There’s been a lot of discussion about the fact that the Queensland LNP needs a Plan B, in case they are returned to government, but Campbell Newman loses his seat of Ashgrove.
No one seems to have noticed that they really need a Plan C, for the case when neither party wins an absolute majority, which would almost certainly imply a loss for Newman. A couple of points arise here
* Both Newman and Labor leader Anna Palaszczuk have ruled out a minority government. But with Newman gone, some other LNP leader might say his position was inoperative
* The Governor needs to call on someone to attempt the formation of a government. That could be Newman, Palaszczuk, some other LNP figure or even an independent.
John Quiggin 
Is there a realistic Plan D, where there’s a new election because no one can form government?
Queensland is in dire straits with little to recommend either side and voter dissent sure to install some petty independents into all manner of seats, rocking the boat and frothing for their individual causes. Campell Newman has done a good job, but its not good enough when the MSM are ranged against him at every turn.
Of course, the Monarchists of our country, who seem to make up a slight majority of opinion, at least in Queensland, are just about sick to the back teeth with Newman and Abbott’s so-called Royal-freindly charade – which turns out to be more friendly to the rabid socialist union/employee industrial relations cartel than our British Peers.
The only light at the end of the tunnel as far as livestock producers in rural Queensland is the rumour that Abbott is mooted to announce a ban on Halal Pet Food, and will Stop The Halal once he’s dealt with the “Illegal Terrorwave” that is obverrunning us, and taking our liberty and bankrupting the country and stealing things from orinary citizens because there are no behavioural protocols in place when the rampage through the society and also are causing great unemployment and cost of living increases.
Sadly this election is between an incumbent that has demonstrated that it isn’t up to governing the State well, and an opposition that has not yet proven it is up to the job either.
What is doubly sad is that I think I may have used exactly the same words in this blog the day before the last State election.
We deserve better from both parties.
John, all intriguing, and I agree, we have little faith in either major party, both are addicted to coal industry stranded assets. But the LNP are most on-the-nose right now. There could be a hung parliament, with those participating having to learn new skills of negotiation (not bullying). Frankly, it would do them good and make for better-quality legislation.
So, what happens if Campbell Newman loses his seat in the Queensland Parliament? There is a cunning plan that he has hinted at. Professor of Constitutional Law Anne Twomey says he may still be Premier, although out of Parliament, rejected by voters and un-elected but with an LNP majority. Personally, I think it would be most unwise for Newman to cling on, when clearly, he is the problem.
Just imagine Campbell Newman, rejected by voters in the ambush election he called, returning as if from the dead. We already know the LNP have little attachment to democracy. Campbell Newman, who will not accept defeat, but will rule by edict as Emperor of Queensland. Will he? This is outrageous!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-30/campbell-newman-could-remain-premier-if-seat-lost-expert-says/6056538
@KP
I can’t work out if this is a Poe.
But this bit: “Campell Newman has done a good job, but its not good enough when the MSM are ranged against him at every turn.”
I don’t read Murdoch’s hate sheets but like most people I can’t avoid seeing the headlines on the unsold piles of them at the shops. Murdoch has run a full-on pro-LNP/Newman front page campaign for the last three weeks.
PS: On the Brisbane Times running coverage (at 1:39pm) they have a snippet from the – Murdoch staged – “debate” today. On the question of his claim that “bikies run the ALP”, or whatever the silly allegation was, Newman said something like “It was on the front page of the paper” and the crowd burst out laughing.
Now folks, we all need bit of this stuff, below ….
‘Satire isn’t just entertainment, according to the authors of a new book. It’s a vital function of democratic society and a way to broach taboo subjects, especially in times of crisis.’
“Robust satire is often a sign of crisis and the ability to share and consume it is a sign of a free society,” says Sophia McClennen, professor of international affairs and comparative literature and director of Penn State’s Center for Global Studies.
“We see satire emerge when political discourse is in crisis and when it becomes important to use satirical comedy to put political pressure on misinformation, folly, and the abuse of power.”
Now, go forth, and put the LNP last, for the sake of this State and the community.
http://www.futurity.org/satire-politics-845712/
“Both Newman and Labor leader Anna Palaszczuk have ruled out a minority government.”
