I missed the announcement of the Hugo awards a couple of weeks ago. But I see that the winner for best novel was, as I predicted, Spin by Robert Charles Wilson. Well deserved, though I personally preferred Charles Stross’ Accelerando.
I’ve just finished Stross’ latest, Glasshouse which is also dazzling, but more of a real novel than Accelerando and might well be a candidate next time.
Although the shambolic performance of the Liberal party dominated the election campaign in Queensland, the longer-term implications of the result remain, paradoxically enough, quite good for the Libs. The most important long-term outcome of Saturday’s vote was that, although the One Nation vote finally disappeared (the one remaining MP is effectively an independent), the Nationals picked up almost none of it. Back in 1995, the last pre-Hanson state election, the Nationals got 26.3 per cent of the vote, well ahead of the Libs on 22.7. In 2006, the Nats got 17.3 per cent and the Libs 20.2 per cent.
The only reason the Nats won more seats than the Libs is that their vote is concentrated in a handful of rural seats west of the Great Dividing Range. There’s no reason to think they can ever go much beyond this. Of the coastal seats they held going in to the election, Gaven went back to Labor, and they suffered big swings in several of the others, making them very marginal. The only coastal area where they did at all well was the Sunshine Coast, where the special factor of the Traveston Dam ran against Labor, and the Nats regained Gympie from on-again off-again independent Elise Roberts.
In the absence of a merger, Labor is safe for another two terms. Before the Coalition can get back in, the Libs need to win enough seats to make them the senior partner.
Early and often, used to be the motto, but I was certainly glad I only had to vote once today, after one of the least edifying campaigns I can recall. I will certainly be glad to hear no more of the phrase “can’t govern Queensland”.
There’s a sense in which the prevalence of negative campaigning shouldn’t be surprising. In a situation where both sides of politics have converged on a rather watery version of social democracy, based primarily on service delivery, the only real issue is who is better qualified to deliver those services. And, a lot of the time, it’s going to be easier to demonstrate the faults of the other side in this respect than the virtures of your own.
Anyway, it’s all over bar the counting now. With luck, that’ll be finished in time for Doctor Who.
Update It was over, for all practical purposes, with heaps time to spare. The ABC computers called the result at about 6:50, and they were pretty much spot-on. Still we went through the full ritual of a complete count, post-mortem and call of the board. An undeservedly easy win for the government, but a well-deserved loss for the Coalition.
Lots more interesting stuff on the Risk and Sustainable Management Group blog including
Giving ecosystem valuation a bad name.
Wetlands, rivers and floodplains are worth around 20 times the value of agricultural production in the MDB (estimated at around $9 billion). Or 25% of the Australian GDP.$187 billion is clearly an impressive figure, considering the wetlands, rivers and floodplains of the MDB are a small part of the continent. But it is also a very suspicious one.
The River Symposium is underway in Brisbane with the theme ‘Managing rivers with climate change and expanding populations’.
John is making a presentation today (Wednesday) at 1:30 titled ‘Responding to climate change in the Murray Darling Basin’.
Reader Chris Dodds has alerted me to this PM&C discussion paper on potential private involvement in waste water. There’s a lot of interesting information, including discussion of issues like the role of third-party access, which is central to the continuing dispute between Sydney Water and Services Sydney, a would-be private entrant.
How best to implement environmental flows
The Australian on Tuesday and Wednesday mention a project just launched to answer the question of how best to use water for environmental purposes. Working out the best way to use the water will help decide how much money is required to purchase water (as a portfolio of water rights) for a given environmental target.
Alternative energy for Australia.
Today the UQ Sustainability Seminar Series, run by the Division of Environmental Engineering, hosted Frank Barram, Managing Director of Integrated Energy Services, on the topic “Applications, benefits and limitations of alternative energy in Australia. An economic perspective�.
Report – Rural Water Use and the Environment: The Role of Market Mechanisms
“They (Environmental Managers) need to enter markets to source water and to access the full range of water and water-related products on the same terms and conditions as other market participants.� XXII
Read and comment
Tony Blair’s announcement that he will resign within a year, but that he won’t say when, is one of those absurdities that seem to be inevitable in politics, a variant on the Galbraith score. There doesn’t seem to be any satisfactory way of handling this kind of situation, since most leaders want to be seen to be making their own choice to leave, but few are willing make that choice until most of their followers already want them to go.
Weekend Reflections is on again. Please comment on any topic of interest (civilised discussion and no coarse language, please). Feel free to put in contributions more lengthy than for the Monday Message Board or standard comments.
Most of us have seen the picture of Rumsfeld shaking hands with Saddam in the mid-1980s, but my recollections of the extent of Republican support for Saddam at that time have always been a bit cloudy.
This piece by Peter Galbraith, a former US ambassador to Croatia, gives chapter and verse.
Al Gore’s documentary on global warming, An Inconvenient Truth is set for Australian release on 14 Septembe. I’ve already missed a couple of opportunities to see it, first at the Australian Leadership Retreat on Hayman Island a couple of weeks ago (I went on the sunset cruise instead) and then today at RiverSymposium in Brisbane (it clashed with my presentation).
In addition to the commercial release, ACF is putting on special screenings around the country, and the Brisbane event is on Friday September 15th, 7pm sharp, film starts 7.20pm, Palace Centro, 39 James St, Fortitude Valley. For all enquires email acf@acfonline.org.au or call toll-free on 1800 332 510.
And even the Howard government is getting in on the act. Andrew Bartlett reports a screening in Parliament House put on by Greg Hunt, who is the government’s Parliamentary Secretary for the Environment.
With the denialist position in tatters, the deplorable performance of our alleged national newspaper is in sharper relief than ever, and the Oz finally seems to be copping the criticism it deserves. Andrew Bartlett mentions it, as do Ben Oquist, Grant Young , Tim Lambert and Tim Dunlop (who focuses more on the coverage of Iraq, which is also poor).
The Oz has even attracted international attention. As Crikey reports, the Scientific American has slammed it, while the reliably silly Arts and Letters Daily gives a favorable link, as does Matt Drudge. For a comprehensive demolition, you can’t go past Real Climate.
If the Australian wants to salvage any credibility as a newspaper, it needs to correct its errors on this topic fast, and acknowledge the lapse in journalistic standards represented by its reporting and editorial comment.
The polls are predicting another landslide win for Labor in Queensland, and Centrebet is even more emphatic, with Labor as 50/1 on favorites (they’ll pay out 1.02 for a Labor win, on a dollar bet). I have mixed feelings on this.
On the one hand, the Beattie government could certainly do with a shake. On the other hand, while a massive majority has resulted in a fair degree of arrogance, the response to a narrow majority may be poll-driven populism. And on the third hand (stretching the metaphor a bit), a lot of the government’s best members are in very marginal seats. For example, I think my local member Ronan Lee is very good, but it’s unbelievable that he’s managed to win Indooropilly twice – it’s nothing down at the local shops to find more BMWs than Holdens in the car park.
In any case, the outcome looks clear, so I hope the soon-to-be-reelected government will take the signs of discontent seriously and get on with investing in physical and social infrastructure.
It’s time, once again for the Monday Message Board. As usual, civilised discussion and absolutely no coarse language, please.
