89 thoughts on “Weekend reflections

  1. @Donald Oats
    In ancient script (catholic) Don, it was called quaintly called “buying a ticket to the city but getting off at redfern.” Never mind…all sins are vanquished in the confession box, but whether you say two or three or six hail marys depends, to be sure, to be sure… on whether the priest has a hangover or not.

  2. Alice – the Higgins election comes after a few dreadful weeks of negative publicity. And in spite of your false claims the proportion of the primary vote increased for the Liberals. Higgins was a good result for Abbott.

    Next election I’m still tipping an ALP win.

  3. Oh and the polls suggest that women have no particular problem with Abbott. So your insights on that matter were not particularily useful.

  4. @TerjeP (say tay-a)
    Higgins was shocking result for the libs given no ALP candidate Terje. Abbott wont poll well – he isnt now. The negative publicity you refer to was weeks of the fruit loops getting up and letting rip with their delusionist ideas here, there and everywhere – which then made the papers. It may be negative publicity but they clearly have those ideas (Minchin, Joyce, Abbott). How does that make it negative publicity if its a fact thats what they think? Id call it the truth. Thats the trouble with the hard right. They have hard right views that are now unnaceptable to the majority of people.

  5. In the Werriwa by election in 2005 the Liberals did not stand a candidate. The net swing to the ALP was 2.9%. The absence of a major party opponent does not guarantee much in the way of extra votes. So the fact that there was no ALP opponent in the Higgins election does not mean that the Liberals should in normal circumstances have expected much of a swing in their favour. The fact that there was a slight swing in spite of recent negative publicity means that Higgins was a good result for Abbott.


  6. I’d be agreeing vaguely with terjeP – the by-elections show little movement from libs to Greens and a preference for labs to vote Green in the absence of their own candidate. On the upside labor voters did choose Greens over Libs, with little or no leakage.
    Not too surprising – I would think that in a country like Australia, where the mass media more or less speak with one voice, the delusionist campaign has been successful in neutralising the impact of global warming as an election decider. Maybe… the real electoral battle will be in the Senate as usual and hopefully enough people will throw off their history of same old same old to vote for the Greens – the only actual alternative.

  7. O”Dwyer now 38,320, Hamilton 25,446 with 75.32% of vote counted.

    If I am reading the table correctly, the swing against Labor is 31.08%, but the swing to the Greens is only 21.76%. Looks like a third of labor voters don’t want an ETS either.

    Bring on that double dissolution!

  8. @Paul Williams
    Hardly – the swing to the SEX party was about five times bigger than the swing to the libs Paul. The Greens still picked up 40% of the votes in a blue seat – you cant ignore that. Yes bring on the DD if this is the best you can do in liberal heartland.

  9. Nanks – I suspect that a lot of Liberals that might have traditionally voted for the Australian Democrats in the senate in order to “keep the bastards honest” or because of socially liberals views won’t so readily vote for the Greens as a proxy alternative. These voters abandoned the Democrats due to a drift too far to the left. I suspect they will mostly shift back to backing the Liberals in the senate, especially given that Labor is in government. The Greens mostly draw their support from ALP voters which must have the ALP quite worried at times.

  10. Terje, they are still going to lose city seats. The ALP picks up a couple of doctor’s wives seats as consolation should the Greens pick off a lower house seat inner city seat or two.
    This is how the Conservative/Liberal split will play out and a good thing too, since they seem to need time, really, to start to think SERIOUSLY about certain of the issues in play in contemporary life.
    Maybe a better attempt in 2113, when they’ve trimmed the dead wood, or finished the seasonal moult, or whatever.
    Because, at the moment they are one ragged looking budgie.

    Musing, it does seem to be shaping up a little like that election inWA awhile back, when Geoff Gallop won government.

  11. Looking at the line up of the shadow cabinet – Minchin, Joyce, Bronwyn Bishop, Kevin Andrews to name some – one could conclude that Abbott has abandoned the non rural seats.

  12. Sort of reminds me of when I was a kid on holidays, sitting down to watch “Abbott and Costello(singularity) meet Frankenstein”.
    Some good laughs and a few spooks.

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