Well, a safe assumption these days is that everything that comes out of the mouth of a politician is a lie. I always assume all politicians are lying unless I know extensive and numerous empirical facts which indicate a pollie might actually be telling the truth about something. I also assume everything in the MSM is a lie again unless I know extensive and numerous empirical facts which could support the possibility that some MSM statement is actually true.
Motto: Always assume they are telling lies. You will be right a great majority of the time.
@Willy Bach
Yes, the Queensland Constitution empowers the Governor to appoint a person as Premier.
There is no requirement for them to be a Parliamentarian.
Maybe they should appoint Rupert Murdoch. He already thinks he runs the country.
So….. Does anyone know what the rate of GST is ??
“GST is a broad-based tax of 10% on most goods, services and other items sold or consumed in Australia.” – ATO website.
I think this is common knowledge amongst most literate, numerate adults in Australia. Not sure why Annastacia Palaszczuk slipped up with a “pass”. I am willing to be kind and accept her explanation that it was early, she was in her third interview (or so) and she needed a coffee.
It’s not actually make or break knowledge in itself. A state premier cannot set it and can always get a briefing about it and any other relevant other details before any COAG meeting or even have an aside with an aide at the meeting.
Megan, you may agree about this story from 2013 from the Brisbane Times. The Slightly Twisted Cafe in Nundah banned the Murdoch press chip-wraps from their premises. Good on them:
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/brisbane-cafe-bans-murdoch-press-20130808-2rlg6.html
The LNP is being coy about what will happen if they win government without Newman: no-one will want Newman back, no-one will let him have three months to find a safe seat, and no-one will vacate their seat in his favour. So Tim Nicholls could become Premier, which means Labor has been debating the wrong opponent, one who has escaped close scrutiny by the media. My warning is: be careful what you wish for; you may not like what (or who) takes Newman’s place. He has been easy to hate. Once gone, the LNP agenda – always pushed harder behind front-man Newman by the LNP party boffins who are its true authors – will I suspect be reasserted as “under new management” and with “a new mandate” (despite all contrary evidence from the ballot box). Newman won government for the LNP but has now served his purpose; he is expendable. He knows better than any the falsity of the absurd claim that if he loses, the LNP loses. His colleagues are hardly better than smiling assassins as they stand behind him. Look at the way their eyes glaze over when they answer questions on their plans B, C…n. They may have a Plan B, C or whatever, as yet hidden from the voters, but do they have alternative policies to cope with a loss, or to negotiate for in a minority government? Again, I suspect not. And there’s another question: if Labor wins, will they want Annastacia to stay the term as Premier? Others will have ambitions…
@Megan
I am pretty sure it is a Poe Megan. The best Poe rants look just plausible enough to be uttered by some total crank rather than obvious parody.
I am sure there are people wacky enough to have composed KP’s text in good faith, but they tend to hang out in the Blotosphere so I’d be surprised if they would find this place.
Peter, yes, “The LNP is being coy about what will happen if they win government without Newman”. It’ll be a bloodbath and I look forward to seeing them tear one-another apart. A polite hung parliament would be far more constructive.
@m0nty
Going by past history (not specifically in Queensland, but in similar ‘Westminster’ systems), there is a possible sequence of events which leads to a new election, although whether you would think it counts as a ‘plan’ I can’t say (decide that for yourself).
It could look roughly like this.
Part I could begin with the Governor inviting the leader of one of the major parties to form a government. It could end with:
A the leader declining the invitation; or
B the leader making the attempt, but then going back to the Governor to report failure; or
C the leader forming a government, Parliament meeting, and the government being defeated in a decisive vote
Part II could then begin with the Governor inviting the leader of the other major party to form a government, and it too could end with A or B or C.
And then the next step could be another election.
This is a possibility, but I would rate it low-probability.
@J-D
Low probability. Thanks. Ill ignore it then.
Newman accused of blackmailing voters –>
http://www.skynews.com.au/news/national/2015/01/27/newman-accused-of-blackmailing-voters.html
One question that is raised by J-D’s comment @14 is whether there are any cases in Australia of a party leader being invited by a Governor or Governor-General to attempt to form a government in a hung parliament, and declining the invitation.
@Fran Barlow
Yes, I’d agree. But it’s a ‘textbook’ example!
