Monday Message Board

It’s time for another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. As usual, civilised discussion and no coarse language. Lengthy side discussions to the sandpits, please.

38 thoughts on “Monday Message Board

  1. Just listening to an interview on Perth indy radio RTRFM with Assange.

    They were obviously very peeved about the WA Wikileaks senate preferences.

    Assange said that preferences were arranged by the Australian executives of the party, he said that in NSW it was an “error” and that in WA it was “symbolic” because he had “been advised that there was no way that the Nationals could win” and that therefore to preference indigenous footballer (West Coast Eagles) AFL player David Wirrpanda before Scott Ludlam was an important gesture but the preferences would definitely flow to the Greens.

    Assange has been sadly misinformed/lied to/misled.

    As little as a 1% swing against ALP and Greens in the Senate in WA will ensure that the Nationals get Ludlam’s seat and LNP has control of the Senate.

  2. Todays shocking statistic —– the percentage of total home loans taken by first home buyers last year in Victoria is 4%

  3. Troy @5 I think that at it’s core climate science denial in politics, as well as the broader community, is a consequence of a couple of decades of the clever use of marketing and lobbying by strongly affected business interests to influence the political system- and swing a large part of less affected business as well as a mainstream political party – in their favour. Sad to say that Australian business can collectively be persuaded to forgo doing what’s essential to address climate at some cost by simply being offered a go slow, least effort option at lower cost. Climate denial offers MP’s a way to justify ceding to Commerce and Industry’s pressure; if climate isn’t a problem then it’s not a profound betrayal of trust to not do anything about it. If climate isn’t a problem then actively preventing others doing anything is justified too. But if our MP’s can’t tell science from scam (that science comes from institutions of science ought to be a clue) they are incompetent. The problem is hard enough without climate deniers and obstructors having captured the LNP and the LNP winning Government on the back of decades of framing the problem as green fringe and bad for the economy.

  4. @Jim Rose
    Double dissolution? That’s exactly how the carbon tax will be repealed. Abbott has said it.

    In hindsight, Rudd should have went with a double dissolution. But that’s a highly risky play, which is probably why he didn’t.

  5. Something that might interest/bemuse – : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_complexity_index
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_economic_complexity

    The basic trend seems to be the more complex a country the more promising its future presumably because it can make unique contributions to global economic advance. The index is also supposed to be a great predictor of economic growth.

    Thus “the ECI is an attempt to synthesize the collective knowledge of a society”

    Germany Japan Australia Singapore and Switzerland top this ‘imagination’ metric. There are no countries which are poor with high complexity – presumably because the locals are scrambling for the basics. However there are a bunch of countries with low complexity and lots of money – presumably indicating they are wasting their resources.

    Stand outs are Kuwait, the Emirates and Qatar (improving) – no surprises there.

    and guess who – Australia with a negative index the only OECD country to have one it looks like.

    Even NZ, Saudi and Greece are still doing better. And of course Canada.

    Conclusion – so much for the clever country.

  6. under the 90% rule, the way to casting a valid vote safely is to number all the senate boxes except the third senate candidates for labor and the liberals.

    only the third candidate for labor will be the candidate needing minor party preferences to get over the line.

    numbering the 1 and 2 candidates of the major parties will not matter because they are already elected on full quotas of their own before preferences are distributed so your preferences will be exhaust with them. there will be three full senate quotas for liberals and two full quotas for labor in each state.

    In Qld, katter will be competing with the greens for the last seat. number all of his candidates but katter’s number 1 candidates so your preferences do not flow to their one senate electable candidate. katter may get a quota on his own perhaps with a little help from Labor

  7. On reflection, all you need to do – if you only want to vote for 3 candidates, but still validly exhaust the rest, you would put: 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, 7….etc.

    The “4, 4, 4,” is sufficient to stop allocating after 3 but continuing numerically afterwards safely keeps the vote “valid” per section 270.

