When I posted on the Liberal leadership, I assumed that the right wing of the Liberal party was organized enough to persuade Abbott to go quietly and to install Bishop rather than Turnbull to replace him. Neither assumption looks safe now, and my overestimation of LNP organizational capacities has been shown up by the fiasco in Queensland. So, I’ll sit back and enjoy the fun, leaving you to offer whatever thoughts you have on the topic, or on related issues.
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John Quiggin 
If Abbott goes then the fun will only just have begun. He’ll white-ant and make Rudd look like a team player.
Well, Sir Possitory of Wisdom is a dead man walking. And while he hangs on to the leadership, there is zero possibility of the government implementing any of its legislative agenda.
Many people – mostly Labor supporters – want Abbott to stay on because it would guarantee that they win the next election. I don’t want that – I want Labor to win the election because they deserve it, not because the current government is so damn awful. Too often we vote out governments without giving an nanosecond’s thought to what the alternative is – look what happened last time we did that!
The only way we will have a decent political process in this country is if both parties are well led, and they present credible policies for the electorate to consider. Shorten hasn’t done that – because he sees no need. Therefore, Abbott has to go and the government needs to install someone as leader who will change the direction of the party and put forward policies which are fair and credible. And while I think Bishop might make a good leader, she wouldn’t change the party the way it needs to change – only Turnbull would do that.
Abbott is gone – sooner or later the challenge will come. I hope it is sooner rather than later.
John, watching the fun will be instructive. This is what happens to authoritarian leadership, it attracts delusional narcissists like Rudd and Abbott and in Abbott’s case, he looks set to tear his party to shreds in order to cling on to power.
Pheeew! And someone asked me the other day why the Greens don’t seem to have a leader, just a lot of capable people all the way up to the Parliamentary leader. The Greens would be well advised to steer clear of Presidential campaigning, especially because both major parties demonstrate just how fragile that model of leadership is.
I decided that I could unilaterally dish out awards, so Tony Abbott is now the temporary Emperor of Australia – and I hope that is only for a day or so, after which he will leave public life and seek psych treatment.
Turnbull has spent the last 12 months betraying the country by f8cking the NBN. He has no credibility.
Surely you mean Morrison.
I’m very open to being proven wrong, but I have a genuine question.
A lot of people seem to be painting Turnbull as some kind of progressive. This is not at all the impression I have of him. Take away the fact that he supports gay marriage and isn’t a foaming at the mouth climate change denier. Just take his economic ideology. I can’t point to quotes, but my memory of him over the years is of a neoliberal – perhaps just a smarter, more cunning one.
Open to hearing thoughts, and particularly from anyone who can do what I can’t and link some evidence.
It’s actually rather boring, episode 311 of ‘Leadership spill’, except to lay psychologists. Those who find the spectacle of the LNP mustering the courage, swallowing bitter pills etc. to re-elect Mr Turnbull are sadists. Those who think Ms Bishop has anything to offer are fetishists. Those who think Mr Morrison has anything to offer are anally retentive. Those who are counting the votes are obsessional compulsive. Those who enjoy the whole spectacle are masochists. Those who worry about the future of Australia are desperately anxious or seriously depressed.
Should be ‘enjoyable’ between ‘find’ and ‘spectacle’. Sorry.
If they replace Tony Abbott, it will be a bloody shambles, and they won’t have the capacity to ditch a whole lot of nonsensical policy notions—because the theo-neocons believe it is all justified.
The only contenders the media have thought of are the ones who cannot realistically fill the role: Malcolm Turnbull is far too left leaning for the theo-neos to tolerate; Scott Morrison would cause a blood bath; Julie Bishop is doing a job she seems well suited for (I guess she has that business background to draw from, an exception among LNP, ironically) and doesn’t need the extra aggro of a PM’s job; Scott Morrison would cause utter carnage, the streets littered with bodies, designated as “DO NOT LOOK: OPERATIONAL MATTER”; I can’t see Kevin Andrews, Mal Brough, etc in the role. If the job is genuinely up for grabs, I wonder if Eric Abetz, or George Brandis are toying with the idea…God forbid.
All up though, if they have any sense at all, they’ll leave Tony where he is, and demand that he cede the decision making to the cabinet. Leave him there like a caretaker.
So tired…zzz.
