Sandpit

A new sandpit for long side discussions, conspiracy theories, idees fixes and so on.

To be clear, the sandpit is for regular commenters to pursue points that distract from regular discussion, including conspiracy-theoretic takes on the issues at hand. It’s not meant as a forum for visiting conspiracy theorists, or trolls posing as such.

263 thoughts on “Sandpit

  1. Here is some information relating to a recent study. But all of the studies that follow your mandated methodology, to better suit your mood, will be horribly flawed. And we can see why. From India Today:

    “Chinese study finds hydroxychloroquine useful in controlling Covid mortality

    “……… a new Chinese research has reported that the anti-malarial drug brought down mortality rates significantly among critical coronavirus patients.”

    Amongst CRITICAL coronavirus patients. In other words the patient didn’t have access to things like high-dose vitamin D and HCQ at the first sign of a throat tickle. They waited until the patient was almost dead and only then gave them the HCQ!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    So you are almost dead (ie “critical”) and only then do you get the treatment. And since this drug has some level of toxicity and you need a sane patient to gauge what dosage is right for them; leaving it until the patient is almost dead pre-supposes a pretty uncaring approach to medical support. In other words the people running the experiment don’t really care whether the patient lives or dies.

    And yet they STILL managed to get pretty good results. But if these guys were loaded up on vitamin D and had the HCQ in the fridge they wouldn’t be there to experiment upon. This is why your approach to evidence is lunacy. It can never work. The patient wouldn’t even be there in the first place were they not denied sane treatment.

  2. “Mostly, I stay isolated and wash in a food-safe detergent in a tub everything delivered to the house that can be washed.”

    I don’t blame you. I’d be besides myself with fear if I had a mental disorder that precluded any preparation or treatment. I wouldn’t know what to do if I wasn’t able to assess evidence, thus sharing your handicap. But I’m relatively safe even without access to HCQ. I’ve got all six stages of viral infection pretty much covered. A couple of years ago I got a serious lung infection. That is not something that anyone wants to go through. It could have even been a weaker Sars-1 holdover.

    So yes; either change your epistemology or stay in the house. You are right to be afraid. Very afraid.

  3. CRS,

    I’d already checked out your slim evidence sites. The monkey cells study was (a) ex-vivo and (b) not related to human lung cells.The differences are great. The doctor you mention was (kindly) run out of town as a quack.

    I take your repeated inability to answer basic questions properly and to stop filibustering and abusing as comprehensive and definitive evidence of your complete lack of real knowledge on the topic.

    The fact that you need to keep coming back as a sock-puppet to peddle disinformation and abuse people says much about you, and none of it good.

  4. So you admit outright you didn’t listen to a thing Vladimir said. Presented with evidence you merely found an excuse not to listen to it.

    Run out of town as a quack hey? Supposing that story is true? And you don’t see this as OBVIOUS TREATMENT DENIAL. Yes doctors face de-registration or worse if they don’t participate in this universal negligence. You don’t know what evidence is. Thats a big handicap to overcome at this late stage in your life.

    Any evidence that is presented to you, will be dismissed because of the effect of the very same terrorists regime of ruthless treatment denial that should be obvious to anyone.

    But if you want to have another crack at the very topic of evidence …….. to know more about the subject you could go with the video of Dr Roby Mitchell and Dr Greg Emerson. The two hour video goes through everything. They don’t mention HCQ at any time, but thats neither here nor there. Its not possible to assess evidence if you live in total ignorance of the basics of the subject to hand.

  5. So lets go over Vladimir again. Under any circumstances you aren’t going to listen to him are you. You dismissed him as a quack BECAUSE OF the campaign of ruthless treatment denial and for no other reason.

    You haven’t presented a scintilla of evidence for your claims. Yet when I try and educate you, you dismiss the material.

