A puzzle for the libertarians

One of the striking features of the debate over road safety is the extent to which the opinions of blogosphere residents can be predicted on the basis of political affiliation. Rightwingers, both libertarians and law-and-order types, are in favor both of soft laws (high speed limits etc) and weak law enforcement, and leftwingers the opposite. A number of commentators on both sides have made this point.

So I was interested to see this pro-speeding site [thanks to TJW for the link]. The main argument is fairly standard (everybody speeds, so travelling at the speed limit is dangerous so speed limits should not be enforced). But what’s interesting is this para

In the United States, just two speeding tickets can increase your insurance premiums by 50%! In BC, the penalty points from two speeding tickets will cost you $300.

The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS), a powerful lobby group funded by the US insurance industry, has been the chief opponent of moves to raise speed limits.

Insurance companies in the US (and ICBC in BC) frequently purchase radar and laser guns for police forces to issue more speeding tickets.

which presents an obvious paradox for libertarian supporters of speeding. A fully privatised system would give more power to the insurance companies to impose their own conditions on insured drivers and, if this site is correct, the companies would be keen to tighten the rules.

In my experience, libertarians love the kind of intellectual gymnastics required to produce free-market solutions to puzzles of this kind, so I’m offering it for their enjoyment.

Strike!

Like most academics, I’m somewhat ambivalent about strike action. On the one hand, given the nature of the work, a one-day or even a one-week strike would barely be noticed by the employers (and, as I’ll mention below, it’s not clear whether the employers are the universities or the government). On the other hand, the right to strike is an important one, that has been struggled for and defended for nearly 200 years, and we have plenty of reasons for wanting to exercise it.

In practice, there’s never been a national strike of more than one day, and my response has usually been to stay home and work there, occasionally turning out on a ‘picket’ (more accurately, ‘protest’) line. Even the loss of pay has been spotty. For the same reasons as strikes are somewhat ineffectual, it’s hard to verify who is on strike and who is simply out of the office for some other reason on a given day. So the university is generally reduced to asking people to dob themselves in and the old-style unionist in me objects to helping the boss in this way.

But on this occasion, I’ll be doing things properly. I’m going to spend the day catching up on non-uni jobs (including, I hope, polishing up the blog) and I’ve already advised the uni so they can dock my pay for the day. The issues are worth a strike

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Tailgating

The comments thread for the previous post raises the issue of tailgating. I’ve seen surveys in which the two most common annoyances are (1) tailgating and (2) slow drivers. Given that, in my experience, at least 95 per cent of drivers drive within a few k of the speed limit whenever they can, I’d guess that a large proportion of those giving response (2) are the people who annoy those of us giving response (1). Road safety would be greatly enhanced if these people could either be deterred or delicensed.

But there’s no obvious way of enforcing laws against this species of dangerous driving. I can think of various possibilities, but I can also think of technical difficulties with all of them. About the most promising would be a fixed video camera that would record all passing traffic. It ought to be able to infer both speed and distance between cars, and then prosecute tailgaters, but the computational requirements of recording this digitally and processing it automatically would be immense. Still, Moore’s Law is on our side, here.

Rolling the dice

An interesting Four Corners last night. Here’s the transcript. I worked on gambling issues back in the 90s, and put in a submission to the Productivity Commission inquiry in 1999. Having worked in the field, there are a number of things that everybody knows (including the casinos). Among them:
The bulk of the money comes from a small number of heavy gamblers
A problem gambler is a heavy gambler who’s run out of money
There’s nothing casinos will resist more vigorously than an interruption to play
All of this came out in the program.

On the analysis that I did and also that of the Productivity Commission, it’s pretty clear that some forms of gambling cause more social harm than good, if you apply standard consumer theory to moderate gamblers but assume that heavy/problem gamblers are not getting any benefits from gambling. Pokies and racetrack betting are the worst, lotteries are the best.

One last feature, showing that this blog is still in touch with the zeitgeist was the use of the MRD response “They would say that, wouldn’t they”, in an entirely appropriate context.

Littoral cringe

I stayed at the Gold Coast last weeked, at Tugun Beach near Coolangatta. A nice enough spot, with miles of uncrowded beaches and not overdeveloped by Gold Coast standards, though the towers of Surfers Paradise in the distance produced a rather surreal effect. We stayed at a pleasant place called the Golden Riviera, and the neighbouring places had the usual names – Costa del Sol, Malibu etc. I haven’t been to the Riviera or Costa del Sol, but Malibu is not a patch on Coolangatta, and the pictures of European beaches I’ve seen don’t impress.

So the thought struck me – do villas on the Riviera have names like Noosa and Bondi? I doubt it. Still, Australia has at least advanced since the days when beachside locations were named after Brighton and Margate.

Do motives matter ?

There’s been a good deal of debate on this blog about whether it’s appropriate to look at the motives of people who are making particular arguments (for example Lomborg and the environment), or whether you should take them at face value and respond to the arguments directly. Much the same debate has been taking place among US econobloggers, including Brad de Long and Arnold Kling. You can get started with Brad here.

My view is that motives matter. It’s very difficult to conduct a reasoned discussion with someone if you know they will lie, or distort the truth, whenever they get away with it. Hence, it’s important to distinguish between honest disagreement and propaganda and necessary to respond differently to one than to the other.

Update This post from Tim Lambert illustrates the point perfectly. It concerns an article by well-known pro-gun academic John Lott purporting to prove the correctness of some claims made by rightwing windbag Rush Limbaugh about media coverage of black quarterbacks in the NFL. As Lambert says

Even if all the data is correct and his regressions have been correctly calculated his analysis is not in the slightest bit persuasive. The reason is that his behaviour in the coding errors case suggests that he just keeps trying different models and just cherry picks the one that gives the result he wants. Would Lott want to get a result that supports Limbaugh? Well, check out this Mary Rosh posting:

You have got to download this paper. Lott has done an amazing piece here. Fits in perfectly with Rush Limbaughâs program today.

Tim’s site has more on the Lott/Rosh saga and the bizarre parallels with the case of antigun researcher Michael Bellisles. Ted Barlow at Crooked Timber has more on this (warning: Turn irony detectors on full before reading this post). Finally, for more on the problem of cherry-picking, aka “data mining”, read here, here and here. To spell it out, statistical results from someone you can trust to play by the rules are worth discussing, those from someone known to engage in data-mining/cherry-picking are not.

The Fin leans left and gets it right

Although I’ve written for the Fin for nearly ten years, it’s always been in the role of a dissenting voice on the Op-Ed page. Even when, as at present, the regular opinion commentators are fairly evenly balanced between left and right, the editorial column has stuck closely to economic rationalist/neoliberal orthodoxy.

Today’s editorial on unemployment (subscription required) though is positively Quigginesque*, making the points that 6 per cent unemployment is too much and the Job Network is a mess (for my views on the same topic, go here. There’s even a warning against excessive reliance on market ideology, to balance the inevitable call for further liberalisation of labour markets.

Obviously it’s great to see the Fin taking a hard look at an issue like unemployment and coming up with an answer I can agree with in large measure. I also take a less worthy pleasure in thinking how much this will annoy my friends at the Institute of Public Affairs. They’ve always been bitter at the Fin for having me as a columnist, and they’ll be spitting chips if they think that my heresies could start to infect the editorial column.

While we’re on the opinion pages, check out this neat application of prospect theory by Ross Gittins.

*This delightful term was coined, I think, by Henry Ergas