I for one certainly overestimated the extent to which the Queensland LNP was prepared for the consequences of the election in this state; the choice was to consider them “knaves” or “fools”, I chose “knaves”, when it seems “fools” was the appropriate label. And judgement. At the moment it appears they could not organise a children’s party, let alone a state political party. As someone once wrote of the home-grown Nazis in Australia, “Everyone wants to be Fuhrer”. The surprise for me was Seeney’s willingness to go; he was the attack-dog for the party under Springborg and others, but always had ambitions of his own. As for the Federal coalition, I agree with Tim Niven’s comment about Turnbull; he has compromised, back-flipped and fudged incessantly under Abbott. What will change? Julie Bishop: will not be able to translate her persona on the international stage into a lasting electoral appeal in domestic politics. Prove me wrong. Mal Brough: so compromised on so many issues, any challenge from him could only be as a joke, or as stalking-horse. Who else is waiting in the wings? Morrison: Mr Rigid, Mr Focus, Mr Task-oriented… seriously? But turn attention to the ALP and Bill Shorten, who is coasting (strangely like Miliband in Britain), but can anyone name his “signature policy”? What does he stand for? What is he articulating as leader of the alternative government? As a starter, have a look at this piece by Judith Ireland: – and ask why Shorten is not raising these issues in reply to Abbott.
Look, I know this is silly, but is there any chance the Libs could choose a leader who would sit down with the ALP and the Greens and work out some genuinely good policies for Australia? It would mean ditching the tribal thing. It would almost certainly mean losing the next election.
But it would rehabilitate politicians in the eyes of the public, and it would be good for the country. I’m not going to pump Turnbull up, but his effort on climate change when he was opposition leader was the last time I remember anything like cooperation between the parties. Please don’t tell me that all the major parties are too feral to work together.
Seconded.
What I would like to see is now Abbott being the lame duck of all time but still hanging in there enough so his ex mates continue to explain and try and justify their neoliberal policies. And metaphorically shoot them and the whole system in the head IPA Murdoch Andrew Bolt Gina and all.
The road to sanity wont be easy but such shock treatment may be the only road forward.
With a bit of luck the stench from the neoliberalism cesspit and its rotten managerial/economic mantras will get so great that both Labor and the Greens also ‘get wisdom’ and themselves move a way from the dead hands of Friedman Rand Keating and Rudd to some better place that has yet but needs to be invented.
@John Brookes
Not at all.
They work together perfectly – e.g. inhumane treatment of refugees, inaction on climate change, support for US wars of aggression, total support for Israel, deepening the surveillance state and removing rights such as ‘habeas corpus’, adopting neo-con/neo-lib policies, etc…
In the Senate, they vote together more often than not to defeat objections to these things and more from the greens and other cross-benchers.
@Tim Niven
Re Turnbull I think you are right. I’ve heard him speak and heard about actions in the 2000s which were very promising…e.g. taking advice from experts on the drought and the mess it caused reflecting mismanagement of the land and its water.
But Turnbull has now been in the belly of the beast since 2009 (Is it really that long since Abbot rose to power in the Liberals and stamped the Murdoch’s Tea Party model on its entrails?). It appears as a result he has utterly destroyed/sacrificed his good previous aspects in the name of power and opportunism.
Perhaps he may change over the medium future as he contemplates the hell government he is and integral part of. But its hard to see. Its that old question of whether people get more conservative or radical as they age. And he aint getting younger.
@Megan
Sigh…
@ Megan
Agreed. A good example of the duopoly working together was last year when they sank Senator Whish-Wilson’s private members bill (the Trade and Foreign Investment (Protecting the Public Interest) Bill 2014) which aimed to outlaw the signing of trade agreements involving investor state dispute settlement (ISDS). Labor went on and on about how bad ISDS was…….. before saying that, of course they would oppose any legislation to take substantive action against ISDS. Rhetorical action was enough.
@Megan
Agree completely. If only labor could be a bit more feral on those issues. The coalition is of course now engaged in a “Drang nach Osten fuer Lebensraum” and will take no prisoners, Geneva Conventions be damned. Fortunately they seem to have hit Stalingrad.
Purely for the schadenfreude I would like to see Tone Deaf Tony lead his party into a double dissolution election. I doubt it would benefit Australia at all.
