A war of absences

In response to my posting about Salam Pax, various people have pointed out implausibilities in the story, not to mention the fact that it’s fourth-hand news at best by the time I reported it. It struck me that this is becoming a war made up almost entirely of mysterious absences. In some ways Bin Laden set the pattern, but it has been amplified in the war on Iraq. There’s Saddam himself (dead, alive and in command, or already on the run?), the welcoming crowds of liberated Iraqis (hostile nationalists or still scared of Saddam’s secret police ?), the Republican Guard (demolished or run away to fight another day ?).

Most of all, there are the Weapons of Mass Destruction. As I pointed out before the shooting started, this was an issue which, for all practical purposes would be resolved on the first day. If Saddam had weapons and was not amenable to containment, the militarily effective time to use them was while US forces were still concentrated in Kuwait. When this didn’t happen, it was widely reported that Saddam’s weapons were concentrated in a ‘Red Zone’ and that Republican Guard units had orders to use them when Coalition troops entered the zone. Clearly if this had been true, weapons would have been used or found by now. Now perhaps, they are being stored for a final siege of Baghdad.

Some on the Coalition side are preparing a backup case, in which thecasus belli will remain intact indefinitely, even if no weapons are found. According to this story, it may take as much as eight months to manufacture find the evidence. (link via Tim Dunlop).

As with so many others, I find this war confusing as well as deeply depressing. I don’t know what to hope for now except that the people of Iraq will soon enjoy the peace Salam Pax took for his name and that he (?) will be among those who survive to enjoy it.

Update Jim Henley reports that Al Jazeera’s English-language site is up here, and there is no mention of salam. So I guess something got confused along the way as happens with rumours of war. I hope so, anyway.

Winning hearts and minds

From todays SMH, attributed to the Telegraph

British forces say they have “turned” a number of Ba’ath party members against the regime, who have inflitrated Iraqi military groups hidden in schools and hospitals.

At a smart housing complex outside Basra, untouched by looting from militia groups, British officers approached an Iraqi man at his makeshift stall.

“Do you know,” said one officer, “that unless Ba’ath party members start working for us, we’ll take it that they are working against us and we’ll have them shot?”

As the translator put the message across, the officer explained: “I didn’t really mean that. I’m here to offer him and his family safe passage but with these sorts of punters it’s best to play hard.”

“I see,” said the Iraqi, dragging on his cigarette. “Now I think about it, I do remember something.”

Consistency and inconsistency

Stephen Kirchner raises all sorts of issues in this post (no permalink) which I just found (interestingly enough, just after giving a talk to a leftish audience in which I criticized, among other ‘magic puddings’, the idea that expenditure could be funded by deficits in the long run). After talking in a rather waffly way about the US budget, Kirchner says:

Similarly, it has been amusing to watch many left-of-centre economists re-discover fiscal conservatism now that the government in the US is spending money on stuff they don’t like. John Quiggin characteristically overstates his case in referring to the rise of ‘banana republic populism’ in the US. There are many objections one could raise to the growth in non-defence discretionary outlays under the Bush Administration. But one can’t help but think that deficits of similar magnitude incurred by a Democratic Administration in the wake of a major recession would not occasion similarly alarmist predictions from the likes of Quiggin.

My first response is that it’s a bit annoying when you take the trouble to post almost your entire output on the Web and someone makes this kind of comment without reading what you’ve written. I’ve written many times, and in many different contexts, on the need for a ‘golden rule’ approach in which budgets are balanced (more precisely, public net worth is stable) over the course of the economic cycle. But Kirchner feels free to present me as a recent convert to fiscal conservatism motivated by political partisanship.

The second point is that the objection is not to the current relatively modest deficits, associated, as Kirchner says, with a major recession, but at the projection of deficits growing indefinitely into the future. Brad de Long gives the alarming details in numerous posts on his site.

The final point relates to Kirchner’s own inconsistency. He denies being a Keynesian, but seems to imply that running deficits in recessions isn’t such a bad idea (or maybe he’s just imputing this viewpoint to me). Or perhaps, like the US Republicans, he thinks that deficits are always good. I’ll leave it to him to clarify his position on all this.