@Megan
What’s a Poe please? I can’t find anything on google
Geez;
I may not know all there is to the so-called Westminster but where is there any example of a Governor inviting the leader of one of the major parties to form a government and the leader declining the invitation?
Oops, Paul Norton has already covered the obvious.
@Val
In cyberspace a ‘poe’ is a parody/strawman of someone whose attitudes one despises, designed to stir similarly minded folk to the author of the poe to pile on in outrage.
Some poes may well be contrived by people lacking firm convictions but seeking to garner attention, exercise their creative writing skills or threadjack — and so may be seen as a kind of trolling.
Of course, one interesting consequence of composing poes is that on blogs with a large and diverse readership, there are always some who will take it at face value and solidarise with the sentiment.
This may serve the interests of the poe author because he or she can say that others from the group affirm the strawman, but of course these could also be poes. After a while, it can be hard in cyberspace to distinguish between parody and good faith assertion by cranks.
@J-D
Thanks for that. I’d say the most likely scenario there if things get that pear-shaped is that the leaders both try but fail to herd the independent cats, i.e. B from the LNP followed by B from Labor. Your C option there is about as crazy as it gets, but it is Queensland so it’s not a non-zero chance!
@Val
Urban dictionary is your friend. BTW, we have seen some brilliant Poe-try in the last few years.
@Fran Barlow
Also to be borne in mind now is the probable presence of PSMTs, (Paid Social Media Trolls). Office of PM and Cabinet are reportedly spending $5mill+ on such operatives. This is a claim openly expressed by the federal ALP leadership, in emails to supporters. Am unaware of their actual sources, but assume that they are able to garner this information due to their parliamentary ‘in’.
Given this LNP government’s secrecy, it’s a fortunate thing we have even this much intelligence.
My assumption is that they are not only monitoring, but most likely actively participating (effectively, that is, disrupting), on blogs, but possibly targeted Twitter accounts, and so on.
It has finally dawned on the LNP that social media, rather than being a sideline nuisance, to be largely ignored, has to be addressed. In the meantime, you just refer to it as ‘graffiti’.
@Fran Barlow
I thought Poe had something to do with it being impossible to distinguish genuine nutters from parody.
Just reminding Queenslanders:
We have optional preferential voting.
That means you do NOT have to number every box. You can look at what’s on offer and only put numbers next to the ones you want and leave the others blank.
I’ll be using my vote to reject the ALP/LNP duopoly.
PS: In an earlier thread a question was posed about putting a cross or tick instead of a number. The material I got from the ECQ seems to say that a “mark” against only one name will be counted as a vote (if all other boxes are left blank).
Further speculation here about what the Governor might do, and what the LNP might do, and what the current Premier might do should the LNP win or lose but Newman loses anyway, seems to ignore the high probability that the LNP party room would not accept an unseated Newman as leader. Newman is gone. As Barnaby Joyce would say, “I’d put my house and my money on it!”
@Val
It comes from Nathan Poe.
There’s some entries on Wikipedia under “Poe’s Law”.
Fran’s explanation, and John Brookes’, broadly cover it.
One part from Wiki:
And, Paul H, it’s more widespread than that (and certainly not confined to the LNP). The CIA does “persona management”, WikiLeaks exposed quite a bit about it from memory.
@Paul Norton
None in Australian Federal politics, and none I can think of in Australian State politics, but in 1880 the Marquess of Hartington declined the Queen’s invitation to form a government, and I think a further search would turn up other examples in British history.
@Ivor
The post is surely a covert application for the job by Professor John Quiggin.
I’m not against, mind you. Queensland could do a lot worse.
@J-D
Your claim was that a “Governor” would invite, and this may be refused.
What happened between a “Queen”, over 100 years ago, is not relevant. There is no Constitution over the British system and they do not have a democracy.
@James Wimberley
Rats! My secret plan has been exposed!
If Newman goes but wants to stay in politics the easiest option may be to tip out a long serving LNP seat warmer. The ‘tipping out’ would be pressure to resign from party stalwarts. Newman then steps in as a casual vacancy or perhaps after an easy by-election depending on electoral laws. In Tasmania former ALP premier Giddings may resign to allow a defeated candidate to step in. Link. However this could backfire if Newman’s new electorate is miles away from where he lives.
