LNP needs a Plan C

There’s been a lot of discussion about the fact that the Queensland LNP needs a Plan B, in case they are returned to government, but Campbell Newman loses his seat of Ashgrove.

No one seems to have noticed that they really need a Plan C, for the case when neither party wins an absolute majority, which would almost certainly imply a loss for Newman. A couple of points arise here

* Both Newman and Labor leader Anna Palaszczuk have ruled out a minority government. But with Newman gone, some other LNP leader might say his position was inoperative

* The Governor needs to call on someone to attempt the formation of a government. That could be Newman, Palaszczuk, some other LNP figure or even an independent.

104 thoughts on “LNP needs a Plan C

  1. Just a comment on one of the many issues turning up in this thread: the only “KP” I am aware of is Kevin Pietersen, international cricketer of renown, if not cricketer of mystery. But I struggle to think of any reason why he would want to intervene in a discussion about Queensland Politics. Meanwhile as I write the first poll figures are coming in, and the results are already showing that win or lose Anastacia may find herself with a team full of rivals.

  2. @Doug
    Apparently there was some Doug and it may have predicted what we’re seeing now. Don’t want to get ahead of myself, but my this looks interesting.

    Apparently Laurue whatsisname on channel nine said something about Abbott being dead meat if the LNP loses Queensland?

  3. Laurie Oaks of course – sorry
    From Twitter:
    Geezlouise as @Turlow1
    BOOM Laurie Oakes just dropped the ‘Dead Meat’ bomb on Abbott if Galaxy exit polling is right #auspol #qldvotes
    Geezlouise @Turlow1 1 hour ago 15 retweets | 2 replies

  4. Newman is gone in Ashgrove.

    I’m still hopeful for a hung/minority government.

    Watching the ungracious snide smugness of Jackie Trad on channel 9 (so early) gives us a glimpse of the ugliness ahead if ALP wins outright.

    Palaszcuk should watch her back if she wins – the faceless men will be already planning who they really want running Qld.

    PS: Looking forward to tomorrow’s Murdoch front page headline:

    IT WOZ US WOT LOST IT!

  5. @J-D

    What precedent. Governors often offer commissions to Members of Parliament.

    At which election was Philp booted out of his seat as Premier (as was Campbell Newman )?
    At which by-election did he weedle his way back in to Parliament to regain his position as Premier?

    Do you understand the scenario facing Newman? Do you understand the word “precedent”?

  6. @Ivor

    Once again, regrettably, you’re experiencing some confusion between this and that.

    Philp’s declining an invitation from the Governor to form a government would not be a precedent for that possible scenario but would be a precedent for this possible scenario, both of which possible scenarios have been under discussion in earlier comments.

  7. @J-D

    So which applies to any statement you have tried to make?

    How is Philp any type of precedent for this Newman or that Newman?

    Do you understand the scenario facing Newman? Do you understand the word “precedent”?

    Actually I doubt that Newman will even get a chance. His colleagues may well try to exorcise the past by distancing him asap.

    Is Abbott next?

  8. Will be some nervous Coalition back-benches tonight – looking at Newman, then Abbott, Newman, Abbott…..

  9. Looks like Plan C could be trotted out for some exercise—if only they can find it. Makes you wonder how the LNP would have travelled if PM Tony Abbott had gone to Qld to offer his support: could have been a wipe-out!

  10. Concession speech on loss of Queensland election (extracts):

    “It is absolutely clear that Queenslanders have spoken with the loudest possible voice,” “Days like today are very, very tough days … (but) it is important we remember who we are.

    “We .. transformed this state …
    “The Queensland of today is simply unrecognisable from the Queensland we inherited when we came into government …

    “We have a record that we can be very proud of.
    “No doubt the issue of asset sales will feature in media commentary,”
    “But I know in my heart they were absolutely necessary…I will never regret doing what had to be done…”

    “condolences to … MPs who lost their seats, they have served their communities … with great distinction.

    And another:

    “I also want to reflect on the MPs that lost their seats tonight..

    “I just say this, ladies and gentlemen: When the history of this government is written, people should look long and hard at a political team who did the hard yards and didn’t bitch and moan. They got on with the job because they knew they were doing the right thing for Queensland.

    “So to all those who lost their seats, I am sensationally proud of you. I just wish the community knew that you were all men and women of conviction and I wish you the very best in your future career.”

    Can anyone tell them apart?