@mandas
Turnbull could create a headache for the ALP, given that he is possibly to the left of the ALP on some issues. If he shifts the Libs to the left, the ALP will have to go with them.
Agree on Turnbull – I used to think he had what it takes but no longer – he is so sure of his ability he is dangerous.
@mandas
I do agree that we need governments with ideas and policy, however I don’t think Shorten and the rest of the ALP are proposing any ideas, because, it is plainly obvious that the current government have none! The “achievements” have all been either rolling back legislation or cuts to current programs. The few dud ideas which have been proposed are all languishing before the senate wacks them back down.
It is perhaps worth contemplating goings on in the Northern Territory which put leadership plotting on to a whole new level. Everyone in the government it appears is going to have a turn at being leader. The lunatics have well and truly taken over the asylum. Chris Graham at New Matilda has an entertaining account of the shenanigans.
Didn’t Murdoch and his minions like Bolt tell the Australian people what a good PM Captain Catastrophe would be? Now, they don’t like him and they think he has lost the plot. What does that say about their judgement? Clearly, it illustrates that Captain Catastrophe supporters were and still are blithering idiots.
Sadly, we are now coming up to 5 years when the burning political question in Canberra has been what the prime minister of the day can do to stave off a looming leadership challenge. While it does make for some mildly enjoyable entertainment at times, it continues to undermine public respect for our parliamentary democracy.
And does anyone believe Bill Shorten has done enough to enjoy the loyal support of his Labor colleagues? Somehow I doubt it, just as I suspect the 35+ new ALP MPs in Brisbane will regard Annastacia Palaszczuk as a caretaker leader who will no longer be required come 2016.
Surely if the Coalition was really serious when they spoke about the damage that Labor’s leadership struggles had done to the country, their first initiative should have been to reduce the Prime Minister’s pay down to that of a backbencher to remove one incentive to struggle for leadership?
Jackie Lambie had it right on Q&A
Bill Shorten is probably hoping Abbott stays there.
He is such a rightwing cartoon character that the ALP will receive a better boost next election if Abbott commits more arrogant or crazy stunts.
We do not want a Liberal party with level headed leadership.
The electorate needs hard evidence that the Liberals are just a bunch of loonies, and Abbott exemplifies this better than any other. Only Abetz is worse.
All great fun, but I reckon there is approximately zero chance of them replacing Abbott. Apart from powerful memories of what happened to the deposers after the last time a sitting PM was deposed, the Batshit Crazy Xtian Far Right is the kingmaking faction of the Libs now and Abbott is their man. They’d sooner lose government anyway than have Turnbull or Bishop as their boss.
And after all this is still only mid-term; the period when governments are usually least popular. My money is still on Abbott to get re-elected – helped by a surprise pre-election Budget that announces tax cuts and a surplus (the “budget emergency” both Swan and Hockey faced was always a product of some very short term factors which are passing).
Malcolm Turnbull will eventually get the nod – the conservative parties don’t like him but he offers the best chance of Liberals hanging onto seats. It will eventually sink in.
@Willy Bach
I watched Milne and Shorten respond to the press club speech. Shorten was wooden in his prepared bit, but much better in the Q&A – more lively than I have seen him before. I was put off by Milne’s primary school teacher lecture mode – did not work with me when I was 10 and it is no better now when I am pushing 60.
I understand your plea to avoid a presidential campaign, but the leaders do set the tone and I can’t see that Ms Milne communication style is anything but a negative.
I have not looked since Saturday, but the Green vote in QLd seemed flat with the swing being from LNP to Lab. I was surprised given the mayhem in Qld that the Greens did not not do better.
@O6
Sounds like we need a bigger n better MediCare system if you are to be believed 🙂
@Dave WA
They ran dead.
Their two main points were “Daylight Savings” and “Vote for the ALP”.
In my opinion they are, rightly, perceived as being just a vote-scooper for the ALP and not a genuine third party at the state level in Queensland.
@Tim Niven
He is progressive only by comparison to the theo-neo-cons and neo-cons, and the fact that he will think something through helps continue the illusion.
I entirely agree with other comments about the shambles Turnbull is residing over with respect to the NBN; mind you, if you work as an LNP member, then you are always gonna root up the data services for Australians. Don’t see why that should be the case but it just is. For all their carping over budget emergencies, first world data comms services is surely the kind of infrastructure businesses (and their customers) need these days. Grrrr.