  6. Where is your evidence that the HCQ will not help in any of the six necessary areas of viral infection you need to account for? You can’t answer that if you aren’t interested in the actual subject of virology. I haven’t seen anything that shows you understand the problem at all. Why do we need zinc in the cell? Don’t know. Dog ate your homework. Why is it so hard to get that zinc into the cell. What is the iodine for. The selenium. Which stage of infection is vitamin D most critical for. Don’t know don’t care give me a mindless study where all the information has been deep-sixed for the sake of statistics.

  7. What counts here is convergent evidence. Evidence doesn’t really amount to much unless it begins to converge. So if you dismiss the evidence sequentially you’ll never get anywhere. If you find evidence from the laboratory and it converges with what you know about human physiology and then that converges with the case study evidence, you’ve really got something going. But then you dismiss all three types of evidence SEQUENTIALLY before you can possibly know anything about the subject.

    We couldn’t have had any kind of malaria treatment, or treatment for anything else, or indeed any human progress if we took your epistemology on board; mentally handicapped and wrong that it obviously is.

    We went over this before. How could skydiving be developed using your leftist mood-based requirements? It couldn’t. You really have no idea. You don’t understand epistemology on even the most crude level and you are a fool to boot.

  8. So just more idiocy. My guess is that you will be on blood pressure pills. Which means less blood and oxygen to the brain. Which means you aren’t in a position to repair your epistemological error.

    Evidence is data broadly considered, related to a specific hypothesis, by a process of human reason, and in the context of three or more competing hypotheses. Rightful certitude can only come from convergent evidence.

    Whereas in your state of dementia you think evidence is to be narrowly considered, not relating to anything in particular, and no human reason need be given a look-in. This is a pretty heavy handicap to overcome. Not one which can reasonably be attempted under conditions of diminished blood circulation.

  9. I found the exact same words “rightful cerititude can only come from convergent evidence” in comment 14 of this Jo Nova blogpost back in 2010. That comment was by Graeme Bird.

    JQ, you have a bird infestation. I say you take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure.

  10. “Influenza A virus subtype H7N7 (A/H7N7) is a subtype of Influenza A virus, a genus of Orthomyxovirus, the viruses responsible for influenza. Highly pathogenic strains (HPAI) and low pathogenic strains (LPAI) exist. H7N7 can infect humans, birds, pigs, seals, and horses in the wild; and has infected mice in laboratory studies. This unusual zoonotic potential represents a pandemic threat.” – Wikipedia.

  11. It never rains but it pours. The terrorists aint through with us yet. Neither is mother nature. So its important to learn how to cope with viruses. Plus its important to know how to get your circulation healthy so you don’t need blood pressure pills. Since dementia is the next thing down the track for long-run blood pressure pill abusers. Which means someone else is going to have to wipe your butt. Meaning the rest of us will have to pay for this largesse.

    Now I hope we will pay for this feminine attention. And I hope we will do so gladly. But there is the issue of personal responsibility. There is a big cost to be borne for the hatred of science and the rebellion against logos.

    One of the positives of this terrorist attack is that its forced a lot of us to learn how to cope with viruses more generally. Its a good thing when you accumulate the knowledge to be able to avoid the common cold. Thats a terrific breakthrough.

  12. Basic kindergarten level epistemology.

    I don’t remember being taught anything about epistemology at kindergarten.

  13. Zulus you think? Ashanti?

    Since you ask me, I will answer: No, I wasn’t thinking either of those things.

  14. Yes J-D thats more than evident. Perhaps you were playing hooky.

    Soon as I can get a really comfortable washable mask I shall join you mask-wearers but not ideologically. Surely you people would want to have taken the time to learn how to prepare for any virus and successfully for most? But no. All your thinking is bubble thinking.

    Lewandowsky? Who do the Catholics use as their patron saint of stupid people? Would be good to know to avoid cursing, or breaking any commandments.

  15. Perhaps you were playing hooky.

    I repeatedly avoided going to afternoon sport when I was in high school, but we didn’t call it ‘playing hooky’ (I had the idea that was an Americanism, but I’ve never checked), we called it ‘jigging school’. I never jigged school from kindergarten, though.

