A new sandpit for long side discussions, conspiracy theories, idees fixes and so on. I’ll open this by saying I agree with the view that even an optimal response to the pandemic by China would have given the world only a few days more notice, and that most Western governments would have wasted that time anyway.

55 thoughts on “Sandpit

  1. This is something that I have not directly brought up before. I have mentioned that the reports of the course of the desease in different countries is completely unbelievable. Well a common refrain is that the nations report different things because they have different defintions for things like who dies of coronavirus. You know there is some sense to the idea that some countries have different definitions of murder. what is murder in one country could be manslaughter in another country.
    But if this is the case with coronavirus it means that there is not even an accepted standard definition of who dies of Coronavirus and who does not. Without standard definitions we do not even know what we are talking about.I imagine that could mean that in one country where coronavirus is supposedly a contributing factor it gets counted but in another country it does not get counted it goes down as a death to what ever the pre- condition was.
    OK the implication of this is that coronavirus pandemic is nothing but smoke and mirrors. The desease crisis is for better or worse a crude battering ram of those who wield it. This is a crisis with no known facts only known spin. Oops better clarify that. That air traffic is down 95% and and road traffic is down 30%, and that the number of people working at home has gone up and that stores and resturants and barber shops are closed seem to be facts. But as to the coronavirus itself none of the reports about it should be trusted.
    Well Curt what should we do then. The answer is obvious. Most people do not have to do a damned thing other than what they are told. A comparative few people, reasonable left wing military officers and reasonable law enforcement officials, and one brave government attorney, need to launch a Green Revolution. Once they take charge the virus will disappear as if by magic. I can give a 100% assurance of that.

  2. oh by the way I think that it is a rather ironic tradgi comedy that a day after I wrote a comment about the incompetence and criminal negligence of the shooting down of an Iranian and a Malaysian airliner the Iranian Navy accidently sunk one of its own ships killing at least 19. OOOOHHHH 19 the conspiracy thickens. hahahhahahahahaha. (That is the evil laugh of a man who has been corrupted by to much power.)

  3. Children under 2 not dying of Coronavirus. No red flag. Adults in their 50s dying of coronavirus is accepted by everyone except me as believable too. Shit I am not even a doctor. i have lived to be almost 60 though and my expirience here in this simulation has informed me that people in their 50s have superb immune systems.
    But you know what the story changed. People in their 50s who were dying of the desease, though not very often, were said to be dying of the desease because their immune sytems are or were over reacting. This over reaction supposedly kills people in their 50s the same way that a bee sting, normally harmless, kills some people who have an alergic reaction to it.
    In the final analysis it does not matter what the source of the Corona 19 virus is the cure for it is a Green Leftist Revolution. The cure is not simple it is magical, maniacle, and sublime.
    hahahahahahahahahaha. You know the refain.

  4. Australia’s COVID-19 R0 (growth factor) has risen to 1.08. It has been rising steadily since the 0.86 low on April 26. This is precisely the wrong time to relax any restrictions. Indeed, restrictions should be re-tightened to reduce the R0 back below 1 and keep it there.

    The population and economy will suffer far more damage from permitting the R0 to grow again than from re-tightening restrictions. If we keep opening the economy at this stage, we will suffer a very damaging second wave this southern-hemisphere winter. Opening the economy for some non-essential economic activity is a massive own goal. Non-essential economic activities which pose a pandemic risk (not all non-essential economic activities do so) are a relatively small part of the overall economy. To risk all the people and all the economy for a relatively small non-essential component is irrational.

    One issue people are forgetting about is the issue of sequelae. “A sequela is a pathological condition resulting from a disease, injury, therapy, or other trauma. Typically, a sequela is a chronic condition that is a complication which follows a more acute condition.” – Wikipedia. The picture is that a significant number of people “recovered” from COVID-19 are now from suffering chronic conditions including the aftermaths of lung injury, heart injury, kidney damage, liver damage and blood clots (strokes, DVT and limb loss). The ongoing personal and economic costs will be high. A picture is also be emerging of some children indeed suffering mortality and some developing atypical Kawasaki disease. All children are not unaffected by COVID-19.

    It’s critical to get the R0 below 1 and keep it there. It’s critical to keep pushing for eradication even before we have a vaccine (and treatments). If we get a vaccine, the push for eradication becomes easily feasible. Eradication is the ONLY policy which makes sense. It must be possible to derive a formula equating the infectiousness and lethality of any disease to the economic damage it would cause and comparing the costs of complete eradication to the costs of complete inaction. I think we would expect a common cold, of rhinovirus characteristics, to produce the result that total eradication is uneconomic and a virus of COVID-19 characteristics would produce a result that total eradication is economic. Perhaps, J.Q. could work on such a formula in a paper after taking epidemiological and disease burden advice . It’s a worthy research topic.