Oh, and I hope the Queen’s consort appreciates his Australian knighthood, for it may have come at great cost 🙂
Donald, I have little doubt that in the days to come, Sir Prince Phillip’s knighthood will be seen as Tony Abbott’s greatest positive achievement while in office.
Pr Q mused:
The Right-wing of the L/NP is not all-powerful or all-knowing. Indeed, when it comes to getting a handle on contemporary AUS politics it seems that William Goldman’s rule for Hollywood’s hits applies: “no one knows anything”.
Back in late 2014 I came to the conclusion, reinforced by an accountable Sportsbet.com wager, that Abbott was toast and that Turnbull was the most likely next L/NP leader:
My reasoning for predicting Turnbull over Bishop were threefold. One, Turnbull represents a break from “Abbottism” in that he is a climate change realist and therefore gives the voters a worthy reason for changing their vote, over and above puerile personal ambition. Two, Turnbull has a well-earned reputation as a competent executive who can get on top of a brief. Three, Turnbull is not deputy leader and therefore does not become vulnerable to the charge of back-stabbing. I think that one regicidal female deputy leader per decade is more than enough for the AUS electorate. So I ruled out Bishop.
I’d like to claim the mantle of science for this prediction – which has not yet gone through the formality of actually occurring – but my underlying model was pretty threadbare. Leadership prediction is not science, it is more like insider gossip. There are just too many intangible individual variables in play.
But some general factor is at work and not just in the L/NP. The evidence for poll-driven leadership churn in both parties and across both levels of government is overwhelming. Sheehan reports that in the past 10 years there have been 10 leadership changes in the major parties:
Compare this to the 1996-2007 Howard-L/NP, a period which in retrospect looks like a Golden Age of political stability, when there were precisely zero changes in the top three jobs: Howard as PM, Costello as Treasurer and Downer as FM. Going back further think how long Menzies, Fraser, Hawke, Keating lasted in the top jobs. Something has changed.
There has to be some reason for the increased volatility in the electorate. Sometime between “Minchin’s Martyrdom Operation” in mid-2010 and the obliteration of Rudd-ALP in the 2013 election I came to the conclusion that AUS electorate had become incorrigibly “cranky”. And that traditional rules of psephology, let alone leadership succession, were being thrown out the window.
Some “theory”, huh?
My sense is that there are deeper underlying causes at work in the cranky AUS electoral psyche, but I can’t put my finger on them. Post-GFC economic blues? Poll-driven politics as a leadership beauty contest? Public disgust with party politics-as-usual? The collapse of public confidence in the post-modern liberal elite consensus? Take your pick.
Whatever the reason the old rules for predicting partisan alignment and party machinations are very much up in the air. Psephologists, its back to the drawing board.
@Ivor
I think you are correct in saying:
However, I would go further. I look at my fellow citizens with a hard stare these days and I see people who need to have information repeatedly punched into them by reality before they are prepared to awake, usually briefly, from their mundane lives level of utter, narcissistic indifference to anything that doesn’t directly affect them.
I decided tonight that Pyne looks like he has his head steam cleaned every morning. I also noticed that Abbott’s left ear appears to me to be a bit cauliflowered. It certainly does look like he might have taken too many hits.
@Jack Strocchi
“Some “theory”, huh?”
Since Keating, successive governments have forced the ‘dog eat dog’ version of liberal democracy on people in work places. This modus operandi reached the legislators, too.
Sorry, wrong link to election bet above. Correct link here.
@Megan
Actually, I can’t quite accept that. The problem is that some parts of the electorate are as thick as two short planks, and some time ago the Libs and Labor decided to try and appeal to these dimwits. That is where a lot of dumb policy comes from.
If the Libs, ALP and the Greens could get together and decide what stupid issues should no longer be used to gain votes, then there is some chance of improvement. Boat people is one such issue – it should not be taken to the electorate, as it brings out the worst in people. The death penalty is an example of where pollies won’t go – because they know the public can be whipped into a frothy indignation and support the death penalty – despite it being a very stupid policy.