Peter Wellington for Premier in that case.
At least the guy has some integrity.
@Ivor
I didn’t say it would happen. I said it was possible, but I also said the probability was low.
Under section 43 of the Queensland Constitution ministers are appointed by the Governor, and under section 34 ministers hold office at the Governor’s pleasure. That’s the only way anybody gets into a Queensland Cabinet. Campbell Newman is Premier because he accepted an invitation from the Governor to form a Cabinet; the same has been true of every Queensland Premier before him and will be true of the next one as well.
@Hermit
I have doubts about this.
It was raised in the interview with Anne Twomey on ABC 24.
The examples usually cited are Canadian. As I recall Twomey pointed out that Canadian culture is different to Australian culture.
She noted Canadians held to the view that if a party received a majority – the leader had the right to be returned to Parliament and the engineering of a seat was not such a problem.
In Australia however, there is a much stronger emphasis on electorate members being Capital-l Local members, and any perceived favouritism would be scorned through an election campaign.
Unfortunately – by creating a unicameral system – Queensland has denied itself the flexibility Newman may now be wishing for. A rejected Premier can reenter through a Party list cum vacancy, to a proportionally elected chamber.
@J-D
What are you going on about?
Why on earth are you now claiming that whether a Governor “would” invite has low probability???
I think most reasonable people will understand that it is almost certain that the Governor will invite someone to form government.
Going back to the topic of this post, “LNP needs a Plan C”…
It’s actually the people who need a Plan C. Plan A (LNP) and Plan B (ALP) both consistently fail the people. Therefore the people need a Plan C.
The Greens appear to be the best bet for a Plan C if they can eventually become a major party. This is if we persist in hoping and believing that bourgeois democracy can deliver anything that the ordinary people want.
Queensland going Green is as likely as a rabbi eating a ham sandwich. The state has great emphasis on ‘resources’ of the kind which mostly seem to generate CO2 when ignited. Queensland economically comatose one minute inactive the next.
@Ivor
I know the Governor will invite somebody to form a government. I didn’t say that was a low probability.
I said that the sort of scenario I outlined in response to monty’s original question was, although formally possible, a low probability.
@Ivor
In 1986, when Neville Wran retired, Barrie Unsworth was chosen to succeed him as Labor leader and as Premier. At the time he was a member of the upper house, not the lower house. A Labor member of the lower house who’d been there a long time (Brian Bannon, the member for Rockdale) resigned his seat and Unsworth was chosen as the Labor candidate for the resulting by-election, which he won, although by a much narrower margin than had been generally expected.
Thanks Fran and everyone for the interesting info re Poes. Learn something new everyday on blogs!
On the subject of the election, has there been any exit polling yet? I would be so happy if the result was a hung parliament. Cmon Queenslanders, you can do it!
@J-D
is contradicted by:
Please do not play these games. You are just piling confusion on top of confusion.
Unsworth did not loose his own seat as leader, and was then parachuted in to a safe seat.
A bicameral system is different to a unicameral system.
If Unsworth had been defeated in his parliamentry seat and then was dropped into Rockdale, then the situation may be similar.
I am sure there are many examples of parliamentarians switching seats for all manner of convenient circumstances.
But Campbell may have to rely on being a defeated candidate – ejected from parliament by the electorate – then trying to weedle his way back in. He does not have the excuse of being a Upper House member needing a Lower House seat through well accepted convention.
In regard to James Wimberley’s flippant comment at 33, I wonder John if you have considered standing as an independent in Ryan at the next Federal election. I think you would actually reasogoododnablece of winning, and you would be a great addition to the federal parliament. In Ryan you would have a better chance of winning as an independent than as an ALP or Greens candidate.
I meant ‘a good chance of winning’ not the gobbledygook that was posted.
Rarely is exit polling done at the state level – wouldn’t help that much in Qld unless it was done in regional areas as well as Brisbane @Val
@Ivor
There is no inconsistency between saying that the probability of this is low and saying that the probability of that is not low. Recognising that this and that are two different things is not a game. I can see that you are experiencing some confusion between them, which I agree is unfortunate.
In 1904 the Governor of Queensland offered to commission Robert Philp as Premier, but Philp declined. So although such an incident would be unusual, it would not be completely without precedent, even Australian precedent.