    Lewandowsky?

    Sorry, I’m not following you. Are you trying to guess my surname? That’s a question I’m not going to answer.

    Who do the Catholics use as their patron saint of stupid people? Would be good to know to avoid cursing, or breaking any commandments.

    Duckduckgo found me a list of patron saints at catholic.org, but the list of things they have patron saints for doesn’t include stupid people. (It doesn’t include intelligence, either.)

  16. Did anyone notice the nuclear attack in Beirut? Seems to have passed people by that one.

  17. Who was bombing Lebanon during the same time period? Who has been flying over that area for the last two months? Who has been bombing Syria and Iraq recently? Who identified this Christian area as a venue for Iranian activity?

    If you knew what was going on you’d recognise the foolishness of the question. Its the Fula tribe of the Niger-Congo of course. Once you see their work, you are going to know it anywhere. Their leader from South Bend Indiana, whose family comes from Poland, has been subject to persistent protests lately. The tail wags the dog. The Yahoo takes care of business in his usual way. These people have a long history of using nukes ruthlessly in the field. In Homs. In Bali. Many examples.

  18. Nukes? A large quantity of ammonium nitrate exploded in Beirut. Speaking of South Bend, I think CRS has finally gone round the bend. What IS he talking about?

    More concerning news for Newcastle residents. COVID-19 plus this:

    “The Orica plant is located just 3km from Newcastle’s CBD and houses between 6000 and 12,000 tonnes of ammonium nitrate.”

    https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/fears-for-nsw-residents-living-near-ammonium-stockpiles-after-beirut-blast/news-story/8ea2da81960b16a59fcdeff81a67ac01

  19. I should note that the Beirut explosion reportedly involved 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate. The Orica plant in Newcastle reportedly stores between 6000 and 12,000 tonnes of ammonium nitrate, “3 km from Newcastle’s CBD and houses.” See my above post.

  20. Are you saying we transport fertiliser around in readily explosive form? That what you are telling me? Who snuck in and soaked it with diesel to help put it into its explosive form?

    You saw the fireworks to keep the fertiliser burning. You saw the fertiliser burning. And you saw the nuclear explosion deep in the water totally separate to that. The fertiliser was just the patsy. And now you are witnessing the media blackout.

    No we don’t transport fertiliser around in such an activated form.

  21. “I should note that the Beirut explosion reportedly involved 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate. The Orica plant in Newcastle reportedly stores between 6000 and 12,000 tonnes of ammonium nitrate, “3 km from Newcastle’s CBD and houses.” See my above post.”

    The danger is not the fertiliser. Fertiliser is harmless. The danger is that its there to be used as an excuse for gullible people. On the other hand even if it wasn’t there, someone could say it was there, and you would believe that also. Coal has more potential chemical energy than either TNT or this fertiliser. Three tonnes or whatever someone wants to type (you’ll believe it) isn’t that much energy to deal with. This was a full-scale nuke. Not even a micro.

    Now await the near total silence of the media. You will never notice the deaths of people who show up with a geiger counter.

  22. Here we go again. So everything we knew about safe chemical handling is now out the window because a certain tribe of people has done something wrong. But they never do anything wrong ever so how do you square that circle?

    So now we retrospectively rewrite all chemistry and history so that Orica has effectively been storing an unstable Hiroshima-like tinder-box of explosives, right close to town. And they didn’t even know it. Thats funny isn’t it? They didn’t know about chemistry right until the terrorists set off a nuclear weapon in 2020 and now you have to change retrospectively chemistry, physics and chemicals-handling, to accommodate them.

    One country was openly bombing Lebanon leading up to that nuclear attack. Bombing Lebanon and carrying out operations in Syria, Iraq, Iran and everywhere else. No suspicion then right? There isn’t a whole lot of nuclear powers in the area.