  5. I’ve mentioned this in a previous comment, so I think it qualifies as an idee fixe. A big problem with a job guarantee is that the jobs people get may not be productive or meaningful. A solution to that problem could be a subsidised job market in which employers bid for the right to host a subsidised worker. The government would cover the difference between the winning bids and a standard wage. Suppose the wage for a job guarantee worker was $40K per year and that the market was divided into sectors. In a simplified version, there is one job guarantee job available in the environment sector and two organisations competing to employ the job guarantee worker. Organisation A decides that the worker will generate $20K of benefit for them and so this is their bid; organisation B decides that the worker will generate $25K of benefit and so this is their bid. So the worker will receive $40K, of which $25K comes from the firm and $15K from the government. The job is then advertised on the job guarantee platform and people apply for it and go through a normal application process.

    The contract would be for a set amount of time. In this example we’ll make it a year. After the year is over, the firm must once again bid to retain the job guarantee worker. Suppose that after a year’s experience, the worker is now worth $35K to the firm. That’s the amount the firm will bid to retain their worker. Some complicated auction magic could be done here to ensure that people don’t lose jobs that they and their employer want to continue (right of last refusal, longer contract). Eventually the worker may attain a level of productivity greater than the job guarantee wage and leave the system altogether. Or they may end up with a permanent job guarantee position.

    Given the application system, some workers may be unable to find jobs despite earnest attempts to find them. This could be solved with a tiered system. A tier 4 applicant is one who has been unsuccessful in fewer than ten applications. They can access only tier 4 jobs. A tier 3 applicant is one who has been unsuccessful in more than ten but fewer than twenty applications. They can access tier 4 and tier 3 jobs. This goes right down to tier 1, where applicants are guaranteed a job. The organisations bidding for workers in different tiers will make different offer amounts depending on the lower desirability of lower tier workers – highest in tier 4 and lowest in tier 1.

    Any organisations could bid for workers. In some sectors (hospitality, say), the market would be dominated by private firms, whereas in others (environmental services) it would be dominated by not-for-profits and government agencies. Note that government agencies still have the incentive to only bid what workers are worth in order to maximise productivity. The government could adjust the numbers of places in various sectors according to their proportion in the wider workforce or other criteria.

  6. Ikono, the disease occurs in clusters. When there is a lot of clusters the results get smoothed out, but when the disease is in the final stages of being eliminated things get lumpy and there can be cycles where it appears to getting worse and then better as the remaining clusters are eliminated.

    How and when restrictions should be lifted I leave to epidemiologists since I am too optimistic to be trusted with Australia’s pandemic response. (A little surprised and perhaps just a little hurt no one asked me to be in charge of it though.)

  7. I agree with Ronald. The value of R (not R0) shouldn’t change from day to day, but only when the behavior of the population as a whole changes. Under current circumstances, it’s just a reflection of when cases are diagnosed in individual clusters.

  8. Listing to Victoria’s CMO yesterday – there is plenty of nuance hidden within the numbers too – eg: where are the cases happening – are they part of a well understood isolated outbreak in which health authorities have a good handle on or is there plenty of random community transmission happening with little understanding of the source and potential level of exposure.

  9. Ronald and J.Q.,

    I understand the disease occurs in clusters. When the count gets low, yes the data is noisy, lumpy, unrepresentative or whatever we want to call it. However, the statement “when the disease is in the final stages of being eliminated” contains an assumption, namely that “the disease is in the final stages of being eliminated”. We don’t know that yet.

    This pandemic is precisely of the nature that small clusters get out of control rapidly and exponentially. It is also of the nature that new cases can remain asymptomatic and new clusters can remain hidden for up to two weeks. How much undiagnosed activity is going on? By definition, we do not know.

    I assume by R the value Re is meant. That “e” is supposed to be a subscript but my text skills here are limited. “The effective reproduction number Re can be reduced by intervention measures such as social distancing, while R0 remains unaffected, as it is a measure of the rate of infections when there are no interventions.” – Wikipedia.

    R0 is a “standard conditions” value but what are “standard” or “default” conditions to start with? They vary for each culture. Empirical Re’s are more meaningful but admittedly we need sufficient sample sizes to be sure where Re is going.

    There are too many unknowns and serious risks for the assumption to be made that “the disease is in the final stages of being eliminated”. Once again, people do not understand the potential risks of this novel pathogen with as yet unknown characteristics in the field. We should still err on the side of great caution.

  10. I think there is a broader issue with R (and R0) that I noticed back in February when I was working on the R0 of the Chinese outbreak. At low case numbers I think it is hard to get a correct estimate of R0, and I think all diseases at the beginning of an outbreak look like they have an R0 of 1.5 – 2.5. I think this is why early estimates based on the first 40-100 cases gave such low R0 estimates, and left people unprepared for the true ferocity of the virus. Later work published in Chinese showed much much higher R0s, but by that time the epidemic had begun its overshoot.