To summarise, I don’t see anything wrong with the proposed US budget deficit for this year or next . But if a government of any political color put forward a long-term fiscal strategy as irresponsible as that put up by Bush, I would certainly be raising the alarm.

Update Following a discussion you can read in the comments thread, Stephen Kirchner has now graciously withdrawn the suggestion that my concern about fiscal sustainability is politically selective.

Word for Wednesday: Internationalism definition

Internationalism is not a political movement like social democracy or neoliberalism, nor is it a central term in a body of argument, like globalisation. Rather, it is a general aspiration. So I’m going to offer my own definition, and try to tease out its relevance to our present problems. As opposed to globalism, internationalism accepts the reality and legitimacy of national governments. This legitimacy arises in part from acceptance of the idea of the nation-state, that particular groups of people (nations) are bound together by ties of common history and language, and are natural units of governments. But the legitimacy of the nation-state is provisional, dependent on both on the consent of the people who make up the nation and on adherence to evolving rules of international law. So, for internationalists, notions of sovereignty, derived from the idea that a king or emperor has the right to manage the affairs of his domain as he sees fit, are problematic.

From an internationalist viewpoint, the debate over the war between Iraq and the US-led coalition has been highly unsatisfactory. On the one hand, the anti-war idea that Iraq is a sovereign nation and that interference with its internal affairs is necessarily wrong cannot be accepted. Saddam’s lack of democratic legitimacy and numerous breaches of international law give the world community the right to protect itself. On the other hand, despite the figleaf of claiming to enforce UN resolutions (now virtually abandoned) the US-led coalition has relied essentially on nationalist arguments that the US has the right to do whatever it sees fit to promote its own national security and national interest. The commonly heard statement ‘S11 changed everything’ can be unpacked into a claim that, in a situation where the US has been subject to direct attack, it is not bound by any concept of international law.

The outcomes of the war so far give strong support to the internationalist view. In particular, the arguments for reliance on international organisations like the United Nations are, in large measure, the same as the arguments for liberal democracy within nations, for example, that no one nation (person) has the wisdom to make the decisions for everyone and that any nation (person) who is given a position of absolute power will ultimately abuse it. It is already clear that on the key issue that divided the US from the majority of members of the UNSC (the claim that Saddam’s weapons represented an immediate threat, and the claim that the calculus of costs and benefits favored immediate action over taking time to build an international consensus), the US was wrong and the majority was right.

15 minutes of fame

The long-rumoured 7:30 Report segment on blogging went to air today. Other Ozbloggers covered were James Morrow, Gareth Parker and Gianna. I thought it was a pretty good introductory piece, with some cool montages. Gareth had a cool shot as a footy umpire (but his blog wasn’t given much of a run) and Gianna was shot with a very arty black background. I did my usual academic office thing, and James was shown at home. It seems like there’s a few visitors who are coming in because of the show, and I’d be interested in your thoughts (click on the “Comments” link, read others’ comments and add your own).

Sadly, Salam Pax, the Baghdad blogger who was featured in the opening of the segment has not posted for more than a week – maybe because Saddam’s police got to him or maybe because of the cutoff of Internet access, now complete since the Americans bombed the telephone network out of existence.

Update A colleague has emailed me to say that, according to Al Jazeera, salam pax is wounded in hospital. He seems to be in the city of Najaf. The doctor said that he was on his computer when his house was hit by a bomb.

Further update There’s a transcript of the 7:30 report segment here.

Further update 5 April Jim Henley reports that Al Jazeera’s English-language site is up here, and there is no mention of salam. So I guess something got confused along the way as happens with rumours of war. I hope so, anyway.

Becoming the enemy

When I first read the story of seven Iraqi women and children killed at a checkpoint while trying to flee the fighting in Najaf, my immediate reaction was “Now, surely, those who have supported the war will see that it can only lead to disaster”. A little more thought made me realise, not only that I was wrong, but that this tragedy will probably make matters worse. War hardens hearts, and this will only make them harder. When this war started, it was claimed that the rules of engagement were the most restrictive of any war in history. Two weeks later, the rules are those of Vietnam in the war zones, and those of Northern Ireland in occupied territory, yet virtually no-one who initially supported the war has conceded that they were mistaken.

