Noting Howard’s prediction of victory, Ken Parish observes

It’s a little surprising really, because you would normally expect both leaders to be still trying to position themselves as underdog at this stage.

but takes the prediction, and Howard’s confident demeanour, as a sign of real confidence, presumably reflecting Liberal polling.

My inclination is to go the other way. After a week or so in which everyone was commenting on how rattled he was (I noted on September 30 that he looked like a beaten man, Howard had to (over) compensate. I suspect that, if he really had good news from the pollsters in his back pocket, he could have managed to look confident while saying it was too close too call (see Peter Beattie for a lesson on how to do this when you are an unbackable favorite). It’s easier to fake confidence if you’re saying confident things.

One thing I find hard to figure out is the impact of denunciations like this one from former blogger James Morrow in the Oz, attacking Howard from the right for his belated conversion to tax-and-spend social democracy. Howard no doubt judges that people like Morrow have “nowhere else to go” and Morrow obligingly observes

, Howard and the Coalition still represent the best chance for our finances.

But he must run the risk of losing people who, unlike Morrow, dislike Howard’s policies on the war, or refugees, or Kyoto, but have been kept onside by his reputation for fiscal restraint.

As I’ve argued a couple of times already, Howard’s massive spending in this election campaign amounts to more than simple political expediency (of course, there’s plenty of that). He has come to a fundamental change of view about what the Australian public wants from governments, one in which more and better services rank ahead of tax cuts. If he continues along the lines of the past few weeks (and, with respect to Medicare[1], the last year or so), I think we might see the emergence of a coherent position, going beyond simply spraying money at every interest group that moves.

Until recently, the best description of Howard’s position on public spending was ‘creeping residualism’. He wanted to kill off big systems of universal provision such as Medicare and public schools, and replace them with a “safety net” for the poor while everyone else got subsidies for private provision. The new position, most evident with Medicare, but also indicated in his education policy, might be called “Universalism + Choice”. In relation to health, this means ensuring universal access to bulk billing and public hospitals while also encouraging private health insurance. Similarly, for schools it means “easing the squeeze” (Sorry!) on the public system, while still providing support for private schools across the board.

Universalism + Choice has some appeal. But, done properly, it’s going to be expensive. Unless Howard stages a full-scale “promises overboard”, it’s unlikely we’ll see significant tax cuts any time soon under a re-elected Liberal government.

fn1. It’s notable that the shift in policy on Medicare coincided with Abbott’s move to health. His well-earned reputation as a headkicker and unionbasher obscures the fact that he’s given no particular evidence of attachment to economic rationalism/neoliberalism during his career. His admiration for Santamaria is worth noting in this context.

Following the Kerry manicure “parody” a day or two ago (see Josh Marshall for more details), Fox News has apparently become a fully-fledged subsidiary of The Onion. A story by “Jane Roh”[1] I read recently include a straight reference to “Communists for Kerry” and an interview with “Bush supporter Hugh G. Monument, VII”. You can read some quotes from the original, which I failed to save, at News Hounds. When I returned to the story about an hour later, it had been changed without acknowledgement, and the lead in to this part referred to “pranksters”.

Looking over the rest of the Fox site, it’s not clear which bits are intended as hoaxes, to be changed later, and which, if any, as straight news. For example there’s this story headed Scalia: Orgies Ought to Be Encouraged . The long-running gag in which Fox attempts to manufacture a scandal out of the UN Oil-for-Food program, based on documents supplied by Ahmed Chalabi, also gets a run.

If I could be bothered, I’d archive the current versions of all these stories for comparison with the versions appearing tomorrow. But I’ll leave this task to readers.

fn1. I have no idea whether this is a real person’s name, or some sort of humorous allusion to “Roe vs Wade”

I notice that Labor has firmed quite a bit at Centrebet, coming in from 3.30 to 2.55 in the past week or so. This is good news for Labor supporters, but not, I think, such good news for the view that betting markets outpredict polls and pundits. Throughout the election, the polls and pundits, while leaning to a Liberal victory have generally presented the view that this is going to be a close race. Until now, the betting markets have treated a Liberal win as a foregone conclusion.

I’d argue that the most efficient test of claims about the informational efficiency of betting markets for political events would be to test the prediction that movements in polls should follow movements in betting odds (since we know that election-day polls give reasonably good predictions of actual outcomes). For this election at least, the opposite seems to be true – the betting markets have moved into line with the polls.

We’ve all heard about the US embassy in Baghdad, with its thousands of employees, advisers in every department, and capacity to instantly countermand any decision made by the Allawi government. But until now, I’d never given much thought to its opposite number, the Iraqi embassy in Washington. It turns out to be a kind of funhouse mirror image, as indicated in this story in the Washington Post which discusses Allawi’s tour and the ghostwriting of his speech

The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and British Foreign Service officials also helped Allawi with the text and delivery of his remarks, said administration officials who were involved. The State Department and officials elsewhere in the government took the lead in booking Allawi’s interviews. Administration officials said that the Iraqi Embassy in Washington consists of just a few officials and has only a dial-up Internet connection, so was incapable of preparing for the high-profile tour.

One might think that with the IMF and World Bank located in Washington, not to mention the US Congress, the Iraqi government might feel the need for a more substantial presence, and that a few million of the billions of dollars supposedly allocated to reconstruction might have been used to establish it, if only for PR purposes. But obviously these institutions negotiate directly with the US Administration. Why talk to the monkey when the organ-grinder is right next door?

More on the speech from Mark Kleiman