I guess part of the problem is that most of the government mp’s don’t feel like part of the government, because they aren’t listened to, and that goes double for the ALP and Greens. We really need a more inclusive government, where members interact with their constituents, and bring their views to the legislative process.
You know, some sort of democracy…
From the little I’ve seen, the Murdoch press appears to very much have gone all in for the LNP during the election and clearly failed. And maybe the “little I’ve seen” part is key. Back in the distant past when Rupert had shallower wrinkles and a little more hair, he appeared a lot more impartial. Both sides of politics would court him and he would play the role of kingmaker. So maybe it’s not Rupert that has changed but the times. It’s very easy to go without consuming traditional media these days. Personally I don’t watch TV, listen to radio, or read newspapers. While I am probably an exceptional example, the traditional media has clearly lost a lot of its grip and the more they tighten their grip the more minds slip through their fingers. And there is a big age differential between the minds they lose and the minds they keep. As a result Rupert’s media empire is simply less valuable to the major party with younger demographics than it is to the Coalition with its older voting base. And so Labor did not need to court it as badly as the Coalition. Now it might seem like a bad play to go all in with one end of the political spectrum, why not keep to the old position of power in the apparent center? Well, because that’s only apparent power, which doesn’t translate directly into money. But if most of the people who purchase your products are old and trending conservative, then having your media push conservative issues a lot of the time can help sell papers and raise ratings, and so it may not be a bad business choice. So rather than Rupert having undergone some big change in his personality as he aged, I think he might well still be what he always was, a business man who is currently trying to make the most profit possible out of a sunset industry in deep decline. To the detriment of the planet and us all.
NOTE: I should mention that people don’t get more conservative as they get older, on average get more progressive. It’s just that society as a whole progresses further than they do. (I firmly hope that, when I reach a ripe old age, I will be regarded as a monster.)
@Donald Oats
I am pretty sure that 93 year old Phil doesn’t give a toss of a horse’s head about Tony’s knighthoods. As far as I know it has not been bestowed as yet. Protocol aside, I would like to see the enactment. Phil is probably a bit unsteady on his knees, with a tendency perhaps to fall forward, and Liz’s sword handling might not be what it once was.
There is clearly an OH&S issue here with potential dire consequences. It is all Tony’s doing. As with all else he will not take responsibility and blame Rudd and Gillard.
I have just appreciated why Government spokespeople are so keen on the Gish Gallop. They envisage themselves as knights of the realm. The warming then, as they imagine now, is the best thing that has happened.
I am afraid that I am cloaking myself in the guilty pleasure of schadenfreude. It is a bit like when walking my dog and he disapears for a few minutes the re appears stinking to high heaven, having found something disgusting to roll in. I know I should tear myself away from the news and blogs reporting the downfall of Mr Rabbit but I cannot. So much like my dog I have a guilty but pleased look with myself having wallowed in this muck.
@Jack Strocchi
Tom Colebatch writes that over the last decade or two employment is down as is job security and wage buying power. Compare that to the stock and property markets. No wonder wage earners are getting cranky with the big end of town.
I’m not inclined to take issue with much in this article. It’s pretty damned good in my opinion.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/03/the-rightwing-reaction-to-queensland-shows-they-want-to-rule-not-govern
They stuffed it by going for too much all at once .Neo-lib overreach ,hubris ,out of touch .If they had moved slower I think they may have got there eventually. Howard slowly moved us a long way to the right. Only a big national security incident can save Abbotts hide, pathetically he is even now trying to talk fear alot. His National Press Club address just sounded like an election pitch from 2 or 3 years ago ;- talk about Labor ,debt ,fear and no detailed vision for future beyond 3 word platitudes .He is lost . Its funny watching them try to do something to Australia without being able to say what it is as it is unpalatable to everyone but their well-to-do mates. The policy that dare not speak its name !
Feeling optimistic I hope that ;-
— They have irrevocably blown their cover and that the average Joe/Jane now sees this (rightly) as an attempt to remove the fair go from Australia .
— Legacy media is on the way out (goodbye Rupe)and new media is playing a bigger role than most yet realise .
— People arent voting parties in, they are just voting incumbents out, because neither mob realises people dont want lives totally ruled by random markets.
— Neo-lib ‘free’ market extremism is beginning to unravel.