    I think there is a problem that when a disease is in its early phase the ultimate true structure of its infectious process is washed out by noise, from individual clusters and also from poor recording of missing cases etc. This is a huge problem for outbreak detection, because if we’re highly likely to underestimate the value of R0 we’re also highly likely to fail to predict a major outbreak, or prepare for it.

    I expect you should see the same thing on the downward end of hte epidemic too, that values of R near 1 are extremely vulnerable to stochastic variation. You can’t judge the effectiveness of your policy from R over short periods of time if it’s super vulnerable to random variation, especially when it’s in the region of 1 (where small changes have the most meaning). I think this means R is not a good tool for assessing interventions over the short term, and it’s much better to use a practical guideline something like a) are cases continuing to go down, b) is spare capacity forming in our health system c) what % of currently active cases are we seeing and is it going down and [most importantly!] d) do we have the capacity to contact trace all the current cases. I think d) is crucial – you shouldn’t consider loosening a lockdown (or other strategy) unless you’re absolutely sure that the number of daily new cases is well below your contact tracing capacity.

    On the basis of d) alone I would say that the UK is nowhere near ready to end lockdown, regardless of the value of R.

  11. There is a very high probablity that the virus has no Veracity or is it Verocity what so ever.
    A big stink was being made about how the deasease was being contained in Germany. At least before they started reopening up. But I live here and based upon my military training, unparralled training that I have recieved from 3 differnent sources, the efforts to contain the desease were so inadequate as to be a joke. We did not even shut down bakeries or the bakery sections of grocery stores. But I supposed that one of the magical properties of this virus is that it dies once it lands on the sacred German Brotchen. Or a magical property is that it dies once it lands on Tomatos,
    Look knuckleheads it is actually quite simple. A proclaimed characterisitc is this virus is that it lives on surfaces on the average for hours outside of the human body. So if the desease was real and not a military psy op the correnct model for the spread of the desease would be that of a CHEMICAL AGENT not a BIO-WEAPON!! Will the story change again?
    Therefore it goes without even needing to be said that once an organization of left wing stoic confuscian platonic amorous authoritarian leaders takes over the problem will disappear as fast as it came all by itself.
    If you are currently a serving high ranking politician or military officer who is not in on the joke you should be thinking about that.

  12. The new German rule for regional outbreaks is that every Landkreis (region with arround 150-200k people) which exceeds 50 new cases a weak per 100000 Inhabitants has to take regional containment steps, typically lockdown measures of sorts for the region. There is an exception for cointained clusters. I´m expecting to see many cointained clusteres, at least according to the judgment of regional officials that is. Also expecting to see decreasing entusiasm for broad scale testing.

  13. Some people might be wondering why I am poking holes in the coronavirus pandemic narrative when I have a motive for wanting it to succeed. Well let me start off by saying that I do not think that even if I expose the truth it is going to make a rats ass of difference. I am nothing more than an ant on a beach screaming at a tidal wave to go back.
    Ok honestly I am not sure what my motive is. Maybe I am acting in bad faith. Maybe if I were to say that at this point it seems like the right thing to do for humanity I would be lying.

  14. An under-discussed factor in public acceptance of mass testing is that a properly taken nasal swab is unpleasant. People will accept unpleasant tests when their own health is at stake. For the greater good and better epidemiological knowledge? Not so obvious. Antibody tests have the advantages of being cheaper, quicker, and less invasive – just a drop of blood IIRC. We may endup relying on them faute de mieux.

  15. Global COVID-19 case and death statistics are riddled with inconsistencies and lacunae. Their value for country to country comparisons is probably close to zero except for countries which;

    (a) test at the same rates with the same levels and types of technology, methods and competence;
    (b) use the same criteria to assign cause of death;
    (c) publish data fully and completely, meaning without suppression or alteration of data.

    The above does not exhaust the list of problems with COVID-19 data. The data of some countries might be comparable if statistical allowances are made for some or all of the above key problems. It would probably be difficult to impossible to adjust data to correct even partially for (c).

    Western data plus data from Japan, Korea and Taiwan might be broadly comparable between nations in that group after corrections for discrepancies in (a) and (b). Second world and particularly third world data is highly likely to be so incomplete from problems with (a) and (b) that is worthless for any purposes at all.

    The data from China is particularly problematic and essentially not credible. I will get to that. There is clearly no problem with Chinese medical technology, methods and competence in all of the major cities and provinces. Outlying and backward provinces might be different. However, overall the Chinese medical systems and epidemic control systems are showing full signs of being far more effective at epidemic control than those of all other nations in the world with the possible exceptions of South Korea, Taiwan, possibly Japan and maybe Australia and New Zealand.