  23. “Exposed. Iranian and Hezbollah accurate missile site”.

    Stick that in your duckduckgo to see who nuked Beirut, exact same area. We already know who was bombing Lebanon and its the same people.

  24. CRS continues with his florid paranoid delusions. He really does need to be banned from here and seek treatment.

    Ammonium nitrate does not have to be mixed with diesel/fuel oil to be explosive. Large stores of ammonium nitrate can support fire (by providing oxygen) and then cause an explosion. No conventional detonator and no fuel oil is needed but an initial fire source is needed. “Large stockpiles of the material can also be a major fire risk due to their supporting oxidation, a situation which can easily escalate to detonation. Explosions are not uncommon…” – Wikipedia.

    “It is known that ammonium nitrate decomposes exothermically when heated to form nitrous oxide and water. This paper [1] notes that the irreversible decomposition of ammonium nitrate occurs at the temperature range of 230−260 ∘C

    NH4NO3−→−−−−t>230∘CN2O+2H2O

    They also further noted that beyond 280 ∘C, NH4NO3 is capable of rapid, self-accelerating decomposition (to the point of detonation). But at the detonation temperature… ammonium nitrate fully decomposes to nitrogen, oxygen and water releasing a tremendous amount of energy.

    2NH4NO3−→td2N2+O2+4H2O” – Stack exchange.

    The pressure wave from the bomb, looking like white vapor, is completely consistent with the vast production of steam vapor. Nitrogen oxides might have been responsible for the red-brown plume of smoke afterwards though there are other possibilities. The fire which caused ignition could have been accidental or deliberately lit. More evidence is needed.

    There was burning, then an initial detonation in the brown-black smoke. The final stupendous detonation was delayed after that and was not accompanied by any bright flash which would have accompanied even a mini-nuke detonation. If it was a mini-nuke there are many parties who would benefit from proving that and revealing it. That whole arena of interests could not be prevented from outing the evidential proof. In any case, the blast behavior was not nuclear but more like a mimic of a daisy cutter or MOAB (Massive Ordnance Air Blast).

  25. I saw the footage. And so did you.

    That seems strange, because I have absolutely no recollection of having seen any such footage. What footage did I see (and when and where)? Was it the same as the footage you saw? Is that footage still available to be seen?

  26. This footage shows the preceding fire and at least two initial blasts (very large by “normal” standards) which preceded the massive final blast.

    All the evidence thus far suggest a massive chemical blast fully explained by the known chemistry and behaviors of ammonium nitrate in massive stores subjected to fire. There is no need, and no evidence yet, for theories based around nuclear devices.

  27. So everything we knew about safe chemical handling is now out the window because a certain tribe of people has done something wrong. But they never do anything wrong ever so how do you square that circle?

    I’ve heard before of governments using nuclear weapons, but I’ve never heard before of tribes using nuclear weapons.

  28. Yup, totally agree Iko. What’s more, notice the browny-red(ish) smoke immediately after the detonation? That’s NO2 and anyone who knows anything about detonating AN knew straight away (without even being told what it was) that it was an AN blast.

  29. Yes we have many coal dust, flour dust and Ammonium nitrate fires and explosions. But they don’t look like nuclear attacks and they don’t look like ANFO explosions. In fact we have had so many ammonium nitrate explosions that if they looked like the Beirut one we would sure know about it.

    Yes we saw the explosions that the media has referred to as “fireworks.” So thats deeply suspicious right there. It could be that the Israelis, already bombing Lebanon, considered the fertiliser too good an opportunity to let go without sabotage.

    I like your theory. Its a beautiful theory. When I read your theory I said to myself … thats a fantastic theory. The problem I have with your theory is that its the only one you have. When the scientific minimum is three. Israel by its own admission had a problem with that self-same area. Israel was bombing Lebanon and a series of explosions had been going on in Iran, some of which Israel had admitted to.

    Coincidence? Or Coencidence? Eventually this coincidence theory has to bottom out.