  11. Well done!

    It’s ‘Goodbye Assets’ I’m afraid.

    The ALP are irredeemable neo-cons, and we’ve just given them a “mandate” (at least, the Greens did with directing people to preference the ALP).

    It can’t be “sale”, and “lease” won’t do. Maybe we’ll simply “float” them like we did with Telstra?

  12. Well, well, the ALP was not expecting to win in Queensland, nor did they expect to govern.

    But Campbell Newman just proved yet again that he is incapable of learning from his errors of judgement, as he explains it:

    “No doubt the issue of asset sales will feature in media commentary,”
    “But I know in my heart they were absolutely necessary…I will never regret doing what had to be done…”

    So, there we have it. Newman was going to foist the unwanted asset sales and privatisations, what ever we thought of it, come hell or high water. What a good thing this man’s limitless arrogance has been curtailed; how wonderful for him to be out of public life and off the public payroll, good riddance. Get out and stay out!

    Next comes Tony Abbott, who is very lucky that no one has paid attention to his government’s immensely ‘successful’ sale of Medibank Private. Oh, the sale went OK. But the newly liberated entity is already jacking up premiums, tightening up claim eligibility and sacking workers. You may as well have sold it to Mitt Romney, that awful vulture capitalist. Medibank Private now private enterprise will now be colluding with the rest of the health insurance cartel about squeezing more money out of the public.

    Oh yes, Abbott is next. We have a very long list of grievances.

  13. Try these:

    1. ‘‘I pledge to you that we will conduct ourselves with humility, grace and dignity we will work for all Queenslanders regardless of their vote tonight.’’

    2. “I want to unite Queensland. I want to bring Queensland back together,”

    Or:

    1. ‘‘It will be long, it will be hard, but we’re going to get on and deliver on that job starting with tomorrow.’’

    2. “Tomorrow, we begin a brand new chapter in Queensland history.”

    A big win for the ALP. A huge loss for democracy.

    Congratulations ALP fans, well done in your chosen sport. But I would prefer a functioning democracy to a facile “win”, and today we got the latter not the former.

  14. Ummm, Willy you’ve just illustrated my point better than I ever could.

    I suppose thanks, and ‘congratulations’, are in order.

    That quote was from Bligh’s concession speech – March 2012.

  15. Megan, thanks, my mistake. How alike the two neoliberal parties really are. Those words could have been the ones that Newman spoke, but they were Anna Bligh’s – how ironic. Yes, you’ve just illustrated my next point that the public doesn’t want asset sales who-ever is doing them.

    So, Annastacia Palaszczuk already knows this is the way to oblivion. She must get it that privatisation is not such a good idea. If you want to stay in power it is better to keep in close touch with the constituency. She clearly has no mandate and nor have the LNP if and when they recover from this trouncing. I suggest they all abandon false religion; rigorously examine evidence before taking action, and read John Quiggin and Bob Walker & Betty Con Walker. There is other literature too that shows the flaws in the privatisation argument.

    Interesting times? You bet.

  16. It will be interesting to see how long Labor adhere to their committments to not sell government assets. I suspect it won’t be long before the asset selling nonsense rears its head again in some “innovative” form. Labor will then start pushing it again.

    The public’s flip-flopping between LNP and ALP shows the public hasn’t realised these two parties are the same. Until both neoliberal parties are rejected permanently and sent into oblivion, we will make no progress towards a better society and better economics.

  17. It looks like the LNP will need a plan “D”, disband.

    Now the ALP has to figure out how to get an economy moving without focusing on construction and mining.

    A good start would be to learn from what ever Melbourne did to allow its cafe culture to flourish, then move those initiatives out into small business universally. Get that far and the rest will take care of itself. If half of the small businesses in the state took on one person, there would be no unemployment, and no fiscal shortfall. Its that simple.

  18. @Ivor

    In Comment #21 you asked ‘where is there any example of a Governor inviting the leader of one of the major parties to form a government and the leader declining the invitation?’; the example I gave of Philp in 1904 is a response to that question.

    Had you perhaps forgotten that you asked that question?

  19. Newman gone, Liberals back in their box, Abbott next?

    Can the supporters of Julie Bishop and Malcolm Turnbull somehow combine to mount a leadership challenge?

    Abbott is probably madly rewriting his speech for the National Press Club on Monday.

    Poor ‘ol capitalism, all the changes it needs to make to maintain profits seem to upset electorates and unions and social movements- world wide.