    With Australia and New Zealand, there appears to be a combination of good public health systems, commitment to the science and early lock-downs, plus a fair degree of luck in simply being on the periphery of the world system and not as connected to the original epicenter of infection. Most of Australia’s cases came from cruise ships and from the USA it seems. Australia’s mutated strain matches that of East Coast USA. It is a more infectious strain. Our direct case infection from China seems quite limited.

    Notwithstanding the positives listed for China above there is still a strong case that Chinese statistics are not credible. We can start by looking at a Spanish paper.

    “Excess cases of influenza suggest an earlier start to the coronavirus epidemic in Spain than official figures tell us: an analysis of primary care electronic medical records from over 6 million people from Catalonia” – Ermengol Coma, Nuria Mora, Albert Prats-Uribe, Francesc Fina, Daniel Prieto-Alhambra and Manuel Medina-Peralta.

    ” Abstract Conclusions: COVID-19 cases may have been present in the Catalan population when the first imported case was reported on 25 February 2020. COVID-19 carriers may have been misclassified as influenza diagnoses in primary care, boosting community transmission before public health measures were taken. In future, the surveillance of excess influenza cases using widely available primary-care electronic medical records could help detect new outbreaks of COVID-19 or other influenza-like illness-causing pathogens. Earlier detection would allow public health responses to be initiated earlier than during the current crisis.”

    There are other data and studies suggesting that the northern hemisphere influenza season masked the appearance and rise of COVID-19 which was at that stage diagnosed as influenza or atypical influenza. There also appear to be data showing that China experienced an early atypical influenza season in the autumn and early winter of 2019. This season was of a magnitude of at least twice that of a normal flu season.

    “Take the final two months of 2019: November and December. According to the reports of the National Health Commission, the total incidence of infectious disease was 670,999 in November. This number leapt to more than 1.71 million in December. That is to say, December’s reported incidence of infectious disease is roughly a million cases over the previous month’s numbers and, please read this carefully, roughly a million cases over the monthly average across the previous three years. As can be seen, seasonal variation is relatively minor across the previous three years, and goes no way to explaining this spike in infections.” – Tiddy Smith, (claimed) Professor of Philosophy at the University of Indonesia.

    The following statistics site supports the flu spike picture for China.

    Question marks have to be raised over this flu spike. Was much of this spike really flu or was it “atypical flu” meaning in turn, in actuality, COVID-19?

    China faced real problems being the epicenter of coronavirus. Early detection, identification and control of a novel and highly infectious SARS virus strain is not easy. The West knew what was coming, or should have, and still failed to prepare and contain. One can’t deny that China faced real problems. What one can question is the honesty and commitment of the CCP to tell the truth about this virus, its impact on China and the specifics of its escape to the world, which if not aided by China was certainly not a priority of China’s to prevent.

    China hid the virus’ severity to hoard supplies. Their behavior, including mass purchases of PPE and sanitizers in other countries (including in Australia) is consistent with this thesis and in practical effect and impact. equivalent to a fifth column action against other nations, imperiling those nations. Their behavior in locking down their own country while still trying to insist that other countries still take tourists, visitors and students from China also constitutes the height of international irresponsibility and in essence an action which if not deliberate was recklessly careless and an example of the most unenlightened form of self-interest.

    China’s resistance to open, independent studies (with all interested parties involved, including China) speaks to a lack of commitment to finding the truth about this virus’s origins and its spread in all countries. Mike Pompeo’s absurd lies, without evidence and now resiled from, that China created COVID-19 in a lab, have not assisted matters in the slightest. These lies give China (the CCP) fuel for its own return propaganda.

    China’s (the CCP dictatorship’s) attempts to trade-bully Australia are predictably increasing. Unless Australia toes China’s line on everything, China threatens us with economic damage. This illustrates the kind of “friendship” the CCP has for Australia and indeed for all small nations.

    I will not be replying to propaganda for the CCP dictatorship.

  16. I suspect there are so many variables involved that comparisons are very difficult. Like genome mutation:
    … and cultural traits eg: general household sizes and is it customary for elderly parents to reside with younger families.
    … support for the elderly in the society, health care quality for the elderly and all, density of population, transport and movement etc
    Government action – measures taken to control and mitigate spread. Resources available – ad-hoc and existing to deal with influxes.
    Cultural preparedness
    All these things can vary from country to country and region to region

  17. This is amazing. Ikonoclast finds new evidence that the coronavirus was circulating in many countries in November or December last year, and somehow finds a way to make it all China’s fault – China failed to uncover the pandemic earlier! What about France, the USA, or any of the other countries where this virus was circulating – why don’t they get the blame for failing to find it?