  30. “Yup, totally agree Iko. What’s more, notice the browny-red(ish) smoke immediately after the detonation? That’s NO2 and anyone who knows anything about detonating AN knew straight away (without even being told what it was) that it was an AN blast.”

    Completely unscientific since only one hypothesis is being considered. No-one is claiming that the fertiliser wasn’t there. No-one is claiming that the fertiliser wasn’t burning. The alternative hypotheses are nowhere to be seen in your mind.

    So you would have to say its just a lucky break for the Israelis hey? A fortunate series of events that destroyed the very area that the Israelis had in their crosshairs? Coincidence? Or Coencidence? What are the chances hey? Well they are the chosen people. We expect them to get lucky.

  31. Note that the MOAB bomb is strong enough to clear the trees but doesn’t produce a crater. Not even on the soft forest floor. Whereas generally speaking you need either an underground bomb, or a nuke to produce craters in the concrete. Since even with a very powerful conventional explosion most of the force is directed sideways and upwards.

    So the craters that these suspicious explosions leave (Homs, Bali 2002, Beirut 83, Beirut 2020) are not helped by your MOAB example. MOAB doesn’t explain them. In fact your MOAB example is evidence for the other competing hypotheses.

    This is what happens when you take the unscientific approach of only having one hypothesis in mind. You miss everything.

    Basic epistemology fail.

  32. I’ve said elsewhere the Israelis would be sleeping better from this and that’s not suggesting they were involved – I have no idea. All I’m saying is the primary blast was an AN detonation – there’s a fair bit of evidence to support that, but as for everything else, it’s all speculation.

  33. You don’t have any evidence for that Troy. Red smoke is only evidence that the AN was PRESENT. Which no-one is disputing.

    To explain that crater we need to propose a conventional bomb planted lower than the warehouse. Or a nuclear bomb planted in the warehouse. Or a nuclear bomb planted lower down. We can’t explain a crater by proposing a conventional industrial explosion above surface level. Even if we were to say that a pure ANFO explosion could do this, which it cannot; these craters never happen except in these deeply suspicious occurrences. (Like when Harriri was assassinated for example.)

    You are not proposing a pure ANFO explosion are you? Well you are two stages away from explaining a crater like that. Or indeed the extreme power of the explosion, unbecoming for an industrial accident. Even an industrial accident involving AN which we have had many examples for the comparison, cannot explain a big crater.

  34. The problem I have with your theory is that its the only one you have. When the scientific minimum is three.

    How did you find out about this scientific minimum?

  35. We can’t explain a crater by proposing a conventional industrial explosion above surface level.

    Why not?

  36. Ikon its because there are many alternative explanations to any phenomenon that you don’t know about. So that therefore if you only go for one you are holding your mind as a superstitious truth-probing entity and therefore rejecting reason. If you are claiming only two potential explanations you are in error right from the start. But from a procedural point of view you get into the Popperian error, where you have the null hypothesis and the contesting hypothesis, which means you prejudice the favoured hypothesis. You get into the error of conjectures and refutations as in the very bad book “Conjectures and Refutations” which is a cookie-cutter approach to truth-seeking with no successes to its name.

    Troy you saw the symmetrical shape of the water just before it evaporated right? You know the centre of that explosion was lower down? Surely? Even with similar looking gigantic conventional explosions, they can never have that kind of pure symmetry if above ground. So we know the big explosion wasn’t above ground. We see the crater, we see the shape. We infer the epicentre.

  37. Daisy cutters are dropped via parachutes and detonated above ground: even above the canopy I presume. A large conventional explosion on the ground will cause a crater, even through concrete. Physics suggests an initial pressure wave pushing out at X pascals into the atmosphere also puts the some pressure on the ground. Most ground is not completely in-compressible (non-compactible). Pressure at a vector angle from ground blast center will push ground down and out and create a slip or sheer zone. The rest of the sequence writes itself out to a crater for people who can think scientifically, logically and sequentially.

