Conference news

A quick report on the Economists’ conference.

The first plenary was by Paul Ormerod on “What can economic agents learn?”. The central idea is that we need more realistic models in which people’s capacity to learn and make inferences is bounded. I’m fully in agreement with this and am actively working on a way of modelling such ideas. Ormerod didn’t give much detail about his own approach to the problem.

Deirdre McCloskey presented her ideas on statistical significance, which have already been discussed on this blog. In question time, Adrian Pagan gave a characteristically vigorous defence of the standard approach, making some good points I thought (disclosure: McCloskey’s paper includes a ranking of all the papers published in the American Economic Review according to the adequacy of their treatment of significance in published regressions. My paper with Steve Dowrick ranks a bit below average on this scale. I don’t really think it should have been included, since the main focus of the paper is on nonparametric measures of relative international income. We only threw in a regression to show the difference between our measure and the standard PPP measure).

Richard Freeman gave a talk on “Not your Father’s Union”, talking up the prospect of a resurgence of unionism based on Internet organisation. Coincidentally or otherwise, the same day I got an email from the AFL-CIO (US equivalent of the ACTU), which I’ve appended as an instance of this phenomenon. It was part of a campaign to resist Administration attacks on overtime pay, which was successful in its immediate objective of getting a favorable vote in the House of Representatives.

The higher education session was, as Derrida Derider mentioned, disgustingly civilised, with no fisticuffs between me and fellow-blogger Andrew Norton. I plan to post a full paper before long. There was at least a good crowd, filling the small room. By contrast, my paper on water reform was presented to an audience of about twenty in a theatre with a capacity of 500. Again, I’ll try to post a paper. My idea is to spend money now buying irrigators’ rights to license renewal in ten years’ time.

(AFL-CIO email follows)

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Spam

As you can see from the sidebar, my comments boxes have been extensively spammed, I assume by some sort of spambot. This could really be a threat to blogging – is anyone aware of countermeasures?

Meanwhile, please post lots of comments on different topics, to push this lowlife off my page and save me the trouble of deleting him manually.

What I didn't do on my holidays

Get into the Western Plains Zoo. We turned up yesterday afternoon, but admissions had already stopped for the day. There was a big storm overnight, and the zoo was closed for repairs today. So we drove back to Brisbane, seeing most of the northern catchments of the Murray-Darling Basin in the aftermath of excellent and widespread rain. My back of the envelope estimate suggested that several thousand GL of water had fallen in a single day, but I’m glad to be corrected on this.

I also missed the Senate Committee on Telstra which, by a surprising coincidence, held its hearings in Dubbo yesterday. I’m appearing tomorrow in Nambour, a little way north of Brisbane.

Lomborg & foreign aid

As I mentioned in my previous post, Bjorn Lomborg’s favorite argument against Kyoto is that the money it would cost would be better spent helping poor countries. This is in keeping with his pose as a leftist greenie, reluctantly convinced of the truth of the arguments of people like Julian Simon.

So it would not be surprising to find Lomborg working for a Danish government that opposed Kyoto and spent more on foreign aid. The Rasmussen govt, for which Lomborg works, does indeed oppose Kyoto. But it has also repeatedly cut foreign aid.

Lomborg is a hypocrite and a fraud. It’s as simple as that

Update Various commentators have reacted on the apparent assumption that Lomborg is a civil servant, expressing his private views in his spare time. In fact, the Danish government created an Environmental Assessment Institute with a position as director specifically for Lomborg, whose only qualifications for such a post are the political views expressed in The Sceptical Environmentalist (he has never published a refereed article on any environmental issue). Given the frequency with which he pops up around the world, I assume that his tour to Australia is being carried out as part of his official duties.

Further update 5/10 Stentor Danielson has a good discussion of the issues raised by Lomborg’s actions, and concludes, that Lomborg doesn’t care too much about the foreign aid cuts because

really thinks that reducing spending on global warming is a good thing in and of itself (only a suspicion because I haven’t read his manifesto, The Skeptical Environmentalist)

I have read it, and I agree.

Lomborg down under

Bjorn Lomborg pushes his usual anti-Kyoto line in the Oz

will be extremely expensive and will have only a negligible effect. The global cost will be large: the estimates from all macro-economic models show a cost of $US150 billion ($224 billion) to $US350 billion every year. At the same time, the effect on extreme weather will be marginal: the climate models show that Kyoto will merely postpone the temperature rise by six years from 2100 to 2106. Most global warming problems will occur in the Third World, yet these countries have many other, more serious, problems with which to contend. For the cost of Kyoto, in 2010, we could permanently solve the biggest problem in the world ö we could permanently provide clean drinking water and sanitation for every person in the world. Should we not deal with the most pressing problems for real people first?

What Lomborg doesn’t say here is that these scary estimates refer only to the case when Kyoto is implemented without emissions trading. With emissions trading, the net cost to the world would be much smaller, but Lomborg says this is politically infeasible because it would require big transfers from rich to poor countries.

In other words, we can’t implement Kyoto efficiently because we would have to give lots of money to poor countries and that’s politically impossible. But, as an alternative to implementing inefficiently we should give lots of money to poor countries.

I’ve pointed out this contradiction ad nauseam, but consistency is not a major issue for Lomborg or for his right-wing employers (the nastiest government in recent Danish history) and promoters.

Conference presentation

I’ll be presenting twice at the Economists’ conference today. First, in the morning on “Higher Education: The Last Nationalised Industry?” and then in the afternoon on “Discounting and sustainable management of the Murray-Darling system”. After that I’ll be heading back to Brisbane, stopping along the way at Dubbo zoo and the Parkes radiotelescope. Normal blogging should resume next week.

I plan to post copies of my presentations on my website next week, and to have full papers a bit later.

Monday Message Board

As another Monday rolls around, I’m in Canberra for the Economists’ Conference. So, I’m suggesting the starter question for this week’s Message Board. What are the big (unanswered or unasked) questions in economics. Feel free to offer comments on the state of other social sciences or, as always, on any topic that takes your fancy (civilised discussion and no coarse language, please).

Parallel universes

According to today’s Oz editorial,

Perhaps journalists at the ABC and Fairfax newspapers are trapped in a parallel universe where they receive and then report information that seems distorted from what the rest of us hear. This is the most charitable explanation of the reporting of United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s speech to the General Assembly during the week. According to one report, Mr Annan “attacked American foreign policy, warning it could stoke terrorism and global chaos”.

Perhaps it’s the same parallel universe as that inhabited by the Voice of America whose story on the same speech was headlined “Annan Condemns Unilateral Military Action”.

Whiteout

I’m writing this in the aftermath of a brief snowstorm, surprising since other parts of NSW have been experiencing record heat. It’s come at the wrong end of my visit to the Snowy Mountains, which has mainly been characterized by wind and rain – not good weather for skiing. Still, it’s very pleasant to look at if you’re inside with a fire. I’m staying at Lake Eucumbene, which is well below the normal snowline. This means that the snow usually melts pretty fast. On the other hand, you get to see things you wouldn’t expect higher up, like the kangaroos coming out from the shelter of the trees and nuzzling through the snow to eat the grass beneath.