    Ikonoclast then says that China hid the virus’ severity, on the baseless claim they did it to hoard supplies. How exactly did they “hide” the virus? First of all, they found it (when France and the US didn’t); secondly, they reported it to the WHO (when France and the US didn’t). On 21st January an editorial in China Daily made clear that it was a “threat to human health”, that it was SARS-like, and was transmissible between humans. Two days later the nation sealed off Wuhan and announced the closure to the world – what were they hiding when they did that?

    I have said this and will keep saying it: China announced repeatedly to the world that this outbreak was a global threat, repeatedly warned us, and begged us to act. Many countries took those warnings seriously and acted, but European countries and America didn’t. China broadcast this threat from the rooftops, and you didn’t act.

    Also Ikonoclast, referring to second and third world countries really shows what you think of the rest of the world. I have recommended you learn about environmental justice, and it really shows throughout all of your comments that you have no respect for low-income countries and no interest in their needs.

  18. Further to what Ikon is saying, Chinese police goons were intimidating the doctors who raised concerns about an infectious novel coronavirus in December 2019. We know that at least 8 doctors in December and early January were forced by police goons to confess to “spreading rumours and upsetting public order” when they were in fact performing a vital public and medical service that may well have saved the lived of some of their colleagues and members of the public. The doctors who were punished told their colleagues to wash their hands, wear masks and be on the lookout for pneumonia.

    As some of the whistleblower doctors later noted, early warning is actually a mandatory part of a medical professional’s duty!

    Meanwhile, on 14 January 2020, thanks to Chinese deceit, the WHO released a statement saying there is “no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus.” By that date, China knew the novel coronavirus was almost certainly highly contagious.

    We now know Xi Jinping’s fascist state was stripping the world of billions of dollars worth of PPE at the very same it was telling the world there is no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission!

    To top it all off, fascist China is now retaliating against Australia for its suggestion of an independent inquiry into Covid 19. The fascists have something, probably a lot, to hide, and they will not tolerate an open and transparent inquiry.

  19. Now you’re just lying, Hugo. On the 14th January the WHO released a warning of human-to-human transmission. For those reading this who want to know actual facts (rather than propaganda from the USA) the actual timeline of the WHO’s actions is available here.

    The stuff about China hoarding covering up the virus to hoard PPE is straight from the Department of Homeland Security. It’s a Mike Pompeo lie, and anyone repeating it is doing the US’s work to foment strife in Asia.

  20. I said:

    Meanwhile, on 14 January 2020, thanks to Chinese deceit, the WHO released a statement saying there is “no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus.

    Faustus said:

    Now you’re just lying, Hugo. On the 14th January the WHO released a warning of human-to-human transmission.

    On 14 January 20020, the WHO said:

    Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China

  21. By way of comparison Hugo, here is an early situation report on MERS from the WHO. This was released about 17 days after WHO was first notified of a novel coronavirus. Note the language is very similar to the updates released by WHO on 5th January and 12th January in China: we are working with authorities, this is likely an animal exposure, there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission, we don’t recommend travel restrictions. Just as in the China situation they are relying on reports from national governments, and they then make their own assessments.

    Note also that the first case of this virus was identified in the UK, but it did not originate there.

    In regard to the misleading tweet above, Dr. van Kerkhove made the point on twitter on 20th April that it is routine for WHO to publicize information from its local partners, and that in fact since 5th January the WHO had been recommending precautions against human-to-human transmission in its guidance. You can confirm this yourself if you check their situation reports from 5th and 12th January, where they say there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission and then link to their guidelines on novel coronaviruses, which recommend precautions against human-to-human transmission. Note that van Kerkhove announced possible human-to-human transmission at a televised press conference that was then widely reported around the world at the time.

    You’re wrong about what WHO said and did, Hugo, and wrong about what China did.

  22. “Further to what Ikon is saying, Chinese police goons were intimidating the doctors who raised concerns about an infectious novel coronavirus in December 2019”

    Thats true and the leadership took a few weeks to turn things around and realise they had made a mistake. But as I showed in the last Sandpit, the virus did not start in Wuhan in December. It started in North America in September. So its the American deep state that is the main guilty party here. Whereas the Chinese were lying for a couple of weeks its the American deep state lying to us still. Virus strain A was predominant in North America. The Wuhan strain is already a later strain. So its 9/11 all over again. Terrorism.

  23. “Meanwhile, on 14 January 2020, thanks to Chinese deceit, the WHO released a statement saying there is “no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus.”

    Any timeline that starts in Wuhan is a useless timeline. Actually its worse than useless since it is punishing the Chinese for finding the virus. The evolution of this crisis must start with strain A. Not with strain B.

  24. “The Fantasy History game is fun to watch if not informative. Britain had a public debt to GDP ratio of over 100% for the whole century after 1750: a period that corresponds to its rise to global economic hegemon.”