  20. @J-D

    I never said Philp was not invited.

    You know that the context was Campbell Newman.

    You have been asked:

    At which election was Philp booted out of his seat as Premier (as was Campbell Newman )?
    At which by-election did he weedle his way back in to Parliament to regain his position as Premier?

    Stop playing games.

  21. Ivor and J-D, could you please take your argument to the sandpit? It has been making this thread boring for others for some time ( at least I feel so) and it now appears irrelevant since the LNP can’t form government.

    There are a lot of interesting issues about the Queensland election, such as: how far is it a vote against privatisation, or Neo-liberalism more broadly? Can the ALP really change? Do the statements on communitarian values and trust by Kate Jones and Annastacia Palaszczuk ( see I have learnt how to spell it!) mean anything? I am not a Queenslander and don’t know how to judge this, so would appreciate comments from people there. However could I also ask, Megan and Ikon, please don’t just respond with knee jerk cynicism.

  22. Oddly, last night’s result means that the LNP no longer needs a Plan C.

    My prediction for 2015 about Abbott no longer leading the LNP and the regime being turfed out now looks even better. 😉

  23. There was a federal Liberal politician on the tv last night who asked how governments could handle the demands for services without the option of selling public assets. Do they have no imagination or are they intentionally playing dumb?

    Is it political suicide to suggest the removal of tax concessions on superannuation or the removal of negative gearing for property speculation? What about the demand for services from rampant population growth? Can we thank Howard and the subsequent lot for creating this mess?

    It seems to me that a recession will sort this out. And that looks like happening soon.

  24. For Queenslanders getting rid of one set of neo-cons was an obvious and easy start, Megan.

    Where as now, the Queensland electorate has to face the music and get it’s collective act together. Queenslanders can’t keep on chop and change government at a whim. They should determine how they want to live fairly within their means. How to ensure a future for our children and do justice to our ancestors. And then elect a government accordingly.

    Further, ozpolitics would be more effective with less focus on growth, profit and productivity and more emphasis on innovation, culture and wealth, for while at least.

  25. @Val

    I would describe my cynicism as carefully and studiously arrived at, rather than knee-jerk.

    The ALP has shown no signs whatsoever of changing. After Qld 2012, NSW 2011 and Cwth 2013 there has been no real change only blandishments and small-target strategy.

  26. How are those council changes shaping up in your area Ootz?

    A country friend was preferring losing state governments in favour a reshaped Federal Government and stronger regional councils. What do you think of that prospect?

  27. @Val

    You may be better off not characterising or labelling others. If you find things boring, then try selectively reading posts.

    Most people will find various comments boring, that is life, but few have the gall to cry for censorship. I find those who prattle on and on about “neo-liberalism” incredibly boring as these folks have so idea what is really happening to the global economy.

    I find focusing on statements from politicians about trust and values – dead boring. This is not what drives politics.

    Some may find dealing with capitalism either too difficult, or too boring. So what?

    I wouldn’t get too fixated on the Queensland election – it is great fodder for the chattering classes – but the real problem is the looming debt and deflation, and the rejection of austerity/asset sales strategy of capitalists to protect their own profits. This impacts everywhere.

  28. @David C.

    “Do they have no imagination or are they intentionally playing dumb?”

    With neoliberals these days it’s hard to tell. I think neoliberal followers, including many backbenchers, simply have no imagination. This lack of imagination comes from a lack of learning including their having little or no knowledge of history and the history of economic thought. They are not aware of feasible alternatives.

    Their leaders on the other hand are conscious liars, manipulators and moral entrepreneurs who deliberately falsify history and economics whilst labelling those suffering from the systemic problems of capitalism (poverty, unemployment, homelessness and inequality) as morally deviant individuals who are lazy, reprehensible and unworthy.

    Selling assets to run a country clearly is a process that has an end point. When the assets are all sold, then annual revenue (as taxation enabling space for government spending) is the only possible way to run government and government services. Of course, we have all done this discussion to death on this blog. We all know that many avenues of increasing government revenue exist. These avenues include removing perverse inventives which distort the economy so there would be a double benefit of increasing revenue and removing distortions. For example, fossil fuel subsidies should be removed, with a third benefit of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Negative gearing could be removed also.

