Paul Krugman expresses perfectly my biggest single concern about war with Iraq

though you don’t hear much about it in the U.S. media, a lack of faith in Mr. Bush’s staying power – a fear that he will wimp out in the aftermath of war, that he won’t do what is needed to rebuild Iraq – is a large factor in the growing rift between Europe and the United States.

The contrary danger is that he will do too much – embracing the Perle-Wolfowitz-Pipes doctrine of a war against the entire Arab world, driven ultimately by the concerns of the Likud Party, rather than by any realistic assessment of US or world interests (or for that matter of an enlightened view of Israel’s interests). But wimping out or losing interest seems more likely.

Something of a followup to the last piece, from 5 December, looking at the paradox that:

The latest Labor landslide at the weekend reinforces the great paradox of Australian politics. Labor is in office, and looking comfortable in all the States and Territories, but seems doomed to endless Opposition at the Federal level.

I got some useful discussion on this from readers of this blog. I’m finding more and more that the blog provides a useful sounding board for ideas I can then develop for a larger, but less focused/informed/passionate, audience.

Another AFR Op-Ed piece from 21 November. Here’s the Introduction and conclusion:

More than a year after losing an election with a ‘no-policy small-target’ strategy the Labor Opposition still has no discernible policies, at least on domestic issues. Foreign policy will at best be neutral for Labor. To win, Labor needs to focus attention on basic domestic issues.

…

Labor has similarly concentrated on point scoring in relation to the various levies introduced by the government to fund ‘extraordinary’ items of public expenditure. With at least half a dozen such levies at last count, and more having been mooted, these fiscal expedients provide a tempting target. But despite the dislike of some economists for ‘hypothecated taxes’, special-purpose levies make a valuable contribution to public understanding, by making clear the link between desirable items of public expenditure and the taxes required to pay for them.

Rather than scorning the government’s reliance on levies, Labor should exploit this precedent. A Medicare style levy at a rate of 1 or 2 per cent could fund substantial new expenditure on education and the environment while allowing the ragbag of existing levies to be scrapped. Unlike the spurious idea that the sale of assets can be used to finance current expenditure, the revenue from a levy would provide Labor with a genuine ‘war chest’ for financing election promises, and one that the government would be unable to match.

For the moment, it is probably too optimistic to suppose that any political party in Australia would advocate an increase in standard rates of income tax to finance improvements in health, education and the environment. But ultimately, those who will the end must will the means.

As I predicted, Saddam has accepted Blix’s demands accepting U-2 flights, allowing private interviews with scientists, handing over at least some documents and promising legislation banning weapons of mass destruction (for what that’s worth). This will probably ensure a positive report from Blix on Friday. One important point about this is that it is evidence that Saddam is rational, therefore deterrrable. A refusal to back down on points like this would have been suicidal on his part.

On the other hand, my predictive powers fail me in working out what’s going to happen after that. The US has predictably dismissed the concessions, but the points at issue were referred to in very strong terms in Powell’s speech. With the exposure of the bogus Blair dossier (cited very favourably by Powell) and the apparent refutation of claims about a chemical weapons plant operated by Al Ansar in northern Iraq, the US case for war has weakened substantially in the past four or five days. It seems unlikely that the UNSC will pass the kind of second resolution the US wants, at least for the moment.

Of course, what matters is whether Blair can manage to drag the UK into a war. He seems to have a solid Cabinet (but you can never tell, of course) and he’s trying hard to avoid a Parliamentary vote which would certainly produce large-scale defections.

I’ve been looking at the parallels between the frauds perpetrated by pro-gun academic John Lott and his anti-gun counterpart Michael Bellesiles. But there’s an equally interesting parallel between the cases of John Lott and Trent Lott. Both acted in an indefensible fashion, and no-one seriously tried to defend them. Rather, the establishment media made a collective decision that Trent Lott’s pro-segregationist comments were ‘not news’. It was only sustained pressure from bloggers that made them change tack, with first a trickle and then a torrent of print and electronic media commentators piling on to demand Lott’s resignation .

In the John Lott case, the roles are reversed. The blogging establishment, as represented by Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit covered the topic reasonably fairly until Lott’s defence case started to fall apart with the exposure of the Mary Rosh sock puppet and the shyster antics of Lott’s chief defence witness David Gross. From then on, the topic was dropped like a dead fish. Reynolds even used the exact words of the old media establishment “not news”.

Unsurprisingly, the old media did not share the view that a prominent and controversial academic posing as a former student of the opposite gender and writing glowing testimonials for himself was ‘not news’. They haven’t yet managed to get up to speed with Lott’s putative survey but they are already well ahead of the blogging establishment on this one.

Sad to say, the blogosphere’s self-congratulation after the Trent Lott affair has proved premature. With a few honourable exceptions (notably Julian Sanchez and Michelle Malkin), the dominant group of pro-gun libertarians have proved just as keen on self-censorship as the established media. Reynolds has already settled nicely into the role of Howell Raines at the NYT, and his ukases on what is and isn’t news seem to be just as effectively enforced.

