That’s the title for my latest piece in The Conversation, reposted at my Substack blog. Comment here or at Substack.
Half-time for the Albanese government
My latest Blogstack
It’s now just over 18 months since the 2022 election, so we are
halfway through the the Albanese government’s term. At this point, it
looks highly unlikely that the government will be returned with an
outright majority, whenever the next election is held. So, it’s worth
thinking about the government’s strategy, why it has apparently failed
and whether it ever had a chance of success.
Even before the 2019
election Albanese was positioning himself to challenge Shorten from the
right if Labor did badly in the Longman by-election. That didn’t happen
and Labor went into the election with all the opinion polls pointing to a
narrow win. When the result turned out to be a narrow loss, the
political class took that as an emphatic rejection of Shorten’s
ambitious program rather than the result of contingent factors
(Shorten’s lack of likeability, Bob Brown’s disastrous convoy to
Queensland, a lousy campaign etc).
Having dumped the 2019
platform, Albanese adopted a strategy based on the idea that Labor could
spend its first term demonstrating its competence in managing and
tweaking the policies inherited from the LNP, modified with a handful of
signature initiatives: the Voice, the Housing Australia Future Fund,
and a Federal ICAC (if there were any others, I’m not aware of them).
Success implementation of this strategy would, it was hoped, build
popular support for more progressive (though not radical) policies in
Labor’s second term.
The second part of this strategy has
failed comprehensively. The Voice referendum was always a long shot, but
Albanese’s mishandling of it ensured a crushing defeat. The fraudulent
nature of HAFF made it an easy target for the Greens, who forced Labor
to massively enlarged it. The issue of rental affordability now belongs
to the Greens even more than before.
Federal
ICAC has happened, but it was always going to be a damp squib. Contrary
to the hopes of some Labor supporters, we aren’t likely to see Morrison
or his ministers in ICAC’s sights, although they were discredited by
the Robodebt Royal Commission. More importantly, while avoiding (so far)
the excesses of ministers like Stuart Robert, Labor hasn’t
significantly improved on the LNP in terms of transparency or probity –
Nathan Albanese’s Chairman’s Lounge membership being a small but telling
example for the vast majority of us who fly economy and buy overpriced
airport food.
By contrast with the lack of significant new Labor
policies, we’ve seen a steady stream of reviews of LNP policy on higher
education, infrastructure, migration and the NDIS. There have been
changes to the previous government’s policies on industrial relations
and climate change, where the ferocity of opposition from the Murdoch
press and the mining sector has obscured the modesty of the actual
policies.
The government and its sympathisers in the media, notably Katharine Murphy and Michelle Grattan,
feel that they aren’t getting enough credit for this activity which
they see, in Grattan’s words as a ‘tsunami’ of policy, while the media
generally is distracted by scandals over detainees. Similarly, they
point to a bunch of small-bore measures seen as addressing the ‘cost of living’ problem, and say that doing anything more would make inflation worse.
But
this is Parliamentary Triangle bubble thinking at its worst. Reviewing
and adjusting existing policies is important and keeps ministers and
public servants busy, but it doesn’t give voters any reason to re-elect a
government, even if it has a somewhat more competent team. It’s no
surprise that the public and the media are more interested in scandals,
real or imaginary.
The framing of a decline in real wages as a
‘cost of living’ problem is inherently reactionary and has led the
government to support the explicit Reserve Bank policy of holding wages
down as a way to reduce inflation. Unsurprisingly, this hasn’t done
anything to alleviate the actual situation of wage-earners dealing with
falling real incomes.
Even worse, by maintaining the previous
government’s tax policies, Labor has chosen to deliver the regressive
components – axing the Low and Middle Income Earners tax offset and the
Stage 3 tax cuts, while Morrison retains the credit for the more
progressive Stages 1 and 2.
Coming back to the calendar, the
government will be going into election mode after the 2024-25 Budget.
That doesn’t leave much time for policy initiatives that aren’t already
well in train. The only real chance for a policy reset is a big change
to the Stage 3 tax cuts. I don’t think that will be enough to save
Labor’s majority but it would provide a basis for a genuine contest with
Dutton, which I think he would lose. Without a new tax policy, the
question isn’t whether Labor will retain a majority but whether it will
get a second term at all.
Monday Message Board
Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.
Two charts in Australia’s 2023 climate statement show we are way off track for net zero by 2050
My latest, published in The Conversation and on my Substack
Monday Message Board
Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.
Presentism and veganism: If I’m wrong, I’m wrong now and forever (crosspost from Substack)
Within pretty broad limits[1], I’m an advocate of historical ‘presentism’, that is, assessing past events and actions in the same way as those in the present, and considering history in relation to our present concerns. In particular, that implies viewing enslavers, racists and warmongers in the same light, whether they are active today or died hundreds of years ago.

