t get the Fellowship until March 2003. My reasons for moving were much the same as those of the other 50 000 people who made the same move that year, and are summed up here.

The Fin is subscription only, but I’ve added some relevant extracts over the fold

fn1. It’s not very noble of me to take pleasure in annoying my opponents, but I can’t deny that I do.

fn2. To be boringly serious, I don’t, of course, deny that incentives affect decisions, but I think there are many more significant incentives in our system than the top marginal tax rate.

fn3. Saunders is open to a tu quoque here, having recently moved to this high-tax hell from the dynamic UK.
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Plausible deniability

John Quiggin8 Comments

Some readers might be tempted to disbelieve the assurances of Prime Minister Howard, Defence Secretary Ric Smith, General Cosgrove and others that none of their subordinates told them about the allegations of abuse and torture in Abu Ghraib, received as early as last October.

On the contrary, these assurances are all too believable. In the light of the “children overboard” business, and the more recent humiliation of Mick Keelty, what officer would be foolish enough to pass bad news of this kind on to his or her superiors? Far better to emulate Sergeant Schultz. This setup works brilliantly for all concerned, unless, of course, it should happen that our leaders actually need to be informed about something they would rather not hear.

Paradoxes and infinity

John Quiggin6 Comments

Following up my three-way classification of paradoxes,[1] I want to argue that paradoxes involving infinity are always of type-3, that is, the result of ill-posed problems or inappropriate ways of taking limits. (Much the same position is defended in the comments thread by Bill Carone). In fact, I’d argue for the following general principle, applicable to all models relevant to human decisionmakers.

Whenever a result, true for all finite n, is strictly[2] reversed for the infinite case, the problem in question has been posed incorrectly

To defend this, I rely on the premise that we are finite creatures in a finite universe. If a mathematical representation of a decision problem involves an infinite set, such as the integers or the real line, it is only because this is more convenient than employing finite, but very large bounds, such as those derived from the number of particles in the universe. Any property that depends inherently on infinite sets and limits, such as the continuity of a function, can never be verified or falsified by empirical data. Since we are finite, any result that is true for all finite n is true for us.
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What I'm reading

John Quiggin12 Comments

A PhD thesis. This is the entry ticket to the academic guild, the last survival of the medieval masterpiece.[1] The old-style thesis has largely disappeared in the United States, being replaced by a combination of coursework and a “three essays” dissertation. I think it would be a good thing if Australia went the same way. But, in the meantime, examining theses is part of the job, and often a painful one. The one I read this weekend was one of the easy ones, without any need for radical revisions or the ultimate catastrophe, a failing grade. I can write my report today and send it off with a light heart.

fn1. Not, as in today’s usage, an artist’s greatest work, but the piece done by an apprentice to qualify as a master, without any expectation that it should involve notable difficulty or efforts of a truly exceptional kind. premarin vaginal cream applicator

What I'm reading

John Quiggin12 Comments

A PhD thesis. This is the entry ticket to the academic guild, the last survival of the medieval masterpiece.[1] The old-style thesis has largely disappeared in the United States, being replaced by a combination of coursework and a “three essays” dissertation. I think it would be a good thing if Australia went the same way. But, in the meantime, examining theses is part of the job, and often a painful one. The one I read this weekend was one of the easy ones, without any need for radical revisions or the ultimate catastrophe, a failing grade. I can write my report today and send it off with a light heart.

fn1. Not, as in today’s usage, an artist’s greatest work, but the piece done by an apprentice to qualify as a master, without any expectation that it should involve notable difficulty or efforts of a truly exceptional kind. premarin vaginal cream applicator