  8. @Fran Barlow
    “There are quite a few uglies I’d like to exclude — …. “Stable Population Party” …”

    This comment represents an ugly political ideology which is insidiously overtaking the Greens and completely disregards the first and most important of our core beliefs, Ecological Sustainability. Advocating population growth is an abrogation of reason for an environmental party and shows how much the loony left has gained control of policy making.
    I see nothing so ugly in the Stable Population Party.
    http://www.populationparty.org.au/Philosophy-Objectives-Core-Values

  9. @Salient Green

    For my information could you elaborate a bit more on your perception of what is happening here within the Greens assuming you are talking from inside the ‘our’ party?

    Why I’m curious is I’m slightly associated with a CASSE group http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steady_state_economy and have numerous ‘green’ colleagues and friends so am very interested in this philosophical conundrum and have seen supporting indications.

    Media bull aside one thing which seems to be emerging is a split in green thinking brought on by a failure in my opinion to face what the sums are telling us at least in principle at green policy level i.e.:
    – if we are to maintain 7 billion decreasing to maybe 5 billion equitably the global standard of living aspired to must drop dramatically – implying a change in society that makes achieving Marx’s idea of socialism a walk in the park.
    – this flies in the face of social progressives in the greens and labor’s reasonable desire to bring the poorer parts of Australia up to a median standard of living.

    From what I’ve seen it seems to be partly associated with ‘Green’ becoming and ideology first, ecofeminism, partly FOE policy, partly opposition to paternalistic neo-colonial policies regarding population control, and part maybe socialist workers messing with left politics as they always have.

    That said I don’t think this is an easy problem to solve or find a ‘sweet spot’ with so please understand this is not meant to be a damnation of the greens but rather a deep interest in whether they can find a solution to “live simpler so others can do likewise and all can enjoy a Good Life.

    As to the Stable Population Party – after a look at their web site and policies and the Wiki entry I am not seriously bothered by them either way – as there is even less of substance in their policies than there is substance in Tony Abbot’s utterings which are for the most part content free (and where there is content it doesn’t add up). Apart from motherhood statements the majority of which are unexceptionable in fact – as to the annoying one – SPP seems to be more obsessed with Kiwis than any big picture population policy to judge by its details and some other ad hoc unrealistic numerical targets.

  10. what future a Stable Population Party in a world of below replacement fertility? subsidies to increase fertility the replacment level of 2.1?

    Ecologists are terrible oracles.

  11. The syrian rebals were never going to win other than as a prop for a palace coup.

    The media says nothing on why the rulers of the other middle east countries are backing the rebels,

    None other than turkey are democratic or want democracy in their own country.

  12. see http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/abbott-faces-chaos-in-senate-20130831-2sxqz.html for rubbish how abbot will not have a good show in the senate

    Pauline Hanson has a serious chance of defeating Senator Arthur Sinodinos, for one of the two final seats in NSW.

    Family First, which won a Senate seat in Victoria in 2004 with 1.9 per cent of the vote, could do it again, rated a 50/50 chance of unseating Liberal senator Helen Kroger.

    The Coalition is odds on to lose a further seat in Queensland, probably to country singer James Blundell of Way Out West fame, running for Bob Katter’s Australia Party, but possibly to the Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party, One Nation or the Australian Christians.

    In South Australia, the No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics are given a strong chance of unseating prominent Green Sarah Hanson-Young, even if they get as little as 0.15 per cent of the vote.

    The liberals will win three quotas in each state so that will take them to 36. The WA Nats are a good chance to win the 4th seat in WA.

    The exception is SA where nick no pokies will get well over a quota but half his preferences will go to the liberals to keep the greens out and elect a third liberal. Still 36 plus nick, DLP and Katter. Katter will stop a green senator in QLD.

    The greens have more to worry about because labour will win 2 quotas in every state but not much more to be able to lend preference the greens.

    The greens will be fighting Hanson for the last seat in NSW. The greens will fight family first or the DLP for the last seat in Vic.

    once nick no pokies preferences are distributed, the last seat be decided in SA. The minor party preferences will not even be distributed because sic have been elected already.

    will any green senators be elected?

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