The claim that Reynolds tends to wimp out by declaring a debate closed as soon as he sees that he’s losing has been made quite often, but is hard to prove – after all one blogger can only cover so many issues in one day. But the Lott/Rosh case is about as clear-cut as I can imagine. Meet the new media boss, same as the old media boss!

The real cost of regime change Australian Financial Review 7 November 2002. In this piece from three months ago, I prognosticate a bit, estimate the costs of a war and look at some of the more dangerous postwar options

The big danger is that the US will seek to use Iraqi resources to offset the costs of the invasion, thereby turning a war of liberation into an old-fashioned war of conquest. Lawrence Lindsey, economic advisor to President Bush has argued that a conquered Iraq could be induced to expand oil production and drive down the world price. The resulting savings in import bills would, he suggests, more than offset the cost of the war.

New York Times columnist William Safire has voiced a more extreme scenario circulating within the administration. A ‘democratic’ Iraqi government would, he asserts, repudiate Iraqi debts to, and contracts with, countries such as France and Russia that had failed to back the US with sufficient vigour and instead contract on favourable terms with the US and its allies.

Leaving aside the dangerous political implications, the economic consequences of these proposed policies would be disastrous. An expansion of Iraqi oil production would take years to organise. In the interim, OPEC would have every incentive to drive the price of oil to $40 a barrel and beyond.

The idea of debt repudiation is even worse. The US is not only the world’s financial centre, but the world biggest debtor nation, with gross obligations running into the trillions. The suggestion that a US-controlled government should repudiate debts to score political points casts doubt on the credit of all debtors, not least the US itself. If a US invasion goes ahead, and this suggestion has not been scotched, holders of US government debt would be well advised to get out before the market as a whole wakes up to the economic implications of unilateral pre-emption.

The various components of my move to Brisbane have finally come together to the point where I can update my website properly, starting with my opinion piece from the Fin. The first one, APEC is simply a sideshow, 24 October, deals mainly with the EU rather than APEC. Opening and closing grabs

When John Howard returns from the APEC Summit next week, he is sure to bring back one thing: A declaration that the progress made over the past year proves that APEC is more than a ‘talking shop’. Such declarations have been made every year since APEC was established in 1989, and will no doubt continue to be made until the organisation disbands or, less likely, actually does something significant enough to silence its critics.

….

As with America 200 years ago, the creation of what Churchill envisaged as a ‘United States of Europe’ is a complex, messy and often unedifying process. Nevertheless, its success or failure will determine the shape of the world in the 21st century while APEC will remain a sideshow.

For this week’s Monday Message Board I thought I’d invite comments on a couple of issues that have arisen in several different contexts on this blog. Under what circumstances, and to what extent, is it legitimate to alter quotations of another person’s words? And when does a pseudonym become a ‘sock puppet’ ?

(As always, feel free to comment on any topic, and keep it clean and civilised, please).

According to Ken Parish, Tim Blair has written to say that his move to The Bulletin was entirely of his own doing, that he will still write occasional pieces for The Australian, and that any further speculation on this issue will be countered with a nude protest in Byron Bay.

Unlike Ken, I find the prospect of Tim naked in hippie country bizarrely amusing, so I’ll assert (on the basis of extensive current intelligence from MI6 and other sources, natch) that “he didn’t jump, he was pushed”.

The Slate Saddameter (which I’ve been mis-spelling as Saddamometer), has the odds of war at 95 per cent. While war has obviously got closer (as witness my Freudian slip ‘first Gulf war’, picked up by c8t0 recently), I think Slate is underestimating the Blair problem, as it has done all along.

Saddam has already caved on the issue of private interviews with weapons inspectors, and will clearly do the same on U2 flights if he can get a positive report from Blix next week. The crucial issue, which has been at the centre of things all along, is the production of some documentary (or maybe eye-witness) evidence of weapons destruction. If Saddam delivers on this in some form (which would be possible assuming he’s destroyed at least some weapons), and Blix reports that he is getting satisfactory co-operation for the moment, things will get really interesting (in the sense of the ancient Chinese curse). There are some big ifs here, but I’d say the chances of these two things happening are closer to 50 per cent than 5 per cent, so I’ll proceed on this assumption.

Given a positive report from Blix, there’s no chance of the UNSC endorsing an immediate strike. On the other hand, it’s virtually certain that Bush will dismiss the report. This will leave Blair in an incredibly difficult position, not helped by the exposure of his fraudulent dossier on Iraqi intelligence. If he backs a US invasion in these circumstances, anything less than a best-case outcome (a quick victory, hardly any US or British casualties, modest Iraqi casualties, the exposure of a large-scale weapons program, succesful democratisation) will end his career and perhaps even the Labor government. On the other hand, refusing to back Bush will be exceptionally difficult. All of this applies equally to Howard and to other putative allies like the Turks.

Conversely, the risks for the UN are great. Should Bush bypass the UN and deliver the best-case outcome, the advocates of unilateralism in the US will be strengthened immeasurably (at least until they run out of money – see three posts down).

My own view is that, viewing the Iraq problem, in isolation, the best outcome is one where the pressure is kept as high as possible, as long as possible, without resorting to war. The difficulty is that the expenditure of political and diplomatic capital on this issue has come at the expense of more dangerous problems like OBL, Kim Jong-Il and Israel-Palestine.