    See now you are trying to mess with the dates when you got it right the first time. Don’t be a weasel. You had it right the first time. The debt peaked in around 1815 when the working masses were still only on survival wages. Thereafter the government tended to run surpluses almost every year, and the population exploded leading to crowding at home and the white plague of colonists through-out the world. Had there not been the population explosion there would instead have been growing wages thanks to the surplus budgets, leading to investment funds.

    Now our banking system is so unsound one couldn’t guarantee such an outcome. Should this admission mean its okay to be an idiot? Parasitism and poor budgeting is suddenly fine? No it means we need banking reform.

    So from 1815 we had surplus budgets and massive population increase in lieu of high wages. This shows the power of running surpluses if your banking sector is sound. The British banking system wasn’t real good back then, but compared to today it was functional. Good money and banking, combined with surplus budgets, leads to prosperity, population explosion, hegemony, or some combination of the three. This is really basic economics but fractional reserve clouds the minds of the analyst. But it must be low interest loans to small business that are generated by the surpluses. It cannot be unrestricted usury. Those funds would wind up being the noose around the neck of the public if you let your bankers run amok.

  25. “There’s no known evidence that the virus is man-made. Indeed, the great preponderance of evidence so far is that it evolved naturally. The theory that it came from the Wuhan market may also be incorrect.”

    No. ALL the evidence is man-made. Get it right dummy.

  26. “There’s no known evidence that the virus is man-made.” No all the evidence is that its man-made and why did you think that it was natural in the first place? Thats just idiotic. Your claim then is that major bat virus evolution goes on in an urban environment, on a city street. No bats. No bats failing to practice social distancing and yet that is where you are claiming that all these HIV, Mers, and malarial inserts come from.

    So you are just one of these dopey people that think two aluminium planes can demolish six buildings. How many times are we going to have to go over this? Strain A is the American strain. Thats the one they can time as starting in September of last year. The Wuhan strain is strain B. Did you catch it this time slow-poke?

    You ought to not have thought it was a natural virus in the first place. They don’t sell bats in that market, despite western media propaganda. The bat species is 1000 kilometres away. There would be a trail of infection coming INTO the city. Not going out of it. So your gullibility that it was natural in the first place was the rambling thoughts of a moron. At least with the Spanish Flu the people who insist that the 1918 pandemic was natural ……. at least they THINK they can trace it back to Kansas.

    What are you going to come up with next? A new strain of armadillo flu being evolved out of Queen Street Auckland? Face it you clowns live in an endless fantasy.

  27. Graeme Bird Alert – Brendon Taylor is the latest sock puppet

    It’s interesting how Brendon Taylor has been insulting people since Hugo posted this comment, whereas I didn’t notice that happening before Hugo posted this comment.

  28. “LOL. There’s RNA sequencing and then there’s conspiracy sequencing.”

    Its only science dummy. But I like it.

    They found the RNA equivalent of genetic sequences from other viruses under study in various grade four bioweapons labs. They don’t call them bioweapons labs of course. Just like the American Defence Department doesn’t call themselves the department of war, it they truly is.

    The Indians found the human created inserts, they were pressured into withdrawing these findings. So they stamped their study as being withdrawn (but they did not withdraw it in reality) … The French took it up and verified human produced inserts. Even before the nobel prizewinner confirmed the Indian findings, Robert Boyle had traced the “genome” inserts (the RNA equivalent of the genome inserts) to various laboratories using openly published papers. The makeup of the inserts was all published. Openly published. No state secret.

    And Ikonoclast puts a link in which shows part of this, and then shows a presumed insider making stupid excuses for it!!!!!!! Of course the guilty parties are going to try and hose it down. Its like with 9/11 where they inserted all their people into popular mechanics ahead of the false flag.

  29. Ikonoclast reckons he’s got a better handle on it than the man and the laboratory that isolated the aids virus. Always we see this: Professor Luc Montagnier is too old and too prestigious to worry about being pressured or blackmailed. You have to look out for the older guys who have nothing to lose telling you what is really going on. Because the terrorists aren’t just going to confess, donate their fortunes to compensation, and then force the New York Times to publish their confessions.

    With 9/11 you had to look for what was physically impossible to unravel the full story. With this one you had to look for what was biologically impossible. There is no place on earth for bat viruses to swap spit in the showers with malaria, Mers and HIV and hope to do evolution accidentally by this random methodology. And if there was such a place it wouldn’t be a Wuhan train station.

  30. Yeah there goes a congenital moron alright. Now riddle me this: If the methodology you’ve used for the last 19 years, has lead you to believe that 2 planes took down six buildings, what was the point of the methodology?

    You cannot sort out what went on then. So you are too stupid to understand what is going on now.