    Click to access 57215d90f7c666652be8e8402d6b961f5a65.pdf

    It’s actually (not) astonishing how little thought CSR puts into his “scientific” hypotheses.

    BTW, I didn’t presume a fire wasn’t set by hostile forces. It might have been. I didn’t presume priming conventional explosions were not set to sabotage the store. They might have been. But I did not advance further hypotheticals before more data came in. I did say there appeared to be no evidence of a (mini-)nuclear explosion. In fact that theory seems wildly implausible to me though perhaps not entirely impossible. Some people rush on ahead with all sorts of wild theories. Others are more measured when it’s a real event killing real people and potentially stirring up further trouble. I see no reason to go beyond the simplest possible explanation (Occam’s razor) until more evidence arises, if it does.

  38. “A large conventional explosion on the ground will cause a crater,”

    No it won’t. Certainly not on the concrete. These guys might be making excuses for Oklahoma. We would want to see the context of what they are trying to scam us about. Lets see them do the empirical exercise rather than make the false claims. Did they actually go out with some TNT and suspend it above the ground like in a truck, or a building with foundations? I don’t think they did. I think they just started typing. Lets not forget that you aren’t alleging a deliberate ANFO explosion. You are alleging serendipity via some of the storage getting wet or some such degradation.

    “The numerical model”

    There is the admission right there. They are painting a picture and not talking about an experiment. Maths-magic dupery 101.

  39. “Why not?”

    J-D you’ve seen those keystones in arches in buildings right? Because the arch directs the force of the weight above into the keystone you are relying on the immense ability of rock or bricks to withstand compression. So yes you might get some sort of crater in the soft soil. But its exceptionally difficult to make a crater in the concrete with a bomb suspended above the ground (like in a truck bomb, or above the foundation of buildings) because of the compression capacity of concrete and asphalt and so forth.

    But a nuke comes in and vaporises things. Some of these nukes are really small and their fireball, which evaporates everything, may be only a three metres across. When they assassinated the Lebanese leader and blamed Syria the investigators were thinking the road must have been booby trapped with a below ground bomb. They thought this because of the crater. Because they rule out a micro-nuke and they rule out Israel. But then if the deep state or Israel nukes enough people, and leaves enough craters, we just kind of get used to it.

  40. wow Classic doesn’t know what a nuclear explosion looks like, and thinks Bali was a nuke? Truly legendary.

  41. Sure I know what a small nuke looks like when planted deep in the water and its flash shielded. It looks just like what you saw.

    Was hiroshima planted in the water? Was it shielded? You want to check your assumptions. We were lucky to catch them out this time with footage they didn’t themselves manufacture.

  42. But its exceptionally difficult to make a crater in the concrete with a bomb suspended above the ground (like in a truck bomb, or above the foundation of buildings) because of the compression capacity of concrete and asphalt and so forth.

    Is it exceptionally difficult but possible, or is it impossible?

  43. I think impossible. But you know. There may be special circumstances. Something we don’t know about the road building in Bali. Or water degradation in Homs. Or iron and rock spontaneously going molten in New York.

    Whatever the special circumstances involved they always seem to show up only under deeply suspicious undertakings. But this is alleged as an industrial disaster. As a situation where some of the ammonium nitrate is degraded. And yet people are acting likes its normal that the entire load has acted superior to a purposeful coherent bomb. That just crippled the home base of Hezbollah. One of the few entities that can threaten the suspects.

    The Israelis just took out most of Lebanon’s grain storage and 60% of its wharf import capacity. This is no time to be searching around for improbable ideas to get them off the hook.

  44. Just stop!

    I learn something here everyday – thany you all – and at 145+ your massive brains maybe deployed saving the world, not stroking your intelligence fighting, as Ikon says:

    ” CRS continues with his florid paranoid delusions. He really does need to be banned from here and seek treatment.”

    Breathe. Read another thread. Write. Post.

    Stop the sandstorm please.

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