    The above two measures alone of remove fossil fuel subsidies (saving $10 billion p.a.) and remove negative gearing (saving $4 billion p.a.) would enable another $14 billion to be spent on necessary services for the unemployed and poorest in our community. In point of fact, that $14 billion dollars per annum would be enough to implement a Job Guarantee and move all 700,000 or so unemployed onto a minimum wage guarantee job. An enormous amount of community and ecologically focused work could be done once such a Job Guarantee scheme was fully set up.

    There are about 560 local councils in Australia. I am sure each would be happy to receive 100 places for workers who they could recruit and train locally (via progressive implementation) and have the wages of these workers guranteed as being fully paid in perpetuity by the Federal Job Guarantee Scheme. There are so many things that could be very easily done to solve unemployment (for example) in Australia. And there are many ways such schemes could easily be paid for nationally.

  29. The establishment media clacquers either genuinely don’t get it or are also pretending.

    ABC, Fairfax and from what I can tell without actually reading it, Murdoch – all blaming everything but the elephant.

    Jason Wilson in the Grauniad gets it:

    Labor may be the beneficiaries of an austerity backlash in Queensland, but it’s not because they have renounced economic orthodoxy, or sought to oppose its consequences. Just as Newman was elected because he was not Bligh, Anastasia Palaszczuk is relying on disaffection with the incumbent. All over Australia, the electoral see-saw is accelerating, with short or nonexistent honeymoons, and more governments in trouble within a single term.

    Politicians and large sections of the media are still desperately trying to pretend that this does not signal a deeper problem. Australia may not be deep enough into its own version of economic crisis to produce a radical alternative party of government. But there are signs to suggest that here, as in other parts of the world, the idea that the era in which we could imagine no alternative to doctrinaire economic liberalism is coming to an end.

  30. There is a proposal for a new Darling Downs council, separate from Toowoomba’s urban council that would work for the rural areas.

    Click to access 2014.pdf

    It looks and sounds ok; they point out the problems that CSG brings as well as the possible wealth creation and there is an acknowledgement of the social capital that this area has; that is there are lots of older women still alive who do all the community building stuff that just isn’t being done any more so the old community halls fall down.

    But who knows what to think? I don’t, because there is no local newspaper that provides political or social discussion about the people who are doing this, what their values are and their background so I could decide if I trust them or if I need to examine their language more closely for signs of that hypocrisy that infects the neo-liberal type person.

    It could happen though – that there will more discussion about how to get what we want from our governments – as people out here start to understand what electronic graffiti can do for them and then learn to use it, if they can get connected, that is.

  31. @Ivor

    I have decided to oblige Val by responding to you in the Sandpit rather than here. Anybody who does want to see my response can find it there, and anybody like Val who doesn’t want to be troubled by it will be able to avoid it.

  32. @Megan

    I have just been looking at the ABC election reports on the Web, and reading the bits they’ve quoted from Campbell Newman’s post-election speech and from Annastacia Palaszczuk’s post-election speech.

    One bit they quote from Annastacia Palaszczuk is this:
    ‘Let’s have a consensus government where we bring people together, where we listen and where we unite.’

    That could come from a post-election speech by the leader of any political party, or at least nearly any political party: Labor, Coalition, Greens, Palmer United, United Kingdom Independence Party, Five Star Movement, Podemos, To Potami, …

    Another bit quoted from her speech is this:
    ‘Can I thank the union movement: because it it is the union movement that stands up each and every day and fights for better conditions for workers across this state.’

    That could never come from a Coalition leader’s speech, never.

  33. @J-D

    That could never come from a Coalition leader’s speech, never.

    Actually I wouldn’t put it past Malcolm Turnbull should he become leader. Many left-Liberals see a role for the union movement in standing up for better conditions, and would have no reason not to thank them for sticking to this agenda.

    All centrist politics includes this trade union function and even seek out trade unions under the hoary theory – we are all in this together.

  34. Jack Strocchi brags about his political betting status on Sportsbet.com. *

    28/01/15 Winning Party QLD State Election Labor @ 6.00 Closed 6.00 $150.00
    08/12/14 Will Abbott face a leadership ballot? Yes @ 2.50 58d 9h 48m 2.50 $100.00
    30/11/14 Next Liberal Leader Malcolm Turnbull @ 2.85 148d 22h 18m 2.85 $100.00 

    I was right. At least about the QLD ALP becoming the leading party. Although its governing status is still yet to be conclusively decided. And I reckon Abbotts days as a secure L/NP leader are numbered. If the current debacle continues there will be a challenge perhaps one year out from the 2016 election. My money’s on Turnbull for next L/NP leader, given his principled stand on climate change and his evident ability to run large organizations. But that one is a more iffy pick. Leadership picks are not the domain of science. They are gossip.