  31. @Brendon Taylor

    “Get it right dummy.”

    “Did you catch it this time slow-poke?”

    “… you are just one of these dopey people”

    “Face it you clowns live in an endless fantasy.”

    “… you are too stupid to understand what is going on now.”

    Hi Graeme,

    The assumption that gratuitous abuse of readers can generally advance human understanding is an irrational conceit, and in the case of your impressive intellect, an likely example of no reconciliation for an unpersuasive life with an imminent lonely death … the years have flown and isn’t NPD orbit now starting to feel like a crap choice for generational success via resentful brow beating?

    And what a waste in the end my friend … permanently banned here, but still the cheat.

    Cut to the chase and publish your epitaph? Has been suggested IIRC.

  32. The Turkish Government version of Deutsche Welle had a very revealing look at the contreversary in the USA about reopening the economy. I was actually surprised to learn, according to this program, that many people in the USA think that Coronavirus is a hoax. They think that the motive for the hoax is to deny people the rights guaranteed to them by the US Consitution. Being the poor citizens that they are they have this completey mistaken view that the rights written about in the Constittuion are absolute and that there is nothing written in the Constitution that speaks towards limiting those rights.

  33. Its a tough one Curt, because on the one hand we don’t want to be playing the game that the terrorist oligarchy has set us up for. But on the other hand this is a real bioweapon. They tried with Sars-1, Mers, and weaponised Ebola (a whistle blower has confessed to doing gain of function studies on Ebola in 1999). These infections were deadly. But they didn’t spread very far. Sars-2 is weak but incredibly infectious. Its an insidious little bugger because its not clear that you can ever get full immunity to it. Plus it does a number of things. Viruses by their nature are feeble, and anyone with high enough vitamin D levels ought to not fear most viruses. But this one does crazy things. Like producing blood clots just when you think you have it beat. Like depleting you of zinc so quickly you lose your sense of smell. There is even talk of it knocking the iron out of the haemoglobin thus robbing you of oxygen and giving you iron poisoning. Although that could be happening due to a secondary agent like 5G.

    With this virus HCG is effective under some conditions but the oligarchy has organised a lot of stalling studies that are designed to fail. But since this virus depletes everything that you need to fight it (D, A, C, zinc, selenium) you cannot rely on the HCQ on its own and the oligarchy is trying to deny everyone the HCQ until one is too sick for the antidote to be helpful.

    Do not rely on a vaccine for this one. Because there has been reinfection. What is implied is though weak, this virus is so explosive as to its reproduction, that it outruns the antibody presence. So you can already have the antibodies in place but if you are deficient in everything you need to fight this one it will outrun the antibodies. Antibodies are only one of the methods your body uses and in this case on their own they appear to be insufficient.

    So what is the answer? The first layer of Defence is vitamin D. Another layer of defence is vitamin A. Vitamin K2 makes high levels of vitamin D safe. High levels of vitamin D makes high levels of vitamin A safe. The only option is for everyone to have permanently high levels of these three fat soluble vitamins. If you do A alone it will deplete you D. If you have high levels of D alone it may save you from the virus but it will clog up your body with ambient calcium. Only having all three high is healthy.

    An whole other series of strategies fall into play when you are actually sick. It involves zinc absorption and when appropriate blood-thinning. Thats too complicated to go into right now. But in advance its these three fat soluble vitamins that are the trick with anything the terrorists decide to foist on us.

  34. From the New York Times newsletter I get in my inbox:

    Among liberal voters, 33 percent said they were less enthusiastic than usual about voting in this year’s [presidential] election. Voter enthusiasm ran higher among conservatives; just 12 percent of those voters said they were less enthusiastic than in previous years.

    I am not surprised by this. Joe Biden is a liver-spotted geriatric who all too often speaks incoherent gibberish (check the youtube clips making fun of Old Joe’s possibly senile incoherence), has the charisma of a cardboard box, the energy of an emaciated donkey and less interesting ideas than a puddle of muddy water. Out of 100 million democrats, how is it that Old Joe ended up with the nomination? I won’t be surprised if Trump wins another term.

  35. I’ll bite. Which terrorist oligarchy has developed COVID-19? How and where did they do it? What is their objective? What are the information sources which prove this beyond reasonable doubt?

  36. Hugo,

    I don’t disagree with your characterization of Biden. But how is Trump better? He’s a fake-tanned geriatric with advancing senile dementia and sociopathic/narcissistic personality syndrome.

  37. There is only one terrorist oligarchy. There is only room for one on the planet. Its whatever network controls the central banking looting system. Usually we only get an idea of who is an insider 30 years after the fact. So I can talk about the distant past. The Rockefeller family were clearly part of this network back in the 60’s and 70’s. Thats about as far as I can go in narrowing it down to individuals. But this oligarchy is actually inevitable. If you encourage of so much as tolerate fractional reserve banking, its only a matter of time before one network swallows up everything. This practice seems so innocuous. But its the worm in the apple of civilisation. The serpent in the garden. The strongest forces in the world are insipid. They may seem weak in any given year but they work around the clock.