We have already come to accept the assassination, not only of top leaders like Saddam, but of anyone associated with the regime, both by bombing and CIA death squads. Shoot to kill policies for suspect civilians have been announced, then expanded. Restrictions on targets for bombing have been dropped. Food and water are being used as weapons, and the prospect of starving the Iraqi defenders out of Baghdad is already being mooted.

Given the increasing frequency of references to Northern Ireland and Guantanamo Bay it’s reasonable to assume that torture of prisoners classed as ‘terrorist suspects’ will begin within the next few weeks, if it hasn’t started already. This will be denied with great vehemence, then, when it comes out, defended as an inevitable response to Saddam’s evil methods.

Exit strategies

Looking at the developing disaster of this war, I’ve been trying my best to think of possible exit strategies (not that anyone who matters will listen). Here’s the best I can come up with so far. Suppose that the liberation of Basra turns out the best that can possibly be expected – that is, at least some of the inhabitants join in a rebellion against the regime and succeed with the support of British troops. The chaos in Basra (no water, not enough food, remnants of the Fedayeen) would be sufficient to justify a lengthy pause in the fighting to establish Basra as the core of a liberated Iraq. Given enough time, something might turn up – Saddam might die of his wounds or whatever.

At worst, the establishment of a liberated Southern Iraq, and an expanded Kurdish area in the North could be regarded as settling the unfinished business of 1991. The Coalition could establish a provisional government, give it sufficient arms to deal with any remaining Fedayeen, and provide air support against any counterattack from Saddam. Then it would be time to declare victory and get out. Given sufficient chutzpah, the Coalition could even say that they have forcibly inspected all the WMD sites identified by their intelligence and destroyed a number of WMDs found there (zero, but zero is a number).

Josh Marshall has also been considering possible outcomes, two of which are disaster scenarios of different degrees of severity, and one (making Rummy the scapegoat and going back to Blix) is an exit strategy, though one I can’t see the administration going for.

If anyone has seen or thought of any other ideas that don’t involve either a siege of Baghdad or a new Stalingrad, I’d be keen to hear about it.

Progress ?

Within the first hour of war (when I was at Parliament House in fact), the newsticker included claims that two entire Iraqi divisions were about to surrender. Twelve days later, Associate Press is running a story headed Three Iraqi Soldiers Desert the Army (running frontpage on the LA Times website). I was going to do one of those calculations about how long it would take for the entire Iraqi army to desert at this pace, but you get the drift.

Politician keeps promise

Quite a while ago, I posted on the apparent willingness of the Bracks government to keep a promise to reform the electoral system for the Victorian Legislative Council, even though this will probably mean they will lose control of the Council at the next election (a few years away, but it seems a pretty good bet that Labor will win in the Assembly and therefore continue in government. According to Paul Strangio in the Age, the legislation has now been passed. Dr Strangio is a bit upset that there hasn’t been much jubilation about this (perhaps people have something else on their minds right now) so I’d like to say that I, for one, am jubilant, not only about the substantive reform but at the possibility that political promise-keeping may be coming back into favor.

Fox lies, but at least they're honest about it (maybe)

Via The Agonist, I found this story of a journalist who sued Fox News after being fired because she was unwilling to participate in a false report about growth hormones. Allegedly, Fox won its case at the appellate level on the basis that the First Amendment included the right to lie (and presumably to force employees to lie).
I couldn’t find a confirming source for the story, which is in an Internet publication called the Sierra Times, and includes a mis-spelling of Rupert Murdoch’s name, and I must admit it sounds too good to be true -has anyone else among the Agonist’s legion of readers picked this up?

Almost instant update Me No No supplies a range of links, which led me to the Appeal Court’s judgement, available as a PDF file from this site, basically confirming the Sierra Times story (but not the original heading of my post, which I’ve now qualified). The crucial para is “We agree with WTVT that the FCC’s policy against the intentional falsification of the news – which the FCC has called its “news distortion policy” – does not qualify as the required “law, rule, or regulation” under section 448.102.” To clarify, the lawsuit was brought under a whistleblower protection act, and the judgement is that a reporter exposing lies by a TV station is not protected under the act. Fox does not admit that they were distorting the news, but chose to fight on procedural grounds rather than on the facts, which is pretty standard legal tactics.