Protesters pulling down a statue of slave trader Edward Colston in Bristol, England, during a demonstration organized to show solidarity with the Black Lives Matter movement on June 7, 2020.
William Want/Twitter/AFP
A common objection to this position runs along the lines:
Suppose that at some point in the future, the vast majority of people are vegans. They will judge you in the same way as you judge past enslavers, racists and warmongers. In anticipation of this, you should suspend judgement on people in the past.
I don’t buy this. There are plenty of vegans around today and I have heard and rejected their arguments. While I condemn cruel farming practices, and try to avoid buying food produced with such practices, I don’t accept that there is anything inherently wrong with killing animals for food. Animals raised for food live longer and, with humane farming practices, happier, lives than their wild counterparts [2]. They aren’t aware of their own mortality, and have no life projects that are foreclosed when they die.
Vegans reject these arguments and judge me and others harshly for making them. Perhaps they are right. And they might, in the future, convince a majority of people. But if so, members of the future vegan majority would be just as entitled to condemn my views as are vegans alive today, and to view me in the same light as they would the remaining minority of non-vegans. The fact that I would by then be a “person of my own time” is neither here nor there.
I’ll qualify this a bit. No one can think deeply about everything so, most of the time, most of us go along with whatever people around us think. So, it’s unfair to pass judgement on ordinary Confederate (or Nazi) soldiers for fighting for a cause everyone around them said was right.
But that doesn’t excuse Calhoun, or Jefferson, or Locke, any more than it excuses Hitler. These are people who had been made aware of the evil they were promoting and profiting from, and promoted it anyway. And, if the ethical case for veganism is correct, then I am wrong, regardless of the fact that, at present, most people agree with me.
fn1. As examples of those limits, I don’t want to criticise people who failed to support equal marriage at a time when hardly anyone thought about it. And going back before the modern era (say pre-1600) the difference in world views is so great that it’s hard to make any kind of judgement on most issues.
fn2. Not to mention, happier than the lives of most people.
More discussion at Substack. Based on that, I expect most of the comments here to be about the merits or otherwise of veganism, and only a few to address presentism. This reinforces the point that veganism is not an example on which anti-presentists can lean to support their case. Feel free to provide better examples.
Monday Message Board
Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.
In defence of effective altruism
With corrupt crypto king Sam Bankman-Fried as its most prominent representative, the Effective Altruism movement is not particularly popularly these days. And some other people associated with the Effective Altruism movement have bizarre and unappealing ideas. But the worst form of ad hominem argument is “someone bad asserts p, therefore p is bad”[1].
Whether under this name or not, most economic research on both welfare policy and development aid takes the premise of effective altruism for granted. The central premise of effective altruism is simple: if you want to help poor people, give them what they most need. The practical force of this premise arises from a lot of evidence showing that, in general, what poor people need most is money.

(Image generated with DALL-E)
The starting point for the premise is some version of consequentialism. It is most directly opposed to the idea that altruism should be evaluated in terms of personal virtue. To take a typical example, effective altruism would say that someone with professional skills that are highly valued in the market should not volunteer in a soup kitchen, they should spend the time working for high pay and then donate their pay to the people who are hungry. [2] And there are plenty of highly popular interpretations of personal altruism that are even less effective, such as “thoughts and prayers”.
Coming to the question: why give people money, rather than addressing their needs directly, I will quote from my book Economics in Two Lessons which presents the issue in terms of opportunity cost.
What would a desperately poor family do with some extra money? They might use it to stave off immediate disaster, buying urgently needed food or medical attention for sick children. On they other hand, they could put the money towards school fees for the children, or save up for a piece of capital like a sewing machine or mobile phone that would increase the family’s earning power.
The poor family is faced with the reality of opportunity cost. Improved living standards in the future come at the cost of present suffering, perhaps even starvation and death. Whether or not their judgements are the same as we would make, they are in the best possible position to make them.
There are plenty of qualifications to make here. Maybe the most important is that family heads (commonly men) may make decisions that are more in their own interests than in those of the family as a whole. Giving money to mothers is often more effective.
And sometimes delivering aid in kind is the only way to stop corrupt officials stealing it along the way.
In addition, there are some kinds of aid (local public goods) that can’t be given on a household basis. If people in a village don’t have clean drinking water, then the solution may be a well that everyone can use.
Nevertheless, whenever anyone advocates a policy on the basis that it will help poor people it is always worth asking: wouldn’t it be better to just send money?
[1] Ad hominem arguments aren’t always bad, as I’ve discussed before. If someone is presenting evidence on a factual issue, rather than a logical syllogism, it’s necessary to ask whether you are getting all the facts, or just those that suit the person’s own position .
[2} Contrary to the SBF example, it doesn’t suggest stealing money to buy an island in the Bahamas, then covering up by giving some of the loot away
Monday Message Board
Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.
Monday Message Board
Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.