    Yes its a disaster. Trump is too old for a second term. And too unethical. His alleged opposition actually takes great care not to criticise him for real things and they let horrifying issues sail under the radar. To have sanctions on Iran and Venezuela during a plandemic. To be actually helping the Saudis in their insane behaviour in Yemen. To be backing the lunatic Likudniks in their land grabs. These are all unforgivable. But clearly someone important wants him to continue. So they’ve put up a man with advanced dementia to lose against him. Thats the sort of gaslighting that the oligarchy subjects us to. In the old days they were content to skim off the top in a slow and dignified way. Now they turn buildings to dust and launch bioweapons attacks on innocent people.

    One theorist identified Jimmy Goldsmith as the potential numero uno. Now you know. Thats possible. If so his tenure seems to coincide with a time of some level of saneness and rationality in foreign policy. Although there was unnecessary cruelty in the domestic front. Once Jimmy died and his daughter was assassinated a few weeks later …. From there on in the whole world has gone downhill. The leadership are not calm and patient any more. The gene pool up the top seems to have grown very thin.

  38. “Which terrorist oligarchy has developed COVID-19? How and where did they do it? ”

    This is almost public mainstream knowledge. Robert Boyle has estimated about 200 billion dollars in biowarfare funds spent between 9/11 and about 2015. These studies are hidden in plain site because they have to get all the researchers to go along with it. So they actually publish all the studies. Unreal. This sort of thing is completely illegal but the technique with this one was to make it all public. But pretend that it wasn’t biowarfare studies. So they’ll come up with all kinds of excuses because they need to dupe the researchers that they are doing something positive.

    So the locations to look at are Fort Detrick. North Carolina. Winnipeg. Wuhan. And according to Robert Boyle even one research project in Australia.

    Can you think of any reason that Fauci would outsource 5 million dollars worth of study to Wuhan, were it not to set them up to be the patsy? Sure beats me right? And I don’t think you can find another sane alternative either.

    Those communists in Beijing are nasty pieces of work. But we cannot make this a West versus China nationalistic thing. Thats just crazy. We need to make ourselves more independent of the Chinese but in a peaceful and non-confrontational way. The oligarchy spends all its time getting the little people fighting each other so their thieving can continue. Lets have none of that nastiness towards our Chinese brothers. Getting back our sovereignty needs to be a calm, sustained and cool-headed project.

    “I agree with the view that even an optimal response to the pandemic by China would have given the world only a few days more notice, and that most Western governments would have wasted that time anyway.”

    See that Strang? I’ll not make a habit of brow-beating public intellectuals again in public. I kept on whacking the good guys. Plus this fellow will always be in my good books because he wants to bring the banking system under public control, divide it into risk and non-risk sectors, and treat the non-risk side as a public amenity. This stuff is pretty close to my heart. We have to have serious financial reform to have the good life in this country. So I’ll be a lot more careful with public figures. I’ll brow-beat them privately maybe. But I want to beat up on anonymous contributors. Because if I have seen farther than others, its from standing on the heads of dwarves.

  39. Ikon:

    Of course I don’t support Trump. It is just disappointing that Biden is the Democrat’s alternative.

  40. “It is just disappointing that Biden is the Democrat’s alternative.”

    Its not happenstance Hugo. Nor the will of the people. The process of the Democrat party is a SELECTION. Not any kind of ELECTION. Thats the power of the bigshots. They are gaslighting you with a man with totally clear dementia.

  41. By the way. This fellow was really sticking his neck out when he stood up against financial sector dysfunction. In the boxing world they say “He don’t want that smoke.” He was really sticking his neck out. They want you to be a good leftist or good neoclassical or a fundamentally stupid libertarian. But what the oligarchy doesn’t want is for a calm-headed social democrat to clearly explain how things have gone wrong with finance. The bigshots don’t want that smoke. And he ought not have wanted that smoke. So there is a level of heroism that we are talking about here.

    I watch him wanting to join international agreements to solve these problems and it hurts. I want us to reach a compromise locally. It drives me crazy. I want to start the brow-beating all over again. I want to say please please please lets sort it out locally with higher gasoline taxes and higher coal royalties.

    But this fellow stuck his head out for the rest of us. He’s a true Australian. I’ll be very careful before I put him down in public again. I’ll harangue Joanne and others in private sure. But my tendency from now on will not be to browbeat public figures in public. Because in my first George Foreman internet career I kept smacking the wrong people.

    Well no more time for regrets. We have a country to save.

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