Fran:
Excellent column. Wilson nails it. Abusing us for voting “wrong” could only seem like a sensible way to respond to the neo-lib’s massive electoral failures to a true ideologue.
Attempting to blackmail Qld electorates so soon after the failure of the same strategy in the Vic elections demonstrates that these people are so absolutely right in their own minds that they don’t need to learn. I’ve been using the term ‘fascist’ perhaps a bit loosely in recent years but I’m thinking now that it applies quite accurately.
Ronald:
I disagree with the bit about “selling papers”. Murdoch is a billionaire ideologue who for forty years has run the Oz at a huge financial loss. He craves power much more than he craves money and his monopoly stranglehold on our media gives him that power, even as we “real” people ignore his outpourings in droves.
Listen to parliament any day of the week and you will hear politicians citing something from the Murdoch press as justification for whatever evil they are up to that day.
John Brookes:
I still disagree. I think you may be contradicting yourself with your two examples, refugees and capital punishment. The dumb policies are what the pollies want but the electorate are against, they play to the fabricated clamour of the “media” to get away with what they think they can (inhumane treatment of refugees), and go silent on what they know they can’t (death penalty – despite Murdoch foamy-mouthed inciting as a constant noise in the background).
@sunshine
I love the way Morrison and Dutton fell into lockstep with their Fuehrer; he’s heard the message but their are saboteurs about and he’ll keep us safe and secure.
The Tory press is also despairing after their best efforts at having their governments reelected in Vic and Qld fell apart. Apparently democracy is broken now that the prols won’t accept a bullet to safeguard the the shoveling of public cash to their betters.
Didn’t Hawke say Tony was as mad as a cut snake and Keating thought if Abbott doesn’t get what he wants he’ll wreck the place?
Interesting times.
Hundreds of non-violent hunger striking refugees on Manus were brutally repressed over the last month in circumstances of absolute secrecy. Over 50 have been disappeared without charge into PNG jails.
After 18 months almost no claims have been properly assessed.
Dutton was in PNG yesterday, apparently working on a final solution for dealing with these refugees because their very existence offends the ALP/LNP duopoly’s desire for this “problem” to go away.
In those circumstances, having Dutton on a prime time current affairs show would be the best imaginable time to ask him some questions such as:
-The Senate inquiry recommended full access be given to the UNHCR, lawyers and media – when will you do that?
-What has happened to the people removed from Manus RPC?
-What is their state of wellbeing?
-The PNG government says that Australia must meet all costs of caring for refugees released on PNG, how will we ensure that happens?
But Leigh Sales didn’t mention refugees once in her interview tonight. It was all the political/media establishment’s self-indulgent leadership circus.
No wonder nobody is listening to them.
@Megan
The MSM squeal about how we don’t get the kind of interviews they used to do with politicians, and then they pepper us with such limp lettuce leaf questions, only complete dunce would muck up at being interviewed by them. Budget cuts certainly don’t help the MSM (and I’m including ABC 21 in that), but honestly, a few minutes with google or the like, and you have enough facts to make an interview deadly serious for the politician in the hot seat. Interviewing politicians about matters specific to their portfolio (at least 95% of the time) is one way to tease out what a politician actually believes the policies should be, and perhaps we even find out why so.
While the whole leadership thing is a laff, I cannot see it making a jot of difference to the LNP’s overall policy prescriptions, whoever is in the hot seat. It might as well be PM Tony Abbott, and thus avoid a cabinet reshuffle so soon after a cabinet reshuffle. More stability there gives the public servants at least a fighting chance of acting on what the current minister’s demands are; reshuffling means change and often having to start all over again, which is a waste of time and money. Keep TA as PM, where he can do the least damage to Australia, apart from the odd imaginary shirtfront with a random foreign leader, of course.
@Ernestine Gross
Leadership does not mean “getting to the top” as so many, in such varied employment, seem to believe these days. In fact leadership is as much about “taking one for the team”, which sadly is not considered a quality worth teaching anymore. Unfortunately modern politics works on a one strike rule, so taking a hit means the end of your career. That leaves only the lily-livered scum to run the joint…
But I agree with Jack Strochi that there is something more at play here. Late stage capitalism? Post GFC-blues? 22 years with out a recession, with politicians and bankers taking the credit for it at every turn, when really, Australia is just the Lucky Country run by…