The decision by Queensland coal companies to drop their bid for the track assets of Queensland Rail hands the state’s Labor party one last chance to hang on to office. There is still time to dump the economically silly and politically suicidal idea of a public float for QR, either because the Premier and Treasurer suddenly announce that circumstances have changed (as they did, going the other way, immediately after the last election) or because the Caucus decides that taking a chance on a new leadership team is preferable to the certain oblivion to which Bligh and Fraser are leading them.

According to this poll report, Labor’s primary vote has fallen to a horrendous 29 per cent. Looking at the dismal performance of Federal Labor in Queensland at the recent election, in which the LNP campaigned against Bligh rather than Gillard, there’s no reason to doubt that this would be translated into reality unless something changes. Certainly, on current policies, I’ll be preferencing the LNP ahead of Labor.

I was too clever by half with my prediction in 2007 that “the Liberal Party will never win another federal election”, but it still looks as if I might be right. My point of course, was not that Labor would be in forever[1], but that the Liberals and Nationals would be forced to merge before they could get back in. The merger has taken place in Queensland, with the result that the current Coalition includes only six members elected as Nationals. The future for Lib-Nat coalitions at state level doesn’t look much better. On current trends, NSW Labor will be wiped out so thoroughly that the Liberals will have a majority in their own right, and anything they give to the Nats will be an exercise in charity. It’s possible that a Lib-Nat coalition could get in at the forthcoming Victorian election, but unlikely, which brings me to a more interesting point.

The Labor-Green-independent coalition that has emerged at the national level is still being treated by the Canberra pundits as an aberration, but it’s becoming the norm for Labor. Labor governments depend on Green support in the ACT and Tasmania. The NT government relies on an independent and the same has been true in the past in SA, Queensland and Victoria. On current indications, the next round of state elections should see Labor beaten in NSW and Queensland (at least if they stick with Anna Bligh and privatisation). Victoria is the state where Green support is strongest, and any remotely fair electoral system would see Labor forced into coalition with the Greens. Whether the Green can actually win enough Lower House seats to bring this about remains to be seen, but Adam Bandt’s win at the national level has certainly brought this into the realm of the possible.

So, it’s entirely possible that, in a decade or two, when we talk about “the coalition”, we’ll be referring to Labor-Green, not Lib-Nat.

fn1. That said, I never anticipated anything like the fiasco by which Labor managed to turn the unassailable position they held in December 09 into the hair’s-breadth margin they nnow hold.

It’s finally over, and the outcome (if it holds) looks like the best possible. If it’s true that a country gets the government it deserves, we must all have been doing a lot of good deeds lately. Despite the efforts of both major parties to force us into a choice between focus-grouped piles of bribes and banality, we appear set for parliamentary reform, and a serious approach to climate change, tax reform and broadband policy[1].

fn1. Trying to watch the Windsor-Oakeshott press conference online was an object lesson in the inadequacies of our existing networks.

There can’t be much left to discuss. Let’s have a government already!

By the end of election night, it seemed pretty obvious that we were in for an extended period of bargaining before a government could be formed. That seemed unlikely to be an edifying process – the usual expectation would be for a massive pork-barrel auction, throwing roads, dams and other goodies at the electorates whose members were lucky enough to be pivotal. Amazingly, so far at least, the reverse has happened. In its deals with the Greens and Andrew Wilkie, Labor has been forced to dump stupid focus-group policies (like the citizens jury), take on powerful interests (like the gambling lobby) and commit to a range of process improvements. The remaining independents (particularly Oakeshott) have made similar noises, so it’s possible to hope for a government much better than either of the miserable alternatives that appeared to be on offer a couple of weeks ago.

Of course, things can still go wrong, and recent experience suggests they probably will. But, at least for one weekend, there’s a bit of hope in the air.

Given the election campaign we have endured, the only just outcome is that both sides should lose. Amazingly, this is, more or less, what happened.[1]

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