  35. @Fran Barlow
    If PM Tony Abbott gets turfed by the LNP before the next election, it would be in their interest to hold off until just before the election is called. If they do that, there will be very little time for the public to assess the new PM, and the new PM will have control of the LNP’s campaign. On the other hand, if they turf the current PM well before the next election, that would allow other would-be’s and wanna-be’s to also contest the leadership (or to mutter about it, constantly checking the numbers), creating the kind of instability which the ALP had.

    Personally, I hope the resist the temptation altogether…:-)

  36. So, the big messages from Queenslanders are don’t sell public assets (repeat, twice), don’t shred public sector employment, don’t tell bare faced lies and enough with the bare faced lies. Listening Tony?

    I’m having trouble finding reportage on the reef as an issue.

  37. @J-D
    Thanks J-D. I didn’t follow the dispute closely enough to say who was responsible for the tone of it (which was what I objected to, more than the content as such), but judging from Ivor’s response above, he may have been more responsible than you. As someone who studied Australian history, I was mildly interested in the question, but the tone became very carping.

    @Megan
    Thanks Megan, as ever I can be a bit too blunt on occasion! I respect your position, but I think the response from KJ and AP last night does at least sound as if they have learnt something (unlike the LNP, who have clearly learnt nothing, and hopefully are doomed in consequence), but the question is, will that mean anything in practice? I guess you’re saying no, but what does that mean? Are both major parties so captured by big business that they will write themselves off electorally? I can’t quite see that happening.

  38. @J-D
    (I sent a message replying to both you and Megan which has gone into moderation so I will try sending them separately.)

    Thanks J-D. I didn’t follow the dispute closely enough to say who was responsible for the tone of it (which was what I objected to, more than the content as such), but judging from Ivor’s response above, he may have been more responsible than you. As someone who studied Australian history, I was mildly interested in the question, but the tone became very carping.

  39. @Megan
    Thanks Megan as sorry, as ever I can be a bit too blunt on occasion! I respect your position, but I think the response from KJ and AP last night does at least sound as if they have learnt something (unlike the LNP, who have clearly learnt nothing, and hopefully are doomed in consequence), but the question is, will that mean anything in practice? I guess you’re saying no, but what does that mean? Are both major parties so captured by big business that they will write themselves off electorally? I can’t quite see that happening

  40. @BilB
    Well, good. I’ve been looking to see if there was evidence of the reef having an electoral impact. I see that the Greens have increased there vote reasonably well and in contrast to declining votes in SA and Vic. So far, almost no reportage has mentioned the Qld environment as an issue in post polling.

    I just read an interesting article on how NSW ALP is intending to make environmental issues a key strategic area; Foley (opposition leader) has announced plans for an extensive Koala Preserve and there is a stoush on about the construction of the Pacific Hgwy upgrade through a rare ‘heritage’ (undisturbed) colony. Locally, the ALP candidate for an adjoining electorate to mine is running hard against CSG on water quality/security issues.

    I think the ALP here is getting the message especially after key ministers to coal mines were exposed as deeply corrupt.

  41. @Val

    Are both major parties so captured by big business that they will write themselves off electorally?

    I tend to agree with Megan – I fear the answer is yes.

  42. @zoot
    I see that JQ has started a relevant discussion about “Pasokification” (a new concept to me) on the new thread – suggesting that the Labor equivalent in Greece did that to itself, and that this Qld election suggests the trend for social- democrat parties to make themselves irrelevant can be reversed. However as you and Megan and Ikon would probably say, it’s only rhetoric so far in Qld ALP, and what they will do in practice remains to be seen.

    Should go to that thread now I guess.

  43. @Ivor

    Well, there is the possibility that Malcolm Turnbull may yet become leader again, and if he does, and survives in the leadership until an election, we will get to find out what he says in a leader’s post-election speech.

    But we’ve already got a track record of over a hundred years of post-election speeches by Coalition party leaders, State and Federal. Has any single one of them ever thanked the union movement in any one of those speeches? I haven’t read them all, so I don’t know, but I’d be prepared to bet money against it, and give good odds too.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s